The note explains why crimes against women are set to increase by 300 % by 2018

1. Rising Crime and the role of the Planning Commission
Ashish Puntambekar
The Nataraja Foundation, Mumbai
th
05 Jan ‘ 2013
Our extreme anger and agony over the Delhi rape case will not prevent such events in future. For
this we need to properly identify the reasons for a rise in crime ( rape included ) and implement
definite strategies in the short , medium and long term at various levels to make women feel safe in
India. But before we even begin, It is important to first understand the size of the problem.
1. Central Problem and its Magnitude
2011 census data and employment statistics appear to indicate that overall crime in India is likely to
rise by almost FIVE times by 2018 with a near 100 % probability of occurrence. In fact for
independent planners like myself who monitor all kinds of numbers, the New Delhi gang rape and
its brutality has not come as a surprise.
Population data in the table below indicate that in excess of 200 Million young people will be joining
the working age group in India by 2018. This is in addition to the 112 Million already un-employed
according to the 2011 census. This is equivalent to two thirds of entire population of Europe
entering the working age group in an environment where no new jobs are being created. Today
maybe just 10 % – 15 % of those 200 Million unemployed young people have reached the street and
we already have so much crime. Imagine what will happen when the balance 85 % + arrive. This is
not to say that a majority of unemployed young people are potential criminals, but the authentic
numbers in the table below and empirical correlations linking rising crime, especially theft to un-
employment from around the world, indeed make for a planners nightmare.
If to rising un-employment, we add a skewed sex ratio, the forecast gets ominous … India might
well be on its way to becoming the most dangerous place on earth for women. We cannot blame
the police for this, they and the Judiciary are just dealing with symptoms of bad governance.

2. 2. Need for a Systemic Response at various levels
Short Term Measures : Launch of large Employment Generation Projects
The truth is that a very large proportion of the problem of rising crime in India can be traced directly
to lack of directional inputs from the Prime Ministers office and a non serious planning commission.
The primary job of the latter is to detect trends very early and initiate timely and measured policy or
project based responses. It is therefore worrying that they did not initiate a single, sustainable, large
employment generating scheme since 2004.
Lack of strategic thinking within the planning commission and the government shows up in the
schemes that have been promoted. They started the MNREGA scheme to create rural employment
but this scheme did not create any real sustainable capacity within the Indian economy. It was an
un-imaginative scheme with a serious funds leakage issue. The most recent Aadhar scheme is
similar. It does not and cannot create any genuine productive capacity or employment within the
Economy. It is also doubtful now if it can buy votes.
Given this, the Justice JS Verma committee set up to look into possible amendments in the criminal
law to ensure speedy trial for sexual offenders looks rather narrow and relatively unimportant in its
scope. A more pressing need is to know why the government did not initiate a single genuine
employment generation project in the last 8 years when it was fully aware that close to 200 Million
young people would be joining the workforce by 2018 in addition to the 112 Million already
unemployed . If we are going to have serious un-employment and crime, we have at least got a
right to know why the government did not act.
Census data and education statistics indicate that in excess of 60 % of students drop out of school
after class V because there is a shortage of 500,000 secondary schools across India. This indicates
that approximately 60 % of the 200 Million young people who will arrive in the job market by 2018
can only be employed in the Agriculture Sector and the Construction Industry. Capacity creation
projects in these sectors (for eg. Check dams in drought hit areas ) therefore need to be cleared on
a fast track basis to generate jobs fast.
The problem is getting bigger. Every day that the government hesitates to clear projects, an
astounding 3,65,000 additional people are being rendered jobless ( UPA term ends in June 2014 ).
This asking rate is getting worse each day. There is therefore a clear need to create long term
employment for at least 100 Million people in a sustainable manner. The Healthcare sector alone
can employ over 30 Million people, but the planning commission in a decision which reflects a
serious lack of imagination has now clearly stated that it wants to reduce Govt. involvement in
healthcare.
Some may that FDI in retail is targeted at largely solving the un-employment problem. That is
simply not enough as by the Governments own admission, FDI in retail will add just 10 million new
jobs, which is nowhere close to the number required. Project initiation and clearance therefore
needs to be put on a really fast track.
Medium to Long Term Measures : Focus on Building New Secondary Education Capacity
The fundamental reason for the disintegration of value systems in Indian society and crime against
women is a rapidly failing education system and especially the collapse of secondary education.

3. The data clearly indicates the true reasons for rising un-employment and rising crime :
1. Shortage of over five Lakh secondary schools : Most children are dropping out of school after
class V, not because they want to but because there are no schools to go to.
2. Very Poor Teacher Quality : Only 46 % of teachers in India have studied beyond class XII. In
Bihar only 21 % of teachers have studied beyond class X.
Therefore if any single factor were responsible for low skill levels within the working age group
resulting in low employment and a galloping crime rate, it is the crippling shortages and teacher
quality issues we have in our secondary school system.
The Governments response in the form of the RTE Act again was a populist scheme which has not
added any sustainable productive capacity within the economy. It is, in fact, actually destroying
even the private school system by making existing private schools financially unviable. Here again
the planning commission and the ministry of HRD have seriously damaged the school system due
to a complete lack of understanding of fundamentals.
The current “ Literacy Centric “ system within the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan has lowered the status of
the teacher and therefore the worst qualified people have landed the most important jobs in the
country ( i.e Training our children ). It needs to be understood that no amount of computerization
can replace the teacher who provides us with our values. Only a good teacher and enlightened
parents can inculcate the concept of man – woman equality in a child’s mind. India led the world for
thousands of years because it had a “ Teacher Centric “ system. So, if we provide excellent
incentives for teachers, universal literacy will follow by itself.
Therefore if the Government is sincere about making India safe for women , it should initiate a large
project to build more secondary schools and provide good incentives for teachers. Building more
secondary schools will repair our rapidly disintegrating moral fabric and dramatically bring down
crime against women. Necessary financing to initiate a large secondary school capacity addition
project across 28 states and 7 Union Territories can be put in place in three months while adding 2
million new jobs. This is the kind of response we need.
The other alternative to initiating large social infrastructure projects by the Government and the
Planning Commission is to increase the size of India’s land based internal security forces by a
factor of between 3 – 5 times so that 312 Million + jobless people can be effectively controlled. As
this is clearly unviable, India needs to enter an Era of Megaprojects very quickly. We do not have
the luxury of time on our side as 2018 is just 5 years away.
Ashish Puntambekar
Project Designer
The Indian Education Megaproject … High Quality Secondary Education to 126 Million Children Totally Free of Cost
http://www.nataraja.org.in/masseducationproject.htm
The Author is a corporate planner with a fortune 500 company. He is also project designer
of the Indian Education Megaproject. Views expressed are personal.