Solving Difficult Digitalisation Problems

SOLVING DIFFICULT PROBLEMS IN THE WORLD
OF DIGITALISATION AND DISRUPTION
ITSMF LEADERSHIP SUMMIT 2018
6 July 2018
© 2018 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 1

Agenda
• Simple and Difficult Problems
• Cynefin Framework
• Complicated Complex
• Complex Context
• Chaotic Context
• Disorder Context
• Summary

Introduction – Simple Problems
• Example – user complains
printout from printer looks faded?
• Is this a simple problem?
• Why?
• Known Known
• Realm of known…
• Best Practices
• SOPs
• Solve using
• Sense
• Categorise (and find solution in
SOP)
• Respond

Difficult Problems
"9/11 WTC Photo" by 9/11 Photos is licensed
under CC BY 2.0
Signal interference issue
plagues Circle Line again
MONDAY 25 JUNE 2018
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/no-service-6-circle-
line-stations-disruption-caused-signal-fault-widens
https://www.economist.com/business/2017/06/03/british-
airways-botches-its-response-to-its-latest-technical-woes
Vs
Are these Difficult Problems?
Can these be solved in same way as simple problems?
i.e. Sense, Categorise (i.e. find correct best practice), Respond?

Agenda
• Complex Context
• Chaotic Context
• Summary

Cynefin Framework
Complex Complicated
Chaotic
Obvious
(Simple)
Disorder
• Different Problem
Contexts
• => Different
Approaches

Agenda
• Complex Context
• Chaotic Context
• Summary

Complicated Context
• Known UnKnowns (or unknown
known?)
• ITIL uses the word “known”
also – where is it used?
• Known Error
• Able to resolve once unknown
if known
• Solve using
• Sense
• Analyse
• Respond
• One of the analysis techniques
• Kepner-Tregoe Is-IsNot
technique

Complicated Context -
Kepner Tregoe Is-IsNot (KT)
Technical
knowledge
& Tools
Analysis
Process
Ingredients for successful
Complicated Problem Analysis
Kepner Tregoe
Is-IsNot
IS IS NOT
WHAT Signal interference Other technical issues
(e.g. door, circuit breaker
etc.)
WHERE Circle Line all stations
Near stations as well as
along the lines
Some Circle Line stations
Other lines
Only at stations
Only away from stations
WHEN Started on Aug 29 2016
Both peak period as well
as non-peak period
Earlier than Aug 29
Only peak period
Only non-peak period
EXTENT Intermittent Consistent
Growing
Decreasing
Signal interference issue
plagues Circle Line again
MONDAY 25 JUNE 2018

Complicated Context –
KT Technique
http://www.charaderie.co.uk/index.php/team-building-games/
http://beckystevens.blogspot.com/2011/04/wh
y-it-was-miss-stevens-with-boardgame.html
Recognise items on left?
<- Cluedo board game
Like Kepner Tregoe
• Gather facts
• Make sense of it
• Develop Hypotheses
• Gather more facts
• Prove/Disprove Hypotheses
• Until Root Cause Found

KT - MRT Facts and Hypotheses
https://blog.data.gov.sg/how-we-caught-the-circle-line-
rogue-train-with-data-79405c86ab6a

KT - MRT Make Sense of Data / Prove Hypothesis
https://blog.data.gov.sg/how-we-caught-the-circle-line-
rogue-train-with-data-79405c86ab6a

KT – MRT Prove Hypothesis
https://blog.data.gov.sg/how-we-
caught-the-circle-line-rogue-train-
with-data-79405c86ab6a

Not Uncommon in Age of Digitalisation
25 Apr 2018
The IT crisis engulfing TSB has entered a sixth day, with
customers still experiencing problems accessing their
accounts despite assurances from the bank that its
internet and mobile services are now up and running.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/25/tsb-
customers-share-experiences-it-crisis

Agenda
• Complex Context
• Chaotic Context
• Summary

Complex Context
Preventive Measures
Digital Disruption
• Unknown Unknowns
• Unable to resolve with certainty once unknown if
known
• Solve using
• Probe
• Sense
• Respond
• Why not able to know and solve with certainty?

Complex Context –
Preventive Measures - MRT Case
• Why did MRT train PV46 have the signal
interference fault?
• Why was it not avoided during the
component design phase?
• Why was it not avoided or
detected/corrected during the component
manufacturing phase?
• Why was it not detected/corrected during
the testing phases?
the assembly/integration and
commissioning phase?
the operations phase?
• PEOPLE
• ORGANISATION
• PROCESSES
• TOOLS /
TECHNOLOGY
• etc.
Can you guarantee
that preventive
measures you come
up with will definitely
work?
Why not?

Complex Context –
Digital Disruption
ComfortDelGro shares rev up on
back of Uber deal
11 Dec 2017
Shares of taxi giant ComfortDelGro rose on
Monday (Dec 11), following the announcement
that it will acquire a majority stake in Uber's rental
car business for about S$642 million.
Would it be respite or wreckage for
ComfortDelGro as Grab acquires Uber's
Southeast Asia business?
26 Mar 2018
ComfortDelGro Corporation’s long-drawn plan to
strike a strategic alliance with Uber Technologies
could now be in limbo.
This comes after Grab today put an end to
months of speculation and confirmed it will be
acquiring Uber’s Southeast Asia operations.

Complex Context –
Action and Reaction
My NS Training
- Planning an Attack
Anticipate & Plan for
Enemy Reactions
- War-Gaming

Complex Context -
E.g. Amazon Whole Foods & Reaction
How Wal-Mart And Target Are
Handling Amazon's Acquisition Of
Whole Foods Market
• Walmart - “expanded online assortment,
two-day free shipping with no
membership fee and over 1,000 online
grocery pickup locations… Wal-Mart will
also be working on one-hour delivery
services”
• Target - cutting prices on, "thousands of
items, from cereal and paper towels to
baby formula, razors, bath tissue and
more"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4118110-wal-mart-target-handling-
amazons-acquisition-whole-foods-market

Complex Context –
Side Effects
Example:
Typical preventive
measure for IT
- Add reviews
- Add item to
review checklist
Any side effects?

Complex Context –
Feedback Loops
Example:
Will the side-effect
or reaction
boomerang back
to hit you?

Complex Context –
Techniques
• Causal Loop
• Business Ecosystem Design
• Design Thinking / System Design
• Lean Startup

Complex Context -
Casual Loop Technique – Simple Introduction
Incidents
Checklist Items
& Reviews
Quality
Paperwork
Morale &
Time for
Actual Work
Casual Loop -
Technique to
understand and
map different factors
at play in a complex
context.
Nb: This slide is a
simplification for conceptual
understanding. It does not
use the full set of conventions
normally used for causal
loops.
How to solve problem so that it is prevented from happening again?

Complex Context –
Causal Loop - real-world complexity
http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid
=S2224-78902014000100008

Complex Context -
Ecosystem Design for Digitalised Businesses
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/business-20ecosystem-20design-130831085446-
phpapp01/95/business-ecosystem-design-21-638.jpg?cb=1379181577

Complex Context -
Design Thinking / Service Design Technique
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Design_Thinking_process_in_the_Chapters_Dialogue_project.png
• Complex Context
• Solve using
• Probe
• Sense
• Respond

Complex Context -
Lean Startup Technique
© 2018 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 28http://theleanstartup.com/principles
• Complex Context
• Solve using
• Probe
• Sense
• Respond

Agenda
• Complex Context
• Chaotic Context
• Summary

Chaotic Context
"9/11 WTC Photo" by 9/11 Photos is licensed
under CC BY 2.0
• Unknownables
• More pressing need is to
establish order rather than to
solve a problem
• With order established,
situation can be changed
from Chaotic to Complex or
Complicated
• Then can solve problem

Chaos –
Omaha Beach Jun 6, 1944
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSKerypwUDM

Chaotic Context -
1. Visible Leadership
Gen Norman Cota – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26-dPApD8mE

Chaotic Context -
Gen Norman Cota – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26-dPApD8mE

Chaotic Context -
"There are only two kinds of people
who are staying on this beach: those
who are already dead and those that
are gonna die. Now get off your
butts, you're the fightin' 29th."
http://www.strijdbewijs.nl/film/longeng.htm

Chaotic Context -
2. Principles
https://www.mindef.gov.sg/oms/imindef/mindef_web
sites/atozlistings/safmc/about_us/logo.html
https://www.leadthewayfund.org/

Chaotic Context -
3. Effective Delegation
http://www.eclat-consulting.com/3-empowering-steps-for-effective-delegation/
Share Information
Share These:
- Objectives and goals
- Expected Outcomes
Establish Boundaries
Establish These:
- Delivery time
- Dos and DON’Ts
Give Autonomy
Give These:
- Trust
- Opportunity to grow

Chaotic Context -
4. Sense-Making
https://www.slideshare.net/BenShneiderman/info-vis-122012v17shneiderman

Chaotic Context -
5. Triage
“Being the worst makes you first”
works for A&E departments
Does it work for your situation?

Agenda
• Complex Context
• Chaotic Context
• Summary

Disorder
• When you have multiple contexts
happening at the same time
• Example
• What did you think were the
contexts that Gen Norman
Cota was dealing with before
he led the charge up the hill?
• Chaotic
• Complex

Agenda
• Complex Context
• Chaotic Context
• Summary

Summary
Complex Complicated
Chaotic
Obvious
(Simple)
Disorder
• Different Problem
Contexts
• => Different
Approaches

For Further Information
• Please refer to:
• http://www.iss.nus.edu.sg/
• Or email Goh Boon Nam at:
• issgbn@nus.edu.sg
• ISS courses:
• (Solving Difficult Problems) Systems Thinking and Root Cause Analysis -
https://www.iss.nus.edu.sg/executive-education/course/detail/nicf--systems-
thinking-root-cause-analysis/it-service-management
• https://www.iss.nus.edu.sg/executive-education

Thank You

Solving Difficult Digitalisation Problems

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