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Shifts in the Japanese Economy and the 
Potential Impact on EU Japan Investment: 
Insights from the Financial Sector 
Phil...
2 
Contents 
1. Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters 
2. Business Environment: Financial Regulations 
3. Increase in c...
3 
18,000 
16,000 
14,000 
12,000 
10,000 
8,000 
6,000 
4,000 
2,000 
0 
GDP : Top 10 countries in 2013 
USA China Japan ...
4 
Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters 
Household sector- Financial assets 
Source: BOJ, BNP Paribas 
JPY trillion 
A...
5 
Stock Exchange: Market Capitalisation (as of June 2014) 
20,000 
18,000 
16,000 
14,000 
12,000 
10,000 
8,000 
6,000 
...
6 
Stock Exchange Turnover: Value of Share Trading (YTD June 2014) 
USD mln 
8,000 
7,000 
6,000 
5,000 
4,000 
3,000 
2,0...
7 
Outstanding balance of government bonds (as of October 2014) 
14,000 
12,000 
10,000 
8,000 
6,000 
4,000 
2,000 
0 
US...
1,400 
1,200 
1,000 
800 
600 
400 
200 
0 
GPIF GPF Norway ABP 
Netherland 
National 
Pension 
South Korea 
FRT US CPE US...
9 
Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters 
Monetary base 
146 trn 
(Mar. 2013) 
202 trn 
(end 2013) 
275 trn 
(end 2014)...
10 
Business Environment: Financial Regulations 
 Considerably improved over the last few years: “Better Regulation” 
ini...
11 
Increase in cross-border flows 
Total: JPY 284 trillion 
EU 
36% 
(JPY trillion) 2013 
Oceania 
4% 
North America 
33%...
12 
Increase in cross-border flows 
0 
5 
10 
15 
20 
25 
30 
35 
40 
45 
1971/3 
1973/3 
1975/3 
1977/3 
1979/3 
1981/3 
...
13 
Increase in cross-border flows 
Source: MARR 
Target for Outbound M&A transactions 
Number of Outbound M&A transaction...
14 
Increase in cross-border flows 
Rank Announced date Target name Acquirer name 
Deal value 
(US$m) 
1 24 Sep, 2013 Toky...
15 
Increase in cross-border flows 
Further potential 
 Impact of Japanese monetary policy: growth of foreign investment ...
Shifts in the Japanese Economy and the Potential Impact on EU Japan Investment: Insights from the Financial Sector, Philip...
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Shifts in the Japanese Economy and the Potential Impact on EU Japan Investment: Insights from the Financial Sector, Philippe Avril

Philippe Avril, Vice-Chairman, International Bankers Association of Japan; Chief Country Officer, BNP Paribas Japan Group; CEO and Representative Director, BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited speaks at the Fifth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table, talks about recent shifts in the Japanese Economy, examining Japanese Financial Markets; Business Environment: Financial Regulations; Increase in cross-border flows.

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Shifts in the Japanese Economy and the Potential Impact on EU Japan Investment: Insights from the Financial Sector, Philippe Avril

  1. 1. Shifts in the Japanese Economy and the Potential Impact on EU Japan Investment: Insights from the Financial Sector Philippe Avril Vice-Chairman, International Bankers Association of Japan, Chief Country Officer, BNP Paribas Japan Group, & CEO and Representative Director, BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited Fifth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table EU Japan Economic Forum Tokyo, 14 November 2014
  2. 2. 2 Contents 1. Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters 2. Business Environment: Financial Regulations 3. Increase in cross-border flows
  3. 3. 3 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 GDP : Top 10 countries in 2013 USA China Japan GermanyFrance UK Brazil Russia Italy India USD bln Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters
  4. 4. 4 Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters Household sector- Financial assets Source: BOJ, BNP Paribas JPY trillion As of March end of each year
  5. 5. 5 Stock Exchange: Market Capitalisation (as of June 2014) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 NYSE NASDAQ Japan Exchange Group Euronext HK Exchange Shanghai SE TMX Group Deutsche Börse SIX Swiss Shenzhen SE USD bln Source: World Federation of Exchanges Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters
  6. 6. 6 Stock Exchange Turnover: Value of Share Trading (YTD June 2014) USD mln 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 NYSE NASDAQ JPX Shenzhen SE Shanghai SE Euronext Deutsche Börse HK Exchange TMX Group Korea Exchange Source: World Federation of Exchanges Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters
  7. 7. 7 Outstanding balance of government bonds (as of October 2014) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 USA Japan Italy UK France Germany USD bln Source: Bloomberg Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters
  8. 8. 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 GPIF GPF Norway ABP Netherland National Pension South Korea FRT US CPE US Canada P NSS China CPF Singapore PFZW Netherland 8 Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters USD bln Top 10 Pension Funds in the world Source: Pensions & Investments / Towers Watson 300 analysis
  9. 9. 9 Japanese Financial Markets: Size Matters Monetary base 146 trn (Mar. 2013) 202 trn (end 2013) 275 trn (end 2014) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Projection 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: BOJ, BNP Paribas JPY trillion
  10. 10. 10 Business Environment: Financial Regulations  Considerably improved over the last few years: “Better Regulation” initiative  Perceived strong commitment from Japan to global agreements and international coordination  Broad thinking alignment between European and Japanese financial regulators / European and Japanese financial institutions  Constructive dialogue between foreign financial institutions and Japanese financial regulators on continuous improvement of regulatory environment
  11. 11. 11 Increase in cross-border flows Total: JPY 284 trillion EU 36% (JPY trillion) 2013 Oceania 4% North America 33% Central and South America 19% Others 8% Investment in Foreign Bonds Source: BOJ
  12. 12. 12 Increase in cross-border flows 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1971/3 1973/3 1975/3 1977/3 1979/3 1981/3 1983/3 1985/3 1987/3 1989/3 1991/3 1993/3 1995/3 1997/3 1999/3 2001/3 2003/3 2005/3 2007/3 2009/3 2011/3 2013/3 2015/3 Foreign investors Retail (individual + trust funds) % Ownership ratio (Foreign investors and Retail) of listed stocks Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange
  13. 13. 13 Increase in cross-border flows Source: MARR Target for Outbound M&A transactions Number of Outbound M&A transactions 2011 2012 2013 96 123 83 6 55 24 56 73 15 3019 455 transactions 515 transactions 499 transactions 55 60 29 9 112 78 184 116 99 147
  14. 14. 14 Increase in cross-border flows Rank Announced date Target name Acquirer name Deal value (US$m) 1 24 Sep, 2013 Tokyo Electron Ltd Applied Materials Inc 6,986 2 2 Jul, 2013 Bank of Ayudhya PCL Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ 5,315 3 26 Sep, 2013 Grohe AG LIXIL Group Corp / Development Bank of Japan Inc. * BNPP acted as FA to LIXIL 3,959 4 11 Jun, 2013 Hitachi-Thermal Power Business Mitsubishi Heavy Industries-Thermal Power Business 3,277 5 19 Feb, 2013 Robeco Groep NV ORIX Corp 2,593 6 9 Sep, 2013 Lucozade and Ribena business (GlaxoSmithKline PLC) Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd 2,119 7 27 Sep, 2013 Panasonic Healthcare Co. Ltd. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. 1,677 8 29 Nov, 2013 Thyssenkrupp Steel USA LLC Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp / Arcelor Mittal 1,550 9 15 Oct, 2013 Supercell Oy Softbank Corp. Japan / GungHo Online Entertainment Inc. 1,530 10 26 Apr, 2013 Sumikin Bussan Corp Nippon Steel Trading Co Ltd 1,388 N.B. Japan related announced transactions, Outbound transactions in green Source: Thomson Financial, Bloomberg Stock buy-backs, Inter-group reorganization not included
  15. 15. 15 Increase in cross-border flows Further potential  Impact of Japanese monetary policy: growth of foreign investment • Financial institutions: asset diversification (e.g. GPIF) • Individual savings: escape from negative real interest rates • Direct investment by Japanese corporations: strategic imperative of foreign development  Impact of public finances • New financing methods required for public/private projects (e.g. infrastructure)  Impact of growth strategy?

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