VISION 2050

1. Vision 2050Vision 2050
byby
A.Arputha Selvaraj APMP IIM Calcutta
A.Arputha Selvaraj APMP IIM Calcutta

2. The world energy system:The world energy system:
 is beyond the environmental limitsis beyond the environmental limits
 does not provide basic energy needs as lightdoes not provide basic energy needs as light
and healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions ofand healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of
the world’s populationthe world’s population
 To avoid dangTo avoid dangeerous climate change we mustrous climate change we must
limitlimit global waglobal warrming to 1ming to 1ººC in the 21stC in the 21st
CenturyCentury
 We should provide all with basic energyWe should provide all with basic energy
needs and allow developing countries toneeds and allow developing countries to
develop, including use of cheap energydevelop, including use of cheap energy
supplysupply
Vision 2050 - BackgroundVision 2050 - Background

3.  To be sure to keep global warming below 1To be sure to keep global warming below 1ººC century, we must limitC century, we must limit
global COglobal CO22 emissionsemissions to about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century =to about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century =
35 years of current consumption35 years of current consumption (assumed climate sensitivity of 3.5(assumed climate sensitivity of 3.5ººC)C)
 The climate sensitivity isThe climate sensitivity is commocommonly acceptednly accepted to be in theto be in the range ofrange of 22 toto
55ººCC with an average of 3.5with an average of 3.5ººC.C.Environmental Limit:Environmental Limit:
Climate ChangeClimate Change

4. A Global SustainableA Global Sustainable
ScenarioScenario
CO2 (MtC)/y
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
After 2000:
240 GtC
1990-
2000:
64 GtC

5. Scenario: Energy ServicesScenario: Energy Services
Industrialisedcountries Developingcountries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Transport
El.+mechanical
Medium+hight.
Low temp.
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Energy Services
per capita

6. Energy DemandEnergy Demand
 Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced
several times before 2050: new generations of
equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology
learning can drive prices down.
 One exception is houses. In EU houses could use
only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will
require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat
consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m2
 For transport is expected increase in efficiency from
todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of “break
energy”. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions
together with electrical driven vehicles.
 Energy service demand will increase, also in
industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.

7. Primary EnergyPrimary Energy (TWh/y)(TWh/y)
Industrialised countries Developing countries
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2000 2050 2000 2050
Nuclear
Fossil
Biomass
Hydro
Solar
Wind
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

8. Energy SupplyEnergy Supply
Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20,000
MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe
less afterwards
Large wind power development programs are cost-
effective: extra costs today will be paid back with
future cost reductions due to technology learning.
Some sites give cost-effective electricity today.
Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then
grow 25% pr. year
Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in total
Biomass can be used as transport fuel
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

9. Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy
PotentialPotential0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Potential Scenario
Gigawattcontinuesconsumption
Solar centrals
PVon houses
Biomass
Hydro
Windpower on farmland
Wind, off-shore etc.
52200 GW
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

10. Electricity - WorldwideElectricity - Worldwide
(TWh/y)(TWh/y)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Nuclear
Fossil tot.
Hydro
Solar
Wind

11. Example – DenmarkExample – Denmark
Primary Energy Supply for Denmark (PJ)
Coal Oil
Gas
W
ind
Bio
Solar
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980
1990
2000
2010
2030
2050
S tatis tic s Vis io nP ro po s al
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

12. Electricity Supply -Electricity Supply -
DenmarkDenmark Fossil
Waste
Biomass
PV
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2050
Proposal (Scenario) VisionStatistic
s
Electricty Production( kWh/person pr. year)
Wind/hydro/waves

13.  The low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than theThe low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the
business-as-usual scenario with zero discountbusiness-as-usual scenario with zero discount
raterate
 It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rateIt is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate
 If environmental costs are included or if fossilIf environmental costs are included or if fossil
fuel prices increases more than estimated byfuel prices increases more than estimated by
IEA, the low-energy scenario is considerablyIEA, the low-energy scenario is considerably
cheaper than business as usual.cheaper than business as usual.
 expected lower growth in energy services: needexpected lower growth in energy services: need
for decoupling of economy and energy servicesfor decoupling of economy and energy services
Economy - DK scenarioEconomy - DK scenario
until 2030until 2030
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14. Example - SlovakiaExample - Slovakia
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Today Possible
consumption
2050
RE potential
PJ/year
Electricity
Heat
Biomass-Heat+fuel
Liquids-transport
Gas
Coal-black/brown
OBS: Preliminary data

15. Slovakian Renewable EnergySlovakian Renewable Energy
PotentialsPotentials::
Heat-fuel reneweables - 256 PJ
Energy
crops
Wood
Biogas
Straw
Solar
thermal
Geothermal
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy
Electricity - renewables
101 PJ
Hydro
Wind
PV
OBS: Preliminary data

16.  Electricity grid still needed, as todayElectricity grid still needed, as today
 Electricity grid needs more regulation with manyElectricity grid needs more regulation with many
decentralised production units ”intelligent grid”decentralised production units ”intelligent grid”
 Need for electricity storage to compensate wind &Need for electricity storage to compensate wind &
PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in DenmarkPV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark
probably chemical storage after 2030probably chemical storage after 2030
 New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps,New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps,
international energy tradeinternational energy trade
 Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlierNuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier
 Because of large learning rates for the newBecause of large learning rates for the new
technologies, minimal costs.technologies, minimal costs.Energy InfrastructureEnergy Infrastructure
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

17.  decentralised power production, to use localdecentralised power production, to use local
renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)
 more investments in demand-side efficiency, lessmore investments in demand-side efficiency, less
in energy supply, after transition phase 2000-in energy supply, after transition phase 2000-
20302030
 gas demand stable until 2025, then declinegas demand stable until 2025, then decline
 hydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and tohydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and to
replace gas where local renewables insufficientreplace gas where local renewables insufficient
 some gas networks can be used for hydrogensome gas networks can be used for hydrogen
 heat networks to remain in densely built areasheat networks to remain in densely built areas
More on InfrastructureMore on Infrastructure
INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

18.  Based on energy balanceBased on energy balance
 Trends forTrends for
RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuelsRE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels
 1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval
20022002
 Denmark, Slovakia and EUDenmark, Slovakia and EU
20032003
 Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)
Vision 2050Vision 2050
simple spread-sheetsimple spread-sheet
modelmodel

19. TABLE 1 Fuel
Year 2000
Oil products Coal &
Coke
Natural
gas 1)
PJ Crude oil
Orimul-
sion
Petro-
coke
Fueloil+
waste oil
Diesel+
heating
oil
Petrol+
kerosene Jet fuel LPG
Refinary
gas
Other oil
products
Primary Production 764,53 310,30
Klimakorrektion (forbrug) 0,86 0,57 5,15 0,01 0,08 0,05 3,53 6,59
Refineries (conversion to end products) - 346,27 69,78 139,19 99,76 21,59 8,06 15,56 0,25
Import / export (incl. bunkring and international flights) - 416,62 33,54 5,67 - 61,31 9,26 - 14,89 - 18,56 - 4,66 23,35 158,43 - 120,68
Net storage, reuse and statistical difference - 1,64 0,61 1,12 11,05 1,97 2,97 0,06 0,10 - 1,50 7,49 - 3,11
Total Net supply - 0,00 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,57 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10
Oil, coal and gas sector
Exploitation own consumption, flaring 25,03
Refinaries own consumption 1,27 13,63 10,07
Electricity and District heating stations 1,60 1,09 0,04 2,83
District heating sector Geothermal stations
Condensing power stations 0,33 0,05 20,30 0,01
Cogeneration stations 35,01 4,55 0,31 1,98 136,67 90,89
RE (solar, wind, hydro, wave, tidal)
Hydrogen
Grid losses etc. 0,15
Final Energy consumption Non-energy purposes 12,03
Transport Road 68,66 86,08 0,53
Rail 3,08 0,01
Domestic aviation 0,05 1,94
Navigation 1,51 3,37 0,00
Defense 0,37 0,00 1,16
Production Farming etc. 0,01 2,03 24,62 0,14 0,23 1,23 3,81
Manufacturing 6,76 8,34 8,95 0,10 1,83 11,16 33,46
Construction 0,04 6,39 0,03 0,17 0,21
Service sector Private 0,01 0,26 3,38 0,02 0,06 4,29
Public 0,01 0,12 2,00 0,01 0,06 2,09
Housheholds 0,01 0,04 33,29 1,40 0,70 0,05 30,33
Final Energy consumption - total, ex. non-energy 6,79 12,34 154,10 87,85 3,09 3,58 12,43 74,19
Total Consumption 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,56 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10
Specific CO2-emissions (ton CO2/PJ) 2), 3), 4), 5)
80.000 92.000 78.000 74.000 73.000 73.000 65.000 56.900 95.000 56.900
CO2-emissions (million ton CO2) 2,80 0,62 1,57 11,51 6,41 0,23 0,23 0,89 16,10 10,99
TABLE 4
Consumptions parameters
Net Heat
consump Heat. Eff.
Fin. heat
consump
Share
oil
Share
gas, coal,
waste
Share
RE7)
Share
electricity
Share
district h.
Share
total
mill. m2 Factor MJ/m2 Factor PJ % PJ % % % % % %
Private service 49,9 100 0,49 100 24,4 83% 29,3 13% 20% 2% 3% 63% 100%
Public service 38,9 100 0,36 100 14,0 90% 15,6 14% 13% 4% 2% 66% 100%
Households 1 (multifamily) 77,4 100 0,50 100 39,0 93% 42,1 6% 11% 0% 2% 80% 100%
Households 2 (detached) 165,0 100 0,56 100 93,2 80% 116,3 28% 22% 17% 6% 27% 100%
Farming, etc.8)
100 100 37,5 72% 13% 9% 6% 100%
Manufacturing8)
100 100 82,3 32% 54% 6% 8% 100%
Construction 8)
100 100 6,85 97% 3% 100%
Total 330,0
Heated floorspace6)
/ Production
Specific
consumption

20. {{Email me :Email me :
arputhaselvaraj@gmail.comarputhaselvaraj@gmail.com
Thank youThank you