You are viewing presentations from conferences that I have attended. Please enjoy & if we can help you with any logistics projects in the Americas please contact me at 678.364.3475 Bill was also on the Board of Directors for the St.Vincent DePaul Foodbank in Roseville California helping with the fund raising and meals to the poor program. While based in Northern California he was successful in fund raising programs for the Crusade of Mercy and helped Father Dan Madigan at the Sacramento Food Bank also. For 2008, Bill is a member of the Board for WORKTEC on also an Advisory Board Member for Boys and Girls Club for Metro Atlanta-Clayton County Chapter. See www.worktec.biz or www.bgcma.org . Bill is also on the Board of Directors for the Southeastern Warehouse Association & represents Georgia for 2010-2012. Regards, Bill Stankiewicz Vice President and General Manager Shippers Warehouse Email: williams@shipperswarehouse.com www.shipperswarehousega.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/billstankiewicz2006 http://twitter.com/BillStankiewicz http://www.topexecutivesnet.com/index.aspx

1. Economic & Motor Carrier
Industry Update
March 3, 2009
Bob Costello
Chief Economist & Vice President
American Trucking Associations

2. Macroeconomic View

3. Worst U.S. Economy in Decades
(Real GDP, 2000 dollars)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

4. Worst U.S. Economy in Decades
(Real GDP, 2000 dollars)
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

5. Fiscal Stimulus Impacts
(Real GDP, Annual percent change)
3%
2%
1% Baseline No Stimulus
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
2008 2009 2010
Source: IHS Global Insight and ATA

6. U.S. Economic Growth Slips
Well Below Potential
(Real GDP, Annual percent change, 2000 dollars)
8 Forecast Starts
with Q1 2009
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

7. Broad-based Recession
(Real GDP, 2000 dollars)
Total Consumption Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Residential Fixed Investment Exports
Imports Federal Government
10.0% State & Local Government
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
2008 2009
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

8. Inflation No Longer a Concern, but
Deflation is the New Threat
(Consumer Prices)
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
First annual drop since 1955
-3%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources: IHS Global Insight, Department of Labor, and ATA

9. Interest Rates to Remain Low in
2009
(Average Quarterly Data; Percentage)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fed Funds Rate 30-year Mortgage
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

10. Consumer Outlook:
Many Headwinds

11. U.S. Employment
Millions; Seasonally Adjusted
139 Through January 2009
137
Unemployment rate will reach 10%
before the labor market improves.
135
133 2008 was the largest
drop since 1946.
131
129
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sources: Department of Labor and ATA

12. Fiscal Stimulus Impacts
(Cumulative job losses from the peak, millions)
0
-1
-2
Baseline No Stimulus
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
Q4:07 Q1:08 Q2:08 Q3:08 Q4:08 Q1:09 Q2:09 Q3:09 Q4:09 Q1:10 Q2:10 Q3:10 Q4:10
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

13. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Percent
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources: Department of Labor, ATA, IHS Global Insight

14. Housing Price Index
Average Annual Growth Rate: -8.5%
200 2006 – 2008
175
150
125
100
75
50
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Sources: S&P/Case-Shiller National Index and ATA

15. U.S. Housing Starts
(Millions of Units)
466,000 in January 2009
2
1
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Sources: IHS Global Insight, Department of Commerce, and ATA

16. Household Debt Service Ratio
Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA

17. Consumer Spending on Durables
Is Hit Hard in This Recession
(Percent change, chained 2000 dollars)
Fact: Households have lost $8 trillion of their net worth since the summer of 2007,
which is enough to reduce consumer spending by $400 billion, or 4%.
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Durable Goods Nondurable Goods
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

18. Industrial Outlook

19. Industrial Production
(Includes Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities; Percent Change)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

20. U.S. Manufacturing Production
Through January 2009; 2000 = 100
115.0
110.0
105.0 Already a 13.0%
drop peak-to-trough
with more to come
100.0
6.8% drop peak-to-trough
95.0
90.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Sources: Federal Reserve Board and ATA

21. Light Vehicle Sales
(Millions of Units)
18
16
14
12
10
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA

22. Total Business Inventories-to-
Inventories-to-
Sales Ratio
1.6 (Includes retail, wholesale, and manufacturing; Through December 2008)
Inventories are bloated
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Sources: Department of Commerce and ATA

23. U.S. Trucking Industry

24. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage
For-
Index
125 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
Through January 2009
120
115
110
105
Already a 13.4%
drop peak-to-trough
100 with more to come
9.3% drop peak-to-trough
95
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: ATA

25. For-
For-hire Trucking Employment
Millions; Seasonally Adjusted
1.46 Through January 2009
1.44
1.42
1.40
1.38
1.36 Employment fell
75,000 in 2008 and
1.34 25,000 in January
2009 alone.
1.32
1.30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sources: Department of Labor and ATA

26. ATA’s For-Hire TL Loads Index
For-
125 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
120 Through December 2008
115
110
105
100
Largest six-month drop since ATA
began collecting the data in 1993:
95 -23.2%
90
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA

27. ATA’s For-Hire TL Dry Van Loads
For-
Index
Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
120
Through December 2008
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA

28. ATA’s For-Hire TL Refrigerated
For-
Loads Index
125 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
120
115
Through December 2008
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA

29. ATA’s For-Hire TL Flatbed Loads
For-
Index
140 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
130
120
110
100
Through December 2008
90
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA

30. ATA’s For-Hire TL Tank Loads
For-
Index
160 Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100
150
140 Through December 2008
130
120
110
100
90
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA

31. Cumulative Decrease in Loads July
2008 through December 2008
0%
-5%
Reefer
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25% Dry Van
Tank
-30% Flatbed
-35%
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

32. Cumulative Decrease in Loads July
2008 through December 2008
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Med-Haul
-25% Short-Haul
-30%
Long-Haul
-35%
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

33. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue
For-
Index
150
140 2000=100; Through December 2008
130
120
110
100
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA

34. Truck capacity will
tighten once a recovery
commences, but until
then it will be difficult for
fleets.

35. Truckload Demand vs Supply
Through December 2008; 2000 = 100
120 175
Demand: ATA’s For-Hire TL
For-
Loads Index (left scale) 165
115
155
110
145
105 135
125
100
Supply: ATA’s For-Hire TL
For-
115
95 Tractor Index (right scale)
105
90 95
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

36. Trucking Failures
1,400
1,200 Failures only includes fleets
with at least five trucks
1,000
800
600
400
200
Q1 00
Q1 01
Q1 02
Q1 03
Q1 04
Q1 05
Q1 06
Q1 07
Q1 08
Trucking Failures
Source: Avondale Partners, LLC

37. Net Change in TL Fleet
1%
0%
-0.4%
-1%
-2%
-2.6%
-3%
2007 2008
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

38. U.S. Used Class 8 Tractor Exports
25,000
20,000 Nigeria
Russia
15,000
Rest of the World
10,000
5,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: US Trade Data

39. In the long-run, trucking
long-
capacity will remain tight
due to the driver
shortage.

40. Line-
Line-Haul Driver Turnover
140% Annualized Rates
120% 113%
100% 87%
Q3:2007
80%
65%
58% Q3:2008
60%
40%
20% 9% 9%
0%
Large TL Small TL LTL
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

41. Energy Price
Outlook

42. On-
On-Highway Diesel Prices
Price Per Gallon
Record: $4.76
$4.90 (07/14/08)
$4.40
$3.90
$3.40
$2.90
$2.40
$1.90
$2.13
$1.40 (02/23/09)
$0.90
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
Source: Energy Information Administration

43. Crude Oil Prices
WTI, US$ per Barrel
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Source: IHS Global Insight

44. Retail Diesel Prices
US$ per Gallon
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Source: IHS Global Insight & ATA

45. Thanks!