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What is All This Debt Getting Us?
- 1. $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.90 $0.30 $0.80 1966-01-01 1967-02-01 1968-03-01 1969-04-01 1970-05-01 1971-06-01 1972-07-01 1973-08-01 1974-09-01 1975-10-01 1976-11-01 1977-12-01 1979-01-01 1980-02-01 1981-03-01 1982-04-01 1983-05-01 1984-06-01 1985-07-01 1986-08-01 1987-09-01 1988-10-01 1989-11-01 1990-12-01 1992-01-01 that our economy produces, we borrowed 80 cents. 1993-02-01 Debt Incurred per Dollar of GDP 1994-03-01 1995-04-01 1996-05-01 1997-06-01 1998-07-01 1999-08-01 2000-09-01 2001-10-01 2002-11-01 2003-12-01 2005-01-01 2006-02-01 2007-03-01 GDP – by the end of 2008 this number grew to 80 cents. So for every dollar 2008-04-01 As of 1966 the United States incurred about 42 cents of debt for every dollar of
- 2. $0.00 $0.10 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.20 1980-04-01 1980-07-01 1980-10-01 1981-01-01 1981-04-01 1981-07-01 1981-10-01 1982-01-01 1982-04-01 1982-07-01 1982-10-01 1983-01-01 1983-04-01 1983-07-01 1983-10-01 1984-01-01 1984-04-01 1984-07-01 1984-10-01 1985-01-01 1985-04-01 1985-07-01 1985-10-01 cents for every dollar that the US economy generated. 1986-01-01 1986-04-01 1986-07-01 Dollar of Debt per Dollar of GDP Under Reagan 1986-10-01 1987-01-01 1987-04-01 1987-07-01 1987-10-01 1988-01-01 1988-04-01 1988-07-01 Under President Reagan, this number grew from about 32 cents per dollar of GDP to just over 50 cents. During his presidency, Ronald Reagan borrowed 71 1988-10-01 1989-01-01
- 3. Dollar of Debt per Dollar of GDP Under Bush II $0.68 $0.66 $0.64 $0.62 $0.60 $0.58 $0.56 $0.54 $0.52 $0.50 2001-04-01 2001-10-01 2002-01-01 2002-04-01 2002-10-01 2003-01-01 2003-04-01 2003-07-01 2003-10-01 2004-01-01 2004-04-01 2004-07-01 2005-01-01 2005-04-01 2005-07-01 2005-10-01 2006-01-01 2006-04-01 2006-07-01 2006-10-01 2007-04-01 2007-07-01 2007-10-01 2008-01-01 2008-04-01 2008-07-01 2008-10-01 2009-01-01 2001-07-01 2002-07-01 2004-10-01 2007-01-01 Under George W. Bush, this number continued to grow, as we borrowed 66 cents for every dollar of GDP by the end of his second term. In 8 years, George W. Bush borrowed $1.42 for every dollar that our economy generated – this means that we were growing our debt faster than our economy was growing
- 4. $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 2009-04-01 2009-05-01 2009-06-01 2009-07-01 2009-08-01 2009-09-01 2009-10-01 2009-11-01 2009-12-01 2010-01-01 2010-02-01 2010-03-01 2010-04-01 2010-05-01 2010-06-01 2010-07-01 2010-08-01 2010-09-01 2010-10-01 2010-11-01 2010-12-01 2011-01-01 2011-02-01 2011-03-01 2011-04-01 2011-05-01 2011-06-01 Dollar of Debt per Dollar of GDP Under Obama 2011-07-01 2011-08-01 2011-09-01 2011-10-01 2011-11-01 2011-12-01 2012-01-01 2012-02-01 2012-03-01 Obama has borrowed $2.84 for every dollar generated by our economy. compounded annual growth rate of 6.4%. Since he took office, President dollar that our economy generates. In 4 years, this number has grown at a 2012-04-01 The United States, under President Obama, is now borrowing $1.02 for every
- 5. Here is a Side-by-Side Comparison of Each President’s First Term 5000.0 $2.84 $3.00 4500.0 $2.50 4000.0 3500.0 $2.00 3000.0 2500.0 $1.50 2000.0 $0.81 $1.00 1500.0 $0.72 $0.57 1000.0 $0.50 500.0 0.0 $0.00 Reagan Clinton GWB Obama Incremental GDP Incremental Debt Debt per Dollar of GDP (Right Axis)
- 6. What do We Have to Show for All This Debt?
- 7. More Jobs? Non-Farm Payrolls 144,000 143,000 142,000 141,000 140,000 139,000 138,000 137,000 136,000 135,000 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Jul-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 A Rocking .15% Annual Growth Rate
- 8. More Full-Time Jobs? Non-Farm Payrolls: Full-Time Jobs 117,000 116,000 115,000 114,000 113,000 112,000 111,000 110,000 109,000 108,000 107,000 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Jul-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 We in Fact have LESS Full-time Jobs – All the Jobs Created Since 2009 Have Been Part-Time Jobs
- 9. At Least Reagan Created Some Jobs with The Debt he Incurred Non-Farm Payrolls 108,000 106,000 104,000 102,000 100,000 98,000 96,000 94,000 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Apr-81 Apr-82 Apr-83 Apr-84 Jan-81 Jan-84 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jul-81 Jul-84 Jul-82 Jul-83 An Increase of 5.5 Million Jobs at the Same Point in His Presidency – 4.5 Million of Which Were Full-time Jobs
- 11. 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 2009-01-01 2009-04-01 2009-07-01 2009-10-01 2010-01-01 2010-04-01 2010-07-01 2010-10-01 2011-01-01 2011-04-01 2011-07-01 S&P 500 Priced in Gold 2011-10-01 Gold than in 2009! 2012-01-01 2012-04-01 2012-07-01 2012-10-01 One Share of the S&P 500 Buys LESS Not When Priced in Ounces of Gold!
- 12. And Not When Priced in Barrels of Oil! S&P 500 Priced in Oil 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 One Share of the S&P 500 Buys 25% LESS Oil than in January of 2009!
- 13. But Personal Incomes are up, Right? Real Disposable Personal Income $10,400 $10,300 $10,200 $10,100 $10,000 $9,900 $9,800 $9,700 $9,600 $9,500 $9,400 $9,300 2009-01-01 2009-04-01 2009-07-01 2010-01-01 2010-07-01 2010-10-01 2011-01-01 2011-04-01 2011-10-01 2012-04-01 2012-07-01 2009-10-01 2010-04-01 2011-07-01 2012-01-01 By .72% Per Year – Less Than the Rate of Inflation
- 14. Is This What a Recovery Looks Like? Labor Force Participation Rate 66.0% 65.5% 65.0% 64.5% 64.0% 63.5% 63.0% 62.5% 62.0% Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-09 Apr-12 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12
- 15. Perhaps a Longer View Might Help Labor Force Participation Rate is the Lowest it’s Been in 30 Years
- 16. Four Years of Hope and Reckless Borrowing and Spending… AND NO NEW JOBS WE NEED MORE THAN HOPE
- 17. Sources • Federal Reserve Economic Data – http://research.stlouisfed.org/datatools.html • Bureau of Labor and Statistics – http://bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab9.htm