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Daniel Shepherd
Vice President
Frost & Sullivan

Throwing Light on the Future;
Mega Trends That
Will Shape the World
Introduction to Mega Trends
What is a Mega Trend?     Impact of Mega Trends on Key Organisational Functions



                                                        Marketing
                                                          and
                                                        Strategy




                                                                                 R&D
•   Transformative                Innovation
                                   Scouting
                                                                                Budget
•   Global forces                                                              Spending

•   Define the future
•   Far reaching impact




                                           Technology                  Product
                                                                    Planning and
                                            Planning                Development
We study the impact of >35 Mega Trends
                Mega City                                                   Future of Global Power Generation
URBANIZATION




                                                          ENERGY
                Mega Regions                                                Innovating to Zero !: Zero Emission
                Mega Corridors                                              Technologies
                SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure




                                                          E-MOBILITY
               Generation Y                                                 Electric Vehicles
               Women Empowerment and Women CEOs                             Electric Aircrafts
               Power to the Middle Class
SOCIAL




               Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in
               Developing Economies




                                                           INFRASTRUCTURE
               Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization                         Future Investment in Infrastructure:
                                                                            Power, Water and Transport
                                                                            Emerging Transportation Corridors
               Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers
               New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing
ECONOMY




               Hotspots
               Future Global 500 Companies by Region
               New Trade Zones                            BUSINESS           New Business Models

               SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud
               Computing
               SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits
               Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and
                                                           HEALTH




                                                                            From Fat to Fit: Health,
TECHNOLOGY




               Haptic Technology                                            Wellness and Well Being
               RoboSlaves
               Future of Consumer Electronics
               Wireless Intelligence
                                                                            Factory of the Future: SMART and
                                                          FACTORY




               Future Broadband Applications
                                                           SMART




               World War 3: Cyber Warfare                                   GREEN
               Innovative Technologies of the Future
The Future is Smart
Urbanization – an underlying theme




          MEGA CITY
       City With A Minimum
                                       MEGA REGIONS                    MEGA CORRIDORS
      Population Of 8 Million     Cities Combining With Suburbs To    The Corridors Connecting Two
     and GDP of $250 Million in    Form Regions. (Population over     Major Cities or Mega Regions
      2025 (13 Mega Cities in                15 Million)
     2011 and 25 Mega Cities in
                                                                     EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-
               2025)
                                    EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and        Guangzhou in China (Population
                                        Pretoria (forming                    120 Million)
     EXAMPLE: Greater London               “Jo-Toria”)
“Innovating To ZERO”

                                                              Zero Waste/
                                                             Emissions from
                                                               Factories



                          Zero
                          Debts

                                       Zero
                                      Defects
     Complete
 Recyclability from   Zero Breaches
Households (Cradle     of Security
to Cradle Concept)                                                          Zero
                                                                         Emissions
                                                                         from Cars




                                            Zero Accidents


                                                                                 Zero Crime
                                                                                   Rates
Smart is the new Green

          Smart Cities          Smart
                                              Smart Infrastructure   Smart Energy
                              Technology




          Smart Mobility    Smart Buildings       Smart Grids        Smart Clouds




          Smart Materials   Smart Bandages       Smart Phones        Smart Meters
Smart Diamond defines the Smart City

                                       ‘S”
                                   Governance

                     ‘S’ Citizen                 ‘S’ Business




              ‘S’ City                                        ‘S’ Buildings
             Planning




                 ‘S’ Mobility                    ‘S’ Energy

                                        ‘S’
                                   Information
                                    Technology
>40 Smart Cities by 2020


                                                                                           Amsterdam
                                                                    London
                                      Boulder
                                                                                                                                      Tianjin
                                                                                                                       GIFT
                 San Francisco                                                  GĂśteborg
                                                                                             Stockholm
                                                                    Reykjavik    Oslo         Hammarby SjĂśstad                                         Songdo
                                                   Montreal           Clonburris           Copenhagen
                                   Vancouver
                                                                        St Davids
                                   Seattle          Toronto                              Freiburg
                                        Portland
                                                                                        Paris                       Dongtan
                 Treasure Island                                              Barcelona                           Changsha
                                                   Destiny
                        Coyote Springs                                                                                           Meixi Lake
                                              Babcock Ranch                                                       Khajuraho
                                 Arcosanti
                                                                                                            Pune                             Singapore City
                                                     Bogota                                                    Kochi




Legend                                                                                                                                        Waitakere, N.Z.

    Cities built from scratch                            Curitiba
                                                                                  Cape Town              Masdar
                                                                                                                       Moreland, Australia
    Existing eco cities

    Existing eco megacities
Smart Homes – a $20bn opportunity in 2020
                                                                                      Holodeck Adventures At Home:
                                                                                        Ready-To-Entertain Living
     Smart Building Controls and                   Internet Radio: Portable           Rooms,:3D HD TV, Immersive
     Management: Monitors Mood                    Radio with wireless Internet       Gaming Experiences, Movies-On-
   Lighting, Curtains, Sets Security,                Connection Streams              Demand Controlled by Gesture or
    Adjusts Temperature and Fully                                                           Voice Command
 Linked to Mobile, Office PC and Car




                                        Smart Fridge: Built in Touch
                                        Screen with connectivity to
                                           nearby grocery shop




                                                       Constant and Pervasive WiFi
                                                       Network and WiMax and 4G
                                                              Technology


   Smart Safety and Security:
   Automated Lock Systems,                                                           Holodecks (showing Infinity Pools
   Motion Detectors Can Send                                                         and Other Landscape) To Provide
    Alarms to Mobile Phones                                                            Illusion of A Beautiful Scene
                                                                                                   Outside
Smart Office – Driving productivity and efficiency
                                                                     New Hospitality Models             Meaningful Workplace
     Wellbeing Zones: To                                             Entering the Corporate
                                         Paperless Meeting Rooms :                                        Designs to Create
  Lessen Stress and Enhance                                               Environment
                                           Using Multitouch and                                        Personalized Experience,
         Productivity
                                            Haptics on the Table                                        Customized Ergonomic
                                                                                                              Solutions




                                                                                     Seamless Switching Between
                                                                                   Laptops and Panel Display Enabling
 Wellness at the Desk:
                                                                                      New Meeting Dynamics and
Correct Display Screen
                                                                                              Interaction
Set-Up, Mood Lighting,
 Massage Chairs and
 Stress Management
     Workshops                                                                                       Telepresence Technology
                                                                                                     to Lessen Business Travel




        Smart Clouds Enabling Real-
      Time Integration of Idea Capture
         and Information Sharing
Virtual World 2020 – driving our form of interaction
 Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try     Virtual Surgeries
                                              and Medical Training     Virtual Business Conferences
    Products without leaving their homes




 Virtual Classes and Laboratories and                                 Social Networking: 3D Avatars
          Daily 3D Field Trips                                       Enabling People to Lead Multiple
  to Different Countries and Planets                                              Lives
Mega Trends are relevant to you because …
Generation Y: 1/3 of the world‟s population by 2020

       Personalization         Techno Savvy                 Civic and               Demanding and
             and               and Connected             Environmentally           Impatient – “Fast
      Individualization            24 X 7                   Friendly               and the Furious”

                                Gaming Gizmos
   Personalized Search and                                                       Instant Text Messaging
                                                          Eco- Transport
            News




                                  Smart Phones
  Social Networking Profiles
                                                      Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags
                                                         Instead of Plastic)          Instant Chat



                               Facebook-on-the Move



   Personalized Products
                                                          Paperless Banking        Speed Oriented
                                                                                 Gaming (Car Racing)
                                 Microblogs
Middle Class to account for >50% of world population by 2020
                                                                                                     Percent of Global Middle
                                                                                                     Class Across Developing
                                Global Income Pyramid, 2010 and 2020                                     Regions in 2020

                                                                                                               10%
                                                                                                               Africa



                                                                                                               31%
      $30,000                                                                                                  India


                                                                                                                                Middle
                                                                                                                4%              East
                                                                                                               16%
                                                                                                              Rest of
       $6,000
                                                                                                               Asia
                                                                                                                                 Latin
                                                                                                                8%               America
                                                                                                                7%
                                                                                                                CEE


                           2010                                         2020                                   24%
                                                                                                               China


Note: The Middle Class in the graph are defined as people with Incomes between
$6,000 and $30,000 found in developing countries. However, this definition could differ marginally             2020
from country.
The word „Ecosystem‟ starts to mean something
                                        Energy/Infrastructure
                                              Players
                                          • T&D Technology
                                          • Power Electronics
                                          • Renewable Energy
                                          • Integrated Distribution Management
                                          • Substation Automation
                                          • AMI-Enabled Metering
                                          • Etc.




• IP Networks                                                     • Building Automation
• Digital Technology                                              • Demand-Side Management
• Analysis Software                                               • Connectivity of devices
• Wireless Communication                                          • Monitoring and Sensing
• Technology Integration                                          • Smart Grid Integration
• Network Security                                                • Etc.
• Etc.
                                                                     Automation/Building
 IT Players                                                            Control Players

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Throwing Light on the Future; Mega Trends That Will Shape the World

  • 1. Daniel Shepherd Vice President Frost & Sullivan Throwing Light on the Future; Mega Trends That Will Shape the World
  • 3. What is a Mega Trend? Impact of Mega Trends on Key Organisational Functions Marketing and Strategy R&D • Transformative Innovation Scouting Budget • Global forces Spending • Define the future • Far reaching impact Technology Product Planning and Planning Development
  • 4. We study the impact of >35 Mega Trends Mega City Future of Global Power Generation URBANIZATION ENERGY Mega Regions Innovating to Zero !: Zero Emission Mega Corridors Technologies SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure E-MOBILITY Generation Y Electric Vehicles Women Empowerment and Women CEOs Electric Aircrafts Power to the Middle Class SOCIAL Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies INFRASTRUCTURE Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization Future Investment in Infrastructure: Power, Water and Transport Emerging Transportation Corridors Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing ECONOMY Hotspots Future Global 500 Companies by Region New Trade Zones BUSINESS New Business Models SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud Computing SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and HEALTH From Fat to Fit: Health, TECHNOLOGY Haptic Technology Wellness and Well Being RoboSlaves Future of Consumer Electronics Wireless Intelligence Factory of the Future: SMART and FACTORY Future Broadband Applications SMART World War 3: Cyber Warfare GREEN Innovative Technologies of the Future
  • 6. Urbanization – an underlying theme MEGA CITY City With A Minimum MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS Population Of 8 Million Cities Combining With Suburbs To The Corridors Connecting Two and GDP of $250 Million in Form Regions. (Population over Major Cities or Mega Regions 2025 (13 Mega Cities in 15 Million) 2011 and 25 Mega Cities in EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen- 2025) EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Guangzhou in China (Population Pretoria (forming 120 Million) EXAMPLE: Greater London “Jo-Toria”)
  • 7. “Innovating To ZERO” Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories Zero Debts Zero Defects Complete Recyclability from Zero Breaches Households (Cradle of Security to Cradle Concept) Zero Emissions from Cars Zero Accidents Zero Crime Rates
  • 8. Smart is the new Green Smart Cities Smart Smart Infrastructure Smart Energy Technology Smart Mobility Smart Buildings Smart Grids Smart Clouds Smart Materials Smart Bandages Smart Phones Smart Meters
  • 9. Smart Diamond defines the Smart City ‘S” Governance ‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business ‘S’ City ‘S’ Buildings Planning ‘S’ Mobility ‘S’ Energy ‘S’ Information Technology
  • 10. >40 Smart Cities by 2020 Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco GĂśteborg Stockholm Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby SjĂśstad Songdo Montreal Clonburris Copenhagen Vancouver St Davids Seattle Toronto Freiburg Portland Paris Dongtan Treasure Island Barcelona Changsha Destiny Coyote Springs Meixi Lake Babcock Ranch Khajuraho Arcosanti Pune Singapore City Bogota Kochi Legend Waitakere, N.Z. Cities built from scratch Curitiba Cape Town Masdar Moreland, Australia Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities
  • 11. Smart Homes – a $20bn opportunity in 2020 Holodeck Adventures At Home: Ready-To-Entertain Living Smart Building Controls and Internet Radio: Portable Rooms,:3D HD TV, Immersive Management: Monitors Mood Radio with wireless Internet Gaming Experiences, Movies-On- Lighting, Curtains, Sets Security, Connection Streams Demand Controlled by Gesture or Adjusts Temperature and Fully Voice Command Linked to Mobile, Office PC and Car Smart Fridge: Built in Touch Screen with connectivity to nearby grocery shop Constant and Pervasive WiFi Network and WiMax and 4G Technology Smart Safety and Security: Automated Lock Systems, Holodecks (showing Infinity Pools Motion Detectors Can Send and Other Landscape) To Provide Alarms to Mobile Phones Illusion of A Beautiful Scene Outside
  • 12. Smart Office – Driving productivity and efficiency New Hospitality Models Meaningful Workplace Wellbeing Zones: To Entering the Corporate Paperless Meeting Rooms : Designs to Create Lessen Stress and Enhance Environment Using Multitouch and Personalized Experience, Productivity Haptics on the Table Customized Ergonomic Solutions Seamless Switching Between Laptops and Panel Display Enabling Wellness at the Desk: New Meeting Dynamics and Correct Display Screen Interaction Set-Up, Mood Lighting, Massage Chairs and Stress Management Workshops Telepresence Technology to Lessen Business Travel Smart Clouds Enabling Real- Time Integration of Idea Capture and Information Sharing
  • 13. Virtual World 2020 – driving our form of interaction Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training Virtual Business Conferences Products without leaving their homes Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Social Networking: 3D Avatars Daily 3D Field Trips Enabling People to Lead Multiple to Different Countries and Planets Lives
  • 14. Mega Trends are relevant to you because …
  • 15. Generation Y: 1/3 of the world‟s population by 2020 Personalization Techno Savvy Civic and Demanding and and and Connected Environmentally Impatient – “Fast Individualization 24 X 7 Friendly and the Furious” Gaming Gizmos Personalized Search and Instant Text Messaging Eco- Transport News Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat Facebook-on-the Move Personalized Products Paperless Banking Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing) Microblogs
  • 16. Middle Class to account for >50% of world population by 2020 Percent of Global Middle Class Across Developing Global Income Pyramid, 2010 and 2020 Regions in 2020 10% Africa 31% $30,000 India Middle 4% East 16% Rest of $6,000 Asia Latin 8% America 7% CEE 2010 2020 24% China Note: The Middle Class in the graph are defined as people with Incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 found in developing countries. However, this definition could differ marginally 2020 from country.
  • 17. The word „Ecosystem‟ starts to mean something Energy/Infrastructure Players • T&D Technology • Power Electronics • Renewable Energy • Integrated Distribution Management • Substation Automation • AMI-Enabled Metering • Etc. • IP Networks • Building Automation • Digital Technology • Demand-Side Management • Analysis Software • Connectivity of devices • Wireless Communication • Monitoring and Sensing • Technology Integration • Smart Grid Integration • Network Security • Etc. • Etc. Automation/Building IT Players Control Players