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Money, Credit and Finance
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Part I
Post-Keynesian monetary sub-schools Post- Keynesian Monetary Economics Structuralists Horizontalists Accommodationists Circuit theory Paris and  Naples Emissions  theory Dijon Free  University of Berlin School Chartalists UKCM school
Neoclassical monetary sub-schools Neoclassical  monetary schools Monetarists IS/LM New Paradigm Keynesian (Stiglitz Greenwald) Wicksellian New Consensus
M i Horizontalists (New Consensus) Monetarists IS/LM Verticalists Structuralists (New Paradigm) M s M s M s A simplified overview of endogenous money
Endogenous money supply: A PK claim now accepted by many schools ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Main features in monetary economics Features PK school Neoclassical Money Has counterpart entries Falls from an helicopter Money is seen  As a flow and as a stock A stock Money is tied to Production Exchange The supply of money is Endogenous Exogenous Main concern with Debts, credits Assets, money Causality Reversed: credits make deposits Reserves allow deposits Credit rationing due to Lack of confidence Asymetric information
Main features, interest rates Features PK School Neoclassical Interest rates Are distribution variables Arise from market laws Liquidity preference Determines the differential relative to base rate Determines the interest rate Base rates  Are set by the central bank Are influenced by market forces The natural rate Takes multiple values or does not exist Is unique, based on thrift and productivity
Main features, macro implications Features PK School Neoclassical A restrictive monetary policy Has negative effects in short and long run Has negative effects only in the short run Schumpeter’s distinction Monetary analysis (monetized production economy) Real analysis  (money neutrality, inessential veil) Macro causality Investment determines saving Saving determines investment Inflation The growth in money stock aggregates is caused by the growth in output and prices Price inflation is  caused by an excess supply of money
Two kinds of financial systems, according to Hicks 1974 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Overdraft vs Asset-based systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Simplified neoclassical view Central bank balance sheet Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Banknotes Domestic T-bills Reserves of commercial banks
Simplified PK view Central bank balance sheet Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Banknotes Domestic T-bills Reserves of commercial banks Loans to domestic banks Government deposits (Central bank bills)
Part II PK monetary theory  in historical perspective
Cambridge proverbs  ,[object Object],[object Object]
1844 Currency school vs  Banking school ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Most of modern monetary controversies can be brought back to the Currency school and Banking school debates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An additional complexity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Keynes, a proto Monetarist?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two different viewpoints, already well identified in 1959 ,[object Object]
Back to the future? ,[object Object]
Quantity theory of money (Academics) vs  the Radcliffe Commission 1959 (Central bankers and Kaldor and Kahn) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The 1960s and 1970s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The scourge of monetarism induces  a post-Keynesian reaction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reverse causality: three groups of authors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Part III The Structuralist vs Horizontalist PK controversies
“ A storm in a tea cup” (Moore 2001) ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The horizontalist claims ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The structuralist points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The horizontalist answers I ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Horizontalist answers II ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Horizontalist answers III ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Loans Interest rate Notional demand Credit- worthy demand i 2 A N   i 1 Credit rationing when there is a reduction in bank confidence (Credit-worthy demand: demand with appropriate collateral: Cf. De Soto, and Heinsohn and Steiger) A’ 
Horizontalist answers IV ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object]
Part IV New developments in monetary policy implementation by central banks
New operationg procedures and horizontalism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The new operating procedures put in place in Canada and other such countries are fully compatible with the PK monetary theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Bank of Canada channel system Settlement balances Overnight rate 0 + (surplus) -  (overdraft) Target rate TR Bank rate = TR+25pts Rate on positive balances = TR-25pts
Two different justifications for the current interest rate procedures ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Poole 1970 Interest rate Output A IS LM MT IT LM A  = IT MT IS Investment is unstable: Use monetary targeting MT Less variability in output Demand for money is unstable: Use interest rate targeting No variability in output IT IT
The microeconomic justification for interest rate targeting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Authors who support the microeconomic explanation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bank of Sweden: overdraft system ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Fed never tried to constaint reserves ! ,[object Object]
This was understood a long time ago by some PK economists ,[object Object],[object Object]
There is no relationship between open market operations and bank reserves ,[object Object]
Cf Poole in 1982,  JMCB ,[object Object]
Why is the federal funds rate sometimes different from the target rate ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problems with no tunnel and a not so credible target: central bank needs to be very precise in its daily forecast of reserves   demand (Whitesell 2003) Reserves Expected Fed funds rate Lending rate Deposit rate Demand for reserves S S’ Target Fed rate
And it is the same for the ECB ! ,[object Object]
The case of the ECB: reserve averaging with a tunnel/corridor  Reserves Target rate Lending rate Deposit rate Demand for reserves S S’
The Cambridgian hare! ,[object Object]
Part V Open-economy monetary economics
Exogenous interest rates in open economies? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A critique of the Mundell-Fleming model in fixed exchange regime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Simplified PK view Central bank balance sheet Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Banknotes Domestic T-bills Reserves of commercial banks Loans to domestic banks Government deposits (Central bank bills)
A critique of the sophisticated neoclassical model in flexible exchange regimes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Part V The integration of PK monetary economics into PK macroeconomics
The integration of PK monetary economics into PK macroeconomics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The integration of PK monetary economics into PK models of growth and distribution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The case of the Kaleckian model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Stock-flow consistent approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Money, credit and finance

  • 2.
  • 4. Post-Keynesian monetary sub-schools Post- Keynesian Monetary Economics Structuralists Horizontalists Accommodationists Circuit theory Paris and Naples Emissions theory Dijon Free University of Berlin School Chartalists UKCM school
  • 5. Neoclassical monetary sub-schools Neoclassical monetary schools Monetarists IS/LM New Paradigm Keynesian (Stiglitz Greenwald) Wicksellian New Consensus
  • 6. M i Horizontalists (New Consensus) Monetarists IS/LM Verticalists Structuralists (New Paradigm) M s M s M s A simplified overview of endogenous money
  • 7.
  • 8. Main features in monetary economics Features PK school Neoclassical Money Has counterpart entries Falls from an helicopter Money is seen As a flow and as a stock A stock Money is tied to Production Exchange The supply of money is Endogenous Exogenous Main concern with Debts, credits Assets, money Causality Reversed: credits make deposits Reserves allow deposits Credit rationing due to Lack of confidence Asymetric information
  • 9. Main features, interest rates Features PK School Neoclassical Interest rates Are distribution variables Arise from market laws Liquidity preference Determines the differential relative to base rate Determines the interest rate Base rates Are set by the central bank Are influenced by market forces The natural rate Takes multiple values or does not exist Is unique, based on thrift and productivity
  • 10. Main features, macro implications Features PK School Neoclassical A restrictive monetary policy Has negative effects in short and long run Has negative effects only in the short run Schumpeter’s distinction Monetary analysis (monetized production economy) Real analysis (money neutrality, inessential veil) Macro causality Investment determines saving Saving determines investment Inflation The growth in money stock aggregates is caused by the growth in output and prices Price inflation is caused by an excess supply of money
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Simplified neoclassical view Central bank balance sheet Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Banknotes Domestic T-bills Reserves of commercial banks
  • 14. Simplified PK view Central bank balance sheet Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Banknotes Domestic T-bills Reserves of commercial banks Loans to domestic banks Government deposits (Central bank bills)
  • 15. Part II PK monetary theory in historical perspective
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  • 18.
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  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Part III The Structuralist vs Horizontalist PK controversies
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  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. Loans Interest rate Notional demand Credit- worthy demand i 2 A N   i 1 Credit rationing when there is a reduction in bank confidence (Credit-worthy demand: demand with appropriate collateral: Cf. De Soto, and Heinsohn and Steiger) A’ 
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. Part IV New developments in monetary policy implementation by central banks
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. The Bank of Canada channel system Settlement balances Overnight rate 0 + (surplus) - (overdraft) Target rate TR Bank rate = TR+25pts Rate on positive balances = TR-25pts
  • 41.
  • 42. Poole 1970 Interest rate Output A IS LM MT IT LM A = IT MT IS Investment is unstable: Use monetary targeting MT Less variability in output Demand for money is unstable: Use interest rate targeting No variability in output IT IT
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. Problems with no tunnel and a not so credible target: central bank needs to be very precise in its daily forecast of reserves demand (Whitesell 2003) Reserves Expected Fed funds rate Lending rate Deposit rate Demand for reserves S S’ Target Fed rate
  • 52.
  • 53. The case of the ECB: reserve averaging with a tunnel/corridor Reserves Target rate Lending rate Deposit rate Demand for reserves S S’
  • 54.
  • 55. Part V Open-economy monetary economics
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58. Simplified PK view Central bank balance sheet Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Banknotes Domestic T-bills Reserves of commercial banks Loans to domestic banks Government deposits (Central bank bills)
  • 59.
  • 60. Part V The integration of PK monetary economics into PK macroeconomics
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.