Welcome to the Fast Future: The Anticipatory Accounting and Finance Professional
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From the Montana Society of CPAs' Industry Conference: Recent research says our business environment will be characterized by “unprecedented, massive and highly accelerated change” through 2025. To thrive in this new age of hyper-change and growing uncertainty, it is now imperative that leaders learn a new skill – how to accurately anticipate the future. This session will show you how to anticipate future trends and move from being a crisis manager to an opportunity manager.
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Welcome to the Fast Future: The Anticipatory Accounting and Finance Professional
- 1. The fast future Get ready for … The anticipatory accounting and finance professionalBill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute
- 2. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future bli.cnf.io
- 5. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 6. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 7. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 8. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 9. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future MPH: 300,000 MPG: 2 million Price: 4 cents
- 10. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Our top challenge?
- 11. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “When the job is in the way of the work, consider changing your job enough that you can go back to creating value. Anything less is hiding.” Seth Godin
- 12. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Top five issues impacting accounting and finance pros 1. Keeping up 2. Information overload 3. Doing more with less 4. Being proactive vs. reactive 5. Complexity
- 14. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future 0 2 4 6 8 Poor reputation No personal relationship Inadequate staff to meet needs Out-of-date technology Fees were too high CPA lacked expertise Referral to a new firm Poor responsiveness CPA advice not proactive Why SMBs leave their CPA / accoutant
- 15. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future #FutureReady The capacity to be anticipatory (aware, predictive and adaptive) of emerging technology and trends in business, demographics, and the social environment impacting your organization and industry.
- 16. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “You can’t stop the waves, but you can learn how to surf.” – Jon Kabat-Zinn
- 17. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future 1. Aware 2. Predict 3. Adapt
- 18. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Aware
- 19. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before.” Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum
- 20. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “In the next five years, game-changing technologies will transform every business process, including how we sell, market, communicate, collaborate, educate, train, and innovate.” Daniel Burrus
- 21. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 22. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 23. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Tax: 98.7% A&A: 93.5%
- 24. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 25. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 26. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning InstituteGet ready for the fast future 2004: 119 Today: 71Source: The Hackett Group
- 27. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 28. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 29. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 30. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 31. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “We won’t recognize the vast majority of CPA firms in five or 10 years.” Barry Melancon
- 32. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future 47% of all jobs gone within 25 years ‘No government is prepared’ for that level of job loss Source: The Economist
- 33. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Predict
- 34. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Three hard trends: 1. Government regulation 2. Technology 3. Demographics
- 35. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 36. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future RONI?
- 37. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Adapt
- 38. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 39. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future In a period of rapid change and increasing complexity, the winners are going to be the people who can LEARN faster than the rate of CHANGE and faster than their COMPETITION. Tom Hood, CPA, CITP, CGMA
- 40. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “Ultimately, CPAs will be attesting to companies’ compliance with cyber-security standards,” Melancon said, while firms that explore blockchain early will be able to offer related services to clients. — Accounting Today Technology can be best used as a tool that gives humans more space to focus on analysis, interpretation, and strategy. In other words, computers have enormous potential to empower — rather than displace — accountants. — Business Insider “Clients are no longer looking for just a rearview mirror view, but a view through the windshield on where we are going and how to navigate the landscape of risks, opportunities, changing regulations, competition and globalization. — Forbes Insights and KPMG Nearly 80 percent of respondents say auditors should use bigger samples and more sophisticated technologies for data gathering and analysis in their day-to-day work. Nearly half say auditors should perform a deeper analysis in the areas they already cover, and two-thirds say auditors must improve their communications skills, critical thinking skills and technology skills. — Forbes Insights and KPMG The writing is on the wall: To stay relevant and competitive, the accountant (including internal and external auditors) of today and tomorrow will need to be tech-savvy, a strategic thinker and strong communicator in order to provide high-quality, high-value insight to clients. — Forbes Finance Council
- 41. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future • Communications • Leadership • Critical thinking and problem solving • Anticipating and serving evolving needs • Synthesizing intelligence to insight • Integration and collaboration • Tech-savvy / data analytics • Functional and domain expertise
- 42. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 44. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Respond lightning fast Access an encyclopaedic memory Stay awake 24 x 7 x 365 Remember conversations Analyze on the fly Continually learn and improve Source: AccountingWEB
- 45. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Intuition Political acumen Challenging Reading the back story Who’s who? Probability of change Culture What’s in it for me? Source: AccountingWEB
- 46. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “Professional judgment and expertise is not replaceable by machines.” — Cathy Engelbert CEO, Deloitte
- 47. “Humans should only do work that only humans can do.” Peter Sheahan Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future
- 48. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Adapt Predict Aware Future- ready
- 49. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Questions?
- 51. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Resources The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts, by Richard and Daniel Susskind www.susskind.com The Fourth Industrial Revolution, by Klaus Schwab bit.ly/1qLrfzs Flash Foresight: How To See The Invisible And Do The Impossible, by Daniel Burrus bit.ly/1SOn7FG The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress And Prosperity In A Time of Brilliant Technologies, by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee www.SecondMachineAge.com The Industries Of The Future, by Alec Ross bit.ly/2fP8cnU Thank You For Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations, by Thomas Friedman bit.ly/2hag0Rg What SMBs Want From Their Accountant, from The Sleeter Group bit.ly/2fCsvkc Welcome to the Fast Future, from CPA.com bit.ly/2gdHlBj The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerization? by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne bit.ly/1kre5T6 CPA Horizons 2025, from the American Institute of CPAs bit.ly/1UEN1x2 Innovation Killers: How Financial Tools Destroy Your Capacity To Do New Things, by Clayton Christensen, Stephen P. Kaufman, and Willy Shih bit.ly/1JtBxfG Ready-Now Leaders: Meeting Tomorrow’s Business Challenges, from DDI bit.ly/V05HQ6 These are among the resources discussed during the our “Future-Ready CPA” programs.
- 52. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Resources Audit 2025: The Future is Now, by KPMG bit.ly/2nLoT5Y AuditChain: Decentralized Continuous Audit and Reporting Protocol Ecosystem AuditChain.com Robots are coming to the accounting industry – here’s how to prepare, by Rachel Grimes read.bi/2ot47cB How Technology is Transforming the Audit, by Marc T. Macaulay bit.ly/2FBF4tH Melancon: CPA firms will be unrecognizable in 5-10 years, by Daniel Hood bit.ly/2l8qlyH How accountants can prepare for the blockchain revolution, by Mike Galarza bit.ly/2BhS8US Preparing Tomorrow’s Auditors For The Future Of Tech-Driven Accounting, by Russell Guthrie bit.ly/2HP8Z2b These are among the resources discussed during the our “Future-Ready CPA” programs.
- 53. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future “Just because we cannot see clearly the end of the road, that is no reason for not setting out on the essential journey. On the contrary, great change dominates the world, and unless we move with change, we will become its victims.” — Robert F. Kennedy
- 54. Bill Sheridan, CAE The Business Learning Institute Get ready for the fast future Connect with me MACPA’s blog: CPASuccess.com Facebook.com/BillSheridan LinkedIn.com/in/BillDSheridan Twitter.com/BillSheridan YouTube.com/BillSheridan SlideShare.net/BillSheridan Instagram: BDSheridan Download these slides: Slideshare.net/BillSheridan
Hinweis der Redaktion
- So we’re going to talk a little bit today about this notion of future-readiness – what it means to be future ready.
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- As the story goes, in the mid-13th century, an Indian minister named Sessa invented the game that we would eventually come to know as chess. He showed this intellectual game, this game of strategy, to his ruler, who immediately wanted to buy it and asked Sessa what he wanted for it. Sessa, thinking quickly, said … The ruler laughed, thinking he was getting this brilliant new game for a few handfuls of rice. And he agreed. And here’s what he eventually paid. By the end of the first row, he had 128 grains of rice. By the 21st square, he had over a million grains. By the 41st square, he had over a trillion grains. And by the 64th and final square, the king owed him a pile of rice that weighed more than 460 billion metric tons. A pile of rice like that would have been bigger than Mount Everest. In fact, it’s about 1,000 times more than the global production of rice in 2010.
- Exponential growth. In fact, a graph of exponential growth looks nothing like this.
- It looks like this. Gradual, then sudden.
- Stories like that are fun, but there’s a phenomenon happening in our world right now that’s exactly like the paper and the rice. It’s called Moore’s Law. Know what all of that means? It means that computers today are about 130,000 times more powerful that they were in 1988. That your iPhone 8 is WAY more powerful as Apple’s most powerful laptop was just a decade ago. That an iPad Mini is as powerful as the world’s biggest supercomputer was in 1985. We’re all carrying mainframes in our pockets. But Moore’s Law has given us more than a bunch of cool new gadgets to play with. It means that everything and every job is changing – and not just changing, but transforming. (health care)
- In Thank You For Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations, Thomas Friedman writes that Intel engineers recently tried to illustrate the power of Moore’s Law by calculating what would happen to a 1971 Volkswagen Beetle if it had improved at the same rate as microchips have over the past 50 years. “Today,” Friedman writes, “that Beetle would be able to go about 300,000 miles per hour. It would get 2 million miles per gallon of gas, and it would cost 4 cents.” Intel’s engineers took it a step further, Friedman writes, and “estimated that if automobile fuel efficiency improved at the same rate as Moore’s Law, you could, roughly speaking, drive a car your whole life on one tank of gasoline.” It’s all too much for any single person to keep up with, let along get in front of. And why?
- So how many of you are busy? How many are really, really busy? How many are so busy you’re too tire to raise your hands? That’s really what I believe is our biggest challenge – we’re so busy trying to keep up that we’re too busy to be future-ready.
- “We’re so busy doing our jobs that we can’t get any work done.” -- Seth Godin
- In our surveys over the past year, we’ve seen a few issues that seem to keep bubbling up to the top when we ask, “What are the top challenges you’re facing?” Interestingly enough, this is across the entire profession – public practice of all sizes, corporate, government, and not-for-profits. The same ones keep coming up. And they all have to do with this notion of disruption – new stuff, new technologies, regulations, demographic shifts, global and economic issues. They’re all ganging up on us, aren’t they? And making our lives really, really complex at the same time.
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- Now, combine those with recent research from The Sleeter Group – this is a report called “What Small and Mid-Size Business Want From Their CPAs.” These are the biggest reasons why clients say they leave their CPAs. Look at number 1. In essence, clients say they leave because their CPAs aren’t future-ready enough. By the way, look at how low fees are on that list. Often when we talk to CPAs, they complain that clients leave because they complain the fees are too high. What the research tells us is that they won’t pay your fees … if you aren’t giving them proactive advice. I think the flip side of that is that if you DO give them proactive advice, how might that change? That’s a critical issue, right? That difference between reactive service vs. proactive advice. And a lot of times, it starts with a simple question: What’s keeping you up at night? If you ask that question and pay attention to the answer, a world of opportunity suddenly becomes clear.
- And this idea that we’re not future-ready? Research within the profession bears that out. This is a report from CPA.com, which is the technology arm of the AICPA. The report is called “Welcome to the Fast Future.” It found that only 8 percent of CPAs believe the profession is future-ready. And how do they define “future-ready?” I think the key here is that we have to move beyond accounting. We have to start moving beyond the historical data that has traditionally driven this profession and start looking at those weak signals of disruptive change that are coming at us from the horizon. And there’s our predicament, right? We don’t have enough time to become future-ready. And our clients are leaving because we’re NOT future-ready. If all of this is true, an important question arises: How will we EVER make time to think about the future if we’re constantly stuck in the day-to-day minutia of trying to get our work done?
- Things are going to change, and radically, whether we want them to or not. We can’t do anything about that. What we CAN do is learn how to spot those changes before they disrupt us and identify the opportunities they present early.
- So let’s talk about those surfing lessons – some ideas that might help us be more future-ready. Three steps. If you pay attention to these three things, you’ll position yourself as a much more future-ready CPA or accountant – and you’ll bring your whole firm along with you. So let’s talk about each of these.
- Consider this: It’s a quote from Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum. He’s the author of a mind-blowing book called “The Fourth Industrial Revolution.” Pick up a copy today. It’s an important book. But here’s what he had to say:
- Now think about that word that both of them used. That’s transformation. They didn’t say “slightly change” or “tweak.” They said “transformation.” That means EVERYTHING is different. Now, what does that mean?
- That means things like this: Did the taxi cab industry see Uber coming? According to the New York Post, there are now more Uber black cars in New York City than yellow cabs.
- Then there’s AirBNB. It took Marriott and Hilton 100 years to get a million rooms under their management. It took AirBNB six … six years to hit a millions rooms. Did Hilton or Marriott see that coming? And it came from outside the hotel industry, didn’t it? It didn’t come from inside. That’s the kind of thing that worries me about the CPA profession. Are we paying attention? Are we taking that longer view – and through the windshield, not through the rear-view mirror?
- We’d better be. These are estimates from Oxford University. The odds of certain professions being completely automated within the next 20 years. The point is, it’s coming. What will we do when it gets here? Will we be scrambling to keep up, as usual? Or will we have already positioned ourselves to move beyond that disruption and create future-focused value?
- Let’s talk about IBM Watson. Many of us will remember when IBM’s Deep Blue computer beat Gary Kasparaov in chess in 1997. Then, IBM’s Watson technology beat Jeopardy’s reigning human champion, Ken Jennings. Now, fast-forward to last year. A futurist we work with, Dan Burrus, traveled to Toronto to watch Watson prepare a meal. So here’s what they did. They told Watson to read a million cookbooks from all over the world and come up with an innovative recipe. Now, Watson couldn’t cook the meal, but Watson read a million cookbooks and produced a completely unique recipe for the chefs to cook. How long do you think it took Watson to do that? One second. Now, given the exponential nature of change, how long will it take next year? Here’s the really interesting thing: In March 2016, KPMG announced plans to apply the Watson technology to the KPMG professional services offerings – including audit, tax, and advisory services. This comes a little close to home, doesn’t it. It makes you wonder: How long would it take Watson to analyze the tax code? And recommend tax reform? Now, rest easy: I think our tax code is so screwed up that Watson wouldn’t stand a chance. So I think we’re safe … for a little while. But this stuff is coming … and it’s coming fast.
- Then, last fall, we had this: Garbelman Winslow, a small-ish firm based just outside of Washington DC, announced it would start using a tool called MindBridge AI Auditor, an audit analytics software platform that (a) maximizes audit assurance by leveraging artificial intelligence, and (b) doesn’t break the bank. MindBridge’s solution is as accessible and affordable for small and mid-size firms as it is for the profession’s largest firms – and it allows Garbelman Winslow auditors to look at all transactions rather than just small samples. That’s a powerful differentiator for a small firm. In 18 months, we’ve gone from the profession just dipping its toes into A.I. at the highest levels to A.I. suddenly being affordable and available to just about anybody. That exponential technological advancement will only continue.
- CPA firms aren’t the only ones feeling the heat. According to the Hackett Group, the number of full-time accounting and finance employees at large companies has fallen from 119 people for every $1 billion in revenue in 2004 to 71 people today. That’s a drop of 40 percent. From The Economist: “Finance executives are especially eager to automate. Sixty-two percent of finance executives plan to launch or oversee an initiative to increase automation in their department in the next two years. No other function included in the study is more consistent in its intentions.”
- And we haven’t even mentioned blockchain yet. It’s an open, distributed ledger that records and verifies transactions without any central authority. And since accountants often work in the verification business – think audit and attestation, right? – this technology might transform our profession more than any other.
- So in relation to accounting, companies are able to add their transactions to a shared register, which is nearly impossible to falsify or destroy. Once widely adopted, this will make all financial transactions permanent, immutable and transparent. It’ll be a single source of information that all parties involved can collaborate on; and eventually, will have the power to end the need for audits all together. In fact, some are already saying that an accounting standard will have to be developed for digital currencies which states exactly how to handle them. In fact, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), a body whose aim is to establish accounting principles in the U.S., has already begun research this topic in order to develop a proper guide.
- And again, this stuff ain’t science fiction. Have you heard of AuditChain? It’s been described as a “blockchain startup. It’s the world's first decentralized continuous audit and real-time reporting ecosystem. And if you’re at all skeptical about this stuff, understand that one of the brains behind the XBRL movement, Eric Cohen, is one of AuditChain’s directors. Their goal is nothing short of the real-time reporting of financial statements. And it’s happening now. That’s the blockchain in action.
- And all of this sounds a bit frightening … even more so when you take this quote from Barry Melancon. Accountants work in the verification business … and blockchain is all about verification.
- Other studies offer similar predictions. Art Bilger, a venture capitalist and expert at the Wharton School of Business, says 47 percent of the jobs in all developed nations will disappear in the next 25 years — that’s blue-collar and white-collar jobs. Moreover, says The Economist, “no government is prepared” for that level of job loss. Other studies aren’t quite that alarmist. James Manyika, director of the McKinsey Global Institute, says “more jobs will change than will be automated away in the short to medium term.” Still, that change will be extreme. While only 5 percent of jobs can be completely automated over the next 10 years using current technologies, Manyika says at least 30 percent of the activities in 60 percent of all occupations can be automated over the next decade, from welders to gardeners to CEOs. One way or another — complete automation or partial — our jobs are about to change. This type of disruption is coming.
- Next up: Predict. Can you predict the future? So let’s see. Right now it’s summer. What comes after summer? Fall? And after that? Spring? You just predicted the future. How many of you have a smartphone? Will the next one be … So there are things about the future we can predict. If you can start basing your strategies and opportunities on things that are certain, you’ll have a much higher success rate and much lower risk. That’s what we mean by this idea of certainty.
- Our friend, Dan Burrus, a world-renowned futurist. He likes to say there are 3 hard trends – things that are definitely going to happen – three hard trends that are impacting our profession: -- government regulation -- technology -- demographics. So let’s predict the future: Next year, will you be a year older? So will every other person on earth. What will that mean? We all need more managers, right? Well, how long does it take to create, say, a 35-year-old manager? 35 years, right? They’re not going to magically appear. We need to figure out a way to ramp up the leadership skills of some of our high-potential millennials. So again, there are some things you can predict about the future. If you narrow those down and base your firm’s strategy around those certainties, risk goes down, higher rate of success.
- One more thing about certainty: Our inability to decide or move on some of these certainties is starting to cost you money. This is research from Clayton Christianson on disruption. And what he found was, the cost of saying no is zero. If I don’t spend money, I’ll be OK. I might not MAKE money, but in a stable environment, I’ll be OK. But in a fast-changing, disruptive environment like the one we’re in, saying no can actually cost you money. It can actually be fatal. And that’s worth thinking about.
- The consensus is clear: Accountants, auditors, finance professionals – they’re not going anywhere. But WHAT they do is going to have to change.
- And what is that research telling us? Well, the top skills that accounting and finance pros need today – from study to study to study. But you see, we’re all facing the same thing. These are things we need to learn how to do in this increasingly complex world. The funny thing is, when you ask CPAs how much they are investing in teaching these competencies to their teams? Very little. They say they need them, but they’re not spending the money to acquire them. That has to change.
- The good news is, we’re starting to see more and more resources being developed specifically to deliver these types of competencies for accounting and finance professionals. One is Daniel Burrus’s own Anticipatory Organization. The Business Learning Institute worked with Burrus to create a version of his Anticipatory Organization learning platform specifically for accounting and finance pros. That’s available now and is becoming extremely popular in the profession. Another is IBM’s Big Data University. It’s an online curriculum designed to help accounting and finance pros learn key skills in artificial intelligence, Big Data, and cognitive computing. And based on what we’ve been talking about today, these skills are going to be huge differentiators going forward, and will help CPAs play a bigger role in guiding digital transformation within their organizations.
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- The good news is, we’re starting to see more and more resources being developed specifically to deliver these types of competencies for accounting and finance professionals. One is Daniel Burrus’s own Anticipatory Organization. The Business Learning Institute worked with Burrus to create a version of his Anticipatory Organization learning platform specifically for accounting and finance pros. That’s available now and is becoming extremely popular in the profession. Another is IBM’s Big Data University. It’s an online curriculum designed to help accounting and finance pros learn key skills in artificial intelligence, Big Data, and cognitive computing. And based on what we’ve been talking about today, these skills are going to be huge differentiators going forward, and will help CPAs play a bigger role in guiding digital transformation within their organizations.
- “I still believe professional judgment and expertise is not replaceable by machines. I’ve never met a machine with courage and empathy, one that can read body language and adjust what they say. While we’re going to digest larger volumes of data and information, the key is to use artificial intelligence to augment what the human does. … Using these technologies to augment human intelligence and find the insights in the data is more important than ever.” Cathy Engelbert CEO, Deloitte
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