Technology disruption will cause the loss of 47% of jobs according to a recent Oxford study. This research looks at five technologies which will drive this wrenching change: Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Vehicles, Electronic Commerce, Internet of Things and Robotics. It examines the impact on CT but is very applicable to the United States as well.

1. A World Without
Enough Work
Five Disruptive Technologies and
Their Impact on Connecticut
William Kelvie and Joseph Smialowski
December, 2017

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Advances in Technology are Obsoleting Human Workers
The Connecticut labor force will lose 39% of its jobs over the next two decades to
technology disruption. These jobs will range from low skilled, low wage jobs to
highly skilled professionals.
The purpose of this document is to examine the disruptive technologies and to
estimate their impact on the Connecticut Workforce. It is one in a series of research
articles aimed at awakening policy makers to the looming threat of large scale
unemployment.
The authors of this report have had extensive experience as technology consultants
and executives. Both were born in Connecticut and maintain homes here. Their
entire objective is to see the state successfully navigate a potential crisis that could
eclipse that of the Great Depression.

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The Five Disruptive Technologies are:
Technology disruption describes a discontinuity in which accepted methods for
doing business must be discarded and new ways adopted, typically resulting in
large scale job loss and regional dislocation. Current disruptive technologies
negatively impacting 39% of the state’s workforce include:
1. Artificial Intelligence
2. Autonomous Vehicles
3. Electronic Commerce
4. Internet of Things
5. Robotics
The research this document draws upon is based on work by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne of
Oxford University as well as other major studies.

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Technology Innovations, Capital and Entrepreneurship
Technology Disruption is a powerful combination of Technology Innovations, Capital &
Entrepreneurship.
All the innovations deployed in the five disruptive technologies have existed for decades – nothing new needs to be invented –
Artificial Intelligence dates back to Stanford in 1956, the Internet to 1969.
Disruptions are typically complex integrations of multiple innovations, rather than a single technology. Driverless cars combine
artificial intelligence, Global Positioning Satellites, sensors, computer vision, radar and LIDAR (Light Imaging Detection and Radar)
among others. This ability to leverage an array of technologies saves vast amounts of time and capital, permitting unprecedented
speed.
Entrepreneurs drive the most successful disruptions with vision, ruthless pursuit of their goals, and a disregard for the impact they
have on the established order – both good and bad. In his lifetime, Steve Jobs disrupted publishing, music, animated movies,
mobile phones, personal computers, and publishing, while inventing none of the technologies involved.
Venture Capital is massively available to entrepreneurs who demonstrate the drive to disrupt major sectors of the economy.
Before his dismissal, Travis Kalanick, CEO of Uber, raised and spent $11.5 billion in venture capital while the company continues to
lose money - $1 billion in the last two years.
While disruptions bring immense benefits to humanity, such as a smartphone providing all the world’s knowledge at our fingertips,
they must also bring radically improved economics – most typically based on reducing the need for labor and therefore jobs.

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#1 Artificial Intelligence
The most important general purpose technology of our era is artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning
(ML) - that is, the machine’s ability to keep improving its performance without humans having to explain exactly
how to accomplish all the tasks it's given….We can now build systems and learn how to perform tasks on their
own. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Harvard Business Review, July, 2017
Definition: A branch of computer science in which the computer applies logic to data, typically derived from
statistics to see patterns and make inferences to make projections more accurate. Examples:
1. Detecting credit card fraud by determining the likelihood that a card holder is in two distant places within
a small-time window.
2. Diagnosing that a chest pain is a digestive issue rather than a cardiac event.
3. Determining that you will buy a mystery novel, or a song or a cooking utensil because people who share
your tastes bought it before you.
4. Anticipating that the road ahead is slick with wet leaves which will call for a different braking technique.
After being greatly over hyped virtually since its beginning 60 years ago AI has come of age in the last few decades,
enabled by vast amounts of cheap computing power and low cost data storage. It will strongly impact “knowledge
workers,” professionals who populate a well-educated state like Connecticut.

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The Impact of AI on Connecticut
Robo Advisors are not robots but are AI powered software programs that are a substitute for human
financial advisors. Pioneered by start-ups such as Betterment and Wealthfront, they scour capital
markets seeking investment opportunities for their clients while charging miniscule fees such as
.15% in contrast to human advisors. There are 4,300 personal financial advisors employed in the
state with an average salary of $133,000. Frey and Osborne project that 58% are at risk of being
displaced by automation such as robo-advisors.
The total number of jobs at risk in Connecticut is 427,500 with an average probability of elimination
attributable to AI of 59%, leaving 173,166 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Computer Programmers 5,850 48% 2,808
Claims Adjusters 4,980 98% 196
Paralegals 4,920 94% 296
Loan Officers 2,200 98% 44

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#2. Autonomous Vehicles
Personal injury lawyers will see a significant decrease in demand for their services. Vehicle collisions, which accounted for 35
percent of all civil trials in 2005, will be all but eliminated with automated vehicles. While this may seem like a niche of
professionals, around 76,000 attorneys in the U.S. specialize in personal injury and make up 6 percent of the country’s
population of lawyers. Joel Barbier, Director, Cisco Digitization Office
Autonomous Vehicles include Driverless cars and, importantly, trucks and buses. The pace of innovation has accelerated from
early prototypes at Carnegie Mellon University 30 years ago to a major race between car manufacturers, Uber and technology
giants including Apple and Google. The competition extends to Trucks, Planes and Ships. Expected benefits include:
A 90% reduction in accidents – that is the percentage which are caused by human error, largely due to distractions and impairment.
A reduction in highway congestion, because AV’s will drive safely and predictably at high speed closer together to better utilize existing
roads.
Better Urban Land Usage, freeing up expensive parking lots and garages. AV’s can be parked in lower cost areas and brought around as
needed.
Greatly enhanced mobility for the disabled, elderly and young
Through autonomous trucking, a great reduction in the cost and time to ship goods long distance. Currently, human drivers are capped
at 11 hours per day while driverless vehicles will safely operate 24/7.
These and other benefits will drive adoption – California is expected to approve driverless vehicles for use in 2018.

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The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Connecticut
In the state of Connecticut, there are 55,000 professional drivers of light
and heavy vehicles.
Selected Connecticut Jobs at Risk Due to AV’s
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Taxi Drivers & Chauffeurs 3,840 89% 423
Heavy Truck Drivers 13,900 79% 2,919
Light Truck Drivers 10,530 69% 3,263
School Bus Drivers 10,260 89% 1,129
Other Bus Drivers 1,650 67% 545
The total number of jobs at risk in the state is 54,630 with an average probability of
elimination of 79% attributable to AV’s, leaving 11,515 employed.

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#3. Electronic Commerce
Let’s imagine, for a moment, a decade from now. The year is 2027. By then, Amazon has become the largest on-line
grocer in the United States-and it’s not even close. In apparel, the e-commerce behemoth long ago surpassed
Macy’s as the biggest retailer in the category, but now boasts multiple billion-dollar clothing brands of its own, too.
Amazon Alexa, the popular voice assistant, has overtaken Google as the most used search engine- or voice engine,
as they say now. It’s everywhere and powering the brains of everything. Jason Del Ray, recode, Dec. 6, 2017
E Commerce is exemplified by Amazon, which accounts for almost half. It has these structural advantages:
Huge productivity advantage over brick and mortar stores – per employee it is $1,267,000 in sales versus $279,000
The ability to drive productivity and volume purchasing into the lowest cost
The ability to manage massive inventory into an “endless aisle” of consumer choice
A far more comprehensive knowledge of the consumer including perfect memory of every purchase as well as near misses
Leveraging AI and big data to recommend purchases based on the similar tastes of thousands of consumers
Retail sales is a crucial gateway for non-college graduates entering the workforce. An epidemic of store and mall
closings is denying this opportunity.

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The Impact of Electronic Commerce on Connecticut
Selected Sales Occupations at Risk:
The total number of jobs at risk in the state is 92,690 with an average probability of
elimination of 78% attributable to EC, leaving 20,736 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Retail Sales Persons 51,540 92% 4,124
Insurance Sales Agents 6,450 92% 516
Wholesale Sales Reps 15,200 85% 2,280
Merchandise Displayers 900 48% 468
Order Clerks 1,410 98% 29

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#4: Internet of Things
Pill-shaped micro cameras already traverse the human digestive track and send back thousands of images to pinpoint sources of
illness. Precision farming equipment with wireless links to data collected from remote satellites and ground sensors can take into
account crop conditions and adjust the way each individual part of a field is farmed – for instance, by spreading extra fertilizer on
areas that need more nutrients. Billboards in Japan peer back at passersby, assessing how they fit consumer profiles, and instantly
change displayed messages based on those assessments. Michael Chui, Markus Loeffler and Roger Roberts; The Internet of
Things, McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010
The Internet of Things (IoT) is basically a network of sensors, which capture and share data with actuators that respond with an
appropriate action, such as opening a valve or sounding an alarm. These devices are enabled by the radically low costs of the
internet, permitting them to interoperate as well as to alert human and software monitors. The applications that IoT has created
include:
Smart Farming: the use of sensors in fields- coupled with satellite images- to determine efficient irrigation and fertilization
practices. Also to track livestock.
Smart Homes: the use of sensors and cameras to manage energy and security systems.
Smart Grid: Better management of power grids to move energy more effectively and reduce leakages.
Smart Cities: More efficient management of problems facing cities including traffic and public transportation, crime, waste
management and energy.
The descriptor, Smart, indicates the leverage of software, deployed through cloud infrastructure to bring intelligence to activities
at a price point that was unimaginable a decade ago. Sensors whose costs are rapidly approaching pennies are also an enabler.

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The Impact of the Internet of Things on Connecticut
Selected jobs at risk due to the Internet of Things:
The total number of jobs at risk in the state is 102,100 with an average probability of
elimination of 75%, leaving 25,702 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Security Guards 11,610 84% 1,858
Maintenance & Repair 10,510 64% 3,784
Cashiers 38,800 97% 1,164
Inspectors & Testers 8,140 98% 162

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#5 Robotics: Manufacturing
Today’s robots have voice and language recognition, access to large amounts of data, algorithms to process
information independently, greater mobility and dexterity, advanced sensors, and the ability to interact with their
environment. They have gained flexibility, speed and finesse, clearing the way for a generation of precision robots
that can slice meats, sort and fill prescriptions, pick and pack warehouse orders, or harvest fruits and vegetables –
far more quickly and accurately than human hands can. Gaining Robotics Advantage, Boston Consulting Group
Report, June 14, 2017
The first industrial robot was invented by an American, George Devol, and was deployed in 1961 at a General
Motors plant. Today, roughly half of all robots are deployed in automobile manufacturing, because:
Automobiles are an expensive product with margins that permit greater capital investment
The competition between car manufacturers is based on quality, which is significantly enhanced by robots
The presence of skilled engineers who have been architecting assembly lines since the days of Henry Ford
Ample room on factory floors to cordon off the robots from human laborers, protecting the latter
Highly predictable speed and tasks
Jobs such as spray painting are toxic to humans and therefore more desirable to assign to robots
Multi-shift operations permit the ability to amortize robot acquisition costs more quickly
As Robot prices drop, their “virtual” hourly rate falls below minimum wage

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The impact of Robotics on Connecticut Manufacturing
CT Manufacturing Jobs subject to robotics:
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Sheet Metal Workers 1,170 82% 211
Electrical Assemblers 3,370 95% 169
Foundry Mold Makers 120 67% 80
Machinists 7,660 65% 2,681
Assemblers 9,740 97% 292

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#6. Robotics in the Service Sector: Fast Food
McDonalds’ shares hit an all-time high on Tuesday as Wall Street expects sales to increase from new digital ordering
kiosks that will replace cashiers in 2,500 restaurants. CNBC, June 20, 2017
Robots in the service sector have progressed far more slowly, in part because the venues are the opposite of
manufacturing – small, unstructured space and more varied tasks. A logical entry point is the fast food industry,
where chains such as Eatsa have created fully automated restaurants.
Fast Food is a major employer of young, undereducated workers, but suffers 300% turnover annually because of
low wages and limited upward mobility. Owners are attacking costs and management issues by automating the
front of the store with kiosks and smartphone ordering. The actual food preparation is also being automated with
robots such as Flippy, which can grill 400 burgers an hour.
Flippy costs $60,000 to acquire, but assuming a typical 12-hour shift for 350
days annually, and a three year useful life, Flippy’s hourly wage equivalent is
$4.75. This is far below the national average of $7.25 and the aspiration of
$15.00 an hour.

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The Impact of Robotics on the Service Economy in Connecticut
Food related jobs are a significant part of the Connecticut economy, accounting for
almost 5% of all jobs. Automation, principally through robots, will reduce these jobs:
Other service areas subject to disruption from robots include janitors, home healthcare aides and
groundskeepers.
The total number of jobs at risk in the state due to robotics of all types is 399,760 with an average
probability of elimination of 80%, leaving 78,857 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Cooks, Fast Food 6,380 81% 1,212
Cooks, Inst and Cafeteria 3,530 83% 600
Fast Food Servers/Prep 29,790 92% 2,383
Food Prep Workers 10,090 87% 1,312
Bartenders 7,740 77% 1,780

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Summary: The Impact of Disruptive Technology in Connecticut
Taken together, and using a more conservative risk measure, almost 40% of
Connecticut jobs will be eliminated over the next two decades:
AI and robotics together will impact half of the workforce. AI will impact professional and managerial
ranks of the college educated, while robotics will displace less educated workers at the lower end of the
wage scale.
Disruptor Population Impacted Jobs Lost Percent Lost
Artificial Intelligence 427,500 254,334 59%
Robotics 399,760 320,903 80%
Internet of Things 102,100 76,398 75%
Electronic Commerce 92,690 71,954 78%
Autonomous Vehicles 54,630 43,115 79%
Totals: 1,076,680 766,703 71%

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Summary: Workers with Jobs will also be Impacted
Jobs will be very hard to get and difficult to leave, given half the
population that is unemployed would welcome the opportunity.
Employers will be faced with a competitive and declining wage/price
spiral that will drastically pressure earnings, resulting in more lay-offs
and wage give-ups.
Technology costs will continue to plummet, giving employers more
options to eliminate jobs.
Artificial Intelligence Software that is more informed, subtle and precise
will marginalize all but the most knowledgeable human experts.

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Where Do We Go From Here:
The authors wish to initiate a discussion with Stakeholders in the state
about the looming threat of disruption.
Other research papers are being prepared on related topics including a
deeper analysis of the impact on specific labor markets within the state.
Also being developed is a slate of recommendations covering areas such
as education and potential investments.
Comments are most welcome. The authors can be contacted at:
Bill Kelvie, billkelvie@gmail.com Joe Smialowski, jsmialowski@gmail.com