2. What is the Future Study?
Phenomenology in the time dimension.
The power of distinguishing the Possible,
Plausible, Probable and Preferable Futures.
to harness the Anticipatory Thinking power of
human for dealing with uncertainty.
To perceive the reality and getting close enough
to truth.
Phenomenology in the time dimension.
The power of distinguishing the Possible,
Plausible, Probable and Preferable Futures.
to harness the Anticipatory Thinking power of
human for dealing with uncertainty.
To perceive the reality and getting close enough
to truth.
Do our Anticipatory Thinking power can distinguish all possible futures? How many
of them can be identified? Can we be sure about it?
Anticipatory thinking includes active attention management, focusing attention on likely
sources of critical information.
Aziz Alizadeh
3. Paradox of Uncertainty
The Paradox of Uncertainty is that it is
impossible not to choose. Even the non-
choice is a way of choosing.
Aziz Alizadeh
4. How are we going to take action in front of the
future uncertainty?
What is the main human capability for dealing
with future uncertainty?
Aziz Alizadeh
5. The Mind is an Imperfect Time Machine.
Mental Time Travel comprises the
mental reconstruction of personal
events from the past (Episodic
Memory) and the mental
construction of possible events in the
future.
Critical ingredient of mental time
travel is dissociation, or the ability to
maintain different mental states
simultaneously.
Mental Time Travel comprises the
mental reconstruction of personal
events from the past (Episodic
Memory) and the mental
construction of possible events in the
future.
Critical ingredient of mental time
travel is dissociation, or the ability to
maintain different mental states
simultaneously.
Aziz Alizadeh
6. Varieties of Anticipatory Thinking
Three common forms are pattern matching, trajectory tracking, and
conditional.
With pattern matching the circumstances of the present situation
bring out similar events and clusters of cues in the past.
Sometimes anticipatory thinking requires people to get “ahead of
the curve.” The curve is the trajectory of events, and getting ahead
of the curve means preparing yourself for how the events are
unfolding and how long it will take you to react.
The conditional form of anticipatory thinking is how we notice
connections—events whose significance is conditioned by each
other.
With pattern matching the circumstances of the present situation
bring out similar events and clusters of cues in the past.
Sometimes anticipatory thinking requires people to get “ahead of
the curve.” The curve is the trajectory of events, and getting ahead
of the curve means preparing yourself for how the events are
unfolding and how long it will take you to react.
The conditional form of anticipatory thinking is how we notice
connections—events whose significance is conditioned by each
other.
Aziz Alizadeh
7. Importance of Pattern Recognition
Humans use patterns to order the world and make sense of things in complex situations.
"To understand is to perceive patterns" - Isaiah Berlin
Aziz Alizadeh
8. What is the purpose of mental time travel or
Anticipatory thinking ?
What is the purpose of mental time travel or
Anticipatory thinking ?
Aziz Alizadeh
9. Memories of the Future
• Rehearsing and storing many images of possible future
• Increasing capacity to respond to change
Aziz Alizadeh
10. Concept of Mental Model
• Mental Models serve critical function in thinking as
they allow individuals to give meaning to, and thus
efficiently process, what otherwise would be morass
of data. But they can cause us to overlook, reject, or
forget important incoming information that is not in
accord with our assumptions and expectations.
• Mental models are resistant to change, even in the
face of changing external circumstances.
• In analyzing complex problems, individuals rely on
“what has worked before” and rarely update
frameworks (mental models) even when they can no
longer explain new data.
• Mental Models serve critical function in thinking as
they allow individuals to give meaning to, and thus
efficiently process, what otherwise would be morass
of data. But they can cause us to overlook, reject, or
forget important incoming information that is not in
accord with our assumptions and expectations.
• Mental models are resistant to change, even in the
face of changing external circumstances.
• In analyzing complex problems, individuals rely on
“what has worked before” and rarely update
frameworks (mental models) even when they can no
longer explain new data.
Aziz Alizadeh
12. Time Paths And Perceiving The Change Signals
• Human brain does not engage in
predictions; it engage in possible futures,
in terms of “if that happens then I will
take this action.” these are Time Paths
into an anticipated future.
Dr. David Ingvar
1924-2000These possible time paths are stored in human
“memory of future”
Dr. David Ingvar
1924-2000These possible time paths are stored in human
“memory of future”
If a particular information signal received
from environment is relevant to Time
Paths, data gets meaning and information
becomes knowledge, otherwise it will be
ignored.
Aziz Alizadeh
13. Future Study is somehow knowing the anatomy
of human ignorance.
Future Study is somehow knowing the anatomy
of human ignorance.
Aziz Alizadeh
14. Knowing
“Knowing” improves your ability to“Knowing” improves your ability to
develop real discernment, greaterdevelop real discernment, greater
associations, wise insightassociations, wise insight
and better decision making.and better decision making.
ScanningScanning
PatterningPatterningIntegratingIntegrating
NoticingNoticing
SensingSensing
PatterningPatterningIntegratingIntegrating
IntuitingIntuiting
ValuingValuing
JudgingJudging
Self as agentSelf as agent
of changeof change
VisualizingVisualizing
CognitiveCognitive
ProcessesProcesses
CognitiveCognitive
CapabilitiesCapabilities
Aziz Alizadeh
15. Cognitive Capabilities of
Knowing
• Noticing
– Attention and Focus
– Things and Systems
– Relationships
– Relevance
• Scanning
– Environmental “speed reading”
– Early indicators
– Filtering and amplifying
– Environmental noise
• Patterning
– Connections
– Flow and Trends
– Rhythm
– Randomness
SS
II PP
SS
NN
SensingSensing
–– External and internal sensorsExternal and internal sensors
–– Openness and receptivityOpenness and receptivity
–– ListeningListening
–– Discernment and DiscretionDiscernment and Discretion
IntegratingIntegrating
–– SensemakingSensemaking
–– NetworkingNetworking
–– Systems thinkingSystems thinking
–– Spatial abilitySpatial ability
• Noticing
– Attention and Focus
– Things and Systems
– Relationships
– Relevance
• Scanning
– Environmental “speed reading”
– Early indicators
– Filtering and amplifying
– Environmental noise
• Patterning
– Connections
– Flow and Trends
– Rhythm
– Randomness
SensingSensing
–– External and internal sensorsExternal and internal sensors
–– Openness and receptivityOpenness and receptivity
–– ListeningListening
–– Discernment and DiscretionDiscernment and Discretion
IntegratingIntegrating
–– SensemakingSensemaking
–– NetworkingNetworking
–– Systems thinkingSystems thinking
–– Spatial abilitySpatial ability
Aziz Alizadeh
16. Cognitive Processes of
Knowing
• Visualizing
– Power of thought
– Perspectives and Assumptions:
(Individual, team and
organization)
– Creating focus
– Imagining
– Visualizing success
• Intuiting
– Access to non-conscious mind
– Empathy
– Emotional Intelligence
– Trial and error
– Mindmapping
• Valuing
– Alignment to vision,
mission, goals
– Building meaning
– Ambiguity and Uncertainty
– Unknown unknowns
• Judging
– Frames of Reference
– Metaknowing
– Verication
– Heuristics
VV
VV
II
JJ
• Visualizing
– Power of thought
– Perspectives and Assumptions:
(Individual, team and
organization)
– Creating focus
– Imagining
– Visualizing success
• Intuiting
– Access to non-conscious mind
– Empathy
– Emotional Intelligence
– Trial and error
– Mindmapping
• Valuing
– Alignment to vision,
mission, goals
– Building meaning
– Ambiguity and Uncertainty
– Unknown unknowns
• Judging
– Frames of Reference
– Metaknowing
– Verication
– Heuristics
Aziz Alizadeh
17. Self as agent of change
• Know thyself
• Mental models
• Emotional Intelligence
• Learning and forgetting
• Mental defenses
• Modeling behaviors
• Knowledge sharing
• Dialogue
• Storytelling
• The Art of Persuasion
Internal:Internal: External:External:
Self as agentSelf as agent
of changeof change
• Know thyself
• Mental models
• Emotional Intelligence
• Learning and forgetting
• Mental defenses
• Modeling behaviors
• Knowledge sharing
• Dialogue
• Storytelling
• The Art of Persuasion
“Knowing” is doing.
Knowers are attentive, focused and ready to act.
Aziz Alizadeh
18. The self is a center of narrative gravity, a verbal autobiography.
Daniel C. Dennet
Aziz Alizadeh
19. The Important Role of Language
The ability to generate an infinite variety of combinations from a finite vocabulary
is what characterizes human language, and sets it apart from the communication
systems of all other species. Chomsky
Aziz Alizadeh
20. Language , Reality and Perception
Without a connection to the real world via
perception, a language system cannot know what it
is talking about.
Language plays an important role in guiding or
directing attention and in providing explanations via
analogy or via connections which are not directly
accessible to sensory perception.
Without a connection to the real world via
perception, a language system cannot know what it
is talking about.
Language plays an important role in guiding or
directing attention and in providing explanations via
analogy or via connections which are not directly
accessible to sensory perception.
Aziz Alizadeh
21. Importance of Complete Cognition in Future Study
Truth is a function of complete cognition based on holistic perception. Perception
of reality is naturally holistic.
Incomplete cognition is seeing the details but not the whole, seeing the tress but
not the forest.
Aziz Alizadeh
22. What is the Future Study then?
Future Study focus on the cognitive capabilities of observing and
perceiving a situation, the cognitive processing that must occur to
understand the external world and make maximum use of our
internal thinking capabilities, and mechanism fro creating deep
knowledge and acting on that knowledge.
Aziz Alizadeh
23. Cognition: Individual or Social Phenomena?
Cognition is a continuously evolving
process which relates present
perceptions via internal states to
potential further perceptions and
actions.
Cognition is not limited to the mind of
an individual agent, but involves
interactions with other minds.
Cognition is a continuously evolving
process which relates present
perceptions via internal states to
potential further perceptions and
actions.
Cognition is not limited to the mind of
an individual agent, but involves
interactions with other minds.
Aziz Alizadeh
24. Back to the Mental Model
Psycholinguists discovered that mental models are constructed from the meanings
of sentences, general knowledge, and knowledge of human communication.
Aziz Alizadeh
25. Extended Mind
Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mere abstract realm
of ideas, but must be part of an interaction loop, via
perception and action, with a concrete environment.
The environment supports cognition not just passively—
by merely representing itself, but actively—by registering
and storing agent activities for future use, and thus
functioning like an external memory.
The extended mind thesis could then be seen as the
interlinking of multiple brains, forming kinds of
associative engines where their environmental
interactions are iterations of series of simple pattern
completing- or pattern-creating real world actions
(computations).
Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mere abstract realm
of ideas, but must be part of an interaction loop, via
perception and action, with a concrete environment.
The environment supports cognition not just passively—
by merely representing itself, but actively—by registering
and storing agent activities for future use, and thus
functioning like an external memory.
The extended mind thesis could then be seen as the
interlinking of multiple brains, forming kinds of
associative engines where their environmental
interactions are iterations of series of simple pattern
completing- or pattern-creating real world actions
(computations).
Aziz Alizadeh
26. Distributed Cognition
Distributed cognition means using network intelligence.
Small things are more adaptable than big things. Networks adapt faster than hierarchies.
Efficient organization means that the right activities are delegated to the right agents at
the right time.
Aziz Alizadeh
27. Social Construction of Reality: Towards Collective Mind
Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mere
abstract realm of ideas, but must be part of an
interaction loop, via perception and action,
with a concrete environment.
The environment supports cognition not just
passively—by merely representing itself, but
actively—by registering and storing agent
activities for future use, and thus functioning
like an external memory.
Social Constructivism suggests that the individual construct his or her world in the
head but with categories supplied by social relationships.
Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mere
abstract realm of ideas, but must be part of an
interaction loop, via perception and action,
with a concrete environment.
The environment supports cognition not just
passively—by merely representing itself, but
actively—by registering and storing agent
activities for future use, and thus functioning
like an external memory.
Aziz Alizadeh
28. Collective Mind from a Futurist Perspective
Futurists trying to study the ability of humans and human
systems to construct reality through language and the co-
evolution of language with practice.
Futurists believe that different forms of network have
different cognitive consequences. Some network forms may
produce ignorance, tunnel vision, and normalizing, whereas
other forms may produce novel insights, original syntheses,
and unexpected diagnoses.
Futurists are being aware that self-organization potentially
produces emergent cognitive capabilities that do not exist at
the individual level.
Futurists trying to study the ability of humans and human
systems to construct reality through language and the co-
evolution of language with practice.
Futurists believe that different forms of network have
different cognitive consequences. Some network forms may
produce ignorance, tunnel vision, and normalizing, whereas
other forms may produce novel insights, original syntheses,
and unexpected diagnoses.
Futurists are being aware that self-organization potentially
produces emergent cognitive capabilities that do not exist at
the individual level.
Aziz Alizadeh
29. Conclusion
Language is constitute of reality and that social
construction in language and in everyday practices of a
particular events or category, privileges certain interests.
Modes of knowing correspond with levels of
consciousness, and since reality is a particular mode of
knowing, Reality is a level of consciousness.
knowledge, action and reality are not separate from
each other.
Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Science and
Future Study are intertwined to each other.
Language is constitute of reality and that social
construction in language and in everyday practices of a
particular events or category, privileges certain interests.
Modes of knowing correspond with levels of
consciousness, and since reality is a particular mode of
knowing, Reality is a level of consciousness.
knowledge, action and reality are not separate from
each other.
Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Science and
Future Study are intertwined to each other.
Aziz Alizadeh
