Diese Präsentation wurde erfolgreich gemeldet.
Wir verwenden Ihre LinkedIn Profilangaben und Informationen zu Ihren Aktivitäten, um Anzeigen zu personalisieren und Ihnen relevantere Inhalte anzuzeigen. Sie können Ihre Anzeigeneinstellungen jederzeit ändern.
Do we need another approach to housing policies? 
Housing Europe – Finance Watch conference 
Housing Finance – It’s a choi...
An exceptional global housing price boom 
Real housing prices, 1995=100 
2 
Source: OECD and National sources. 
0501001502...
Current housing price orientation in OECD countries 
(as of September 2014) 
3 
Source: OECD and National sources. 
Contin...
Gross household debt is high in many countries 
As a percentage of net disposable income 
4 
Source: OECD National Account...
Credit risk 
Generally moderate 
But some cases of high risk lending (e.g. US, Hungary, Iceland) 
Defaults resulting fr...
Arrears in Spain 
Percentage of non-performing loans for house purchase (>30 days in arrears) 
6 
Source: Bank of Spain. 
...
Construction has collapsed in many countries 
Housing starts 
7 
Source: European Mortgage Federation. 
0 
200.000 
400.00...
Housing cost overburden rate by tenure status, 2012 
Percentage of the population living in a household where the total co...
Demand side: 
Financial regulation and supervision 
Tax systems often encourage home-ownership. Mortgage interest deduct...
Monitoring of housing market developments and their macroeconomic impact: Economic Outlook http://www.oecd.org/eco/econom...
Housing markets have become increasingly volatile over the past decades. High household debt may entail risks for househo...
Thank you!
Nächste SlideShare
Wird geladen in …5
×

Christopher André- Do we need another approach to housing policies? #housingfinance

557 Aufrufe

Veröffentlicht am

Do we need another approach to housing policies? By Christophe André, OECD Economics Department

  • Als Erste(r) kommentieren

Christopher André- Do we need another approach to housing policies? #housingfinance

  1. 1. Do we need another approach to housing policies? Housing Europe – Finance Watch conference Housing Finance – It’s a choice ! Property bubbles or social and ecological resilience? Brussels, 5 November 2014 Christophe André OECD Economics Department 1
  2. 2. An exceptional global housing price boom Real housing prices, 1995=100 2 Source: OECD and National sources. 050100150200250300350United StatesGermanyFranceUnited KingdomCanadaIrelandSpain
  3. 3. Current housing price orientation in OECD countries (as of September 2014) 3 Source: OECD and National sources. Continued fall Greece (-42), Italy (-23), Spain (-38), Slovenia (-27) Moderate fall France (-6), Finland (-3), Japan (-9), Portugal (-10) Broadly stable Belgium (+3), Czech Republic (-11), Denmark (-27), Hungary (-34), Korea (-3), Luxembourg (+7), Mexico (- 1), Netherlands (-24), Slovakia (-28) Moderate increase Austria (+22), Canada (+14), Germany (+18), Norway (+13), Sweden (+4), Switzerland (+26) Firm recovery Estonia (-34), United Kingdom (-9), Iceland (-27), Ireland (-44), New Zealand (+1), United States (-18) Rapid increase Australia (+8), Israel (+58) In parenthesis, percentage change in real housing prices relative to peak in 2006-08.
  4. 4. Gross household debt is high in many countries As a percentage of net disposable income 4 Source: OECD National Accounts Statistics. 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 2012 or latest available year 2007
  5. 5. Credit risk Generally moderate But some cases of high risk lending (e.g. US, Hungary, Iceland) Defaults resulting from a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic conditions (e.g. euro area periphery) Funding risk Maturity mismatch (e.g. UK, Netherlands) Currency mismatch (e.g. Iceland, some Central and Eastern Europe countries) Macroeconomic risk Fall in consumption (e.g. US, UK, Denmark) Reduction in residential investment Second round impact on the economy and the financial sector What are the risks associated with high/growing household debt? 5
  6. 6. Arrears in Spain Percentage of non-performing loans for house purchase (>30 days in arrears) 6 Source: Bank of Spain. 0123456719899091929394959697989920000102030405060708091011121314
  7. 7. Construction has collapsed in many countries Housing starts 7 Source: European Mortgage Federation. 0 200.000 400.000 600.000 800.000 1.000.000 1.200.000 1.400.000 1.600.000 1.800.000 2.000.000 UK France Spain USA 2001 2006 2012 (2011 for UK) 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 2001 2006 2012 (2011 for Norway)
  8. 8. Housing cost overburden rate by tenure status, 2012 Percentage of the population living in a household where the total cost of housing exceeds 40% of equivalised disposable income 8 Source: Eurostat.
  9. 9. Demand side: Financial regulation and supervision Tax systems often encourage home-ownership. Mortgage interest deductibility can be costly and tends to be regressive. If supply is rigid, capitalisation of tax advantage in housing prices Supply side: Zoning and planning regulations are often excessively tight Infrastructure investment is sometimes insufficient Supply of new affordable/social housing is often low (partly because of costs and potential side-effects – segregation, weakening work incentives and mobility) Private rental market regulations (rent control, balance of protection of tenant and landlord rights) are hampering the development of the rental market in some countries A holistic approach to housing is needed 9
  10. 10. Monitoring of housing market developments and their macroeconomic impact: Economic Outlook http://www.oecd.org/eco/economicoutlook.htm Structural policies: Housing and the Economy (2011) http://www.oecd.org/eco/growth/housing-and-the-economy.htm Special chapters on housing in Economic Surveys http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/ Case study on the private rental market (Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Netherlands): de Boer and Bitetti http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jxv9f32j0zp-en Social policies for housing (ongoing project) Cities http://www.oecd.org/gov/regional-policy/urbandevelopment.htm Selected OECD references on housing 10
  11. 11. Housing markets have become increasingly volatile over the past decades. High household debt may entail risks for households, the financial system and the wider economy -> Need for adequate financial regulation and supervision. First-time buyers are increasingly excluded by high prices and deposit requirements -> But improving access to finance and providing demand-side subsidies is not enough (and can prove counterproductive). Access to decent housing is increasingly problematic for some segments of the population in many countries, which has deep social and economic consequences -> Housing policies are only part of the solution. Structural features of housing markets (e.g. land-use planning, taxation, regulations) can both limit the availability of decent housing and generate financial and macroeconomic instability -> A holistic approach to housing issues is needed. Conclusions 11
  12. 12. Thank you!

×