Brunswick Insight has released its US Post-Election Business Outlook research which includes survey data from Washington elites and US Financial elites. For more information please contact our Washington, DC office: http://www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/

1. Abu Dhabi
Beijing
Berlin
Brussels
Dallas
Dubai
Frankfurt
Hong Kong
Johannesburg
London
Milan
Munich
New York
Paris
Rome
San Francisco
Sao Paulo
Shanghai
Singapore
Stockholm
Vienna
Washington, D.C.
Political and Financial Elite Survey Results
November 2014

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Electoral Wave Republicans take control of the Senate

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Another Midterm Wave Republicans did better than expected, making major gains in the Senate and House
House Election Results
Senate Election Results
Source: The New York Times
Net Pickup by Party
SENATE
+7
-7
HOUSE
+12
-12

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The party of every two-term President since Reconstruction has lost seats in both chambers of Congress during their second term…
…The only exception was Bill Clinton in 1998, after the public backlash against impeachment.
Six-Year Itch A pattern continues
Grant
House
Senate
Cleveland
Wilson
Roosevelt
Truman
Eisenhower
Nixon
Reagan
Bush
-93
-1
-107
-4
-22
-5
-72
-7
-28
-5
-48
-13
-48
-4
-5
-8
-30
-6
House
Senate
+5
0
Obama
-13
-7

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The Most Important, But Underreported, Outcome The Republican wave led to big gains at the Gubernatorial and state legislature levels
Gubernatorial Election Results
State Legislature Election Results
Republicans picked up 4 Governorships and 10 state legislature chambers.
Republicans now control 68 out of 98 state legislature chambers, more than any other point in history.
Republicans have full control (Governor’s Mansion and State Legislature) in 23 states.
Democrats have full control in 7 states.

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1.How are Elites reacting to the midterm election results?
2.What are their expectations for the next two years?
3.What predictions do they have for 2016?
Survey Objectives With this backdrop, we launched a survey to answer three questions:
D.C., Maryland, and Virginia-based readers of elite policy publications (including Politico, PoliticoPro, Roll Call, National Journal, and The Hill)
National readers of elite financial media (including Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Investor Business Daily, and Bloomberg BusinessWeek)
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites
Financial Elites
Survey Audiences

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Exceeding Expectations: All audiences believe that the Republicans did better than expected in the midterm elections.

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Election Reaction Republicans outperformed Elites’ expectations this cycle
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites
Republicans did better than I expected
The result was what I expected
Democrats did better than I expected
In your own words, what do you believe led to this year’s election outcomes?
Which one of the following best describes your reaction to this year’s election results?
44%
63%
46%
30%
24%
28%
27%
13%
26%

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What’s Behind the Results? Republicans point to disapproval with Obama, while Democrats cite low turnout
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites
54%
Voters who disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.
SOURCE: ABC exit polls, November 4, 2014
36.4%
2014 voter turnout, the lowest level in 72 years.
SOURCE: PBS News, November 10, 2014

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Setting the Agenda President Obama and Congressional Republicans are making an early push to set the policy agenda
“And whether it's immigration or climate change, or making sure our kids are going to the best possible schools, to making sure that our communities are creating jobs; whether it's stopping the spread of terror and disease, to opening up doors of opportunity to everybody who’s willing to work hard and take responsibility -- the United States has big things to do.”

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Policy Priorities: When thinking about what is most likely to be achieved over the next two years, raising the debt ceiling, limiting the deficit, and reforming immigration policies top the list.

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Policy Priorities Elite see raising the debt limit, limiting the deficit, and reforming immigration as likely to be achieved before 2016
Limiting the federal budget deficit
25%
28%
23%
23%
20%
20%
18%
16%
14%
17%
16%
13%
18%
13%
15%
14%
10%
12%
Raising the debt limit
Comprehensive immigration reform
Allowing US crude oil exports
Reforming Social Security
Addressing the student debt issue
Comprehensive corporate tax reform
Blocking companies from relocating their headquarters overseas for tax purposes
Free trade agreements with Europe
Comprehensive individual income tax reform
Legalizing marijuana
Large-scale infrastructure investments
Free trade agreements with Asia
Ending national Common Core education standards
An end to quantitative easing
Consumer privacy protection
Creating a national exchange for greenhouse gas emitters
Improving access to H1-B visas for highly-skilled working professionals
39%
41%
24%
25%
20%
17%
24%
19%
16%
17%
21%
22%
18%
19%
9%
14%
9%
8%
35%
23%
25%
23%
24%
21%
16%
21%
25%
21%
15%
15%
13%
13%
15%
6%
15%
9%
Comprehensive immigration reform is seen as being twice as likely as a special deal for highly-skilled workers seeking H1-B visas.
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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K Street
lobbying
More of the Same Majorities expect K Street lobbying to rise over the next two years
Over the next two years, do you believe the following will increase, decrease, or stay about the same?
59%
59%
76%
35%
36%
19%
6%
6%
4%
Decrease
Stay about the same
Increase
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Number of executive orders
More of the Same With governmental powers divided, an uptick in executive orders is expected
Over the next two years, do you believe the following will increase, decrease, or stay about the same?
60%
61%
64%
32%
18%
27%
9%
21%
9%
Decrease
Stay about the same
Increase
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Overall government spending
More of the Same Overall government spending is predicted to grow
Over the next two years, do you believe the following will increase, decrease, or stay about the same?
52%
48%
62%
31%
28%
24%
17%
24%
14%
Decrease
Stay about the same
Increase
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Defense spending
Change of Course Despite reductions to the Pentagon’s 2015 budget, Elites anticipate increased defense spending
Over the next two years, do you believe the following will increase, decrease, or stay about the same?
65%
56%
70%
26%
32%
19%
9%
12%
11%
Decrease
Stay about the same
Increase
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Fight Club: Although Elites agree on upcoming policy priorities, they expect little cooperation between President Obama and a Republican Congress and foresee an increase in executive orders from the White House.

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Partisan Gridlock Elites forecast disagreement between the President and Congress and expect another government shutdown
Over the next two years, how likely or unlikely is it that there will be a government shut-down due to a policy impasse?
Over the next two years, which ONE of the following do you believe is likely to happen?
20%
17%
19%
39%
31%
41%
35%
36%
33%
6%
17%
7%
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Not too likely
Not at all likely
44%
38%
46%
37%
50%
36%
19%
12%
18%
The President and Congress will generally work together to pass legislation that helps to rebuild trust in both parties
The President and Congress will generally spend most of their time fighting along partisan lines to build up an advantage for the 2016 presidential elections
The President and Congress will generally fight over policy, but find a few opportunities to pass popular legislation
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Business & Economic Impact: Although Elites anticipate divided government will have a positive effect on the economy, all audiences expect slow economic growth.

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44%
25%
14%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Better
Same
Worse
Top concerns among voters
The economy
Healthcare
Immigration policy
Foreign policy
Life for the next generation
Do you think the future of the next generation of Americans will be better, worse, or about the same as life today?
Worse
Same
Better
48%
Worse
SOURCES: NBC News, ABC News exit polls, November 4, 2014.
This is the most to say “worse off” since 1996.
22%
27%
Economy as Priority The economy tops voter concerns in exit polls; Half believe that future generations will be worse off

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Boom or Bust? Financial Elites & Republicans expect economic growth from divided government; Democrats are more skeptical
Positive effect
Negative effect
No effect
62%
Positive
18%
33%
49%
Positive
14%
44%
42%
Positive
11%
26%
Do you believe that divided government – a Democratic-controlled White House and a Republican-controlled Congress – will have a positive or negative effect on the economy?
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Little Economic Growth Elites predict economic growth to continue, but most predict less growth than IMF forecasts
Over the next two years, do you believe the US economy will…
According to the International Monetary Fund, growth in the United States is projected to be 3% in 2015.
8%
17%
26%
19%
20%
4%
2%
1%
4%
Grow 5% per year or more
Grow 3%-4% per year
Grow 2% per year
Grow 1% per year
Stagnate
Contract 1% per year
Contract 3%-4% per year
Contract 2% per year
Contract 5% per year or more
7%
9%
33%
22%
18%
4%
4%
3%
1%
6%
20%
28%
15%
19%
7%
2%
2%
1%
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Mixed Signals Though Elites see neither party becoming more hostile to business, M&A is expected to be more difficult
Thinking specifically about potential mergers and acquisitions, over the next two years, do you believe the Department of Justice will become more or less aggressive in their attempts to block corporate mergers?
Do you believe that [Republicans/ Democrats] are becoming more or less friendly toward large businesses?
Republicans
Democrats
27%
65%
9%
31%
39%
30%
More friendly
Less friendly
Stay about the same
43%
46%
51%
43%
39%
38%
14%
15%
11%
Less aggressive
Stay about the same
More aggressive
44%
46%
10%
27%
30%
43%
19%
71%
10%
39%
45%
16%
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Business Priorities Elite see allowing crude exports and corporate tax reform as the most likely business issues to be tackled before 2016
23%
18%
14%
17%
13%
18%
10%
Allowing US crude oil exports
Comprehensive corporate tax reform
Blocking companies from relocating their headquarters overseas for tax purposes
Free trade agreements with Europe
Free trade agreements with Asia
An end to quantitative easing
25%
24%
16%
17%
22%
18%
9%
23%
16%
25%
21%
15%
13%
15%
Improving access to H1-B visas for highly-skilled working professionals
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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727 Days Away: Financial and Republican Elites anticipate Republican control of the White House and Congress in 2016, but Democratic Elites disagree.

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Strengthening the nation’s
economy and creating jobs
Anticipated Voter Priorities Voter priorities for 2016 are expected to include economic growth, immigration, and reducing healthcare costs
Top priorities
Bottom priorities
42%
37%
40%
32%
35%
Reducing the budget deficit
Defending the country from terrorism
Reducing healthcare costs
Dealing with illegal immigration
55%
38%
45%
40%
35%
58%
54%
44%
54%
46%
20%
15%
19%
17%
14%
Dealing with global trade issues
Reducing the influence of lobbyists
Dealing with the nation’s energy problem
Consumer privacy protection
Reducing crime
20%
20%
21%
20%
13%
15%
18%
13%
12%
10%
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Wild Cards In the next two years, instability in Iraq & Eastern Europe, and a major cyber attack are seen as most likely
37%
24%
25%
23%
20%
26%
26%
21%
22%
14%
12%
11%
Russia will annex more territory in Eastern Europe
China’s economy goes through a steep drop as the real estate bubble there bursts
ISIS captures Baghdad and takes control of Iraq
Oil prices fall below $50 per barrel
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates
The outbreak of a global disease pandemic
North Korea collapses
54%
40%
36%
33%
31%
32%
20%
17%
15%
23%
16%
11%
47%
31%
27%
27%
32%
19%
22%
24%
15%
13%
15%
15%
Oil prices rise above $120 per barrel
There is a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil
There is a successful cyber-attack on a major stock exchange
China becomes involved in a large-scale armed conflict with another Asian country
The Eurozone gives up their single currency and economic union and returns to country-by- country economic and political systems
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Following the next federal election in 2016, which one of the following scenarios do you believe is the most likely?
43%
73%
29%
27%
17%
34%
21%
9%
25%
10%
1%
12%
A Republican controlled House and a Republican controlled Senate
A Republican controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate
A Democratic controlled House and a Republican controlled Senate
A Democratic controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate
2016 Congressional Control Financial & Republican Elites predict Republicans will keep control; Three in five Democrats expect to take one chamber back
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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Which party's candidate do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?
Republican Candidate
Democratic Candidate
59%
82%
30%
41%
18%
70%
Clinton leads recent polling*
43%
42%
42%
52%
51%
53%
Hillary Clinton
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
*SOURCE: McClatchy/Marist poll; October 4, 2014
1988: The last election where a President transferred power to a member of the same party.
Road to the White House
Financial Elites
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites

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About the Brunswick Group
Sparky Zivin
Director, Brunswick Insight
Washington, DC
P: +1.202.393.7337
E: SZivin@BrunswickGroup.com
For more information about how
Brunswick can help, please contact:
The Brunswick Group is an international corporate communications partnership that helps businesses and other organizations address critical communications challenges. Brunswick is an international team of more than 600 people based in 22 offices and 13 countries.
This research was conducted by Brunswick Insight, the research and consulting arm of the Brunswick Group. Brunswick Insight provides data-driven strategic communications counsel for Fortune 500 companies, industry organizations, and non-profits. Our team of experts has conducted research in more than 70 markets around the world and has expertise in corporate reputation, issues management, narrative and message development, and thought leadership.
Bob Moran
Partner, Brunswick Insight
Washington, DC
P: +1.202.393.7337
E: RMoran@BrunswickGroup.com

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Methodology
Audience
National readers of elite financial media (including Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Investor Business Daily, and Bloomberg BusinessWeek)
D.C., Maryland, and Virginia-based readers of elite policy publications (such as Politico, PoliticoPro, Roll Call, National Journal, and The Hill) who voted Republican in the last election
D.C., Maryland, and Virginia-based readers of elite policy publications (such as Politico, PoliticoPro, Roll Call, National Journal, and The Hill) who voted Democratic in the last election
Sample Size
n=300
n=114
n=186
Margin of Error
±5.7
±9.2
±7.2
Mode
Online
Field Dates
November 5-9, 2014
Republican Policy Elites
Democratic Policy Elites
Financial Elites