5. 5
Looking Across Two Millennia
Agreed findings:
• From the end of the Roman Empire to
roughly year 1500, there was essentially no
growth of output per capita in Europe.
• From about 1500 to 1700, growth of output
per capita turned positive, about 0.1% per
year
• On the scale of human history, the growth of
output per capita is a recent phenomenon.
8. 8
Post World War II
• 1948 -1972
Japan 8.2% Germany 5.7% U.S. 2.2%
• 1965-1990
Asian Tigers:
Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, HK, Thailand,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan:
g = 5.5% for the group
11. 11
Growth Arithmetic
The magic of compounding:
Even a small increase in the
growth rate makes a big
difference if it is sustained
12. Why growth matters
Anything that affects the long-run rate of economic
growth – even by a tiny amount – will have huge
effects on living standards in the long run.
1,081.4%243.7%85.4%
624.5%169.2%64.0%
2.5%
2.0%
…100 years…50 years…25 years
percentage increase in
standard of living after…
annual
growth rate
of income per
capita
12
13. What is GDP, PPP?
• Use of GDP deflator to correct for nominal
changes
• Use of PPP to correct for price inequalities
13
16. Rapidly Increasing Inequality
• Most important fact about global incomes:
• Enormous differences
• Growth rate differentials responsible for rapid
increases in disparity
16