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Babasab Patil
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ALTERNATIVES TO THE F E D ? Bennett T. McCallum I must begin by saying that I have been extremely disappointed— the word "appalled" may be more accurate—by several develop- ments over the last two years involving tlie Federal Reserve. It was, I believe, appropriate that the Fed would respond widi expansionary monetary policy in the face of a major macroeconomic downtum, which it did. But it did not have to do so by means of operations tliat incorporated major excursions into credit policy, as weU as monetary policy, and thereby into the unauthorized exercise of fiscal policy. ̂ By engaging in such operations on a very large sctile, die Fed's actions are iJmost certain to have detrimental effects on tlie Fed's independ- ence—and thereby on its resulting ability to focus attention on what shotild be its principal objective, namely, price level stability. Furthermore, tlie Fed has not been moving quickly—if at all—to explain and correct this situation. AH in aU, die recent experience has had flie effect of moving the Fed away from die type of policy behavior tliat niixinstream academic analysts have been promoting over tlie past 15 years—namely, an activist but mle-based monetary stabilization policy fliat emphasizes Catojounwl, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Fall 2010). Copyright © Cato Institute. All rights reserved. Bennett T. McCiilhtin is Professor of Econotnics at Carnegie Mellon University. He thanks Marvin Coodfriend for helpful cotntnents. 'Coodfriend and McCallum (2009) distinguish between pure monetary policy (changes in base money by central bank purchase or sale of Treasury securities), pttre credit policy (changes in the cotnposition of central bank assets witli no change in base tnoney), and ititerest-on-reserves policy (with no balance sheet changes). Since the Fed returns to the Treasury the interest received on the Treasury securities that it holds, it is the case that when the Fed sells Treasuries to fund expansionary credit policy the net results are the satne as if the Treasury fttianced credit extensions by selling its securities to (i.e., borrowing from) the public. 439 CATO JOURNAL die avoidance of significant inflation while also avoiding deflation. In saying this, I do recognize that the term "inflation targeting" has been gradually corrupted so as to pemiit excessive aspects of "fine tuning" relating to output and employment levels, but by and large I believe that the academic literature has been mosdy constructive and that much ofthe commentary tending to discredit it on the basis of recent events has done so mistakenly. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates In previous writings, I have argued that monetary policy and exchange rate policy are linked togedier so intimately that diey should be considered as two sides of the same coin. From that per- spective, it seems an unfortunate anachronism that official exchange- rate responsibility is assigned to the Treasury or Finance Ministry in many economies, including the United.
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Keynes’s Analysis of Capitalist Depressions Throughout the remainder of the General Theory, Keynes consistently assumed that the rate of utilization of the productive capacity of physical capital declined sharply in times of depression, and the number of employed workers declined sharply as well. Keynes’s theory was addressed to those obvious realities of depression in an insightful and coherent manner. But because it is an equally obvious fact of capitalist depressions that the real wages of workers did not increase when employment decreased, Keynes’s adherence to the marginal productivity theory that wages were always equal to the workers’ marginal productivity contradicted the rest of his theory. As we have frequently pointed out in this book, the contradictions in a great thinker’s theory (and Keynes was a logician of the first order) give the best insights into the thinker’s ideological orientation. Keynes wished to furnish capitalist governments with theoretical insights that would help to save capitalism. In doing so, it was necessary for him to abandon some tenets of neoclassical theory. But, as we will see, he wanted to retain as much neoclassical ideology as possible. So he adhered to both the marginal productivity theory of distribution and the belief that the free market efficiently allocated resources (once full employment was attained), despite the fact that both these tenets of neoclassical ideology were logically tied to the belief that the free market automatically created a full employment, Pareto optimal situation. Even with theorists having the extraordinary logical ability of Keynes, ideology very frequently wins out over logic. Keynes rejected the notion that if a capitalist economy started from a situation of full employment, then the rate of interest would automatically equate saving and investment and thus keep aggregate demand equal to aggregate supply. His major departures from the doctrines that comprised the neoclassical theory of automaticity were twofold: First, although he accepted the neoclassical notion that saving was influenced by the rate of interest, he insisted that the level of aggregate income was a far more important influence on the amount of saving than was the rate of interest. Second, he argued that saving and investment did not determine the rate of interest. The interest rate was a price that equalized the demand and supply of money—something quite different from (although not unrelated to) investment and saving. These were very important departures indeed, because, although Keynes was unaware of it, they destroyed not only the neoclassical theory of the automaticity of the market but also the two other pillars of neoclassical ideology—the marginal productivity theory of distribution and the theory that a free, competitive market will result in a Pareto optimal allocation of resources. Keynes wanted to achieve the first result (the destruction of the belief in the automaticity of the market) but ...
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