On October 1st, Dr. Dianne Saxe, Environmental Commissioner of Ontario was the Keynote speaker at CleanTech North, discussing Ontario's progress and calls to action to helping maintain and continue that progress. #ONClimateAction

1. 1
Climate Action
in Ontario:
Opportunities for
Cleantech
Cleantech North
Dianne Saxe
Environmental Commissioner of Ontario
October 1, 2018
#ONClimateAction

2. 2
Overview
• The ECO and EBR
• Most Recent Report: Climate Action in Ontario: What’s Next?

3. 3
Who is the ECO?
• Impartial, independent officer of Ontario
legislature
• Guardian of the Environmental Bill of Rights
• Watchdog on:
• Greenhouse gas emissions in Ontario
• Energy conservation
• Environmental protection
• It’s my job to report the facts without fear or favour.

4. 4
EBR support, including Alerts

5. 5
Annual Reports
ENERGY CONSERVATION CLIMATEENVIRONMENT

6. 6
Climate Action in Ontario: What’s Next?
Ontario (again) needs a climate
policy
Commitment and credibility
Reducing Emissions
Getting Ready for What’s Coming
Recommendations

7. 7
A
B
C
D
E
Appendices
Policy tools to fight climate change
Revenue for cap and trade: what was
it used for?
Adaptation efforts in Ontario
Precipitation trends in Ontario
Minimum Cost Strategies for GHG
Mitigation for Ontario to 2030, and to 2050

8. 8
1 Ontario (again) needs
a climate policy
1.1 Why climate disruption matters in Ontario
1.2 Ontario’s greenhouse gas emissions were dropping
1.3 How Ontario brought emissions down
1.4 2018: A wrenching halt
1.5 Ontario needs climate action
1.6 Why not leave climate action to the federal government?
Clean water,
air and land
Climate disruption
already affects Ontario,
and will get worse.

9. 1
9
Climate change is here.
It affects us now.

10. 1
10
Ontario warming faster than global average
• 1.5oC warmer since 1948
• Expect a further 2.5 to 3.7oC
increase by 2050
• Frost-free season increasing by
1-13 days each decade
• Differs by region
• Latitude, topography, water…
Source: LAMPS Climate Change Group, Ontario Frost Free Season Changes Analysis.

11. 1
11
“Global Warming”?
• ≠ Everywhere always warmer
• Higher average temperatures
• But unevenly distributed
• Disruption of natural cycles
• More damaging, more unpleasant extremes
• Extreme weather didn’t start with climate
change, but climate change did load the dice
TOO HOT!
TOO COLD!

12. 1
12
Extreme events already tripled
Source: Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Executive Summary

13. 1
13
2016 drought
Conditions as of July 31, 2016
Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

14. 1
14
2017 floods
Photo credit: Associated Press
Photo credit: Viv Lynch. Used under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Photo credit: The Canadian Press

15. 1
15
2018 Forest Fires
e.g., Parry Sound 33
• started on July 18
• burned more than 100 square
kilometres (11,185 hectares) as of
August 3, 2018
Photo credit: Ryan ForbesPhoto credit: OPP North East

16. 1
16
e.g., Eastern Ottawa
September 21, 2018
• six tornadoes (EF-3, EF-2
and EF-1) with gusts of up
to 265 kilometres per hour
2018 Tornadoes
Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/environment-canada-6-tornadoes-hit-ottawa-area-last-friday-1.4108217
Photo credit: Ottawa Paramedics

17. 1
17
Health
• Infectious diseases
• Lyme disease
• Extreme weather events
• Extreme heat
• Poor air quality
• Fossil fueled vehicles
• Water stress

18. 1
18
Health – Lyme Disease

19. 1
19
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
$Billions(CAD)
Insurance Losses in Ontario due to Catastrophic Events
Loss trendline
Insured Losses (plus uninsured)
Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada
2013
Toronto
floods

20. 1
20
Up to 10% of Canadian properties
may soon be too high risk for private
sector flood insurance, if no protective
measures are taken.

21. 1
21
Ontario was generally on the right track
How were our
emissions in 2016?
The lowest since 1990.

22. 1
22
Ontario is the second largest GHG-emitting
province in Canada
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada

23. 1
23
GHG emissions dropped to lowest level while
population and GDP grew
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Relativeto1990
Year
GDP
Population
GHG Emissions
GHG
Emissions/Capita
GHG Emissions/GDP
Source: Statistics Canada

24. 1
24
Ontario’s GHGs mostly from energy, esp.
transportation
0
20
40
60
GHGEmissions(MtCO2e)
Other
Energy
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada

25. 1
25
More of Ontario’s GHGs are directly from
individuals than from heavy industry
-
20
40
60
Individuals
GHGemissions(MtCO2e)
Residential
homes
Cars, Light
Trucks and
Motorcycles
Heavy industry
Smelting and refining
non-ferrous metals
Lime and gypsum
Mining
Pulp and paper
Cement
Chemicals and fertilizers
Oil and gas
Iron and steel
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada

26. 1
26
Transportation, building emissions growing
-120%
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
GHGemissions
changesince1990
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada,

27. 1
27
Big win: taking coal out of electricity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Relativeto1990
Electricity
Non-Electricity
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada

28. 1
28
What else helped?
• Improvements by industry
• Codes and standards
• Energy conservation programs
• Green Energy Act
• Better rules on land use
• International leadership
• Climate law / Cap and Trade (?)

29. 1
29
2 Carbon Pricing
Revenues
3
Low-Carbon Ontario
1Cap & Trade
CAP
High-Carbon Ontario
Energy Efficiency
Improvements
4
Cap and Trade was starting to work

30. 1
30
19,000 social housing units
received energy efficiency
upgrades
Energy retrofits at 98 hospitals,
621 schools, 48 universities
and colleges
129 municipalities received
funds for transit, waste, energy
efficiency and cycling
infrastructure
$4 invested by industry for
every $1 in Cap & Trade funding
Raised billions for low-carbon initiatives
across Ontario
• Cap & Trade raised $2.9B
since January 2017
• $1.9B was spent on programs
to reduce GHG emissions
• 74%  public services
(hospitals, schools, social
housing and municipalities)

31. 1
31
Reduced
Reliance
on Fossil
Fuels
Government
•More money
available for key
services
•Shows leadership
Economic
Growth
•Increased
employment, asset
values, prosperity
Lower
Energy Bills
•Reduced fuel
poverty
•Increased
disposable income
Competitive
Businesses
•Lower overhead
costs
•Attracts
investment in clean
energy and
cleantech
Energy
Resilience
•Less vulnerability
to volatile fossil fuel
prices
Environmental
Sustainability
•GHG reductions
•Better resource
management
Human
Health
•Improved air quality
•Fewer hospital
visits
•Fewer sick days
Major
co-benefits
of reducing
reliance on
fossil fuels
Source: ECO

32. 1
32
Increased energy efficiency in Ontario
could mean a net increase of:
• 52,800 jobs/year
• $12.5 billion/year (GDP)
*impacts by 2030, based on adoption of complementary measures in Pan-Canadian Framework

33. 1
33
Ontario’s cleantech sector was the fastest
growing in Canada
• generates $19.8 billion in annual revenue
• international buyers bought $1 billion in cleantech from Ontario
annually
• 5,000 companies, employs 130,000 people.
Ontario’s cleantech sector
presents a real opportunity for
economic growth and job creation.

34. 1
34
But now: A wrenching halt
• Reg. 386/18 bans the emission
allowance market
• Bill 4, Cap and Trade Cancellation Act
• Climate program funding cancelled/
clawed back
• Hundreds of taxpayer-funded public
services left stranded
• Most losses uncompensated
No climate policy, no emissions
targets, no money for solutions.
Climate polluters pollute for free.
No consequences for non-
compliance.
Where are we now?

35. 1
35
Rewarding laggards and punishing the rest
• Bill 4 retroactively eliminates
emission reduction obligations
for Ontario polluters
Who lost
• bought allowances and offsets to match
their emissions
• invested in GHG reduction projects
• planned to sell some allowances to pay
for low-carbon investments
• bought 2021 vintage allowances
• market participants who held Ontario
allowances
• California and Quebec, two of Ontario’s
largest trading partners, who now have
13.2 million excess allowances from
Ontario
Who won
• Those who did not buy or keep enough
allowances and offsets to match their
GHG emissions

36. 1
36
Tearing up clean energy contracts
“The sanctity of contracts is fundamental. The
government unilaterally cancelling contracts
is
harmful to business investment in Ontario.”
• Ashley Challinor – Director of Policy, Ontario Chamber of
Commerce
• Adverse effects on investors, public sector,
First Nations, Long-Term Energy Plan
752 cancelled renewable energy projects
Source: University of Guelph

37. 1
37
What about the federal carbon tax?
• A price on carbon is important,
but:
• Cap and Trade was better for
Ontario than the federal carbon tax
backstop
• Federal policies will not meet
Canada’s Paris Agreement
commitments – which are too weak
• A made-in-Ontario climate
framework could get better
The federal backstop is a good
start.
But Ontario needs a climate law of
its own to get the best results for
the
province.

38. 2
38
Sustaining climate policy
over time
To attract investment and talent,
and to give policies time to work.
Why does Ontario need stable
climate change policies?

39. 2
39
U.K. Climate Change Act:
the most promising example
Political Stability
Electoral
Accountability
Expert
Credibility
Investor
Confidence

40. 2
40
U.K. carbon budgets:
legally binding pathway to long-term targets
0
200
400
600
800
2008
Emissions
2008-2012
Avg. Allowed
Emissions (1st
Budget)
2013-2017
Avg. Allowed
Emissions
(2nd Budget)
2018-2022
Avg. Allowed
Emissions
(3rd Budget)
2023-2027
Avg. Allowed
Emissions
(4th Budget)
2028-2032
Avg. Allowed
Emissions
(5th Budget)
2050
Target
GHGEmissions
(MtCO2e)
Source: Committee on Climate Change, Carbon budgets: how we monitor emissions targets (2018).

41. 2
41
Ontario should adopt the U.K. model
United Kingdom
Climate Change Act
Bill 4, Proposed Cap
and
Trade Cancellation Act
Created with public consultation Yes Unknown
Created with cross-party support Yes No
Legally binding emission targets Yes No
Legally binding carbon budgets in line with electoral cycle Yes No
Legally required policy plan to meet carbon budgets/emission
targets
Yes No
Legally required independent, expert modelling of low-cost
pathways
Yes No
Legally required third party emissions reporting Yes No

42. 2
42
Environmental Bill of Rights
Government Ministry
Post “decision notice” and explain effect of public participation.
Government Ministry
Review all comments received before making a decision.
Public
Provide written comments within 30 days.
Public
Review registry notice.
Government Ministry
Post notice to Environmental Registry.
What do you
think?
www.EBR.gov.on
.ca

43. 43
3
Reducing emissions
3.1 The least-cost pathway
3.2 The three-legged stool
3.3 Making polluters pay
3.4 Finding ways to pay for solutions
3.5 Regulating climate polluters
3.6 Applying the three-legged stool: freight
Yes, with better
government policies.
Can Ontario meet strong climate
targets, with existing technology?

44. 3
44
Least-cost pathway starts with conservation,
electrification
-
50
100
150
200
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GHGemissions(MtCO2e)
Energy supply
Electricity supply
Transportation
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Agriculture
Baseline
Reference emissions
Emissions target
Emission reductions:
Source: Minimum Cost Strategies for GHG Mitigation for Ontario to 2030, and to 2050, SCMS Global and SMIA Energy Super Modelers and International Analysts

45. 3
45
Least-cost pathway needs 50% more clean
electricity than Ontario's Long-Term Energy Plan
0
50
100
150
200
250
Supply
(Long-term Energy Plan)
Demand
(NATEM)
2030OntarioElectricity(TWh)
Additional Electricity Needed
Planned Electricity
Source: Ontario Ministry of Energy

46. 46
3 How can we get there?
Making
polluters pay Investing in
solutions
Regulating
polluters
Making polluters pay,
investing in solutions and
regulating polluters.
What are they key
policy options?

47. 3
47
Making polluters pay can lead to innovation,
creativity, and jobs
Companies take
initiative to reduce
costs
Innovate for new
ways to reduce
pollution
Make continuous
improvement
efforts
Reduce pollution,
resulting in annual
cost savings
Hire new
jobs to
design and
implement
solutions
Government
puts a price on
carbon Polluter-pay programs
are fair and they work.

48. 3
48
Finding ways to pay for solutions
• Ontario just gave up $2 billion
per year for climate solutions
• What other options are
available to fund the low-
carbon investments Ontario
needs?
Without a carbon price,
where can the money come
from?
Good policies can unlock some
public and private funds.

49. 3
49
Low-carbon government procurement
• Government is largest single buyer in
Ontario economy
• Low-carbon procurement could have
multiple benefits:
 Reduce energy and operating costs
 Improve public health
 Support Ontario’s cleantech sector
 Lead by example
Photo credits: Andrew Snook, Rock to Road
Magazine;
Queen’s Printer for Ontario; University of Waterloo

50. 50
3 Phase out fossil fuel subsidies
• Tax breaks for fossil fuel use
= $625 million/year subsidy
• These distort the market and
reduce available funding for
clean energy
• Ontario should commit to
phasing out fossil fuel
subsidies, and invest
revenues in low-carbon
solutions
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance, Ontario
Ministry of the Environment, Conservation
and Parks, Union Gas, Ontario Solar
Installers

51. 51
3 What about private investment?
• Global clean energy
investments up 500% since
2004
• Huge economic opportunity –
but most private capital still in
high-carbon economy
• Investors face barriers to low-
carbon investment
“It is critically important that the
regulatory framework be
independent and stable. You can’t
invest $2-3 billion into a country
only to find that every four years
the rules have changed.”
Ron Mock, President & CEO of Ontario Teachers’ Pension
Plan

52. 3
52
Regulating climate polluters
Without polluter pay, what
will drive emissions down?
Regulations will have to do
most of the heavy lifting.

53. 53
3 Freight: How could the 3 legged stool help?
• feebate to encourage
purchase of new low emission
vehicles
• pollution limits and cash to
get old vehicles off the road
• road pricing to discourage
distance/encourage efficiency
Fee
• Discourages
sale of high
emission
vehicles
• Not a tax
Rebate
• Encourages
sale of low
emission
vehicles
• Offsets the
higher upfront
vehicle price

54. 54
4 Getting ready for
what’s coming
4.1 Introduction to adaptation
4.2 Why do we need to adapt?
4.3 What does adaptation look like?
4.4 Pay now or pay more later
4.4.1 But who will pay?
Lots, and the province
must lead the way
What can we do to prepare
for climate disruption
4.5 Is Ontario getting ready?
4.6 Vulnerabilities, data and
incentives
4.7 Ontario needs strong leadership
on
adaptation, now
4.8 Recommendations

55. 4
55
We need to get ready for what’s coming
Mitigation
•efforts to curb climate
change by reducing
emissions of GHGs
that cause the Earth’s
temperature to rise.
Adaptation
•efforts to cope with and
adjust to the impacts
that have already
occurred and will occur
in the future as a result
of climate change.

56. 4
56
Pay less now or pay more later
• The costs of climate change could be enormous
• Much cheaper to prepare in advance, save natural
buffers
• a stitch in time saves nine
• We need to know where we are vulnerable
• Who will pay?

57. 57
4 Ontario needs to:
• identify and prioritize the
province’s vulnerabilities to
climate change and priorities for
action
• provide consistent and accessible
data and information on the future
climate, and
• incent Ontarians to increase their
own resilience to what’s ahead.

58. 58
5
Key recommendations
Here’s how to start
How can Ontario rebuild its
climate policy?

59. 5
59
A framework for
Ontario
1. A climate law that sets long-term,
science-based, mandatory climate
budgets.
2. A transparent, achievable, cost-
effective pathway to each carbon
budget.
3. Effective policy tools to achieve the
necessary emission reductions;
take advantage of work already
done.
4. Monitor and report progress to the
public, with third-party validation,
and revise plan and actions as
needed.
Commit:
targets and law
Plan a
pathway
Take action
Check and
improve
Listen:
Ontarians deserve
real consultation
at every key step
of Ontario’s
climate policy, in
compliance with
the Environmental
Bill of Rights.
This includes an
open and honest
conversation
about what climate
disruption will cost
and who will pay
for it (Part 4).

60. 60
What can we do?
• Climate cannot be left entirely up to government
Reduce your carbon footprint
Get ready to adapt
Speak up

61. 61
Right now
• Bill 4, which repeals Cap and Trade, is open for
comment until October 11, 2018.
• Bill 34, which repeals the Green Energy Act, is open for
comment until October 21, 2018
What do you
think?
www.EBR.gov.on.
ca

62. 62
Bill 4 on Environmental Registry
Now is the perfect opportunity
for Ontarians to comment on
how to improve climate law and
policy in the province
Submit your comments here:
ero.ontario.ca/notice/013-
3738

63. commissioner@eco.on.ca
@Ont_ECO
/OntarioEnvironmentalCommissi
oner
eco.on.ca
#ONClimateAction
Questions?