Presented by Raoni Rajão (professor de Estudos Sociais da Ciência do Departamento de Engenharia de Produção da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)) at "Informações, análises e ferramentas para apoiar programas subnacionais de REDD+ no Brasil" on 17 December 2020

1. Is Brazil going to meet its
deforestation and climate targets?
Prof. Raoni Rajão*

2. Is Brazil’s NDC ambitious?

3. Is Brazil’s NDC ambitious?
Copenhagen’s NAMA
Paris’ NDC
Indicative NDC

4. Policy Scenarios and the NDC
 Integrated
modeling:
 Land Use
Scenarios
 Model of
Optimization of
Mitigation
Options in
industry and
energy sector

5. Policy Scenarios and the NDC

6. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
GtCO2
Governança Forte
AFOLU Energia
Policy Scenarios and the NDC
Strong Governance

7. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
GtCO2
Governança Intermediária
AFOLU Energia
Policy Scenarios and the NDC
Intermediary Governance (BAU)

8. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
GtCO2
Governança Fraca
AFOLU Energia
Policy Scenarios and the NDC
Weak Governance (BAU)

9. Going off-track
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
MilKm2
Amazon (PRODES) Amazonia (Gov. Intermediária)
Amazônia (Gov. Forte) Amazônia (Gov. Fraca)

10. Conclusion
 Deforestation control is at the basis of Brazil’s NDC
 Contribution Amazonian states is key
 If the PNMC goal is met (Gov. Brazil may sell +400 MtCO2e
as ITMOs in 2025
 More than 14 thousand km2 of deforestation in the
Amazon:
 Impossible goal of 2025 and 2030 without buying ITMOs from
other countries (Cost of + 5 tri USD)
 PRODES 2019 indicates displacement of Gov.
intermediate to weak
 Uncontrolled deforestation implies costs for
industry/energy or inability to meet climate targets

11. Thanks for your attention
rajao@ufmg.br