Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets
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BSRIA's Krystyna Dawson's presentation from ASHRAE 2015.
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Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets
- 1. Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets Krystyna Dawson Heating & Renewables Manager BSRIA WMI January 2015
- 2. 2 Excellence in Market Intelligence Agenda Worlds largest traditional heating markets Growth in traditional heating, 2014 US Heating market overview Water heating markets US and Europe World renewable markets Growing importance of controls 2
- 3. 3 Excellence in Market Intelligence Radiators 23% UFH 10%WH 20% CB 5% DB 42% Radiators 0% UFH 4% WH 71% CB 3% DB/Furnaces 22% World Heating Market Value by region, 2013 • Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine ** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces. Population (million inhabitants) USA + Canada Europe Japan China 352 778 127 1,360 3 North America Total: US$ 9.323 million Europe* Total: US$ 15.644 million Radiators 1% UFH 6% WH 79% CB 2% DB 12% Japan Total: US$ 4,333 million China Total: US$ 7,258 million Radiators 16% UFH 23%WH 48% CB 4% DB 9%
- 4. 4 Excellence in Market Intelligence World boiler market overview 2013-2017 4 ‘000 units Source: BSRIA 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2013 2014 2017
- 5. 5 Excellence in Market Intelligence Gas furnaces, 89% Oil furnaces, 0% Electric furnaces, 9% US heating market overview 2013-2017 5 Share of heating technologies based on sales volumes US furnace market by type of fuel 3% 6% 9% 9% 2% 2% 84% 78% 3% 5% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2013 2017 CHP Heat Pumps Furnaces FS Commercial boilers FS Domestic heating Wall hung boilers 000 units 2013 Gas furnaces 84% Oil furnaces 1% Electric furnaces 15% 2017 WH gas boilers 26% FS gas boilers 60% FS oil boilers 14% US boiler market by type of fuel 2013 WH gas boilers 29% FS gas boilers 65% FS oil boilers 6% 2017 Heat pumps include GS dry distribution HP and hydronic HP
- 6. 6 Excellence in Market Intelligence Increasing gasification in China, Russia and S. Korea 6 Main trends in traditional Heating markets, 2013 - 2014 Importance Urgency Move towards Communal heating Growing substitution of boilers by renewables in new build Increasing penetration of wall-hung boilers Gas-fuelled boilers dominance grows Energy efficiency targets drive sales of condensing boilers and water heaters • Low oil/gas prices • Push for reduction of CO2 emissions • Energy security issues • Economics Global Drivers:
- 7. 7 Excellence in Market Intelligence World Domestic Boiler Technology overview Sales of Condensing units Sales of Non-Condensing units Thousandunits Thousandunits 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Japan China NAmerica Europe CAGR 2013-2017 8.5% CAGR 2013-2017 -7.5%
- 8. 8 Excellence in Market Intelligence Europe – Legislation impact on markets • Increase in Combined & Hybrid systems Eco Design A +++ ≥150% A ++ ≥125% A + ≥98% A ≥90% B ≥82% C ≥75% D ≥36% E ≥34% Cogeneration Gas HP Condensing boilers Non- condensing boilers Ground /Water to water HP Air to water HP From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold • Enhanced Controls Fuel cell Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015 8 • Significant shift towards condensing boilers within the next three years
- 9. 9 Excellence in Market Intelligence World Commercial Boilers Technology overview 9 000 units 000 units 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2013 2017 Commercial condensingCommercial non-condensing 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2013 2017 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2017 000 units 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2013 2017 000 units
- 10. 10 Excellence in Market Intelligence World Water Heating markets 10 Europe 11% Russia 3% North America 11% Brazil 28%India 2% China 28% Japan 4% Saudi Arabia 3% Others 10% World water heating market Volume, 2013 Includes: GSWH, GIWH, ESWH, EIWH, STWH, HPWH Total 98.6 mln units 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 Brazil China Europe North America Japan Electric storage Gas storage Electric instantaneous Gas instantaneous ST Water Heaters SHW HP Largest water heating markets by technology, 2013 000 units
- 11. 11Excellence in Market Intelligence Water Heating market – Europe Technology overview 11 European Water Heating market, by type, 2013 DHW HP sales, units, 2009 - 2018 • Electric storage dominate the market but their share will decrease. • The share of renewable WH systems is set to grow thanks to DHW HP uptake. • Condensing WH will become prevalent from 2018 due to the legislation.Source: BSRIA, based on market analysis for 19 European countries ST Water Heaters 3% DHW HP 2% Combi boilers 34% Electric storage 44% Gas storage 1% Electric instantaneous 8% Gas instantaneous 8% - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F2016F2017F2018F
- 12. 12 Excellence in Market Intelligence 12 Water Heating market US Technology overview Electric storage WH 43% Gas storage 47% Electric instantaneous 3% Gas instantaneous 5% DHWHP 1% ST 0% Combi boilers 1% US Water Heating market, by type, 2013 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F DHW HP sales, units, 2009 - 2018 • Electric storage and gas storage units dominate the market. • The share of DHW HP will grow due to the new DOE efficiency standards. • Shift to condensing units in gas water heaters due to the above legislation.
- 13. 13 Excellence in Market Intelligence World Renewable Market Value by region, 2013 * Europe HP, ST & HRV includes 13 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom,, Czech Republic, Poland. Europe CHP / FC & Gas HP includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Poland 13 Europe* Total: US$ 3,910 mln USA Total: US$ 739.6mln Japan Total: US$ 1.988 mln China Total: US$ 5,160 mln Geoth.& hydronic HP 59% ST systems 6% Gas HP 0% CHP/ Fuel Cells 10% Heat recovery 25% El. Hydronic HP 64% ST systems 2% Gas HP 0% CHP/ Fuel Cells 32% Heat recovery 2% Electric Heat Pump 51% Solar Thermal systems 21% Gas HP(1) 1% Micro- CHP/ Fuel Cells(2) 6% Heat recovery( 3) 22% El. Hydronic HP 20% ST systems 71% Gas HP 0% CHP/ Fuel Cells 8% Heat recovery 1%
- 14. 14 Excellence in Market Intelligence World hydronic Heat Pump Market by value, 2013 14 Regional market, share by valueTop 10 ranking by country, US$ mln Total market: US$ 5,303 million - 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 Finland Italy Australia Austria Switzerland Sweden France Germany China Japan 36.6% 53.8% 9.6% Europe Asia Pacific Americas
- 15. 15Excellence in Market Intelligence - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Others Finland Italy Austria Sweden Switzerland UK France Germany Heat pump market Europe Total heat pump sales per country in Europe, units, 2011 - 2017
- 16. 16 Excellence in Market Intelligence World Solar Thermal Market by value, 2013 16 Regional market, share by valueTop 10 ranking by country, US$ mln Total market: 6,024 million US$ 73% 20% 4% 2%1% Asia Pacific Europe Americas India Africa - 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0 3,000.0 3,500.0 4,000.0 Japan Mexico Italy Poland Turkey India Australia Brazil Germany China
- 17. 17 Excellence in Market Intelligence European Solar thermal markets 2012-2014 17 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2012 2013 2014 Overall Europe market value down by 13%
- 18. 18 Excellence in Market Intelligence 18 System integration in family homes in Europe Will gain importance after ErP will take effect in 2015 Will gain importance with increasing share of RES in electricity production
- 19. 19 Excellence in Market Intelligence 19 Sales of hydronic controls in Europe, 2013 European Control market outlook - 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 25,000.00 30,000.00 35,000.00 40,000.00 2013 2020 ‘000 units CAGR 7% CAGR 10% CAGR 5% TRV, 63% MRV , 37% Includes: UK, Germany, Italy, France, Poland
- 20. 20Excellence in Market Intelligence Thank you Contact: Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836 Email: krystyna.dawson@bsria.co.uk