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STRICTEMENT PRIVE ET
CONFIDENTIEL
Groupe VivaSante
Latin America
VIVASANTE LATAM
19092012
URGO – GO to Market Strategy
CCFB, September 2015
Latin America
• A 100% family-owned business that promotes entrepreneurial spirit: autonomy,
employee empowerment, responsiveness
• A company with strong brands:
100million €
600million €
+ 14 % per yearTurnover
growth
Urgo Group, a family-owned and entrepreneurial SME
2001 2015
A strong strategy of partnerships, acquisition and international development
International presence
In Latin America
 Our goal is to position our brands & products in 4 key markets: Brazil, Mexico,
Chile & Colombia
• Operations has begun in 2011 with the acquisition of a pharmaceutical company
in Brazil : LM FARMA Indústria Comércio Ltda
Acquisition of Brazilian leader
the fastest and most profitable way to overcome these barriers
• 1st Management meeting –
02/2011
• NBO signed in March 2011
• Offer on 100% of the Share
• Acquisition in 2 steps : 70%
/ 30%
• Closing August 2011
High barriers to enter the Brazilian healthcare market
Fiscal
Customs &
Administrative
FinanceCommercial
Regulatory
Tax complexity means: need for optimization
• Acquisition of a « Know How »  Optimisation
• Acquisition of manufacturing capabilities => National products
• Allows Tax / ICMS exemptions
• Allows to reduce the importation tax base
• => Finished products & semi-finished vs. raw materials
Fiscal
Customs
&
Administr
ative
Finance
Commerci
al
Regulator
y
Regulatory complexity means: need to accelerate market access
Acquisition of a manufacturing site
already certified GMP by l’ANVISA
Reduced time for product
registration
3 to 5 years are needed to certify
an international manufacturing
site
Year
Registration time in
days
2007 - 2008 234
2009 - 2010 287
2011 - 2012 271
2012 - 2013 434
National
Products
Imported finished goods
Site registration by Anvisa:
Cost increase from 37KBRL to 108KBRL
from Sept. 2015 onwards
Fiscal
Customs
&
Administr
ative
Finance
Commerci
al
Regulator
y
Customs complexity means: need to smoothen the "Supply Chain Management"
« Made in Brazil »
is a must
Fiscal
Customs
&
Administr
ative
Finance
Commerci
al
Regulator
y
Complexity of the market means: need to capitalize & leverage on existing Business
• Acquisition of a commercial network « Know How »
• Acquisition of distribution network « Guan-xi » / Relacionamento
• Acquisition of brand equity  Intangible « asset »
57% awareness in Brazilian
hospitals
Brand Status Wound Care – i consult
Fiscal
Customs
&
Administr
ative
Finance
Commerci
al
Regulator
y
Complexity of the market means: need for customization
Full Line of products adapted to Brazilian market requirements
Fiscal
Customs
&
Administr
ative
Finance
Commerci
al
Regulator
y
Complexity of the market means: need to capitalize on Human Capital Expertise
General Director
Alexandre Tepas
HR Manager
Vacant
Quality & RA Mgr
Nesser Oliveira
CFO
Johann Wasserer
Commercial Manager
Luciana Amorim
R&D Supervisor
Celia Reimberg
Production Supervisor
Fabio Ferreira
Marketing Mgr
Jean-Michel Moisant
Executive Secretary
Inês Morais
Industrial Perimeter
Other Perimeters
Stable Since
2011
Complexity of funding means: need to be eligible for grants
• The financing costs are high in Brazil
=> Cost of financing ~ 16%
• R&D project with counterpart  FINEP grants
• Innovation project
• 3mR$ research grant for 3 years
• 1mR$ counterpart
Fiscal
Customs
&
Administr
ative
Finance
Commerci
al
Regulator
y
In the future it, it will be necessary not to be passive vs. legislation changes
Balance point
Productivity
Local
content
Protectionnism Liberalization
Alternative Scenarios: Starting Up From Scratch
Lower 5 years sales ramp up
• No access door to the Wound Care distribution network
• No tender process knowledge
• No Brand Equity in Brazil
Delayed sales activation => 2015
• Set up affiliate
• Certification ANVISA (36 months)
• Product registrations (12 months)
No critical mass to absorb fixed cost
• General Manager
• Sales force
• Technical responsibility required by ANVISA
Alternative Scenarios: Starting Up From Scratch
R$ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
P&L
- - - - 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396
Total Gross Revenues 0 0 0 0 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396
Growth 134,8% 62,0% 33,1%
Sales Taxes - - - - (330 967) (744 323) (1 190 083) (1 567 432)
Sales Taxes % of Gross Sales -18% -17% -17% -16%
Net Sales 0 0 0 0 1 559 268 3 694 058 5 999 396 8 002 964
Growth 136,9% 62,4% 33,4%
20% 15%
COGS & Distributor margin - - - - (514 004) (1 407 747) (2 375 851) (3 265 301)
Gross Margin 0 0 0 0 1 045 264 2 286 311 3 623 545 4 737 664
%Net Sales 67% 62% 60% 59%
Total Transports+Logistics - - - - (77 963) (184 703) (299 970) (400 148)
% Net Sales -5% -5% -5% -5%
Marge C 0 0 0 0 967 301 2 101 608 3 323 575 4 337 515
%Net Sales 62% 57% 55% 54%
Direct selling costs / general sales expenses - - - - (93 556) (221 643) (359 964) (480 178)
%Net sales -6% -6% -6% -6%
Product Contribution 0 0 0 0 873 745 1 879 965 2 963 611 3 857 337
CP %Net Sales 56% 51% 49% 48%
Technical Manager (34 125) (136 500) (143 325) (150 491) (158 016) (165 917) (174 212) (182 923)
Product Manager Curatec/Urgo - - - (64 350) (135 135) (141 892) (148 986) (156 436)
National Sales Manager - - - (152 750) (320 775) (336 814) (353 654) (371 337)
Regional Managers - - - (284 700) (597 870) (627 764) (659 152) (692 109)
Nurses (Technical experts) - - - (202 800) (851 760) (1 277 640) (1 341 522) (1 408 598)
Direction's Assistant - - (29 348) (58 695) (61 630) (64 711) (67 947) (71 344)
Total Personnel URGO MEDICAL (34 125) (136 500) (172 673) (913 786) (2 125 186) (2 614 737) (2 745 474) (2 882 747)
%Net sales -136% -71% -46% -36%
Cabinet reglementaire - - (10 000) (10 000) (10 000) (10 000) - -
Regulatory/Registration budget (188 800) (94 400) - - - - - -
Operations expenses (188 800) (211 400) (142 000) (197 000) (152 000) (202 000) - -
%Net sales -10% -5% 0% 0%
IT - SAP - - - - - (598 000) (150 000) (150 000)
IT - CRM - - - - - (180 000) (90 000) (90 000)
IT expenses - - - - - (778 000) (240 000) (240 000)
%Net sales 0% -21% -4% -3%
Création de Structure (100 000) - - - - - - -
HR budget / Head hunting - - - (200 720) - - - -
Accounting - - - (60 000) (120 000) - - -
Lawyers (contracts…) - - - (50 000) (25 000) (12 500) (12 500) (12 500)
External Services (100 000) - - (310 720) (145 000) (12 500) (12 500) (12 500)
Rental - (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000)
%Net sales -12% -5% -3% -2%
Total G&A Urgo Medical (322 925) (527 900) (494 673) (1 601 506) (2 602 186) (3 787 237) (3 177 974) (3 315 247)
%Net sales -167% -103% -53% -41%
Growth 63% -6% 224% 62% 46% -16% 4%
EBITDA (322 925) (527 900) (494 673) (1 601 506) (1 728 441) (1 907 272) (214 362) 542 090
EBITDA %Net Sales -111% -52% -4% 7%
Growth 63,5% -6,3% 223,8% -7,9% 10,3% -88,8% -352,9%
VALORISATION en R$ 2011-2018
Somme des FCF actualisés -4 878 301
Valeur terminale 147 453
Valeur d'entreprise -R$ 4 730 848
NPV Acquisition = 15.3 mR$
WACC = 17%
Alternative Scenarios: Distribution Model
Lower 5 years sales ramp up
• More common approach => less risky and less capital intensive
• Still no Brand Equity in Brazil => 50% of sales forecasts vs. acquisition
Delayed sales activation => 2014
• Time to identify the right partner (12 months)
• Product registrations (18 months)
Light cost structure
• No structural costs
• All operational costs absorbed by the distributor
• Only registration & IP cost paid by URGO (remains owner of assets)
Alternative Scenarios: Distribution Model
NPV Acquisition = 15.3 mR$
WACC = 17%
VALORISATION en R$ 2011-2018
Somme des FCF actualisés 1 170 904
Valeur terminale 5 818 301
Valeur d'entreprise R$ 6 989 205
R$ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
P&L
- - - 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 11 005 955
Total Gross Revenues 0 0 0 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 11 005 955
Growth 134,8% 62,0% 25,0% 15,0%
Sales Taxes - - - (330 967) (744 323) (1 190 083) (1 567 432) (1 705 915)
Sales Taxes % of Gross Sales -18% -17% -17% -16% -15%
Net Sales 0 0 0 1 559 268 3 694 058 5 999 396 8 002 964 9 300 041
Growth 136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2%
20% 15%
COGS & Distributor margin - - - (1 013 524) (2 401 138) (3 899 607) (5 201 927) (6 045 026)
Gross Margin 0 0 0 545 744 1 292 920 2 099 789 2 801 037 3 255 014
%Net Sales 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
Total Transports+Logistics - - - (77 963) (184 703) (299 970) (400 148) (465 002)
% Net Sales -5% -5% -5% -5% -5%
Marge C 0 0 0 467 780 1 108 217 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012
%Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Cabinet reglementaire (40 000) (20 000) - - - -
Regulatory/Registration budget (188 800) (94 400) - - - -
Operations expenses (228 800) (114 400) - - - - - -
%Net sales 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EBITDA (228 800) (114 400) - 467 780 1 108 218 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012
EBITDA %Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Growth -50,0% -100,0% -136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2%
Total Gross Revenues 0 0 0 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 11 005 955
Growth 134,8% 62,0% 25,0% 15,0%
Sales Taxes - - - (330 967) (744 323) (1 190 083) (1 567 432) (1 705 915)
Sales Taxes % of Gross Sales -18% -17% -17% -16% -15%
Net Sales 0 0 0 1 559 268 3 694 058 5 999 396 8 002 964 9 300 041
Growth 136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2%
20% 15%
COGS & Distributor margin - - - (1 013 524) (2 401 138) (3 899 607) (5 201 927) (6 045 026)
Gross Margin 0 0 0 545 744 1 292 920 2 099 789 2 801 037 3 255 014
%Net Sales 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
Total Transports+Logistics - - - (77 963) (184 703) (299 970) (400 148) (465 002)
% Net Sales -5% -5% -5% -5% -5%
Marge C 0 0 0 467 780 1 108 217 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012
%Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Cabinet reglementaire (40 000) (20 000) - - - -
Regulatory/Registration budget (188 800) (94 400) - - - -
Operations expenses (228 800) (114 400) - - - - - -
%Net sales 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EBITDA (228 800) (114 400) - 467 780 1 108 218 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012
EBITDA %Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Growth -50,0% -100,0% -136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2%
Conclusion
Starting Up From Scratch
• 1st positive cash flows & break even (EBITDA > 0) 6 years after “Go Live”
• NPV remains negative even with 6 years perspective
Distributor Model
• EBITDA > 0 and positive cash flow from year 1
Acquisition Model
NPV “from scratch” = - 4,7 mR$
NPV “Distributor” = + 7 mR$
NPV “Acquistion” = + 15.3 mR$
Greater value… but higher risk!
Brazil perseption from 2009 to 2015 – The Economist point of view
2009 2013
2014 2015
Brazil is losing ground vs. other emerging economies
• Average growth of 1,2% since the end of the crisis (2011-2014) vs. 3,5%
on the period 2002-2008
• Average growth 2011-2015 ~ 0%
• Potential growth limited to 2,5% according to FMI
Macro-economic Scenario in 2015
 Recession expected at [-2,5% ; -3%] including all factors. -1,9% in Q2 after -
0,7% in Q1 (technical recession)
 Last 12m inflation reaches 9,56% in July
 SELIC rate reaches 14,25%
 Exchange rate evolution
 Unemployment rate moved from 5,3 to 7,5% (Av. 2001-2015: 8,4%)
2014 2015 Var. Spot Sept. Var.
€ 3,12 3,44 10,3% 4,28 37,2%
USD 2,34 3,09 32,1% 3,83 63,7%
Average
Historial excange rate BRL vs. USD – SÉRIE BANCO CENTRAL
FONTE: BACEN, BLOOMBERG
ELABORAÇÃO: BRADESCO
2,34
3,82
4,82
3,96
6,12
4,39
1,98
2,33
2,74
3,74
3,00
3,17
1,8
2,3
2,8
3,3
3,8
4,3
4,8
5,3
5,8
6,3
6,8
set/93
mar/94
set/94
mar/95
set/95
mar/96
set/96
mar/97
set/97
mar/98
set/98
mar/99
set/99
mar/00
set/00
mar/01
set/01
mar/02
set/02
mar/03
set/03
mar/04
set/04
mar/05
set/05
mar/06
set/06
mar/07
set/07
mar/08
set/08
mar/09
set/09
mar/10
set/10
mar/11
set/11
mar/12
set/12
mar/13
set/13
mar/14
set/14
mar/15
set/15
1988 - 2015
1999 - 2015
2,98
média de
2006
Acquisition LM Farma => 1€ = 2,20 BRL
1 USD = 2 BRL
Is the BRL currency correction near from the end?
 The most expensive Big Mac in
the world…
The « Big Mac » index - 2015
(Comparaison vs. €, adjusted to purchase power)
 …but a progressive return to
normal
25
Brazil is still a Strategic & Promising Market for SME & Multinational
 Brazil is a key market
 7th GDP worldwide in 2014 (possibly 9th at end of 2015, after India & Italy)
 The FDI should be maintained in 2015, around 65MdsUSD
 Resilience of the class C consumption
 Strong economics pillars
 Giant in the agriculture and mining industry: 4th Agro exporter worldwide
 Despite Petrobras crisis, the country remains an important reserve of Oil&gaz
(potentially the 6th producer in 2035)
 Strong Brazilian industrial corporations: Petrobras, Vale, Embraer…
 Brazilian ability to resist to systemic shock is reassuring
 Currency reserves = 371 MdsUSD beginning of 2015
 Reasonable debt level (1,424 Mds USD, i.e. 65% of GDP ; 70% expected in 2016)
Brazil is still a Strategic & Promising Market for SME & Multinational
FDI remain high
Cumulative 12 months– b$
Source: Banque centrale
66,4 b$
2015
28
The BRL devaluation has fiercely hampered the Legacy profitability
EUR
GBP
USD
% Purchases
28%
18%
8%
Forex
2011-2015
2,2-3,22 BRL -37%
-61%2,68-4,33 BRL
1,67-2,86 BRL -71%
Gross Margin Impact
Transaction effect
BRL 46%
EUR
GBP
USD
Impact on EBIT
Translation effect &
Transaction effect
-6 ppts
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
janv.-11
juin-11
nov.-11
avr.-12
sept.-12
févr.-13
juil.-13
déc.-13
mai-14
oct.-14
mars-15
EURO
USD
GBP
Fierce Forex Impact
since 2011
-6pts on Gross
Margin
-4 pts on EBITDA
2011 2015 Var. Comment
Sales forecast 100 100 Similar sales forecast
EBITDA 20 16 Forex impact on EBITDA %: -3pts
EBITDA ratio 9,0 10,0 Source: Mergemarket
Price 180 160 -11%
Forex 2,2 4,3 95%
Sales forecast 45 23
EBITDA 9,1 3,7
Price 82 37 -54%
Ratio 9,0 10,0
BRL
€
This is PROBABLY the right time to perform acquisition in Brazil
 Acquisition multiples are stable vs. 5 years ago (avg. 10x EBITDA)
 € is 90% stronger than 4 years ago vs. BRL
 Making an acquisition in Brazil for a European company is 2x cheaper than it was 4 years ago
 Macroeconomics: Brazil is at a low-point in terms of GDP growth, mid-term growth is expected at 2%
 Crisis = Opportunities of Targets
 Companies with profitability issues: scissors effect low sales growth vs. high inflation of costs
 Companies with cash issues: increased interest rates and diminution of public incentives for
financing (BNDES)
 Financial perspectives are bad for year to come (tax increases, end of social charge incentive)
Conclusion
 An acquisition is the fastest way to enter developing markets
 Strategy particularly efficent in Brazil vis a vis the entry barriers
 When structuring an acquisition, need to chose between forex exposure or local debt (i.e.
high interest rates)
 Lessons of the Urgo case: BP in BRL is on track… but strong adverse impact of forex (Killing
the project NPV) and of macro-economical situation in 2015
 Today, Brazil economic situation is at a low-point and risk of additional BRL devaluation is
low
 Some Brazilian companies are in a critical situation
 The € is strong
It is the moment to purchase!!
Case Urgo LM Farma - Comissão de Inteligência Estratégica

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Case Urgo LM Farma - Comissão de Inteligência Estratégica

  • 1. STRICTEMENT PRIVE ET CONFIDENTIEL Groupe VivaSante Latin America VIVASANTE LATAM 19092012 URGO – GO to Market Strategy CCFB, September 2015 Latin America
  • 2. • A 100% family-owned business that promotes entrepreneurial spirit: autonomy, employee empowerment, responsiveness • A company with strong brands: 100million € 600million € + 14 % per yearTurnover growth Urgo Group, a family-owned and entrepreneurial SME 2001 2015
  • 3. A strong strategy of partnerships, acquisition and international development
  • 5. In Latin America  Our goal is to position our brands & products in 4 key markets: Brazil, Mexico, Chile & Colombia • Operations has begun in 2011 with the acquisition of a pharmaceutical company in Brazil : LM FARMA Indústria Comércio Ltda
  • 6. Acquisition of Brazilian leader the fastest and most profitable way to overcome these barriers • 1st Management meeting – 02/2011 • NBO signed in March 2011 • Offer on 100% of the Share • Acquisition in 2 steps : 70% / 30% • Closing August 2011
  • 7. High barriers to enter the Brazilian healthcare market Fiscal Customs & Administrative FinanceCommercial Regulatory
  • 8. Tax complexity means: need for optimization • Acquisition of a « Know How »  Optimisation • Acquisition of manufacturing capabilities => National products • Allows Tax / ICMS exemptions • Allows to reduce the importation tax base • => Finished products & semi-finished vs. raw materials Fiscal Customs & Administr ative Finance Commerci al Regulator y
  • 9. Regulatory complexity means: need to accelerate market access Acquisition of a manufacturing site already certified GMP by l’ANVISA Reduced time for product registration 3 to 5 years are needed to certify an international manufacturing site Year Registration time in days 2007 - 2008 234 2009 - 2010 287 2011 - 2012 271 2012 - 2013 434 National Products Imported finished goods Site registration by Anvisa: Cost increase from 37KBRL to 108KBRL from Sept. 2015 onwards Fiscal Customs & Administr ative Finance Commerci al Regulator y
  • 10. Customs complexity means: need to smoothen the "Supply Chain Management" « Made in Brazil » is a must Fiscal Customs & Administr ative Finance Commerci al Regulator y
  • 11. Complexity of the market means: need to capitalize & leverage on existing Business • Acquisition of a commercial network « Know How » • Acquisition of distribution network « Guan-xi » / Relacionamento • Acquisition of brand equity  Intangible « asset » 57% awareness in Brazilian hospitals Brand Status Wound Care – i consult Fiscal Customs & Administr ative Finance Commerci al Regulator y
  • 12. Complexity of the market means: need for customization Full Line of products adapted to Brazilian market requirements Fiscal Customs & Administr ative Finance Commerci al Regulator y
  • 13. Complexity of the market means: need to capitalize on Human Capital Expertise General Director Alexandre Tepas HR Manager Vacant Quality & RA Mgr Nesser Oliveira CFO Johann Wasserer Commercial Manager Luciana Amorim R&D Supervisor Celia Reimberg Production Supervisor Fabio Ferreira Marketing Mgr Jean-Michel Moisant Executive Secretary Inês Morais Industrial Perimeter Other Perimeters Stable Since 2011
  • 14. Complexity of funding means: need to be eligible for grants • The financing costs are high in Brazil => Cost of financing ~ 16% • R&D project with counterpart  FINEP grants • Innovation project • 3mR$ research grant for 3 years • 1mR$ counterpart Fiscal Customs & Administr ative Finance Commerci al Regulator y
  • 15. In the future it, it will be necessary not to be passive vs. legislation changes Balance point Productivity Local content Protectionnism Liberalization
  • 16. Alternative Scenarios: Starting Up From Scratch Lower 5 years sales ramp up • No access door to the Wound Care distribution network • No tender process knowledge • No Brand Equity in Brazil Delayed sales activation => 2015 • Set up affiliate • Certification ANVISA (36 months) • Product registrations (12 months) No critical mass to absorb fixed cost • General Manager • Sales force • Technical responsibility required by ANVISA
  • 17. Alternative Scenarios: Starting Up From Scratch R$ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 P&L - - - - 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 Total Gross Revenues 0 0 0 0 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 Growth 134,8% 62,0% 33,1% Sales Taxes - - - - (330 967) (744 323) (1 190 083) (1 567 432) Sales Taxes % of Gross Sales -18% -17% -17% -16% Net Sales 0 0 0 0 1 559 268 3 694 058 5 999 396 8 002 964 Growth 136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 20% 15% COGS & Distributor margin - - - - (514 004) (1 407 747) (2 375 851) (3 265 301) Gross Margin 0 0 0 0 1 045 264 2 286 311 3 623 545 4 737 664 %Net Sales 67% 62% 60% 59% Total Transports+Logistics - - - - (77 963) (184 703) (299 970) (400 148) % Net Sales -5% -5% -5% -5% Marge C 0 0 0 0 967 301 2 101 608 3 323 575 4 337 515 %Net Sales 62% 57% 55% 54% Direct selling costs / general sales expenses - - - - (93 556) (221 643) (359 964) (480 178) %Net sales -6% -6% -6% -6% Product Contribution 0 0 0 0 873 745 1 879 965 2 963 611 3 857 337 CP %Net Sales 56% 51% 49% 48% Technical Manager (34 125) (136 500) (143 325) (150 491) (158 016) (165 917) (174 212) (182 923) Product Manager Curatec/Urgo - - - (64 350) (135 135) (141 892) (148 986) (156 436) National Sales Manager - - - (152 750) (320 775) (336 814) (353 654) (371 337) Regional Managers - - - (284 700) (597 870) (627 764) (659 152) (692 109) Nurses (Technical experts) - - - (202 800) (851 760) (1 277 640) (1 341 522) (1 408 598) Direction's Assistant - - (29 348) (58 695) (61 630) (64 711) (67 947) (71 344) Total Personnel URGO MEDICAL (34 125) (136 500) (172 673) (913 786) (2 125 186) (2 614 737) (2 745 474) (2 882 747) %Net sales -136% -71% -46% -36% Cabinet reglementaire - - (10 000) (10 000) (10 000) (10 000) - - Regulatory/Registration budget (188 800) (94 400) - - - - - - Operations expenses (188 800) (211 400) (142 000) (197 000) (152 000) (202 000) - - %Net sales -10% -5% 0% 0% IT - SAP - - - - - (598 000) (150 000) (150 000) IT - CRM - - - - - (180 000) (90 000) (90 000) IT expenses - - - - - (778 000) (240 000) (240 000) %Net sales 0% -21% -4% -3% Création de Structure (100 000) - - - - - - - HR budget / Head hunting - - - (200 720) - - - - Accounting - - - (60 000) (120 000) - - - Lawyers (contracts…) - - - (50 000) (25 000) (12 500) (12 500) (12 500) External Services (100 000) - - (310 720) (145 000) (12 500) (12 500) (12 500) Rental - (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) (180 000) %Net sales -12% -5% -3% -2% Total G&A Urgo Medical (322 925) (527 900) (494 673) (1 601 506) (2 602 186) (3 787 237) (3 177 974) (3 315 247) %Net sales -167% -103% -53% -41% Growth 63% -6% 224% 62% 46% -16% 4% EBITDA (322 925) (527 900) (494 673) (1 601 506) (1 728 441) (1 907 272) (214 362) 542 090 EBITDA %Net Sales -111% -52% -4% 7% Growth 63,5% -6,3% 223,8% -7,9% 10,3% -88,8% -352,9% VALORISATION en R$ 2011-2018 Somme des FCF actualisés -4 878 301 Valeur terminale 147 453 Valeur d'entreprise -R$ 4 730 848 NPV Acquisition = 15.3 mR$ WACC = 17%
  • 18. Alternative Scenarios: Distribution Model Lower 5 years sales ramp up • More common approach => less risky and less capital intensive • Still no Brand Equity in Brazil => 50% of sales forecasts vs. acquisition Delayed sales activation => 2014 • Time to identify the right partner (12 months) • Product registrations (18 months) Light cost structure • No structural costs • All operational costs absorbed by the distributor • Only registration & IP cost paid by URGO (remains owner of assets)
  • 19. Alternative Scenarios: Distribution Model NPV Acquisition = 15.3 mR$ WACC = 17% VALORISATION en R$ 2011-2018 Somme des FCF actualisés 1 170 904 Valeur terminale 5 818 301 Valeur d'entreprise R$ 6 989 205 R$ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 P&L - - - 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 11 005 955 Total Gross Revenues 0 0 0 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 11 005 955 Growth 134,8% 62,0% 25,0% 15,0% Sales Taxes - - - (330 967) (744 323) (1 190 083) (1 567 432) (1 705 915) Sales Taxes % of Gross Sales -18% -17% -17% -16% -15% Net Sales 0 0 0 1 559 268 3 694 058 5 999 396 8 002 964 9 300 041 Growth 136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2% 20% 15% COGS & Distributor margin - - - (1 013 524) (2 401 138) (3 899 607) (5 201 927) (6 045 026) Gross Margin 0 0 0 545 744 1 292 920 2 099 789 2 801 037 3 255 014 %Net Sales 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% Total Transports+Logistics - - - (77 963) (184 703) (299 970) (400 148) (465 002) % Net Sales -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% Marge C 0 0 0 467 780 1 108 217 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012 %Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Cabinet reglementaire (40 000) (20 000) - - - - Regulatory/Registration budget (188 800) (94 400) - - - - Operations expenses (228 800) (114 400) - - - - - - %Net sales 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EBITDA (228 800) (114 400) - 467 780 1 108 218 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012 EBITDA %Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Growth -50,0% -100,0% -136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2% Total Gross Revenues 0 0 0 1 890 235 4 438 382 7 189 479 9 570 396 11 005 955 Growth 134,8% 62,0% 25,0% 15,0% Sales Taxes - - - (330 967) (744 323) (1 190 083) (1 567 432) (1 705 915) Sales Taxes % of Gross Sales -18% -17% -17% -16% -15% Net Sales 0 0 0 1 559 268 3 694 058 5 999 396 8 002 964 9 300 041 Growth 136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2% 20% 15% COGS & Distributor margin - - - (1 013 524) (2 401 138) (3 899 607) (5 201 927) (6 045 026) Gross Margin 0 0 0 545 744 1 292 920 2 099 789 2 801 037 3 255 014 %Net Sales 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% Total Transports+Logistics - - - (77 963) (184 703) (299 970) (400 148) (465 002) % Net Sales -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% Marge C 0 0 0 467 780 1 108 217 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012 %Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Cabinet reglementaire (40 000) (20 000) - - - - Regulatory/Registration budget (188 800) (94 400) - - - - Operations expenses (228 800) (114 400) - - - - - - %Net sales 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EBITDA (228 800) (114 400) - 467 780 1 108 218 1 799 819 2 400 889 2 790 012 EBITDA %Net Sales 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Growth -50,0% -100,0% -136,9% 62,4% 33,4% 16,2%
  • 20. Conclusion Starting Up From Scratch • 1st positive cash flows & break even (EBITDA > 0) 6 years after “Go Live” • NPV remains negative even with 6 years perspective Distributor Model • EBITDA > 0 and positive cash flow from year 1 Acquisition Model NPV “from scratch” = - 4,7 mR$ NPV “Distributor” = + 7 mR$ NPV “Acquistion” = + 15.3 mR$ Greater value… but higher risk!
  • 21. Brazil perseption from 2009 to 2015 – The Economist point of view 2009 2013 2014 2015
  • 22. Brazil is losing ground vs. other emerging economies • Average growth of 1,2% since the end of the crisis (2011-2014) vs. 3,5% on the period 2002-2008 • Average growth 2011-2015 ~ 0% • Potential growth limited to 2,5% according to FMI
  • 23. Macro-economic Scenario in 2015  Recession expected at [-2,5% ; -3%] including all factors. -1,9% in Q2 after - 0,7% in Q1 (technical recession)  Last 12m inflation reaches 9,56% in July  SELIC rate reaches 14,25%  Exchange rate evolution  Unemployment rate moved from 5,3 to 7,5% (Av. 2001-2015: 8,4%) 2014 2015 Var. Spot Sept. Var. € 3,12 3,44 10,3% 4,28 37,2% USD 2,34 3,09 32,1% 3,83 63,7% Average
  • 24. Historial excange rate BRL vs. USD – SÉRIE BANCO CENTRAL FONTE: BACEN, BLOOMBERG ELABORAÇÃO: BRADESCO 2,34 3,82 4,82 3,96 6,12 4,39 1,98 2,33 2,74 3,74 3,00 3,17 1,8 2,3 2,8 3,3 3,8 4,3 4,8 5,3 5,8 6,3 6,8 set/93 mar/94 set/94 mar/95 set/95 mar/96 set/96 mar/97 set/97 mar/98 set/98 mar/99 set/99 mar/00 set/00 mar/01 set/01 mar/02 set/02 mar/03 set/03 mar/04 set/04 mar/05 set/05 mar/06 set/06 mar/07 set/07 mar/08 set/08 mar/09 set/09 mar/10 set/10 mar/11 set/11 mar/12 set/12 mar/13 set/13 mar/14 set/14 mar/15 set/15 1988 - 2015 1999 - 2015 2,98 média de 2006 Acquisition LM Farma => 1€ = 2,20 BRL 1 USD = 2 BRL
  • 25. Is the BRL currency correction near from the end?  The most expensive Big Mac in the world… The « Big Mac » index - 2015 (Comparaison vs. €, adjusted to purchase power)  …but a progressive return to normal 25
  • 26. Brazil is still a Strategic & Promising Market for SME & Multinational  Brazil is a key market  7th GDP worldwide in 2014 (possibly 9th at end of 2015, after India & Italy)  The FDI should be maintained in 2015, around 65MdsUSD  Resilience of the class C consumption  Strong economics pillars  Giant in the agriculture and mining industry: 4th Agro exporter worldwide  Despite Petrobras crisis, the country remains an important reserve of Oil&gaz (potentially the 6th producer in 2035)  Strong Brazilian industrial corporations: Petrobras, Vale, Embraer…  Brazilian ability to resist to systemic shock is reassuring  Currency reserves = 371 MdsUSD beginning of 2015  Reasonable debt level (1,424 Mds USD, i.e. 65% of GDP ; 70% expected in 2016)
  • 27. Brazil is still a Strategic & Promising Market for SME & Multinational FDI remain high Cumulative 12 months– b$ Source: Banque centrale 66,4 b$ 2015
  • 28. 28 The BRL devaluation has fiercely hampered the Legacy profitability EUR GBP USD % Purchases 28% 18% 8% Forex 2011-2015 2,2-3,22 BRL -37% -61%2,68-4,33 BRL 1,67-2,86 BRL -71% Gross Margin Impact Transaction effect BRL 46% EUR GBP USD Impact on EBIT Translation effect & Transaction effect -6 ppts 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 janv.-11 juin-11 nov.-11 avr.-12 sept.-12 févr.-13 juil.-13 déc.-13 mai-14 oct.-14 mars-15 EURO USD GBP Fierce Forex Impact since 2011 -6pts on Gross Margin -4 pts on EBITDA
  • 29. 2011 2015 Var. Comment Sales forecast 100 100 Similar sales forecast EBITDA 20 16 Forex impact on EBITDA %: -3pts EBITDA ratio 9,0 10,0 Source: Mergemarket Price 180 160 -11% Forex 2,2 4,3 95% Sales forecast 45 23 EBITDA 9,1 3,7 Price 82 37 -54% Ratio 9,0 10,0 BRL € This is PROBABLY the right time to perform acquisition in Brazil  Acquisition multiples are stable vs. 5 years ago (avg. 10x EBITDA)  € is 90% stronger than 4 years ago vs. BRL  Making an acquisition in Brazil for a European company is 2x cheaper than it was 4 years ago  Macroeconomics: Brazil is at a low-point in terms of GDP growth, mid-term growth is expected at 2%  Crisis = Opportunities of Targets  Companies with profitability issues: scissors effect low sales growth vs. high inflation of costs  Companies with cash issues: increased interest rates and diminution of public incentives for financing (BNDES)  Financial perspectives are bad for year to come (tax increases, end of social charge incentive)
  • 30. Conclusion  An acquisition is the fastest way to enter developing markets  Strategy particularly efficent in Brazil vis a vis the entry barriers  When structuring an acquisition, need to chose between forex exposure or local debt (i.e. high interest rates)  Lessons of the Urgo case: BP in BRL is on track… but strong adverse impact of forex (Killing the project NPV) and of macro-economical situation in 2015  Today, Brazil economic situation is at a low-point and risk of additional BRL devaluation is low  Some Brazilian companies are in a critical situation  The € is strong It is the moment to purchase!!