Weitere ähnliche Inhalte Kürzlich hochgeladen (20) Polish local elections 20144. RegionalAssembliesand City Mayorships
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1.Szczecin
2.Gorzów Wlkp.
3.Zielona Góra
4.Wrocław
5.Poznań
6.Gdańsk
7.Bydgoszcz
8.Toruń
9.Opole
10.Katowice
11.Łódź
12.Olsztyn
13.Warszawa
14.Kielce
15.Kraków
16.Rzeszów
17.Białystok
18.Lublin
Non partisans 6. 6
Marek Matraszek
Founding Partner
Commentary
Followinglongdelaysinvotecounting,Poland’sNationalElectoralCommission(PKW)finallyannouncedtheofficialresultsofthefirstroundoflocalgovernmentelectionsheldonNovember16th. DespitemostballotsbeingcastformainoppositionpartyLawandJustice(PiS),therulingcoalitionpartiesCivicPlatform(PO)andPolishPeasantsParty(PSL)emergedaswinners,controlling15outof16regions.
Therun-offracesonNovember30thforthemayorshipsofmajortownsandcitiesunderlinedthekeytrendoftheelections:PiShaddonewell,butnotwellenoughtosecurekeyvictories.Inmajorcities,POcandidateswontherunoffsagainstPiScandidates,withonlyafewexceptions.PO,despiteachievingtheirworstresultsince2005,wonmostseatsattheregionallevelandmaintaineditsgriponmostcities–theparty’scandidatessecuredvictoriesinŁódźandLublin,wonrun-offsonNovember30thinWarsaw, Gdansk,WroclawandPoznan,andrecapturedsomeimportantmiddle-sizedtowns.Howeverthesevictorieswereachievedwithnarrowermarginsthanin2010,andmaypointtomoreturnoverinthenextlocalelectionsin2018. 7. Commentary
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TheelectionresultsareawarningsignalforPO.Aftersevenyearsofcontinuousvictories,withoutitsformidableleaderDonaldTusk,miredininternalrivalrybetweencontendersforthepartyleadership,CivicPlatformfacesadifficultelectoralyearin2015.Losingitshithertocoreelectorateoftheurbaneducatedmiddleclass,POwillhavetosetitscoursecautiously.
However,itisthePO’sjuniorcoalitionpartnerPSLwhichmadethebiggestgains–withthebesteverelectionresultfortheparty,securing157outof555seatsinregionalassemblies.OnceconsideredanarrowrepresentationofPolishfarmers,PSLinrecentyearshasbecameincreasinglyperceivedasa“partyofcommonsense”,opposingpopulistlegislationandcapturinglocalfootholdsintownsandcitiesacrossPoland.Onereasonisitsdynamicchairmanwithapenchantforcampaigninginthefieldwhilstallowingflexibilityforlocalactivists.CrucialwasarebellionbydisillusionedPOvoters,suspiciousofEwaKopacz'sshifttotheleftanddoubtfulthatCivicPlatformremainsdedicatedtofreemarketprinciples.PSLhasbecomeapartyofchoiceforsmallentrepreneurs,whobelievethatonalocalleveltheycanrelyonPSLcommitmentstosupportdomesticbusinesses. 8. Commentary
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LawandJusticeprovedunabletotakepowerinkeycitiesandprovinces(althoughtheydidwinapluralityofvotesinsixprovinces),evengivenfavourableconditionsofthepowervoidafterTusk’sdeparturetoBrussels. PiSleaderJarosławKaczyńskiaccusedthePOandPSLofvoterigginganddemandedtheelectionstobevoided.SLDleaderLeszekMiller,joinedhimintheseclaimsafterhisowncrushingdefeat.Untilnow,MillerhasalwayscriticisedPiS,butwithSLDscoringonly8.78%andfinishingdistantfourthwithbarely28seatsMillerisnowindesperationswitchingtacticsandattackingPO.
Withthedustsettlingafterthepost-electionchaos,twoplayershaveemergedvictorious.ThefirstisPSL’sleaderJanuszPiechociński,confidentlyopposingthevote-riggingclaims.ThesecondisPresidentBronisławKomorowski,whohashisownelectionbattletowinin2015,whocleverlyrefusedtobedrawnintothecampaign.Radiatingstatesmanship,hecommittedalsotoamendingtheelectoralcodetopreventsimilarvotingchaosinthefuture.Poles,tiredofelectoralconflict,welcomedhispositionandKomorowski’strustratingsasaresulthavesoaredagain,entrenchinghimastheoneofthemostrespectedmembersofthePolishpoliticalclass. 9. www.cecgr.com
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