Presented by Paul J. Taillie (University of Florida), et al. on 24 September 2019 at Blue Carbon Regional Workshop, Merida, Yucatan.

1. Mangrove Mortality Resulting
from the 2017 Atlantic Mega
Hurricane Season
Paul J. Taillie – University of Florida
Rosa Roman-Cuesta – CiFOR
Miguel Cifuentas-Jara – CATIE
Lola Fatoyinbo – NASA
David Lagomasino – NASA
Ben Poulter - NASA

2. Credit: NASA

3. 0
5/10yr
Hurricane frequency over the last century

4. Hurricanes and Climate Change
I. All storm frequency
II. Cat 4 and 5 frequency
III. Maximum intensity
IV. Precipitation rate
IPCC AR5

5. Cumulative Effects Across Storms
What?
Mangrove damage and mortality
When?
2009-2017
Where?
Western Atlantic Mangroves
How?
Satellite imagery from multiple sensors
Integration with structural data
Logistic regression to relate storm and forest characteristics

6. Mangrove Damage and Mortality

7. Hurricane Tracks
National Hurricane Center

8. Hurricane-affected Total Land Area

9. Hurricane Season Summaries
Year Total
Storms
Hurricanes Affected Land Area (ha)
2009 5 2 7,909,676
2010 13 9 45,412,729
2011 20 5 32,654,849
2012 19 8 65,715,473
2013 15 2 13,873,143
2014 9 4 4,512,007
2015 8 4 5,813,535
2016 10 5 44,438,907
2017 17 10 88,406,089

10. Mangrove Map (Bunting et al. 2018)

11. Affected Mangroves

12. Mangrove Damage and Mortality

13. Non-linear Mangrove Mortality

14. Wind Speed Threshold

15. South Florida Turks and Caicos
Intensity
Mangrove
Mortality

16. Predictors of Mangrove Damage
Estimate 95% CI
Max Wind 1.91 2.24, 1.59
Max Wind2 0.02 0.22, -0.18
Rain 0.39 0.48, 0.29
StormHist1 -0.88 -0.25, -1.49
StormHist2 -0.35 0.29, -0.97
Canopy Height 0.35 0.51, 0.19
Wind Duration 0.12 0.33, -0.09

17. Mangroves and Hurricanes
Simard et al. 2019

18. 0
5/10yr
Hurricane frequency over the last century

19. >16 months after Irma some locations show little signs of recovery

20. Questions?
Contact:
University of Florida
paultaillie@gmail.com