The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.
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6 icrisat progress 2015 gfsf extended team meeting-rome 25-28 may
1. Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight @ ICRISAT
Progress update of 2015 deliverables
S Nedumaran
Research Program – Markets, Institutions ad Policies
ICRISAT | India
26 May 2015
2. ICRISAT is one among 5 CG center
started GFP
Multidisciplinary team created
and institutionalized (14 member
team)
Supporting priority setting,
foresight and scenarios analysis
for CRP DC and GL
Collaboration with other CRPs and
Global Projects like AgMIP (data
sharing, model enhancement,
capacity building)
Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight @ ICRISAT
Multi-disciplinary team @ ICRISAT
3. Achievements in GFSF @ ICRISAT
Crop model improvement completed – Sorghum, Groundnut and
Chickpeas
Abiotic stress tolerant virtual cultivars evaluated for Sorghum and
Groundnuts
Technology reports for ICRISAT mandate crops
Contributed to CRP GL and DC priority setting and justifying country
focus
Contributed subnational level data for SPAM model improvement
Capacity building:
1 training program on foresight model and its application for ESA
economists
1 DSSAT crop model training conducted for CG and NARS partners
4. Publications:
• 5 Journal articles (ISI journal)
• 1 Book Chapter
• 3 ICRISAT working/discussion paper
Data/tools management
• Populating the Dataverse with socio-economic
and experimental data -
http://dataverse.icrisat.org/
• Spatial Tool: http://spatial-tools.icrisat.ac.in/
6. Millets disaggregation IMPACT
SPAM (2005) used to estimate the production share of
pearl millets and small millets (other millets)
Validating the production shares – with national statistics
and experts knowledge
7. Modification of the CERES-Pearl millet
model
Model deficiencies in the default version:
Did not simulate heat tolerance of pearl millet,
i.e., changes in seed set at high temperatures
Underestimated yields at low plant density or
wider row-spacing
Underestimated leaf area index of tillers
Overestimated yield loss when drought stressed
during panicle initiation to flowering or during
flowering to seed-filling stages
Overestimated harvest index under extended
day length conditions
8. Relationship of seed set with mean air
temperature in pearl millet
Source: Gupta et al. (2015)
9. Code and parameter changes in the model
All relationships determining heat tolerance in millet incorporated
Model code changed for better estimation of light extinction
coefficient (LIFAC) to improve model response to plant population
and row spacing
An additional genetic coefficient (GT) was added and other related
changes made to improve LAI response of tillers
Effect of water stress on daily panicle growth (GROPAN) and panicle
weight (PANWT) reduced by excluding TURFAC (turgor factor) in the
GROPAN equation
Effect of day-length on harvest index still needs to be attempted
Collaborating with CRP DC in conducting field experiments
Collaborate with UF and DSSAT foundation (USAID-ICRISAT Linkage fund)
12. Spatial crop modeling – Case
Studies
Case study:1 – Groundnut, India
Used well calibrated groundnut cultivars
Sowing window, fertilizer inputs across
location using experts opinion
Needs to develop better soil profile raster
for improving the simulations
14. Groundnut yield masked
to crop area
Remote sensing data was used to
develop the crop area extends
Clip the yields to that pixel
Crop extend maps can be used to
update the SPAM maps
15. Work in progress in spatial crop
modeling in 2015
Crop type masking for all ICRISAT mandate crops for
South Asia was completed (Gumma et al.,)
Integrated assessment of climate change impacts and
various NRM interventions will be studied for South Asia
for groundnut and chickpea
Improvements in the global-scale crop modeling
simulations by providing better inputs –case study
groundnut (sowing window/soil etc.,)
16. Estimating total welfare benefits (direct and spillover)
using Single-multi market Economic surplus model
To assess the spillover potential of technologies to
inform decision making
Research domains for 5 ICRISAT mandate crops completed
Modified version of excel based ACIAR spillover model was
developed
Estimation of welfare benefits for 5 crops completed
A proposal was submitted to CABI to publish a edited book
Title: DECISION SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH: Linking Impact and Spillover
Assessments to Priority Setting
18. Welfare benefits for Millets – Real world vs
Ideal world (US$ M)
776.3 Million
IRR – 17.7%
Nedumaran et al., 2013
19. Integrating gender and nutrition in
foresight modeling
Identification and compilation of database from various sources -
national, sub-national, micro-level
1. BMI - percentage of population by gender, rural & urban level, age cohort for Southeast Asia and African
regions
2. Nutritional status of children 0-5 years for Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Northern Africa and Western
Asia regions
3. % of children malnourished - who are exclusively breastfed, breastfed with complementary food, still
breastfeeding, at country level
4. % of population below international poverty line of US$1.25 per day, % of central government expenditure
(1997–2006*) allocated to health and education (India)
5. Data on women education, contraceptive prevalence and Antenatal care, delivery care coverage , maternal
mortality ratio from 2000-2007 (India)
6. % of children underweight by gender, rural ,urban and income level for all regions of the world. (Source:
UNICEF)
7. NFHS and NSSO – India
8. DHS – Global download and compilation in progress
9. Data on sanitation indicators
20. 2. Next step - Developing an index
Developing a composite index to be used in the foresight model
• Computing WEAI – for 3 states in India
• Developing a index for nutritional status for boys, girls, men and women
• Linking Sanitation indicators to nutrition status – micro level, national level
(India and Bangladesh)
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Mahbubnagar Akola Solapur
Percentageofchildrenunderfiveyearsofage
Nutritional status of children under five years of age using
Height for age (stunting) indicator, 2013-2014
Severe Stunting (< median -3SD)
Moderate Stunting (< median -2SD to >= median -3SD)
Normal (>= median -2SD)
21. DSSAT training – Completed (March, 2015)
Gridded spatial crop model training (Jan 2015 and follow up April 2015)
Spatial Tool: http://spatial-tools.icrisat.ac.in/
Publication:
1 Journal article published in 2015 (ISI journal)
2 working paper (under review)
Capacity Building, data tools and
Publication
Start with realistic scenario (green – given current adaptive capacity and adoption levels
Significant benefits in Asia and WCA: should continue with ICRISAT PM research – global research benefits including spillovers (green levels).
Past spillovers to ESA (ex-post assessment) have already vanished? SMIP impact not sustained (down to 10m)?
Huge cost of training and extension: to enable capacity building: from .2 to 1; and Adoption constrained: .3 to 1)
To achieve the Ideal World estimate, we need enough funds to increase adaptive capacity from .2 to 1 ; and enough funds to take adoption from 30% to 100%. Calculate very high cost. Reckon how AGRA investment and Seed Systems investment is enough (consider risk – governance factor).
With uncertainty scenario in Africa, must analyze the implication of the benefit levels represented by green bars:
Total benefits = $776m = US$260 m in WCA and US$507m in Asia; and 10m in ESA.
How do we increase this benefit levels?
Unit cost reduction (k) through strategic research; b. improve adaptive capacity (Pa); c. improve adoption (x)
Need to reckon the cost of achieving each step:
Cost of achieving 10% unit cost reduction (to produce green bar) compared with
To achieve red bar, how much will it cost to elevate adaptive capacity levels from present level of .2 to max of 1? MASSIVE - AGRA
To achieve blue bar, how much will it cost to elevate adoption from present level of .3 to max of 1? MASSIVE (ICRISAT contributing through seed systems; but only a small part)
Real significant contribution is through research impacts -
a. What are the tradeoffs?
Total global benefits including spillover is $776m: US$260 m benefits (green) welfare gains in WCA and almost double (US$507m) in Asia.
Talk about the cost of achieving the “blues”; with high uncertainty!
Talk about ‘k’ – research breakthroughs
How do we balance research to achieve the required breakthroughs:
big k shift through innovative research (focus of Asia given fixed infrastructure and high probability of achieving breakthroughs through good partnership in Asia)
Strategic approach in catalyzing capacity building through south-south cooperation (bridge – broker – catalyst)
Strategic approach through ARIs, other IARCS and private sector
Strategic implication – establish critical mass in PM research in WCA to harness the max potential – on condition (limitation/caveat) that the adaptive and adoption constraints are addressed e.g. seed systems, capacity building, infrastructure, policy and governance
Research emphasis on PM in WCA with target PE: PE 1,2,3
Harness strategic research in Asia (Fixed costs effect) to generate significant ‘k’ – breakthroughs