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Covariance & Correlation

Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

1
Covariance – Cov(X,Y)
Covariance between X and Y is a measure
of the association between two random
variables, X & Y
If positive, then both move up or down
together
If negative, then if X is high, Y is low, vice
versa

[

σ XY = Cov( X , Y ) = E ( X − µ X )( Y − µY )

]
Correlation Between X and Y
Covariance is dependent upon the units of
X & Y [Cov(aX,bY)=abCov(X,Y)]
Correlation, Corr(X,Y), scales covariance
by the standard deviations of X & Y so that
it lies between 1 & –1

ρ XY

σ XY
Cov ( X , Y )
=
=
1
σ X σ Y [Var ( X )Var (Y )] 2
More Correlation & Covariance
If σX,Y =0 (or equivalently ρX,Y =0) then X
and Y are linearly unrelated
If ρX,Y = 1 then X and Y are said to be
perfectly positively correlated
If ρX,Y = – 1 then X and Y are said to be
perfectly negatively correlated
Corr(aX,bY) = Corr(X,Y) if ab>0
Corr(aX,bY) = –Corr(X,Y) if ab<0
Properties of Expectations
E(a)=a, Var(a)=0
E(µX)=µX, i.e. E(E(X))=E(X)
E(aX+b)=aE(X)+b
E(X+Y)=E(X)+E(Y)
E(X-Y)=E(X)-E(Y)
E(X- µX)=0 or E(X-E(X))=0
E((aX)2)=a2E(X2)
More Properties
Var(X) = E(X2) – µx2
Var(aX+b) = a2Var(X)
Var(X+Y) = Var(X) +Var(Y) +2Cov(X,Y)
Var(X-Y) = Var(X) +Var(Y) - 2Cov(X,Y)
Cov(X,Y) = E(XY)-µxµy
If (and only if) X,Y independent, then


Var(X+Y)=Var(X)+Var(Y), E(XY)=E(X)E(Y)
Covariance of X and Y
Let X and Y be random variables with joint mass function
p(x,y) if X & Y are discrete random variables or with joint
probability density function f(x, y) if X & Y are continuous
random variables. The covariance of X and Y is

σ XY = E [ ( X − µ X )( Y − µ Y ) ] = ∑ ∑ ( x − µ x ) ( y − µ y ) p( x, y )
x

y

if X and Y are discrete, and

σ XY = E [ ( X − µ X )( Y − µ Y ) ] =

∞ ∞

∫ ∫ ( x − µ ) ( y − µ ) f ( x, y ) dxdy
x

− ∞− ∞

if X and Y are continuous.
Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

7

y
Covariance of X and Y

The covariance of two random variables X and Y with means
µX and µY , respectively is given by

σ XY = E ( XY ) − µ X µ Y

Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

8
Correlation Coefficient
Let X and Y be random variables with covariance σXY and
standard deviation σX and σY , respectively. The correlation
coefficient of X and Y is

ρ XY

σ XY
=
σ Xσ Y

Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

9
Theorem
If X and Y are random variables with joint probability
distribution f(x, y), then

σ

2
aX + bY

= a σ + b σ + 2abσ XY
2

2
X

Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

10

2

2
Y
Theorem

If X and Y are independent random variables, then

σ

2
aX + bY

= a σ +b σ
2

2
X

Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

11

2

2
Y
Correlation Analysis
A statistical analysis used to obtain a quantitative measure of
the strength of the linear relationship between a dependent
variable and one or more independent variables

Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

12
Correlation – Scatter Diagram
Visual Relationship Between X and Y

Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D.

13

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probability :- Covariance and correlation Faisalkhan2081@yahoo.com

  • 1. Covariance & Correlation Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 1
  • 2. Covariance – Cov(X,Y) Covariance between X and Y is a measure of the association between two random variables, X & Y If positive, then both move up or down together If negative, then if X is high, Y is low, vice versa [ σ XY = Cov( X , Y ) = E ( X − µ X )( Y − µY ) ]
  • 3. Correlation Between X and Y Covariance is dependent upon the units of X & Y [Cov(aX,bY)=abCov(X,Y)] Correlation, Corr(X,Y), scales covariance by the standard deviations of X & Y so that it lies between 1 & –1 ρ XY σ XY Cov ( X , Y ) = = 1 σ X σ Y [Var ( X )Var (Y )] 2
  • 4. More Correlation & Covariance If σX,Y =0 (or equivalently ρX,Y =0) then X and Y are linearly unrelated If ρX,Y = 1 then X and Y are said to be perfectly positively correlated If ρX,Y = – 1 then X and Y are said to be perfectly negatively correlated Corr(aX,bY) = Corr(X,Y) if ab>0 Corr(aX,bY) = –Corr(X,Y) if ab<0
  • 5. Properties of Expectations E(a)=a, Var(a)=0 E(µX)=µX, i.e. E(E(X))=E(X) E(aX+b)=aE(X)+b E(X+Y)=E(X)+E(Y) E(X-Y)=E(X)-E(Y) E(X- µX)=0 or E(X-E(X))=0 E((aX)2)=a2E(X2)
  • 6. More Properties Var(X) = E(X2) – µx2 Var(aX+b) = a2Var(X) Var(X+Y) = Var(X) +Var(Y) +2Cov(X,Y) Var(X-Y) = Var(X) +Var(Y) - 2Cov(X,Y) Cov(X,Y) = E(XY)-µxµy If (and only if) X,Y independent, then  Var(X+Y)=Var(X)+Var(Y), E(XY)=E(X)E(Y)
  • 7. Covariance of X and Y Let X and Y be random variables with joint mass function p(x,y) if X & Y are discrete random variables or with joint probability density function f(x, y) if X & Y are continuous random variables. The covariance of X and Y is σ XY = E [ ( X − µ X )( Y − µ Y ) ] = ∑ ∑ ( x − µ x ) ( y − µ y ) p( x, y ) x y if X and Y are discrete, and σ XY = E [ ( X − µ X )( Y − µ Y ) ] = ∞ ∞ ∫ ∫ ( x − µ ) ( y − µ ) f ( x, y ) dxdy x − ∞− ∞ if X and Y are continuous. Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 7 y
  • 8. Covariance of X and Y The covariance of two random variables X and Y with means µX and µY , respectively is given by σ XY = E ( XY ) − µ X µ Y Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 8
  • 9. Correlation Coefficient Let X and Y be random variables with covariance σXY and standard deviation σX and σY , respectively. The correlation coefficient of X and Y is ρ XY σ XY = σ Xσ Y Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 9
  • 10. Theorem If X and Y are random variables with joint probability distribution f(x, y), then σ 2 aX + bY = a σ + b σ + 2abσ XY 2 2 X Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 10 2 2 Y
  • 11. Theorem If X and Y are independent random variables, then σ 2 aX + bY = a σ +b σ 2 2 X Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 11 2 2 Y
  • 12. Correlation Analysis A statistical analysis used to obtain a quantitative measure of the strength of the linear relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 12
  • 13. Correlation – Scatter Diagram Visual Relationship Between X and Y Jerrell T.Stracener – Ph.D. 13