1. South Asian Parliamentarians and Policymaker’s SubRegional Conference, 16-18th December 2013 Islamabad
Water Security in climate constrained
South Asia,
Javeria Afzal, Oxfam Pakistan

2. Water stress a regional problem

3. South Asia: extreme water stress
• Pakistan and Afghanistan are no 32 and 37 on global list
of countries with extremely high levels of baseline
(normal) water stress.
• Over 80% of the water available to their agriculture,
domestic & industrial users is withdrawn annually:
leaving their farms, businesses, communities vulnerable
to periods of scarcity.
• This vulnerability will increase due to climate
change leading to an increased number of people
living under severe water stress of 120 million to 1.2
billion by the 2020s

4. Real issue is our response to water stress
• All South Asia countries with high water stress also
have inadequate or inappropriate water governance:
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India.
• Afghanistan & Pakistan have worst water governance in
Asia, except for Myanmar.
• “If some of the Asian developing… countries face a
water crisis in the future it will not be because of
physical scarcity of water, but because of inadequate or
inappropriate water governance…. Major and
fundamental changes in water governance practices
are needed in nearly all.”

5. Governance =
create & maintain water security

6. What is water security?
1. Household water security
–
piped water access, sanitation needs, hygiene
2. Economic water security
–
sustain food-, industry & energy security
3. Urban water security
–
water services &management for vibrant cities
4. Environmental water security
–
river basin’s ability to sustain ecosystem services
5. Resilience to water-related
–
capacity to cope with and recover from water-related disasters

7. South Asia has record water insecurity
• South Asia has worst national water security in Asia. The
ADB calls South Asia a ‘hot spot’, where populations and
economies are adversely impacted by poor water security
• In Asia South Asian nations are least secure for households,
cities, environment, disaster resilience
–
example: 5 South Asian countries are in the bottom 7 on urban water
security in Asia, Bangladesh lowest of all.
– example: on an index measuring river health 9 Asian countries score lowest:
‘bad’, 4 of which in South Asia.
• South Asia is slightly more secure in its economic water
security than Central and West Asia.
Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’ 2013

8. Household water inequity highest in
South Asia
• 90-96% of rural rich Asia have access to sanitation, only
2-4% of the rural poor do;
• Differences poorer vs. richer communities are 96% in
Nepal, 92% in India and Pakistan
• 792 million people in Asia suffer the indignity of
practicing open defecation, 631 million of them in
South Asia
• 38% people in South Asia no access to sanitation. To
achieve MDG 10 (water & sanitation) a distant reality.
Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the
Pacific’ 2013

9. South Asia agriculture not water secure
• Attention to agriculture is most critical. Over 40% South Asia’s
arable land irrigated: key for national food security.
• Massive (subsidized) use of groundwater instrumental but
unsustainable. As water tables fall, e.g. in Pakistan and North
India, agriculture productivity is becoming insecure.
• Low agricultural water productivity + low per capita water
storage capacity
• Large irrigation systems underperforming in water services to
farmers and sustainability
Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’2013

10. Example: Pakistan household water
security
• Est. 25% population has access to safe & sufficient
drinking water, maybe 10% or less in rural areas.
(However there is lack of data on this).
• Only 3% Pakistan’s fresh water resources are used for
household purposes and drinking.
• Water related disease causes 14% illnesses children
under five. 200.000 children in Pakistan die every
year due to diarrhoeal diseases alone.
Source: The UN System in Pakistan: Water – a vital Source of Life 2003 page 63
and ActionAid “Drinking water crisis in Pakistan and the issue of bottled
water” 2005

11. South Asian agriculture not water secure
continued
• Particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate
variability, incl. increased frequency & severity
droughts & storms.
• Decreasing water quality limits water use, Saline soils
affect 20% of irrigated areas in Pakistan
Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the
Pacific’2013

12. Pakistan:
water insecurity = food insecurity
• water use efficiency in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. For
wheat, for example, it is 0.5 kg/m3 as compared to 1.0 kg/m3 in India and
1.5 kg/m3 in California.
• This has led to reduction in crop yields (overall 25 %, a high of 40-60 per
cent in Sindh) and lower overall agricultural productivity.
• Water shortage, lack of inputs, poor irrigation practices and soil
salinisation are the major factors for low crop yields.
• The poor tend to spend a high proportion of their income, perhaps 50-80
per cent, on food consumption and water.
• To meet Pakistan food requirements, wheat cultivated area has to increase
by 46%. Given the present water availability, this does not seem possible.
Only way to achieve this food target is increase water use productivity.
Source: Asad Sarwar Qureshi: Efficiency in irrigation water use. Dawn.com 2013

13. South Asia floods and droughts:
high risk, low capacity
•
•
Resilience = a country’s exposure to disaster related risks and its capacity to
overcome such disasters
Asia subregions prone to water related disasters: affected people globally from
1980-2006: 90% in Asia
Source: Adikari and J. Yoshitani. 2009. ‘Global trends in water-related disasters: an insight for policymakers.
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001817/181793E.pdf?bcsi_scan_97e98328e2b67804=0&bcsi_
scan_filename=181793E.pdf
•
ADB’s national resilience index: bottom 4 Asian countries include Pakistan and
Bangladesh. This costs lives and massive economic loss;
– Bangladesh: highest rates of water-related fatalities in Asia: frequent floods, storm
surges, rising sea levels (40% of highly populated land lies below 10 m above sea level);
– Pakistan: extensive flooding in 2010 and 2011;
Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’2013

14. Climate change lowers resilience
• Climate change induced glacial melt will cause more flood risk, substantial
reductions in dry season flow, negative impact on downstream agriculture
relying on irrigation;
• Continued melting glaciers could seriously affect half a billion people in
the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush region and 250 million people in China who
depend on glacial melt for water supplies
• Sea level rise of 40 cm will increase the annual number of people flooded
in coastal populations from 13 million to 94 million and almost 60% of this
increase will occur in South Asia (along coasts from Pakistan, through
India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to Burma) (Wassmann et al., 2004)
Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ’The science of AR5 WG1 and the
Consequences; Region by Region; Future Climate Change and Impacts South Asia’ September 2013

15. National policy needs
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mobilise general public for equitable & just access to water and sanitation.
Stimulate self mobilisation. Create broad public awareness and policy support on
climate change adaptation, for example the preparedness to water disasters;
Invest water users with real joint responsibility for sustainable and equitable water
management incl. democratic self management at local levels;
Create and monitor effective and accountable transsectoral, integrated national to
local governance plans and institutions;
Secure and show effective, accountable, national to local implementation of laws,
policies for integrated water resources management;
Start managing groundwater as a valuable and limited resource;
Revitalise irrigation, to focus its services on farmers and sustainability,
Fund, help establish and monitor institutions and systems to collect, share &
analyse data, esp. at rural household and community levels: on water access, risks,
trends & forecasts, local adaptation expertise and vulnerability. Local to national
policies are not informed by facts;

16. Thank you!