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CASI Lok Survey March 28 Presentation
- 1. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion India Decides 2014 Results from the Lok Pre-Election Survey Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav March 28, 2014 Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 2. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Lok Surveys Goal: To understand the social and political reconfigurations taking place across India today Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 3. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Lok Surveys Goal: To understand the social and political reconfigurations taking place across India today q q q q Delhi Kolkata Chennai Mumbai Multi-year panel of 65,000+ households in 24 states and UTs Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 4. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Lok Surveys Goal: To understand the social and political reconfigurations taking place across India today q q q q Delhi Kolkata Chennai Mumbai Multi-year panel of 65,000+ households in 24 states and UTs Oct-Dec 2013 – Pre-Election Survey Jan-Mar 2014 – Aspirations and Anxieties Survey Jun-Jul 2014 – Post-Election Survey Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 5. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Roadmap The Electoral Horse-Race Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 6. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Roadmap The Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter? 1 Regionalism is Surging 2 Good Economics = Good Politics 3 Voters are fed up with dynasties 4 Lack of information breeds criminality 5 Vote your caste, not cast your vote Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 7. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Context Three principles: Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 8. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Context Three principles: India is a stable democracy Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 9. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Context Three principles: India is a stable democracy Electoral outcomes in India are volatile Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 10. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Lok Surveys Roadmap Context Context Three principles: India is a stable democracy Electoral outcomes in India are volatile Politics means leaders and parties, not voters Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 11. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Bottom Line Statewise Changes Demographic Impacts Caveats Bottom Line 010203040 VoteShare NDA 31 UPA 23 Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 12. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Bottom Line Statewise Changes Demographic Impacts Caveats Bottom Line CSDS (7/2013) Lok (4Q/2013) CSDS (1/2014) HT-‐ Cvoter (1/2014) Times-‐ Cvoter (1/2014) ABP-‐ Nielsen (2/2014) NDTV-‐ Hansa (3/2014) UPA 29% 23% 28% 23% 22% 23% 27% NDA 29% 31% 36% 34% 36% 31% 30% Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 13. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Bottom Line Statewise Changes Demographic Impacts Caveats Big NDA Gains 8% 12% 11% 15% 7% 11% 6% 9% 0% -‐7% 13% 5% 9% 23% 0% WB UP TN RAJ PUN ORI MP MAH KER KAR HAR GUJ CTG BIH AP Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 14. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Bottom Line Statewise Changes Demographic Impacts Caveats Big UPA Losses 4% -‐9% -‐3% -‐10% -‐8% 0% -‐9% -‐7% -‐4% 1% -‐22% -‐6% -‐13% 9% -‐22% WB UP TN RAJ PUN ORI MP MAH KER KAR HAR GUJ CTG BIH AP Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 15. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Bottom Line Statewise Changes Demographic Impacts Caveats Rural-Urban Breakdown 24% 22% 23% 24% 28% 33% 27% 32% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Rural illiterate Rural literate Urban illiterate Urban literate UPA NDA Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 16. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Bottom Line Statewise Changes Demographic Impacts Caveats Social Group Breakdown 19% 21% 21% 31% 35% 42% 35% 25% 23% 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Upper Caste OBC SC ST Muslims UPA NDA Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 17. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Bottom Line Statewise Changes Demographic Impacts Caveats Caveats Campaign Effects Candidates Alliances Strategic Voting Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 18. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Regionalism is Rising? Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 19. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Current Predictions CSDS (7/2013) Lok (4Q/2013) CSDS (1/2014) HT-‐ Cvoter (1/2014) Times-‐ Cvoter (1/2014) ABP-‐ Nielsen (2/2014) NDTV-‐ Hansa (3/2014) UPA 29% 23% 28% 23% 22% 23% 27% NDA 29% 31% 36% 34% 36% 31% 30% UPA + NDA 58% 54% 64% 57% 58% 54% 57% Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 20. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Reversal of Fortune 31.5% 23.0% 21.5% 31.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2009 (actual) 2014 (projected) UPA NDA Voteshare Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 21. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Good Economics = Good Politics 25% 21% 18% 14% 8% 7% 5% 3% Economic Growth Corruption In9lation Personal Income Law and Order Access to Govt Bene9its Leadership Identity Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 22. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Growth: Large State-to-State Variation 43% 43% 41% 38% 32% 31% 28% 22% 21% 20% 19% 17% 13% 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% CTG PUN GUJ WB RAJ TN KER KAR AP MP HAR MAH UP BIH Shareofrespondentsinfluencedby growth Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 23. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Top Issues by State Kerala 43% Chha,sgarh 43% Maharashtra 29% Bihar 40% Punjab 43% Haryana 25% U?ar Pradesh 33% Gujarat 41% Andhra Pradesh 26% West Bengal 38% Madhya Pradesh 25% Rajasthan 32% Tamil Nadu 31% Karnataka 22% Corruption Economic growth Inflation/price rise Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 24. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Are Muslim Voters Different? 9% 14% 21% 3% 21% 7% 4% 22% 7% 14% 21% 3% 18% 8% 5% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Access to Govt Personal Incom e Corruption Identity InAlation Law and Order Leadership Econom ic Grow th Muslims All-‐India Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 25. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Bharat vs India? 9% 16% 19% 2% 19% 8% 4% 23% 5% 12% 23% 4% 17% 6% 6% 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Access to Govt Personal Incom e Corruption Identity InBlation Law and Order Leadership Econom ic Grow th rural urban Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 26. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Dynasticism among MPs 20% 80% 2004 Dynastic ties No dynastic ties 29% 71% 2009 Dynastic ties No dynastic ties Source: Simon Chauchard, Kanchan Chandra, and Anjali Thomas Bohlken (2009) Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 27. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Dynastic Preference Among Voters 54% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% No Yes % prefer to vote for dynas/c candidate Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 28. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Why Voters Prefer Dynasties Reason Percent Better at doing politics because it is their occupation 45% Likely to succeed because of greater exposure to politics 40% Makes it easier to deliver services 15% Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 29. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Criminal MPs% of Lok Sabha Members of Parliament 15% 19% 24% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2004 2009 Serious charge Minor charge Source: Vaishnav (2014) Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 30. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Sensitive Question: List Experiment How many of the following trouble you? Control Group Experimental Group 1. Wealthy Candidate 2. Poor Candidate 3. Independent Candidate 1. Wealthy Candidate 2. Poor Candidate 3. Independent Candidate Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 31. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Sensitive Question: List Experiment How many of the following trouble you? 1. Wealthy Candidate 2. Poor Candidate 3. Independent Candidate 4. Candidate with serious criminal charges who delivers bene?its to you 1. Wealthy Candidate 2. Poor Candidate 3. Independent Candidate Control Group Experimental Group Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 32. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Support for Criminal Candidates 48% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% List Experiment Direct Question % willing to vote for candidate with serious charges Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 33. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Effect on Support for Criminals AP BIH CTG GUJ HAR KAR KER MAH MP ORI PUN RAJ TN UP WB 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Support for candidates with serious charges 2009 Candidates with serious criminal charges Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 34. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Identity Ranks Last 25% 21% 18% 14% 8% 7% 5% 3% Economic Growth Corruption In9lation Personal Income Law and Order Access to Govt Bene9its Leadership Identity Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 35. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Caste Preference and Bias 46% 36% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Co-‐ethnic af5inity Ethnic bias % of respondents demonstra.ng “bias” Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 36. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Caste Bias: List Experiment How many of the following trouble you? • A corrupt candidate wins • An uneducated candidate wins • An educated candidate wins • A [Upper Caste/OBC/SC] candidate wins • A corrupt candidate wins • An uneducated candidate wins • An educated candidate wins Control Group Experimental Group Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 37. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Caste Bias Results 36% 57% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Ethnic bias (direct) Ethnic bias (list) % of respondents demonstra.ng “bias” Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 38. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Regionalism is Rising Good Economics = Good Politics Fed up with Dynasties Lack of Information Breeds Criminal Politicians Vote your Caste, not Cast your Vote Identity Predicts Votes, not Electoral Outcomes 26% 42% 25% 35% 17% 25% 23% 23% 9% 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 Upper Caste OBC SC ST Muslim % of respondents vo-ng for NDA Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 39. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Conclusion Indian society is changing, and with it, preferences of voters Classic rural-urban divide is getting blurred Social bias continues be endemic in India Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 40. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Conclusion Social biases move slowly, but electoral outcomes predicted by contingent issues This election is a vote for change with far-reaching consequences Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 41. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Conclusion Social biases move slowly, but electoral outcomes predicted by contingent issues This election is a vote for change with far-reaching consequences ...But we will not really know until mid-May Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014
- 42. Introduction Electoral Horse-Race Five Myths of the Indian Voter Conclusion Thank you Web: indiaintransition.com casi.sas.upenn.edu carnegieendowment.org Twitter: @CASIPenn @MilanV @NeelanjanSircar Devesh Kapur, Neelanjan Sircar & Milan Vaishnav India Decides 2014