The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget gave an overview of the latest COVID relief deal and how much it will boost incomes and economic growth, and discussed the proposal for $2,000 checks.

1. CRFB.org

2. CRFB.org
The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021
Ten-Year Cost
Discretionary Appropriations $1.41 trillion
Defense Discretionary Spending $672 billion
Non-Defense Discretionary Spending $627 billion
Overseas Contingency Operations $77 billion
Emergency and Disaster Related Spending $27 billion
Other Spending $4 billion
Response and Relief Act $935 billion
Aid to Small Businesses $325 billion
Education $82 billion
Extend and Augment Unemployment Benefits (+$300/week) for 11 weeks $120 billion
Stimulus checks of $600/person $166 billion
Health Care $69 billion
Transportation $45 billion
Other Spending $87 billion
Other Tax Cuts $40 billion
Tax Extenders ~$135 billion
Other Provisions (health extenders, surprise billing, etc) ?
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding

3. CRFB.org
Provision Ten-Year Cost
Aid to Small Businesses $325 billion
Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Second Draw $284 billion
Economic Injury Disaster Loan Advances $20 billion
Emergency Grants to Venues $15 billion
Other Small Business Relief and Program Expenses $6 billion
Deductibility of expenses paid for by PPP loans ^†
Education $82 billion
K-12 Education Grants $54 billion
Higher Education Grants $20 billion
Governor's Emergency Education Relief Fund $4 billion
Grants for HBCUs, Minority-Serving Institutions, and Tribal Colleges $2 billion
Grants to For-Profit Colleges to Provide Financial Aid $1 billion
Education Grants for Tribes and Territories $1 billion
Source: Legislative summaries, bill text, JCT, CRFB calculations.
What's in the Response and Relief Act?
† Although the proposal rescinds funds from the PPP program and the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities, those
funds would not have been spent anyway under current law so the actual deficit impact will be closer to $350
billion. The precise deficit impact is unknown — for example, unemployment benefits could cost more or less
depending on unemployment levels and PPP loans may not be fully utilized.
^ This change may reduce tax revenues by up to $200 billion relative to current law (or less if there are limits imposed on
deductibility, as reported by some sources), but much of the cost was inadvertently scored in the original bills so it would not be
counted as an additional cost by CBO.

4. CRFB.org
Provision Ten-Year Cost
Health Care $69 billion
Funding to States for Testing, Tracing, and COVID Mitigation $22 billion
Vaccine Procurement $20 billion
Vaccine Distribution Through the States & CDC $9 billion
Additional Health Care Provider Grants $3 billion
Repeal the Medicare Sequester through March 2021 $3 billion*
Increase Physician Pay Schedule $3 billion
Mental Health Funding $5 billion
Other Health Funding $3 billion
Distribute Majority of Existing Provider Relief Fund to Struggling Health Providers **
Extend and Augment Unemployment Benefits (+$300/week) for 11 weeks $120 billion
Stimulus checks of $600/person $166 billion
What's in the Response and Relief Act?
Source: Legislative summaries, bill text, JCT, CRFB calculations.
** The bill requires that at least 85 percent of the unobligated PRF balance be used for more distributions to
health providers that incurred losses in Q3 and Q4 of 2020 and Q1 of 2021. This represents around $20
billion in potential distributions.
* Rough CRFB estimates where official scores unavailable. Subject to change as more details emerge. The distributions from the
Provider Relief Fund, in particular, represents our best guess of the bill from ambiguously worded legislative summaries, but will be
updated as necessary.

5. CRFB.org
Provision Ten-Year Cost
Transportation $45 billion
Second Round Payroll Support Program for Airline Workers $16 billion
Transit Infrastructure Grants $14 billion
State Highway Funding $10 billion
Grants to Transportation Service Providers Like Buses and Ferries $2 billion
Airport Grants $2 billion
Amtrak Funding $1 billion
Other Spending $87 billion
Nutrition and Agriculture Programs $26 billion
Rental Assistance $25 billion
Community Lender Support $12 billion
Child Care Grants $10 billion
Broadband Grants and Investment $7 billion
Provide Additional Emergency Funding to Agencies $3 billion
Disaster Relief Funding for COVID Funeral Expenses $2 billion
Community Development Block Grants $2 billion
Write-Off $10 Billion U.S. Postal Service Loan $0
Source: Legislative summaries, bill text, JCT, CRFB calculations.
What's in the Response and Relief Act?

6. CRFB.org
Provision Ten-Year Cost
Other Tax Cuts $40 billion
Extend and Expand Employee Retention Tax Credit $20 billion
Reinstate 100% Business Meals Deduction for 2021 and 2022 $6 billion
Increase Earned Income and Child Tax Credit by Allowing Taxpayers to Use 2019 Income $4 billion
Extend CARES Act Charitable Provisions $4 billion
Extend CARES Act Employer-Paid Student Loan Exclusion Through 2025 $3 billion
Extend Families First Paid Leave Credits Through March 2021 $2 billion
Total $935 billion*
"Offsets" (reductions in previous budget authority) -$560 billion
Net Total (budget authority) ~$360 billion
*†
What's in the Response and Relief Act?
Source: Legislative summaries, bill text, JCT, CRFB calculations.
* Rough CRFB estimates where official scores unavailable. Subject to change as more details emerge. The distributions from the
Provider Relief Fund, in particular, represents our best guess of the bill from ambiguously worded legislative summaries, but will be
updated as necessary.
† Although the proposal rescinds funds from the PPP program and the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities, those
funds would not have been spent anyway under current law so the actual deficit impact will be closer to $350
billion. The precise deficit impact is unknown — for example, unemployment benefits could cost more or less
depending on unemployment levels and PPP loans may not be fully utilized.

7. CRFB.org
$325
$166
$135 $120
$82
$51
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Small Business
Aid
Stimulus Checks Tax Extenders Unemployment
Aid
Education Vaccines,
Testing, and
Tracing
The Legislation Also Included Costly Tax Extenders
Sources: Joint Committee on Taxation, legislative summaries, CRFB calculations.
billions

8. CRFB.org
Policy Ten-Year Cost
Tax Provisions Made Permanent $51 billion
7.5% of income floor instead of 10% for medical expense deduction $33 billion
Reduced excise taxes on beer, wine, & distilled spirits $9 billion
Larger Lifetime Learning Credit in place of the deduction for qualified tuition & related expenses $6 billion
Other provisions $3 billion
Tax Provisions Extended Through 2025 $46 billion
Work Opportunity Tax Credit $16 billion
New Markets Tax Credit $6 billion
Business meals deduction $6 billion
Rule allowing American companies to transfer money tax-free between foreign subsidiaries $4 billion
Tax credit for employers to offer paid family and medical leave $4 billion
Exclusion for certain employer payments of student loans $4 billion
Allow mortgages to be forgiven tax-free $3 billion
Other provisions $3 billion
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, based on CBO and BEA data.
The Legislation Also Included Costly Tax Extenders

9. CRFB.org
Policy Ten-Year Cost
Tax Provisions Extended Through 2021 $18 billion
Energy Investment Tax Credit $7 billion
Extend and expand charitable deduction for non-itemizers & increase the maximum deduction $4 billion
Extend and expand credit for buying residential energy-efficient property $4 billion
Other provisions $3 billion
Other Temporary Tax Provisions $22 billion
Eliminate 10% floor on claiming disaster property losses $8 billion
Increase low-income housing tax credit rate $6 billion
Depreciation of residential rental property over 30 years $3 billion
Reduce interest rates used for life insurance contracts $3 billion
Other provisions $2 billion
Grand Total ~$135 billion
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, based on CBO and BEA data.
The Legislation Also Included Costly Tax Extenders

10. CRFB.org
Families
First
CARES PPPHCE
Response
& Relief
Total
Small Business Support - $375 $225 $325 $960
Unemployment Benefits $5 $460 - $120 $585
Recovery Rebates - $290 - $165 $460
Health Care Spending $90 $160 $100 $70 $420
State and Local Aid* $85 $175 - $80 $340
Tax Relief $25 $265 - $40 $330
Other Spending $20 $170 - $135 $325
Total COVID Relief (Net Cost) $225 $1,900 $355 $935 $3,415
Estimated Deficit Impact From COVID Relief Proposals (billions)
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on CBO, JCT, and other sources.
*Includes Coronavirus Relief Fund money and funding for public schools, transit, and existing Medicaid costs.
Note: Estimates are rounded to the nearest $5 billion
Net COVID Relief Will Total $3.4 Trillion

11. CRFB.org
That’s More Than the Great Recession Stimulus
Note: Figures reflect 5-year cost estimates
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations
American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act
1.0%
2011/2012 Payroll Tax Holiday: 0.3%
Fannie/Freddie/TARP: 0.2%
Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, 0.2%
Other
0.7%
CARES Act
1.8%
Response & Relief Act
0.8%
PPP & Health Extension Act:
0.3%
Other: 0.1%[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Great Recession COVID-19 Recession
Percent of GDP

12. CRFB.org
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
And Is Much More Frontloaded
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations
Percent of GDP

13. CRFB.org
COVID Relief Will Boost Income to Record Levels
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, based on BEA data.
Note: All numbers show percent growth in income relative to pre-pandemic levels (Q1 of 2020)
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1
+10%
+13%
+2%
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Prior Law Transfers
(excluding UI and rebates)
Recovery Rebates
billions

14. CRFB.org
Economic Impact
Estimates
Category Fiscal Impact Low Central High
Unemployment Benefits $120 $80 $120 $155
Economic Impact Payments $165 $100 $135 $165
Paycheck Protection Program and Other Small Business Support $345 $125 $150 $170
State and Local Aid (including Education and Transit Funding) $85 $75 $80 $85
Other Spending and Revenue $220 $140 $145 $155
Total $935 $515 $625 $730
Overall Multipliers 0.55x 0.67x 0.78x
The Response & Relief Act Will Boost Output
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding

15. CRFB.org
2021 Output Gap
Year-End COVID
Relief Bill
2022 Output Gap
2023 Output Gap
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Output Gap
(Central Estimate)
Economic Impact
2021
2022
2023
$515
$730
And Close Much of the Output Gap
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, based on CBO, Brookings, and bill text.
billions

16. CRFB.org
And Close Much of the Output Gap
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, based on CBO and BEA data.
$19,000
$20,000
$21,000
$22,000
$23,000
$24,000
$25,000
2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3
billions

17. CRFB.org
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, based on CBO and BEA data.
Note: Our optimistic scenario model does not account for the difficulty/unlikeliness of raising GDP
above potential during a pandemic.
$19,000
$20,000
$21,000
$22,000
$23,000
$24,000
$25,000
2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3
Optimistically, It Could Solidify the Recovery
billions

18. CRFB.org
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, based on CBO and BEA data.
$19,000
$20,000
$21,000
$22,000
$23,000
$24,000
$25,000
2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3
And Will At Least Prevent Another Economic Slump
billions

19. CRFB.org
What About The $2,000 Checks?
The CASH Act would increase the $600/person checks provided in the Response
and Relief Act to $2,000/person and expand eligibility to adult dependents.
We estimate this proposal would:
• Cost $464 billion, equivalent to over 2 percent of GDP
• Bring the total cost of new rebates to $630 billion – twice the amount
provided to small businesses in the Response and Relief Act and five-times
the amount spent on unemployment benefits
• Increase personal income to 25 percent above pre-COVID levels this quarter
• Boost economic output by about $300 billion, equivalent to 1.5 percent of
GDP this year or 0.5 percent over three years

20. CRFB.org
The Bigger the Rebate, the Bigger the Cost
CASH Act (proposed):
+$1,400 per Taxpayer
+$1,400 per Child
+$2,000 per Adult
Dependent
Family of 4 Receives:
$8,000
Total Cost:
$630 billion*
Response and
Relief Act:
$600 per Taxpayer
$600 per Child
Family of 4 Receives:
$2,400
Total Cost:
$166 billion
CARES Act:
$1,200 per Taxpayer
$500 per Child
Family of 4 Receives:
$3,400
Total Cost:
$292 billion
Source: JCT, CBO, CRFB analysis of the House-passed CASH Act
* Total reflects JCT estimate of $464 billion for the revenue effects of the CASH Act, as well as CBO’s
estimate of $166 for the recovery rebates portion of the Response and Relief Act

21. CRFB.org
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000
Single Adult
Single Parent, One Child
And the Higher Up the Income Ladder They Will Go
Married Couple, No Children
Married Couple, One Child
Married Couple, Three Children
Married Couple, Two Children
Adjusted Gross Income
Source: CRFB analysis of the House-passed CASH Act
Amount of Economic Impact Payment

22. CRFB.org
Single
Adult
Married
Couple
No Children
Married
Couple
1 Child
Married
Couple
2 Children
Married
Couple
3 Children
Married
Couple
5 Children
Single
Parent
2 Children
Income Where Checks Are Fully Phased Out
CASH Act ($2,000/person) $115,000 $230,000 $270,000 $310,000 $350,000 $430,000 $232,500
Response Act ($600/person) $87,000 $174,000 $186,000 $198,000 $210,000 $234,000 $148,500
CARES ($1,200/adult, $500/child) $99,000 $198,000 $208,000 $218,000 $228,000 $248,000 $156,500
Size of Rebate under CASH Act
$50,000 income $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $14,000 $6,000
$100,000 income $750 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $14,000 $6,000
$150,000 income $0 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $14,000 $4,125
$200,000 income $0 $1,500 $3,500 $5,500 $7,500 $11,500 $1,625
$250,000 income $0 $0 $1,000 $3,000 $5,000 $9,000 $0
$300,000 income $0 $0 $0 $500 $2,500 $6,500 $0
$350,000 income $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4,000 $0
Source: CRFB analysis of the House-passed CASH Act
And the Higher Up the Income Ladder They Will Go

23. CRFB.org
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
0-20% 20-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80-90% 90-95% 95-99% Top 1%
+$1400/person
$600/person
But They Still Don’t Go to the Very Rich
Source: Tax Policy Center. Modeled on 2019 income levels and population.
Income Percentile
Average Rebate

24. CRFB.org
24
In Dollars Share of Economy
September Deficit Projection (CBO) $1.8 trillion 8.6% of GDP
Effect of COVID Relief, Tax Extender, and
Omnibus Spending Package
+$750 billion +3.6% of GDP
Economic and Technical Changes since July
Forecast
-$250 billion -1.2% of GDP
Higher Projected GDP Since July Forecast N/A -0.6% of GDP
Updated Deficit Projection (CRFB) $2.3 trillion 10.4% of GDP
We’re Headed for a $2.3 Trillion Deficit

25. CRFB.org
121%
109%
98%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
September 2020 Alternative Scenario
September 2020 Current Law
March 2020 Current Law
And Record Debt Levels
Source: CRFB Calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Percent of GDP

26. CRFB.org
Learn More at CovidMoneyTracker.org