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M i c r o s o f t
There are a number of theories why
markets are more volatile: global
growth fears, policy uncertainty, geopo-
litical risk and even the Ebola virus.
These issues are not new. Different
time, different scenario but there is
always something gong on in the eco-
nomic playground.
In some ways, the increase in volatility
in recent weeks could be just as much a
reflection that volatility has been very
low for some time. Corrections happen.
Markets do not move in one direction
and if volatility remained low forever,
there would probably be more reason to
worry.
What is the answer? We have always
maintained that investors can manage
their risk by diversifying across and
within asset classes. Keep cost down
and don’t let emotions rule.
debra@northforkinvesting.com
772-475-6314
jerry@northforkinvesting.com
772-631-8657
Quarter ending December 31, 2014
For those still anxious:
Don’t make presumptions: Markets are unpredictable
and do not always react the way the experts pre-
dict.
Someone is buying: Quitting the market when prices
are falling is like running away from a sale. Re-
member someone is always buying.
Market time is hard: Recoveries can come just as
quickly and just as violently as the prior correc-
tion.
Never forget the power of diversification: Diversifica-
tion spreads risk and can lessen the bumps in the
road.
Markets and economies are different things: The world
economy is forever changing. Falling oil prices
can be bad for the energy sector but good for con-
sumers.
Nothing lasts forever: Smart investors temper their
enthusiasm in booms and keep a reserve of opti-
mism during busts. Loading up when prices are
high can leave you exposed to a correction as wells
as dumping altogether when low means you miss
the run when it comes.
Discipline is rewarded: Through discipline, diversifica-
tion , and cost care the ride can be bearable.
THE DATA, INFORMATION, AND CONTENT IN THIS NEWSLETTER ARE FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. YOU SHOULD NOT CONSTRUE ANY SUCH INFORMATION OR OTHER CONTENT IN HERE AS INVESTMENT, LEGAL, ACCOUNTING OR TAX
ADVICE. CONSULT YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND/OR TAX SPECIALIST BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. INVESTING ALWAYS HAS RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF PRINCIPAL. NO ASSURANCES OR GUARANTEES ARE
GIVEN REGARDING THE PERFORMANCE OF ANY INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
180
185
190
195
200
World Stock Market Performance
4
Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2014, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily
events from a longer-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.
MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q3 2014
Jul Aug Sep
“Stocks Are
Picking Up Speed”
“Home Builder Optimism
Hits Six-Month High”
“Consumer Rebound
Chugs Ahead”
“US Says Missile Downed
Malaysia Airlines Plane
over Ukraine”
“Unemployment Claims
Hit Eight-Year Low”
“Ebola Virus Crisis
Worsens for Lack
of Global Help”
“Growth Rebound
Stokes Fed Debate”
“US, EU Widen
Sanctions on Russia”
“Resurgent US Dollar
Fuels Rally”
“Israel Says It Is Escalating
Gaza Campaign”
“US Bank Profits Near
Record Levels”
“US New Home
Sales Surge 18%
in August; Highest
Level Since 2008”
“US-Led Airstrikes
Aid Syrian Kurds, Target
Islamic State Oil Assets”
“European Bonds
Go Negative”
Don’t let emotions rule
investment decisions.
Timing the market an be
hazardous. When you
sell at economic fear
levels it is difficult to
time getting back in
before the swing back
up. Losses add up. Hold
firm. It can look like a
rollercoaster ride other-
wise.
Please contact us if there are
any changes in your financial
situation or investment objec-
tives; or if you wish to impose,
add, or modify any reasonable
restrictions to our investment
management services. If you
wish to receive a new ADVII
(our disclosure document)
please feel free to request it. We
will do our utmost to keep you
informed of any changes in our
firm through regular corre-
spondence and these quarterly
letters.
Are Markets becoming more volatile?
Page 2
This story can fit 150-200
words.
One benefit of using your
newsletter as a promotional
tool is that you can reuse
content from other marketing
materials, such as press re-
leases, market studies, and
reports.
While your main goal of dis-
tributing a newsletter might
be to sell your product or
service, the key to a success-
ful newsletter is making it
useful to your readers.
A great way to add useful
content to your newsletter is
to develop and write your
own articles, or include a
calendar of upcoming events
or a special offer that pro-
motes a new prod-
uct.
You can also re-
search articles or
find “filler” articles
by accessing the
World Wide Web.
You can write about
a variety of topics
but try to keep your
articles short.
Much of the content
you put in your newsletter
can also be used for your
Web site. Microsoft Publisher
offers a simple way to convert
your newsletter to a Web
publication. So,
when you’re finished
writing your newslet-
ter, convert it to a
Web site and post it.
your article and ask yourself
if the picture supports or
enhances the message you’re
trying to convey.
Avoid selecting
images that appear
to be out of context.
Microsoft Publisher
includes thousands
of clip art images
from which you can
This story can fit 75-125
words.
Selecting pic-
tures or
graphics is an
important part
of adding con-
tent to your
newsletter.
Think about
choose and import into your
newsletter. There are also
several tools you can use to
draw shapes and symbols.
Once you have chosen an
image, place it close to the
article. Be sure to place the
caption of the image near the
image.
You may also want to note
business or economic trends,
or make predictions for your
customers or clients.
If the newsletter is distribut-
ed internally, you might com-
ment upon new procedures
or improvements to the busi-
ness. Sales figures or earn-
ings will show how your busi-
ness is growing.
Some newsletters include a
column that is updated every
issue, for instance, an advice
column, a book review, a
letter from the president, or
an editorial. You can also
profile new employees or top
This story can fit 100-150
words.
The subject matter that ap-
pears in newsletters is virtu-
ally endless. You can include
stories that focus on current
technologies or innovations
in your field.
“To catch the
reader's attention,
place an interesting
sentence or quote
from the story
here.”
Inside Story Headline
Inside Story Headline
Caption describ-
ing picture or
Inside Story Headline
Caption de-
scribing pic-
Page 3
This story can fit 150-200
words.
One benefit of using your
newsletter as a promotional
tool is that you can reuse
content from other marketing
materials, such as press re-
leases, market studies, and
reports.
While your main goal of dis-
tributing a newsletter might
be to sell your product or
service, the key to a success-
ful newsletter is making it
useful to your readers.
A great way to add useful
content to your newsletter is
to develop and write your
own articles, or include a
calendar of upcoming events
or a special offer that pro-
motes a new product.
You can also research
articles or find “filler”
articles by accessing
the World Wide Web.
You can write about a
variety of topics but
try to keep your arti-
cles short.
Much of the content
you put in your news-
letter can also be used
for your Web site. Microsoft
Publisher offers a simple way
to convert your newsletter to
a Web publication. So, when
you’re finished writing your
newsletter, con-
vert it to a Web
site and post it.
the message
you’re trying to
convey. Avoid
selecting images
that appear to be
out of context.
Microsoft Pub-
lisher includes
thousands of clip art images
from which you can choose
and import into your news-
This story can fit
75-125 words.
Selecting pictures
or graphics is an
important part of
adding content to
your newsletter.
Think about your
article and ask yourself if the
picture supports or enhances
letter. There are also several
tools you can use to draw
shapes and symbols.
Once you have chosen an
image, place it close to the
article. Be sure to place the
caption of the image near the
image.
Inside Story Headline
Inside Story Headline
You may also want to note
business or economic trends,
or make predictions for your
customers or clients.
If the newsletter is distribut-
ed internally, you might com-
ment upon new procedures
or improvements to the busi-
ness. Sales figures or earn-
ings will show how your busi-
ness is growing.
Some newsletters include a
column that is updated every
issue, for instance, an advice
column, a book review, a
letter from the president, or
an editorial. You can also
profile new employees or top
This story can fit 100-150
words.
The subject matter that ap-
pears in newsletters is virtu-
ally endless. You can include
stories that focus on current
technologies or innovations
in your field.
“To catch the
reader's attention,
place an interesting
sentence or quote
from the story
here.”
Inside Story Headline
Caption describ-
ing picture or
Caption de-
scribing pic-
This would be a good place to insert a short paragraph about your organization. It
might include the purpose of the organization, its mission, founding date, and a
brief history. You could also include a brief list of the types of products, services,
or programs your organization offers, the geographic area covered (for example,
western U.S. or European markets), and a profile of the types of customers or
members served.
It would also be useful to include a contact name for readers who want more infor-
mation about the organization.
Primary Business Address
Your Address Line 2
Your Address Line 3
Your Address Line 4
Microsoft
touch. If your organization is
small, you may want to list
the names of all employees.
If you have any prices of
standard products or ser-
This story can fit 175-225
words.
If your newsletter is folded
and mailed, this story will
appear on the back. So, it’s a
good idea to make it easy to
read at a glance.
A question and answer ses-
sion is a good way to quickly
capture the attention of read-
ers. You can either compile
questions that you’ve re-
ceived since the last edition
or you can summarize some
generic questions that are
frequently asked about your
organization.
A listing of names and titles
of managers in your organi-
zation is a good way to give
your newsletter a personal
vices, you can include a list-
ing of those here. You may
want to refer your readers to
any other forms of communi-
cation that you’ve created for
your organization.
Back Page Story Headline
Phone: 555-555-5555
Fax: 555-555-5555
E-mail: someone@example.com
Your business tag line
here.
We’re on the Web!
example.com
Organization
Caption describing picture or graphic.

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Markets volatility

  • 1. M i c r o s o f t There are a number of theories why markets are more volatile: global growth fears, policy uncertainty, geopo- litical risk and even the Ebola virus. These issues are not new. Different time, different scenario but there is always something gong on in the eco- nomic playground. In some ways, the increase in volatility in recent weeks could be just as much a reflection that volatility has been very low for some time. Corrections happen. Markets do not move in one direction and if volatility remained low forever, there would probably be more reason to worry. What is the answer? We have always maintained that investors can manage their risk by diversifying across and within asset classes. Keep cost down and don’t let emotions rule. debra@northforkinvesting.com 772-475-6314 jerry@northforkinvesting.com 772-631-8657 Quarter ending December 31, 2014 For those still anxious: Don’t make presumptions: Markets are unpredictable and do not always react the way the experts pre- dict. Someone is buying: Quitting the market when prices are falling is like running away from a sale. Re- member someone is always buying. Market time is hard: Recoveries can come just as quickly and just as violently as the prior correc- tion. Never forget the power of diversification: Diversifica- tion spreads risk and can lessen the bumps in the road. Markets and economies are different things: The world economy is forever changing. Falling oil prices can be bad for the energy sector but good for con- sumers. Nothing lasts forever: Smart investors temper their enthusiasm in booms and keep a reserve of opti- mism during busts. Loading up when prices are high can leave you exposed to a correction as wells as dumping altogether when low means you miss the run when it comes. Discipline is rewarded: Through discipline, diversifica- tion , and cost care the ride can be bearable. THE DATA, INFORMATION, AND CONTENT IN THIS NEWSLETTER ARE FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. YOU SHOULD NOT CONSTRUE ANY SUCH INFORMATION OR OTHER CONTENT IN HERE AS INVESTMENT, LEGAL, ACCOUNTING OR TAX ADVICE. CONSULT YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND/OR TAX SPECIALIST BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. INVESTING ALWAYS HAS RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF PRINCIPAL. NO ASSURANCES OR GUARANTEES ARE GIVEN REGARDING THE PERFORMANCE OF ANY INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. 180 185 190 195 200 World Stock Market Performance 4 Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2014, all rights reserved. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a longer-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q3 2014 Jul Aug Sep “Stocks Are Picking Up Speed” “Home Builder Optimism Hits Six-Month High” “Consumer Rebound Chugs Ahead” “US Says Missile Downed Malaysia Airlines Plane over Ukraine” “Unemployment Claims Hit Eight-Year Low” “Ebola Virus Crisis Worsens for Lack of Global Help” “Growth Rebound Stokes Fed Debate” “US, EU Widen Sanctions on Russia” “Resurgent US Dollar Fuels Rally” “Israel Says It Is Escalating Gaza Campaign” “US Bank Profits Near Record Levels” “US New Home Sales Surge 18% in August; Highest Level Since 2008” “US-Led Airstrikes Aid Syrian Kurds, Target Islamic State Oil Assets” “European Bonds Go Negative” Don’t let emotions rule investment decisions. Timing the market an be hazardous. When you sell at economic fear levels it is difficult to time getting back in before the swing back up. Losses add up. Hold firm. It can look like a rollercoaster ride other- wise. Please contact us if there are any changes in your financial situation or investment objec- tives; or if you wish to impose, add, or modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment management services. If you wish to receive a new ADVII (our disclosure document) please feel free to request it. We will do our utmost to keep you informed of any changes in our firm through regular corre- spondence and these quarterly letters. Are Markets becoming more volatile?
  • 2. Page 2 This story can fit 150-200 words. One benefit of using your newsletter as a promotional tool is that you can reuse content from other marketing materials, such as press re- leases, market studies, and reports. While your main goal of dis- tributing a newsletter might be to sell your product or service, the key to a success- ful newsletter is making it useful to your readers. A great way to add useful content to your newsletter is to develop and write your own articles, or include a calendar of upcoming events or a special offer that pro- motes a new prod- uct. You can also re- search articles or find “filler” articles by accessing the World Wide Web. You can write about a variety of topics but try to keep your articles short. Much of the content you put in your newsletter can also be used for your Web site. Microsoft Publisher offers a simple way to convert your newsletter to a Web publication. So, when you’re finished writing your newslet- ter, convert it to a Web site and post it. your article and ask yourself if the picture supports or enhances the message you’re trying to convey. Avoid selecting images that appear to be out of context. Microsoft Publisher includes thousands of clip art images from which you can This story can fit 75-125 words. Selecting pic- tures or graphics is an important part of adding con- tent to your newsletter. Think about choose and import into your newsletter. There are also several tools you can use to draw shapes and symbols. Once you have chosen an image, place it close to the article. Be sure to place the caption of the image near the image. You may also want to note business or economic trends, or make predictions for your customers or clients. If the newsletter is distribut- ed internally, you might com- ment upon new procedures or improvements to the busi- ness. Sales figures or earn- ings will show how your busi- ness is growing. Some newsletters include a column that is updated every issue, for instance, an advice column, a book review, a letter from the president, or an editorial. You can also profile new employees or top This story can fit 100-150 words. The subject matter that ap- pears in newsletters is virtu- ally endless. You can include stories that focus on current technologies or innovations in your field. “To catch the reader's attention, place an interesting sentence or quote from the story here.” Inside Story Headline Inside Story Headline Caption describ- ing picture or Inside Story Headline Caption de- scribing pic-
  • 3. Page 3 This story can fit 150-200 words. One benefit of using your newsletter as a promotional tool is that you can reuse content from other marketing materials, such as press re- leases, market studies, and reports. While your main goal of dis- tributing a newsletter might be to sell your product or service, the key to a success- ful newsletter is making it useful to your readers. A great way to add useful content to your newsletter is to develop and write your own articles, or include a calendar of upcoming events or a special offer that pro- motes a new product. You can also research articles or find “filler” articles by accessing the World Wide Web. You can write about a variety of topics but try to keep your arti- cles short. Much of the content you put in your news- letter can also be used for your Web site. Microsoft Publisher offers a simple way to convert your newsletter to a Web publication. So, when you’re finished writing your newsletter, con- vert it to a Web site and post it. the message you’re trying to convey. Avoid selecting images that appear to be out of context. Microsoft Pub- lisher includes thousands of clip art images from which you can choose and import into your news- This story can fit 75-125 words. Selecting pictures or graphics is an important part of adding content to your newsletter. Think about your article and ask yourself if the picture supports or enhances letter. There are also several tools you can use to draw shapes and symbols. Once you have chosen an image, place it close to the article. Be sure to place the caption of the image near the image. Inside Story Headline Inside Story Headline You may also want to note business or economic trends, or make predictions for your customers or clients. If the newsletter is distribut- ed internally, you might com- ment upon new procedures or improvements to the busi- ness. Sales figures or earn- ings will show how your busi- ness is growing. Some newsletters include a column that is updated every issue, for instance, an advice column, a book review, a letter from the president, or an editorial. You can also profile new employees or top This story can fit 100-150 words. The subject matter that ap- pears in newsletters is virtu- ally endless. You can include stories that focus on current technologies or innovations in your field. “To catch the reader's attention, place an interesting sentence or quote from the story here.” Inside Story Headline Caption describ- ing picture or Caption de- scribing pic-
  • 4. This would be a good place to insert a short paragraph about your organization. It might include the purpose of the organization, its mission, founding date, and a brief history. You could also include a brief list of the types of products, services, or programs your organization offers, the geographic area covered (for example, western U.S. or European markets), and a profile of the types of customers or members served. It would also be useful to include a contact name for readers who want more infor- mation about the organization. Primary Business Address Your Address Line 2 Your Address Line 3 Your Address Line 4 Microsoft touch. If your organization is small, you may want to list the names of all employees. If you have any prices of standard products or ser- This story can fit 175-225 words. If your newsletter is folded and mailed, this story will appear on the back. So, it’s a good idea to make it easy to read at a glance. A question and answer ses- sion is a good way to quickly capture the attention of read- ers. You can either compile questions that you’ve re- ceived since the last edition or you can summarize some generic questions that are frequently asked about your organization. A listing of names and titles of managers in your organi- zation is a good way to give your newsletter a personal vices, you can include a list- ing of those here. You may want to refer your readers to any other forms of communi- cation that you’ve created for your organization. Back Page Story Headline Phone: 555-555-5555 Fax: 555-555-5555 E-mail: someone@example.com Your business tag line here. We’re on the Web! example.com Organization Caption describing picture or graphic.