Overall Problem-
It has been estimated that worldwide, the total number of vehicles is most likely to triple by the year 2050, and it will be concentrated in developing regions, leading to energy and ecological calamity. Governmental agencies are now directing their focus on the development of electric vehicles to avert the impending crisis.
Current Scenario
India currently spends $102 billion on importing crude oil to cover 80 % of its transport needs, putting a strain on the Indian Economy and pointing towards a shortage of energy reserves
soon. The automobile sector has reported an increase in sales, from 21.5 million in FY19 to 26.2 million in FY20, making it lucrative for the transport giants to increase the production of EVs. The move also puts the focus on Indian infrastructure for electricity generation. India produces 374 Gigawatts of electricity, providing for 97.6 % of the households in India, and
around 90% of the rural areas, which indicates that the energy sector may soon face a shortage.
Advantages
The gains consist of environmental and economic benefits. By adopting a shared and electric model for transportation, energy consumption and carbon emissions can be reduced by 64 percent and 37 percent, respectively, by 2030.
Current Framework
Government policy advisor NITI Ayog has proposed electrification for 80 percent of two- and three-wheelers, 30 percent of four-wheelers, and 45 percent of buses by 2030. Authorities have introduced the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid) and Electric Vehicles in India (FAME) - II; a scheme that incentivizes the purchase of EVs. It has also been proposed that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate on EVs should be reduced from a rate of 12 percent to 5 percent.
The scheme of Battery-swapping has been introduced wherein users pay only when they swap a used battery with a charged one instantly. The market for EV battery-swapping is likely to increase up to $6.1 million by the year 2030
Challenges-
1. Estimate the growth of the 4-wheeler EV segment over 5 years (till FY25). Calculate the projections for all the years.
2. What will be the main challenges of the EV segment to grow in the given scenario of COVID-19?
3. Suppose you are the Indian head of Tata Motors. Propose a detailed plan to increase the penetration of the 4-wheeler private EV in Agra. (Consider COVID-19)
4. Estimate the cost of providing charging spaces in a popular marketplace like Connaught Place in Delhi.
5. Come up with strategies to implement the practice of battery swapping feasibly to the consumers.
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Case Study on Guesstimates (Biswadeep Ghosh Hazra)
1. 1 | P a g e
Challenges
1. Estimate the growth of the 4-wheeler EV segment over 5 years (till FY25). Calculate
the projections for all the years
Answer-
The 4-wheeler EV segment is extremely slow to adopt the EV trend and very few are sold every
year. It is estimated that only 2,000 such cars were sold in the FY’19 and based on the scenarios
there are two options-
i) 4 wheelers used for personal use
ii) 4 wheelers used as cabs
The adoption rate is much more in case of ride sharing cars but only a fraction of the electric
cars will be used for ride sharing options. Also ride sharing percentage of EV 4-wheeler will
increase as the years progress
Thus, at the base level it is predicted that around 5,000 EV vehicles (5,077) will be there at the
end of 2025 and the at the least of 3,444 and the at the most of 6,524
Ride Sharing Cars 2020 and 2021 10
Scenario
Growth in adoption
(%)
Growth in adoption
(%)
2022 12
Best 20 30 2023 13
Base 15 25 2024 14
Worst 10 20 2025 15
4-wheelers sold in
FY'19
2000
2020 1800 2020 200
2021 1800 2021 200
2022 1760 2022 240
2023 1740 2023 260
2024 1720 2024 280
2025 1700 2025 300
Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Best 2,160 2,592 3,041 3,608 4,280 5,076
Base 2,070 2,381 2,677 3,043 3,460 3,932
Worst 1,980 2,178 2,343 2,548 2,770 3,012
Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Best 260 338 527 743 1,040 1,448
Base 250 313 469 635 854 1,144
Worst 240 288 346 374 403 432
Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Best 2,420 2,930 3,569 4,351 5,320 6,524
Base 2,320 2,693 3,145 3,678 4,314 5,077
Worst 2,220 2,466 2,688 2,922 3,173 3,444
Total 4-
wheeler
vehicles
4-wheeler EV
used for ride
sharing (%)
4-wheeler personal
cars
4-wheeler ride
sharing cars
Personal
Cars
Ride
Sharing
Cars
Personal Cars
2. 2 | P a g e
2. What will be the main challenges of the EV segment to grow in the given scenario of
COVID-19?
Answer-
COVID-19 has actually reduced the disposable income amongst people as many have
lost jobs. Convincing people to buy an EV car much less a car is difficult
The increased lockdowns would mean that for people who buy cars (be it EV or
normal); they cannot take their favourite for a spin. This has discouraged many to buy
cars now
Infrastructure is another major issue. Ideally as EV adoption increases, the charging
station and its networks all over the country increases as well. But due to the pandemic,
everything has taken a hit and it is now difficult to implement infrastructural changes
There is a mindset that makes people associate vehicles with petrol and diesel and not
with electricity. This is one of the biggest hindrances and is independent of COVID-19
Work from home might stick along and there are several news that prove the same.
Companies are now understanding the importance of work from home. This can
potentially save the company a huge sum spent on real estate building and operating
offices. If people do not commute to work, there is no necessity of a vehicle
Car makers themselves have shelved making too many EV seeing the dip in demand
and hence supply is reduced as well.
3. Suppose you are the Indian head of Tata Motors. Propose a detailed plan to increase
the penetration of the 4-wheeler private EV in Agra. (Consider COVID-19)
Answer-
i) I will research about the target demographics for the 4-wheeler EV, i.e., whether it
is aimed towards the young adults or the mature audience. In addition, the current
demographics of EV owners need to be studied
ii) Normal advertisements on traditional medium with more focus on TV, newspaper,
Radio as more people are choosing to stay indoors
iii) Portray the product as a long-term asset and is an investment for people who are
thinking about the long-term impacts and costs
Media Vehicle Brand Cost Source
Magazine Overdrive Rs 100000 Per Insert https://www.themediaant.com/
TV
9XM (Highest Reach
~BARC) Rs 180 Per second https://www.themediaant.com/
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Newspaper Time of India Rs 5667 per Sq Cm https://www.themediaant.com/
Radio Red FM 93.5 (RJ Mention) Rs 6000 Per Mention https://www.themediaant.com/
Billboard 15*40 In Mumbai Rs 70000 https://armourdigitalooh.com/
A radio advertising ecosystem has to be
maintained. After analysing the viewer statistics,
advertising campaigns may be run on Radio Mirchi in
the Evening Prime Time and on Red FM in the Evening
Prime Time
Billboard score= No. of prospective people seeing the ad* average time spent on ad*
area of the bill board
Here the offline media vehicles that we have selected for offline media with specific brands
along with their estimated costs ATL is great for generating initial brand awareness. Paired
with digital with will give our campaign a 360-degree view. For Billboards, we will cover
major highway destinations. Every city will have a different calling number present on the
board to track the effectiveness of ATL marketing.
Marketing
Strategy
Above the
Line (ATL)
Television Ads
Print Media
Radio
Below the Line
(BTL)
Outdoor
Adverts
Direct
Marketing
Public
Relations
Through the
Line (TTL)
Digital
Marketing
360 degree
Marketing
Radio
Adverts
4. 4 | P a g e
Why Amitabh Bachchan as the Brand Ambassador?
No other Bollywood brand evoke the qualities of TRUST, FRIENDSHIP &
RELATIONSHIP better than the Shahenshah himself. He has a connect with all
ages and his roles in movies like Bhootnath, Piku, Pa, Black or in shows like
Kaun Banega Crorepati has made sure that Big B’s influence is felt throughout,
both on and off the silver screen
4. Estimate the cost of providing charging spaces in a popular marketplace like
Connaught Place in Delhi
So, for setting up a complete charging space the fixed costs will range from Rs 76.5 lakhs to
2.015 Cr as the price per sq. ft. area is one of the highest in Delhi. Private areas are even more
costly in Connaught Place. The per day costs will be Rs 300 per day for electricity costs. The
cost of charging can be decided once all fixed and variable costs are taken into account. The
breakeven can be calculated accordingly then.
5. Come up with strategies to implement the practice of battery-swapping feasibly to the
consumers.
Best 15,000
Worst 20,000
500 sq. ft
1000 sq. ft
75,00,000
2,00,00,000
Rs. 5
10
6 hours
Rs 600
1,50,000
10
Electricity Cost per day
Time taken for charge per car
Setup cost
Price per sq ft for
charging area
Area (range) for setting up
the charging station
Cost for buying the area-
Per Unit Cost of Electricity in
Delhi
Number of cars charged per
day on an average
Battery Swapping for
5. 5 | P a g e
Answer-
Idea: Most of the rickshaws in India are now battery operated. Even the future of Indian two
wheelers and four wheelers is electric. Now, imagine having a system wherein there will be no
more worries of your electric vehicle battery going out of power while driving. With this battery
swapping system, a person can swap his discharged battery with the charged one for a small
fee.
Implementation:
A customer can either pay a refundable security money before renting the charged
battery or it can even work with keeping his Aadhar Card for the time he has taken the
battery. He will give us his discharged battery and in return we will be giving them a
charged one. Then, by the time he comes to return our battery, we will charge his battery
and give him a charged battery again. This system is future proof and there are not a lot
of players in the market yet.
Due to the time element involved, battery swapping in the scenario of EV vehicles is
always an advantage. Swapping takes a few minutes as opposed to battery charging
taking anywhere from 3 to 8 hours. Battery swapping helps spread the expensive battery
and vehicle costs between the owner and the battery operator. This is because for an
EV, the battery pack consists of more than 50% the price of the entire vehicle
Slowly but surely as the EV trend gains ground, battery will literally become the driving
force for the entire industry. Lowering the profit per swap will ensure that more and
more interested customers join the initiative