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Deficit Crisis or Job Crisis?
Obama’s Latest Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Hoped for economic result ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Focus on the Deficit
Deficit basics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Debt milestones – born into debt USA born (Jan 1, 1791) $75,463,476  Lowest ever (Jan 1, 1835) $33,733  Pre-Reagan (Oct 30, 1980) $907,701,000,000 FY 2011 (currently) $15,476,000,000,000
Pre-Reagan $1.0T Reagan $1.9T Bush II $6.1T Obama $2.4T Who holds the debt When the debt was accumulated
 
 
 
Are these debt numbers worrisome?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Pre-Reagan $1.0T Reagan $1.9T Bush II $6.1T Net debt = $8.1T Obama $2.4T
2Q 2011= 95% 2Q 2011 = 57% % of GDP
 
Interest payments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
On taxes ….briefly
 
 
 
Actual  corporate taxes  paid as % of GDP by OECD countries
Actual, total tax revenues paid as % of GDP in 33 OECD countries [2008] ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Is there a deficit crisis?
The jobs crisis
 
WSJ: Untangling the Long-Term-Unemployment Crisis
 
What are the costs of unemployment?
Okun’s Law:  1%  ↑ in UR   2% ↓ in GDP
What causes unemployment? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The unemployment rate understates the larger problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why are there jobs?  Key concept is “aggregate demand” [AD] Think of “AD” as “GDP ” This means jobs
Why recessions?  Because “leakages” occur in the spending stream If not, workers are laid off
The market solution
What if markets don’t adjust? Savings
Why recessions?  Because “leakages” occur in the spending stream Tx Government spending (G)
Short term solution if the market fails: Government “Pump priming”  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Central paradox Why has the deficit debate taken precedence in the midst of massive,  destructive unemployment?
The Austerity War ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Austerity class war rules Washington today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
They exercise power thru ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s to be done? The desperate need for deeper changes

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Job crisis

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/business/economy/in-the-real-world-will-the-jobs-plan-make-a-difference.html?scp=3&sq=september%2010,%202011&st=cse
  2. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/28/us/politics/28default.html?scp=1&sq=As 11th hour nears&st=cs
  3. http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html
  4. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/28/us/politics/28default.html?scp=1&sq=As 11th hour nears&st=cs
  5. http://nationalpriorities.org/en/resources/federal-budget-101/budget-briefs/federal-deficit-surplus-and-national-debt/
  6. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/119xx/doc11999/12-14-FederalDebt_Summary.pdf
  7. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/119xx/doc11999/12-14-FederalDebt_Summary.pdf
  8. http://www.cbpp.org/files/2-23-10tax.pdf
  9. http://www.ctj.org/pdf/taxday2011.pdf
  10. http://www.ctj.org/pdf/taxday2011.pdf
  11. http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/are-taxes-in-the-u-s-high-or-low/ By Bruce Barlett, source is OECD
  12. www.oecd.org/document/60/0,3746,en_2649_34533_1942460_1_1_1_1,00.html#A_RevenueStatistics
  13. http://www.cbpp.org/research/index.cfm?fa=topic&id=29
  14. http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/charts/view/4
  15. http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-BN793A_CAPIT_G_20111019171203.jpg
  16. http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/files/images/orig/jobs_unemployment_total%20all%20years%20swa%20live_2.png
  17. Add: Frictional (people voluntarily between jobs and looking for work); discouraged (a good category to add)
  18. Save this for the end.
  19. Save this for the end.
  20. Notes: cut backs in education, technology, infrastructure, health care, attacks on SSI, weak support for unions
  21. Specific names in The Nation article, p.1
  22. Link to