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State of the Industry
500e Demo Day @ CALSTART HQ
April 30, 2013
CALSTART Leadership Circle
June 5, 2013
States of the Industry
Outline
»LDV Developments and Policies
»M-HDV Developments and
Policies
»Low Carbon Fuel Policy in CA
»Building Fleet Momentum
»New CALSTART Initiatives
Indy Engines Downsizing
»Approximately 35% of
nationwide EV sales in CA
»Demand for CA EV
incentives approx. $1
million/week
Doing What Kaiser, Tucker, and Bricklin Could Not?
What is Propelling CA EV Market?
» Widest array of EV products in nation
» Financial incentives
» HOV lane access
» Expanding workplace and public charging
» Tesla image – rich, cool, eco
» ZEV mandate
2 Bills Pending In CA Legislature - $2B
in Funding for Clean Transportation
SB 11 (Pavley, Canella) & AB 8 (Perea, Skinner):
Extend CA clean vehicle and fuel incentive
funding thru 2023
Join the List of Supporters! Contact: Jamie Hall,
CALSTART Policy Director
jhall@calstart.org or (510) 307-8774
Senator Fran
Pavley
Assemblyman
Henry Perea
What is the exit strategy for
CA EV incentives?
CALSTART Headquarters, Solar Installation Celebration – June 25, 2012
Solar Saving $ for CALSTART
Is there a market for ZEV
credits?
Tesla generated $40 million
in ZEV credit revenue in
2012
EV Pricing Improving
Electric Spark - $20,000 after federal tax credit
Lease or Buy With or Without Owning
the Battery
DC Fast Charger Network
Growing Faster Than Expected
System costs dropping – Nissan
reports $18K for 440V system
» Chrysler/Fiat Partnership with Enterprise
» 12 free rental days/year
New venture backed by
Chargepoint and Ecotality to
facilitate interoperability among
EVSE
www.collaboratev.com
H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Improving
CA Legislation to Extend CA Clean
Vehicle Incentives
»H2 stations - <10% of the funding
»But 50% of the questions and
controversy
ARB HVIP Voucher Requests
FY11 and FY12 Programs
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Voucher Funding Requested FY11 Program Funding FY12 Program Funding
Only $500,000 remaining in
HVIP fund today
Hino Hybrid – 2 Year Payback
U.S. E-Truck Sales Follow Incentives –
NY, MD, CA and Chicago
Governor Brown at event announcing nation’s
largest electric truck fleet – July 2012
First Zero Emission Bus in Revenue
Service in CA’s Central Valley
CEC AB 118 Project
BYD Opens E-Bus Plant
in California
Hybrid + Biodiesel Even Better
Powers Distributing compliments its hybrid
investment with extensive use of bio-diesel fuel,
pouring B20 in the warmer summer months and B5
in the winter.
As Fred Dufour looks out at Monarch Beverage’s diesel fueling
station, he knows that in only a couple of years, it will nearly
be all gone. “The need for diesel, that is.” -- Trucking Info.,
March 19, 2013
» 1 million gallons of diesel today
» 100,000 gallons of diesel & 85% CNG in 2015 1,500
tons fewer of GHG’s by 2015
» 60% lower fuel costs per year = $2.5 million in savings
» 2.3 year payback
North America:
Natural Gas Offerings for the Trucking
Market
29
GVW ≤ 66,000 lbs. ≤ 80,000 lbs. ≥ 80,000 lbs.
Engine size 8.9L 11.9L 15L
Current engines ISL G ISX12 G Westport 15L
*Polk database of new truck sales based on 2011 registrations, Westport analysis
Kenworth
T440 T470 T660 T800B T800SH W900S
9 9 12 15 12 9/12
Peterbilt
320 382 384 365 367 386 388
9/12 9 9/12 9/12 15 15 15
Freightliner
M2 - 112 SD - 114 Cascadia
9 9 12
Volvo
VNM VNL
9 12
Navistar
TranStar
9
Mack
Granite / Pinnacle
12
legend
9
CWI ISL G 9L
12
CWI ISX12 G
15
Westport 15L
CNG In A Box
»Low NG prices related to
increased supply
»30% of USA NG from shale
gas
Is Fracking Controversy Over?
» MIT Study: environmental risks can
be minimal if industry adopts best
practices
» NRDC/EDF and other environmental
groups remain highly concerned
California Hybrid, Efficient Advanced
Truck (CalHEAT) Research Center
Comprehensive Study to Determine If and
How Truck Sector Could Significantly
Reduce Emissions by 2030 – and Be On
Pathway to Meet State’s 2050 Goals
www.calheat.org
6 Truck Categories – Based on Tech Applicability
• Younger Trucks; High Annual VMT
• Mostly higher average speed, highway driving
• Between cities; Drayage; Day Cabs
• Includes second use trucks; trucks with smaller engines
Over the Road
Short Haul/
Regional
• Cargo, freight, delivery collection
• Lower VMT; Lower Average speed; Lots of stop start
Urban
• Cargo, freight, delivery collection
• Higher VMT; Higher Avg speed; Combined urban/ highway
Rural/
Intracity
• Utility trucks, construction, etc.
• Lots of idle time; Lots of PTO use
Work site
support
∙ Commercial use; Automotive OEMs & volumes
Pickups/
Vans
Class 2B/3
Class 3-8 Vocational Work Trucks
Class 7/8 Tractors
Drivetrain Technology Adoption
All Truck Categories
CO2 Reduction from Roadmap
EPA/NHTSA Beginning Work Now
on 2nd Round of Truck HDV GHG
Standards
Completed by 2015
LCFS Credit Prices - 2012
Graph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013.
Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdf
Graph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013.
Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdf
Environmental markets (under “likely”
price scenarios) could make up 25%-
30% of revenues from dairy biogas
transportation fuel project.
»Source: ClimateTrust Presentation,
May 2013
Can fleets help
jumpstart clean fuel
vehicle market?
Bringing the Products and Info to the
Fleets
» First Regional HTUF Meeting – Birmingham, AL
» Date: May 22, 2013
» Interest in California Regional Meeting(s) from
several organizations
» Timing: SoCal – July, NoCal - TBD
» New York Regional Meeting
» Timing: Aug/Sep 2013
Co-Host & Sponsorship opportunities still available!
Southeast Regional Fleet Meeting
May 22, 2013 -
May 22, 2013
NAFA-CALSTART Activities
» National Association of
Fleet Administrators
(NAFA) – nation’s
largest fleet
organization
» As part of partnership,
CALSTART hosted 4-
session Fleet
Sustainability Track at
NAFA annual Institute
and Expo
» Developing fleet
sustainability “metrics”
for NAFA training,
accreditation
Fleet Goals From Just One Sector
» Coca Cola: Reduce C02 Footprint 15% by 2020
» Pepsi: Beginning in 2010 - Grow 3% per year
but cut oil dependence by 50% by 2020
» Monarch Beverage: 85% Natural Gas by 2015
Smart Incentives to Move the Market:
States Leading
CALSTART Won Contract to Manage New York”s
$19M Voucher Incentive Program (NYT VIP) in June
for hybrid, electric and natural gas trucks
CALSTART Investor Council (CIC)
new initiative to
increase
successful private
sector
investment in
clean
transportation
tech
Fall HTUF Meeting in Midwest
Location: Chicago, IL Target Timing: Week of Oct 6, ‘13
Focus:
• CTAG/MTAG updates
• WG Meetings/Report-Outs
• Enhanced Ride-n-Drive with
Product Showcase
• Shift from Conference format
 Goal: Action & Impact!
Get involved by contacting Kimberly Taylor
at ktaylor@calstart.org
CALSTART HQ
Nor Cal
Office Colorado Office
Midwest Office
NE Office
Regional Sounding – Nationally Acting
CALSTART Regional Offices
Clean Transportation Technologies and Jobs
?’s
Cleaner And Better
www.calstart.org
jboesel@calstart.org
Daniel Yergin Lecture
» The law of long-term development
» Disagree with IEA that 96MBBD will be peak
production #
» 100 year break for EV’s

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CALSTART Presentation - Boesel

  • 1. State of the Industry 500e Demo Day @ CALSTART HQ April 30, 2013 CALSTART Leadership Circle June 5, 2013 States of the Industry
  • 2. Outline »LDV Developments and Policies »M-HDV Developments and Policies »Low Carbon Fuel Policy in CA »Building Fleet Momentum »New CALSTART Initiatives
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. »Approximately 35% of nationwide EV sales in CA »Demand for CA EV incentives approx. $1 million/week
  • 7. Doing What Kaiser, Tucker, and Bricklin Could Not?
  • 8. What is Propelling CA EV Market? » Widest array of EV products in nation » Financial incentives » HOV lane access » Expanding workplace and public charging » Tesla image – rich, cool, eco » ZEV mandate
  • 9. 2 Bills Pending In CA Legislature - $2B in Funding for Clean Transportation SB 11 (Pavley, Canella) & AB 8 (Perea, Skinner): Extend CA clean vehicle and fuel incentive funding thru 2023 Join the List of Supporters! Contact: Jamie Hall, CALSTART Policy Director jhall@calstart.org or (510) 307-8774 Senator Fran Pavley Assemblyman Henry Perea
  • 10. What is the exit strategy for CA EV incentives?
  • 11.
  • 12. CALSTART Headquarters, Solar Installation Celebration – June 25, 2012 Solar Saving $ for CALSTART
  • 13. Is there a market for ZEV credits? Tesla generated $40 million in ZEV credit revenue in 2012
  • 14. EV Pricing Improving Electric Spark - $20,000 after federal tax credit
  • 15. Lease or Buy With or Without Owning the Battery
  • 16. DC Fast Charger Network Growing Faster Than Expected System costs dropping – Nissan reports $18K for 440V system
  • 17. » Chrysler/Fiat Partnership with Enterprise » 12 free rental days/year
  • 18. New venture backed by Chargepoint and Ecotality to facilitate interoperability among EVSE www.collaboratev.com
  • 19. H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Improving
  • 20. CA Legislation to Extend CA Clean Vehicle Incentives »H2 stations - <10% of the funding »But 50% of the questions and controversy
  • 21. ARB HVIP Voucher Requests FY11 and FY12 Programs $0 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Voucher Funding Requested FY11 Program Funding FY12 Program Funding Only $500,000 remaining in HVIP fund today
  • 22. Hino Hybrid – 2 Year Payback
  • 23. U.S. E-Truck Sales Follow Incentives – NY, MD, CA and Chicago Governor Brown at event announcing nation’s largest electric truck fleet – July 2012
  • 24. First Zero Emission Bus in Revenue Service in CA’s Central Valley CEC AB 118 Project
  • 25. BYD Opens E-Bus Plant in California
  • 26. Hybrid + Biodiesel Even Better Powers Distributing compliments its hybrid investment with extensive use of bio-diesel fuel, pouring B20 in the warmer summer months and B5 in the winter.
  • 27. As Fred Dufour looks out at Monarch Beverage’s diesel fueling station, he knows that in only a couple of years, it will nearly be all gone. “The need for diesel, that is.” -- Trucking Info., March 19, 2013
  • 28. » 1 million gallons of diesel today » 100,000 gallons of diesel & 85% CNG in 2015 1,500 tons fewer of GHG’s by 2015 » 60% lower fuel costs per year = $2.5 million in savings » 2.3 year payback
  • 29. North America: Natural Gas Offerings for the Trucking Market 29 GVW ≤ 66,000 lbs. ≤ 80,000 lbs. ≥ 80,000 lbs. Engine size 8.9L 11.9L 15L Current engines ISL G ISX12 G Westport 15L *Polk database of new truck sales based on 2011 registrations, Westport analysis Kenworth T440 T470 T660 T800B T800SH W900S 9 9 12 15 12 9/12 Peterbilt 320 382 384 365 367 386 388 9/12 9 9/12 9/12 15 15 15 Freightliner M2 - 112 SD - 114 Cascadia 9 9 12 Volvo VNM VNL 9 12 Navistar TranStar 9 Mack Granite / Pinnacle 12 legend 9 CWI ISL G 9L 12 CWI ISX12 G 15 Westport 15L
  • 30. CNG In A Box
  • 31. »Low NG prices related to increased supply »30% of USA NG from shale gas
  • 32. Is Fracking Controversy Over? » MIT Study: environmental risks can be minimal if industry adopts best practices » NRDC/EDF and other environmental groups remain highly concerned
  • 33. California Hybrid, Efficient Advanced Truck (CalHEAT) Research Center Comprehensive Study to Determine If and How Truck Sector Could Significantly Reduce Emissions by 2030 – and Be On Pathway to Meet State’s 2050 Goals www.calheat.org
  • 34. 6 Truck Categories – Based on Tech Applicability • Younger Trucks; High Annual VMT • Mostly higher average speed, highway driving • Between cities; Drayage; Day Cabs • Includes second use trucks; trucks with smaller engines Over the Road Short Haul/ Regional • Cargo, freight, delivery collection • Lower VMT; Lower Average speed; Lots of stop start Urban • Cargo, freight, delivery collection • Higher VMT; Higher Avg speed; Combined urban/ highway Rural/ Intracity • Utility trucks, construction, etc. • Lots of idle time; Lots of PTO use Work site support ∙ Commercial use; Automotive OEMs & volumes Pickups/ Vans Class 2B/3 Class 3-8 Vocational Work Trucks Class 7/8 Tractors
  • 37. EPA/NHTSA Beginning Work Now on 2nd Round of Truck HDV GHG Standards Completed by 2015
  • 38. LCFS Credit Prices - 2012 Graph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013. Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdf Graph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013. Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdf
  • 39. Environmental markets (under “likely” price scenarios) could make up 25%- 30% of revenues from dairy biogas transportation fuel project. »Source: ClimateTrust Presentation, May 2013
  • 40.
  • 41. Can fleets help jumpstart clean fuel vehicle market?
  • 42. Bringing the Products and Info to the Fleets » First Regional HTUF Meeting – Birmingham, AL » Date: May 22, 2013 » Interest in California Regional Meeting(s) from several organizations » Timing: SoCal – July, NoCal - TBD » New York Regional Meeting » Timing: Aug/Sep 2013 Co-Host & Sponsorship opportunities still available!
  • 43. Southeast Regional Fleet Meeting May 22, 2013 - May 22, 2013
  • 44. NAFA-CALSTART Activities » National Association of Fleet Administrators (NAFA) – nation’s largest fleet organization » As part of partnership, CALSTART hosted 4- session Fleet Sustainability Track at NAFA annual Institute and Expo » Developing fleet sustainability “metrics” for NAFA training, accreditation
  • 45. Fleet Goals From Just One Sector » Coca Cola: Reduce C02 Footprint 15% by 2020 » Pepsi: Beginning in 2010 - Grow 3% per year but cut oil dependence by 50% by 2020 » Monarch Beverage: 85% Natural Gas by 2015
  • 46. Smart Incentives to Move the Market: States Leading CALSTART Won Contract to Manage New York”s $19M Voucher Incentive Program (NYT VIP) in June for hybrid, electric and natural gas trucks
  • 47. CALSTART Investor Council (CIC) new initiative to increase successful private sector investment in clean transportation tech
  • 48. Fall HTUF Meeting in Midwest Location: Chicago, IL Target Timing: Week of Oct 6, ‘13 Focus: • CTAG/MTAG updates • WG Meetings/Report-Outs • Enhanced Ride-n-Drive with Product Showcase • Shift from Conference format  Goal: Action & Impact! Get involved by contacting Kimberly Taylor at ktaylor@calstart.org
  • 49. CALSTART HQ Nor Cal Office Colorado Office Midwest Office NE Office Regional Sounding – Nationally Acting CALSTART Regional Offices
  • 51. ?’s
  • 53. Daniel Yergin Lecture » The law of long-term development » Disagree with IEA that 96MBBD will be peak production # » 100 year break for EV’s