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Is Brazil going to meet its deforestation and climate targets?

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Presented by Raoni Rajão (professor de Estudos Sociais da Ciência do Departamento de Engenharia de Produção da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)) at "Informações, análises e ferramentas para apoiar programas subnacionais de REDD+ no Brasil" on 17 December 2020

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Is Brazil going to meet its deforestation and climate targets?

  1. 1. Is Brazil going to meet its deforestation and climate targets? Prof. Raoni Rajão*
  2. 2. Is Brazil’s NDC ambitious?
  3. 3. Is Brazil’s NDC ambitious? Copenhagen’s NAMA Paris’ NDC Indicative NDC
  4. 4. Policy Scenarios and the NDC  Integrated modeling:  Land Use Scenarios  Model of Optimization of Mitigation Options in industry and energy sector
  5. 5. Policy Scenarios and the NDC
  6. 6. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 GtCO2 Governança Forte AFOLU Energia Policy Scenarios and the NDC Strong Governance
  7. 7. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 GtCO2 Governança Intermediária AFOLU Energia Policy Scenarios and the NDC Intermediary Governance (BAU)
  8. 8. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 GtCO2 Governança Fraca AFOLU Energia Policy Scenarios and the NDC Weak Governance (BAU)
  9. 9. Going off-track 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 MilKm2 Amazon (PRODES) Amazonia (Gov. Intermediária) Amazônia (Gov. Forte) Amazônia (Gov. Fraca)
  10. 10. Conclusion  Deforestation control is at the basis of Brazil’s NDC  Contribution Amazonian states is key  If the PNMC goal is met (Gov. Brazil may sell +400 MtCO2e as ITMOs in 2025  More than 14 thousand km2 of deforestation in the Amazon:  Impossible goal of 2025 and 2030 without buying ITMOs from other countries (Cost of + 5 tri USD)  PRODES 2019 indicates displacement of Gov. intermediate to weak  Uncontrolled deforestation implies costs for industry/energy or inability to meet climate targets
  11. 11. Thanks for your attention rajao@ufmg.br

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