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2QCY2010 Result Update | Oil & Gas
                                                                                                                               July 23, 2010



 Gujarat Gas                                                                                    NEUTRAL
                                                                                                CMP                                   Rs306
 Performance Highlights                                                                         Target Price                              -
 Y/E December (Rs cr)      2QCY10        1QCY10 % chg (qoq)          2QCY09     % chg (yoy)     Investment Period                           -
 Net Operating Income           419           410             2.1       339           23.4
 EBITDA                            93         103            (8.9)        76          23.4     Stock Info
 EBITDA Margin (%)              22.3         25.0            (2.7)      22.3          (0.0)    Sector                             Oil & Gas
 Adj. PAT                          58             62         (6.7)        47          21.5     Market Cap (Rs cr)                       3,500
 Source: Company, Angel Research                                                               Beta                                       0.5
                                                                                               52 Week High / Low                     319/152
 Gujarat Gas’s (GGAS) 2QCY2010 numbers were marginally lower than our
 expectation on the bottom-line front, which increased 21.5% yoy to Rs58cr                     Avg. Daily Volume                       37015
 (Rs47cr) as against our expectation of Rs63cr. Gross gas spread fell to Rs4.0/scm             Face Value (Rs)                            10
 from the all-time high of Rs4.3/scm registered in 1QCY2010. At Rs306, the stock               BSE Sensex                              18,131
 is trading at fair valuations of 18.0x CY2010E and 14.9x CY2011E earnings.
 Hence, we maintain a Neutral on the stock.                                                    Nifty                                    5,449
                                                                                               Reuters Code                      GGAS.BO
 Gross gas spread normalises on higher gas cost: For 2QCY2010, GGAS
                                                                                               Bloomberg Code                    GGAS@IN
 reported top-line growth of 23.4% yoy to Rs419cr (Rs339cr) as against our
 expectation of Rs417cr. Average realisations increased to Rs13.8/scm
 (Rs13.3/scm) as against our expectation of Rs13.9/scm. OPM came in flat at
 22.3% yoy as even the gross gas spread stood flat at Rs4.0/scm. Spreads were                  Shareholding Pattern (%)
 flat despite the price hikes undertaken over the last one year as the gas cost was            Promoters                                 65.1
 also higher (increase in APM gas price and higher cost of LNG), despite the                   MF / Banks / Indian Fls                   10.0
 marginal 0.7% rupee appreciation.
                                                                                               FII / NRIs / OCBs                         15.3
 Outlook and Valuation: GGAS volumes were supported by higher gas flow from                    Indian Public / Others                     9.6
 indigenous sources (additional PMT and Cairn volumes) and RLNG volume
 (around 12% of total gas sourced), as in 1QCY2010. We expect RLNG prices to
 remain subdued owing to which in the ensuing quarters, we expect RLNG volume
                                                                                               Abs. (%)                  3m     1yr       3yr
 flow to be robust. Increase in domestic volumes (gas flow from KG-D6) and RLNG
 volumes would be the future growth drivers for the company and soften supply-                 Sensex                   2.5     19      15.2
 side constraints. With incremental volumes likely to flow to the high-margin                  GGAS                     8.3    96.7     112.7
 industrial retail segment, the company would register expansion in margins going
 ahead. We value the company at Rs306, which translates into 15x CY2011E EPS
 of Rs20.4. We maintain a Neutral on the stock.


 Key Financials (Consolidated)
  Y/E December (Rs cr)              CY2008             CY2009E       CY2010E       CY2011E
  Net Sales                             1,301.3         1,419.7       1,664.7       2,042.3
  % chg                                     4.5             9.1          17.3          22.7
  Net Profits                            160.6           174.2         217.6          262.1
  % chg                                     5.0             8.4          24.9          20.5
  OPM (%)                                 18.1            19.7          21.2           20.6
  EPS (Rs)                                12.5            13.6          17.0           20.4
  P/E (x)                                 24.4            22.5          18.0           14.9
                                                                                               Deepak Pareek
  P/BV (x)                                  5.5             5.1           4.3            3.5
                                                                                               Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 340
  RoE (%)                                 25.1            23.6          25.8           25.8    deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
  RoCE (%)                                23.4            24.4          27.4           28.0
                                                                                               Amit Vora
  EV/Sales (x)                              1.2             2.5           2.1            1.6
                                                                                               Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 322
  EV/EBITDA (x)                             6.7           12.5            9.8            7.9   amit.vora@angeltrade.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research


Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                             1
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update



Exhibit 1: 2QCY2010 Performance
Y/E December (Rs cr)              2QCY2010 1QCY2010 % chg (qoq) 2QCY2009 % chg (yoy) 1HCY2010 1HCY2009 % chg (yoy)
Net Operating Income                   419           410        2.1             339       23.4           829         646              28.4
COGS                                   290           277        4.6             233       24.7           568         452              25.6
Total operating exp.                     35           30       16.4              31       13.5             65            62            5.2
EBITDA                                   93          103       (8.9)             76       23.4           196         132              48.8
EBITDA Margin (%)                      22.3        25.0                     22.3                         23.6       20.4
Other Income                              6              4     44.7               7      (13.7)            10            14         (31.8)
Depreciation                             13           13        4.3              12       15.1             26            23           16.1
Interest                                  0              0    896.0               0      931.1              0             0         482.2
PBT                                      85           94       (8.8)             71       20.9           179         123              45.3
PBT Margin (%)                         20.4        22.8                     20.8                         21.6       19.1
Total Tax                                27           32     (13.3)              23       18.9             59            39           51.1
% of PBT                               32.1        33.8                     32.6                         33.0       31.7
PAT                                      58           62       (6.5)             48       21.8           120             84           42.6
Minority interest                         0              0     36.9               0       73.4              1             0           77.6
Adj. PAT                                 58           62       (6.7)             47       21.5           119             84           42.4
PAT Margin (%)                         13.7        15.0                     14.0                         14.4       13.0


Gas sales Volume (mmscm)                297          291          2.1           249       19.3           588        481               22.2
Gas sales Volume (mmscmd)              3.26       3.23            0.9       2.74          19.3           6.50       5.31              22.3
Source: Company, Angel Research


                                               Exhibit 2: 2QCY2010 Actual v/s Estimates
                                               (Rs cr)                                       Estimates          Actual        Variation (%)
                                               Net Operating Income                               417             419                  0.3
                                               EBITDA                                             103              93                 (9.7)
                                               EBITDA Margin %)                                   24.8           22.3                  2.5
                                               PBT                                                 95              85               (10.1)
                                               Adj. PAT                                            63              58                 (8.2)
                                              Source: Company, Angel Research

                                              Top-line up 23.4% driven by realisations and volume: GGAS reported top-line
                                              growth of 23.4% yoy to Rs419cr (Rs339cr) for 2QCY2010 as against our
                                              expectation of Rs417cr. Top-line was driven by an increase in average realisations
                                              and volumes. Average realisations increased to Rs13.8/scm (Rs13.3/scm) as
                                              against our expectation of Rs13.9/scm. Average realisations were higher owing to
                                              the price hikes implemented by the company in May 2009 to cover the impact of
                                              the depreciation in rupee on higher gas cost and CNG price hike effected on
                                              December 20, 2009 to Rs29.96/kg (from Rs27.50/kg). Sequentially, realisations
                                              remained flat.




July 23, 2010                                                                                                                             2
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                Exhibit 3: Operating revenue trend

                           500                                                                16.0
                                                  14.4
                           400                                                                12.0
                                     10.7
                           300                                                                8.0




                 (Rs cr)
                                                                         6.2




                                                                                                     (%)
                           200                                                                4.0
                                                                                      2.1
                           100                                (0.5)                           -

                            -                                                                 (4.0)
                                 2QCY10     3QCY10       4QCY10       1QCY11    2QCY11
                                 Operating Revenues         Operating Revenues growth (RHS)

                Source: Company, Angel research

                RLNG off-take flat qoq on higher domestic gas supply: Gas sourcing during the
                quarter was similar to the volume flow in 1QCY2010. During the quarter, the
                company continued to receive additional 0.2mmscmd (as in 1QCY2010) from
                PMT field, while supply from Cairn also stood higher at around 0.5mmscmd (as in
                1QCY2010). RLNG off-take was flat sequentially at around 0.4mmscmd (around
                12% of total volumes). However, on a yoy basis, volume grew on higher RLNG
                volume off-take and increase in gas supply from domestic sources. Gas
                distribution volumes during the quarter increased by 19.3% yoy to 297mmscm
                (249mmscm), which was in line with our expectation of 295mmscm. During the
                quarter, industrial retail volumes grew 20% as gas supplies increased and new
                customers were also commissioned. More than 5,500 vehicles were converted to
                CNG during the quarter, taking the total number of CNG vehicles now plying on
                natural gas in the company’s markets to 119,000. Two new CNG stations were
                also added during the quarter.

                OPM flat yoy at 22.3%, dips 270bp qoq: Sequentially, the company’s OPM dipped
                by 270bp to 22.3% (25.0%) mainly on account of the decrease in the gross gas
                spread (selling price minus the gas cost), which fell to Rs4.0/scm from the all-time
                high of Rs4.3/scm registered in 1QCY2010. This was on account of the increase in
                APM gas price and higher cost of LNG during the quarter, despite the marginal
                0.7% rupee appreciation. On a yoy basis, the company’s OPM stood flat at 22.3%
                as even the gross gas spread stood flat at Rs4.0/scm. Operating expenditure was
                also higher by 13.5% yoy to Rs35cr (Rs30.9cr), which exerted pressure on OPMs
                during the quarter. Staff costs increased 8.3% yoy to Rs12cr (Rs11.1cr), whereas
                other operating expenditure increased 16.4% yoy to Rs23cr (Rs19.8cr). Higher top-
                line and flat OPM resulted in EBITDA increasing by 23.4% yoy (in line with top-line
                growth) to Rs93cr (Rs76cr), which was lower than our expectation of Rs103cr.




July 23, 2010                                                                                         3
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                Exhibit 4: Operating performance trend

                          120         35.2                                                      40.0
                          100                                                 33.4              30.0
                           80                                                                   20.0




                (Rs cr)
                           60                                                                   10.0




                                                                                                         (%)
                                                                 8.4
                           40                                                                   -
                                                    (6.3)                               (8.9)
                           20                                                                   (10.0)
                              -                                                                 (20.0)
                                  2QCY10     3QCY10         4QCY10      1QCY11       2QCY11


                                      Operating Profit               Operating Margins (RHS)

                Source: Company, Angel Research

                Depreciation, interest costs in line: Depreciation was up 15.1% yoy to Rs13.4cr
                (Rs11.6cr) due to investments in the pipeline network, CNG and other
                infrastructure during the year. Since the company uses internal cash accruals to
                meet its working capital requirements and for expansions, the interest costs were
                negligible.


                Higher top-line boosts PAT by 21.7%, but marginally below expectation: Other
                income declined 13.7% yoy to Rs5.7cr (Rs6.6cr), while the effective tax rate was
                marginally lower at 32.1% (32.4%). Bottom-line increased by 21.5% yoy to Rs58cr
                (Rs47cr), but was marginally lower than our expectation of Rs63cr. Bottom-line
                growth could be attributed entirely to volume growth.


                Exhibit 5: PAT trend
                          70                                                                    40.0
                                                                             34.0
                          60         30.1                                                       30.0
                          50
                          40                                                                    20.0   (%)
                (Rs cr)




                          30                                                                    10.0
                          20                                    3.6
                                                                                                -
                          10                                                           (6.7)
                                                   (6.2)
                          -                                                                     (10.0)
                                  2QCY10     3QCY10         4QCY10     1QCY11        2QCY11
                                                  PAT          PAT growth (RHS)

                Source: Company, Angel Research




July 23, 2010                                                                                              4
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                Investment Arguments

                Supply-side woes receding on improving domestic gas availability and subdued
                LNG prices: The company’s volume has shown a steady growth over the last one
                year on improving gas availability in the country and subdued RLNG prices. We
                expect the uptrend to continue, however there have been some delays in receiving
                gas from KG-D6 on account of slow ramp up of gas production. However, the
                company is ensuring that volume shortfall is compensated with higher RLNG
                procurement. It recently entered into an agreement with BG India Energy Solutions
                Pvt. Ltd. (BGIES) for the supply of 0.60mmscmd of R-LNG on a firm basis for the
                months of July, August and September 2010. The company is also keen on
                entering into long-term RLNG contracts. Increase in the domestic LNG import
                capacity along with subdued LNG prices is likely to improve matters further. We
                have factored in 0.50mmscmd and 0.75mmscmd of R-LNG volumes flow for
                CY2010E and CY2011E, respectively. Thus, inclusion of R-LNG and KG gas in the
                company’s sourcing mix will reduce the concentration risks associated with
                sourcing from the PMT (76% in CY2008).

                Gross gas spread on uptrend: Gross gas spread during CY2009 edged higher as
                the company provided large proportion of its incremental gas to the high-margin
                industrial retail customers. Thus, the company's profitability has been improving
                with its focus shifting to the high-margin retail business from bulk customers
                (decreased from 30.1% in CY2006 to 13.1% in CY2008). Going ahead, we expect
                bulk volumes to be nil. We expect gross gas spread to increase going ahead to
                Rs4.11/scm and Rs4.14/scm in CY2010E and CY2011E, respectively. This could
                further improve on account of favourable exchange rate.

                Capex on track in existing areas: Pending PNGRB authorisation for the company’s
                existing areas of operation (Surat, Bharuch and Ankleshwar) has not thwarted the
                company’s expansion plans in these areas. Going ahead, the company plans to
                spend around Rs140-150cr each in CY2010E and CY2011E to enhance capacity.
                This will ensure growth continues with expansion of infrastructure.

                Outlook and Valuation

                GGAS volumes during the quarter were supported by higher gas flow from
                indigenous sources (additional PMT and Cairn volumes) as in 1QCY2010. Thus,
                reliance on RLNG reduced to that extent to support its volume growth. In the
                current quarter, RLNG constituted around 12% of total volumes. We expect RLNG
                prices to remain subdued going ahead owing to which RLNG volume flow is
                expected to be robust in the ensuing quarters. The company has also entered into
                a contract with BGIES for 0.6mmscmd of RLNG supply on a firm basis (for July,
                August and September, 2010 – i.e., 3QCY2010) to meet its growth requirements.
                The company is also keen on entering into a term contract for procurement of
                RLNG. It has received allocation of 0.6mmscmd of KG-D6 gas from the
                Government of India on a fallback basis, and is in discussion with the suppliers
                and transporters to finalise agreements for flowing this gas into its system. Thus,
                going ahead, increase in domestic volumes (gas flow from KG-D6) and RLNG
                volumes would be growth drivers for the company as well as soften the supply-side
                constraints.



July 23, 2010                                                                                    5
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update



                The company’s CNG segment has been clocking healthy growth, thereby
                increasing its share in the volume matrix. More than 119,000 natural gas vehicles
                are now plying in the company’s markets. Further, with incremental volumes likely
                to flow to the high-margin industrial retail segment, the company would register
                margin expansion going ahead. Also, potential appreciation of the rupee would be
                the icing on the cake. In the current quarter, we saw gross gas spreads
                normalising at Rs4/scm, falling from an all-time high of Rs4.3/scm registered in
                1QCY2010. We don’t expect spread to fall below Rs4/scm as the company is able
                to pass on any increase in the gas cost and benefit from rupee appreciation to
                maintain its margins.

                GGAS is still awaiting authorisation from PNGRB for its areas of operations in the
                cities of Surat, Bharuch and Ankleshwar. However, with the notification of section
                16 by MoPNG wef July 15, 2010, the company expects to receive authorisation
                from PNGRB for its areas of operation in a month’s time. Pending authorization,
                the company’s expansion plans have not been thwarted, as it continues to carry
                out expansion in its existing areas of operations. In CY2009, the company incurred
                capex of Rs155.3cr towards network expansion and infrastructure upgradation and
                is awaiting clearance from the regulatory authorities before venturing into new
                areas as per its plan. The company has filed an expression of interest application
                to operate in certain areas of Kutch and Bhavnagar.

                At the CMP of Rs306, the stock is trading at 18.0x CY2010E and 14.9x CY2011E
                earnings. We believe at the current juncture, stock is fairly valued and thus
                maintain Neutral on the stock. However, potential upside triggers for the stock
                could be the GSPC IPO (has filed the RHP), where GGAS holds stake and
                possibility of price hike in the industrial retail segment (last revised 18 months ago)
                and CNG segment.


                Exhibit 6: Key Assumptions
                                                                          CY2010E           CY2011E
                Sales volumes (mmscmd)                                         3.28              3.92
                Blended Realisation (Rs/scm)                                  13.63             14.01
                Gas Purchase cost (Rs/scm)                                     9.52              9.87
                Gross Gas Spread (Rs/scm)                                      4.11              4.14
                Other Operating exp. (Rs/scm)                                  1.32              1.34
                EBITDA (Rs/scm)                                                2.94              2.94
                Source: Company, Angel Research



                Exhibit 7: Angel EPS forecast v/s consensus
                                                  Angel Forecast Bloomberg Consensus Variation (%)
                CY2010E                                    17.0                    17.5          (2.9)
                CY2011E                                    20.4                    19.6            4.3
                Source: Company, Angel Research




July 23, 2010                                                                                        6
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                                               Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
                                                                    400
                                                                    350                                                                                                                           18x
                                                                    300




                                                 Share Price (Rs)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   15x
                                                                    250
                                                                                                                                                                                                   12x
                                                                    200
                                                                                                                                                                                                       9x
                                                                    150
                                                                                                                                                                                                       6x
                                                                    100
                                                                    50
                                                                     0

                                                                          Jan-05

                                                                                         Jul-05

                                                                                                  Jan-06

                                                                                                           Jul-06

                                                                                                                    Jan-07

                                                                                                                                 Jul-07

                                                                                                                                           Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                    Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                               Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-10
                                                Source: Company, Angel Research




Exhibit 9: Recommendation Summary
                                             Target                                                         FY2012E                            FY09-12E
                                     CMP                                  Upside FY2012E                                         FY2012E                                FY2012E              FY2012E
Company                      Reco             Price                                                          Tgt P/BV                           CAGR in
                                      (Rs)                                   (%) P/BV (x)                                          P/E (x)                              RoCE (%)              RoE (%)
                                                (Rs)                                                               (x)                           EPS (%)
Cairn India             NEUTRAL      327           -                         (3.7)                 1.6            0.0                      7.1    121.7                           25.4                 22.6
GAIL                         BUY     464       580                           25.0                  2.6              3.2                   13.2               16.8                 22.4                 20.9
GSPL                         BUY     104       120                           15.9                  2.6              3.0                   12.3               56.7                 19.9                 22.9
Gujarat Gas             NEUTRAL      306                        -                  0.2             3.5              0.0                   14.9               17.7                 28.0                 25.8
IGL               ACCUMULATE         283       317                           12.2                  3.3              3.7                   12.8               21.4                 32.6                 28.3
ONGC              ACCUMULATE        1,258     1356                                 7.8             2.0              2.1                   10.2               10.0                 23.3                 20.8
Petronet LNG            NEUTRAL        84                       -                  3.0             2.1              0.0                   11.1                3.1                 15.0                 20.6
RIL                          BUY    1,060     1260                           18.9                  1.8              2.2                   12.1               24.0                 13.8                 16.1
Shivvani Oil     UNDER REVIEW        457                        -            11.6                  1.2                       -             7.2               13.2                 14.4                 18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research




July 23, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                               7
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
                Y/E December (Rs cr)           CY06   CY07    CY08     CY09    CY10E   CY11E
                Gross sales                     946   1,229   1,293    1,409   1,658   2,039
                Less: Excise duty                10     15       19      22       26      31
                Net Sales                       936   1,214   1,274    1,387   1,633   2,007
                Other operating inc.             32     31       27      33       32      35
                Total operating income          969   1,245   1,301    1,420   1,665   2,042
                % chg                                  28.5     4.5      9.1    17.3    22.7
                Total Expenditure               819    993    1,066    1,140   1,312   1,621
                Net Raw Materials               730    879     934     1,003   1,154   1,429
                Other Mfg costs                  10     12       16      20       23      30
                Personnel                        28     31       41      45       50      57
                Other                            51     71       75      72       85     105
                EBITDA                          149    251     235      280      352     421
                % chg                                  68.3    (6.4)    18.8    26.1    19.5
                (% of Net Sales)               15.4    20.2    18.1     19.7    21.2    20.6
                Depreciation&
                                                 32     38       42      47       55      64
                Amortisation
                EBIT                            117    213     193      232      297     357
                % chg                                  81.3    (9.1)    20.0    28.1    20.1
                (% of Net Sales)               12.1    17.1    14.9     16.4    17.9    17.5
                Interest & other Charges          2      0        0       0        0       0
                Other Income                     16     17       41      27       30      37
                (% of PBT)                     12.3     7.6    17.6     10.3     9.2     9.4
                Share in profit of
                                                  -       -        -       -       -       -
                Associates
                Recurring PBT                   131    230     235      259      327     394
                % chg                                  75.3     1.9     10.3    26.5    20.4
                Extraordinary
                                                  -       -        -       -       -       -
                Expense/(Inc.)
                PBT (reported)                  131    230     235      259      327     394
                Tax                            43.1    76.6    73.0     83.6   108.7   130.9
                (% of PBT)                     32.8    33.3    31.1     32.3    33.2    33.2
                PAT (reported)                   88    154     162      175      219     263
                Add: Share of earnings of
                                                  -       -        -       -       -       -
                associate
                Less: Minority interest (MI)      1      1        1       1        1       1
                Prior period items                -       -        -       -       -       -
                PAT after MI (reported)          88    153     161      174      218     262
                ADJ. PAT                         88    153     161      174      218     262
                % chg                                  74.6     5.0      8.4    24.9    20.5
                (% of Net Sales)                9.0    12.3    12.3     12.3    13.1    12.8
                Basic EPS (Rs)                  6.8    11.9    12.5     13.6    17.0    20.4
                Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)          6.8    11.9    12.5     13.6    17.0    20.4
                % chg                                  74.6     5.0      8.4    24.9    20.5




July 23, 2010                                                                              8
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
                Y/E December (Rs cr)           CY06    CY07    CY08    CY09 CY10E CY11E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital             13      13      13      28      28     28
                Preference Capital               14      14      14      14      14     14
                Reserves& Surplus               431     560     697     738     894 1,080
                Shareholders Funds              458     588     725     780     936 1,122
                Minority Interest                 3       4       4       5       6      7
                Total Loans                      90     112     127     155     164    173
                Deferred Tax Liability           46      45      50      56      66     78
                Total Liabilities               598     748     906     996    1,172 1,380
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                     627     710     767     914    1,019 1,134
                Less: Acc. Depreciation         210     248     285     333     388    452
                Net Block                       417     462     482     581     631    682
                Capital Work-in-Progress        106     111     134     136     166    196
                Goodwill                           -       -       -       -       -     -
                Investments                     140     235     356     448     448    448
                Current Assets                  147     166     175     179     241    423
                   Cash                          16      18      22       8      32    158
                   Loans & Advances              33      34      25      26      33     43
                   Other                         97     115     128     145     175    222
                Current liabilities             215     228     241     348     313    369
                Net Current Assets              (68)    (62)    (66)   (168)    (72)    54
                Mis. Exp. not written off         3       2       0       0        -     -
                Total Assets                    598     748     906     996    1,172 1,380




July 23, 2010                                                                            9
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
                Y/E December (Rs cr)           CY06    CY07    CY08    CY09 CY10E CY11E
                Profit before tax               131     230     235     259     327     394
                Depreciation                     32      38      42      47      55      64
                Change in Working Capital        (4)      5      12     (30)    (12)    (15)
                Less: Other income               (7)    (13)    (25)    (21)    (30)    (37)
                Direct taxes paid               (45)    (73)    (57)    (78)    (99)   (119)
                Cash Flow from Operations       107     187     206     178     241     287
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets   (142)    (92)    (90)   (152)   (135)   (145)
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments      56    (109)   (126)    (63)       -       -
                Other income                     11      13      23      18      30      37
                Cash Flow from Investing        (75)   (187)   (192)   (197)   (105)   (108)
                Issue of Equity                  14        -       -       -       -       -
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans            (31)     22      15      28       9       9
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)       (16)    (20)    (24)    (24)   (121)    (61)
                Cash Flow from Financing        (32)      1      (9)      4    (112)    (53)
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash              (0)      1       5     (15)     24     126
                Opening Cash balances            16      16      18      22       8      32
                Closing Cash balances            16      18      22       8      32     158




July 23, 2010                                                                            10
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




                Key Ratios
                Y/E December                 CY06     CY07     CY08     CY09     CY10E    CY11E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)               44.7      25.6     24.4     22.5     18.0     14.9
                P/CEPS                       32.8      20.5     19.4     17.7     14.4     12.0
                P/BV                          8.9       6.9      5.5      5.1      4.3      3.5
                Dividend yield (%)            0.4       0.5      0.5      2.6      1.3      1.6
                EV/Sales                      1.9       1.4      1.2      2.5      2.1      1.6
                EV/EBITDA                    12.1       6.8      6.7     12.5      9.8      7.9
                EV/Total Assets               3.0       2.3      1.7      3.5      3.0      2.4
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                   6.8      11.9     12.5     13.6     17.0     20.4
                EPS (fully diluted)           6.8      11.9     12.5     13.6     17.0     20.4
                Cash EPS                      9.3      14.9     15.8     17.3     21.3     25.4
                DPS                           1.3       1.5      1.5      8.0      4.0      5.0
                Book Value                   34.4      44.5     55.3     59.7     71.9     86.4
                Dupont Analysis (%)
                EBIT margin                  12.1      17.1     14.9     16.4     17.9     17.5
                Tax retention ratio          67.9      67.1     69.3     67.7     66.8     66.8
                Asset turnover (x)            2.1       1.9      1.6      1.5      1.6      1.7
                ROIC (Post-tax)              17.6      21.8     16.6     16.8     18.7     20.2
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)          -         -        -        -        -        -
                Leverage (x)                     -         -        -        -        -        -
                Operating ROE                17.6      21.8     16.6     16.8     18.7     20.2
                Returns (%)
                ROCE (Pre-tax)               20.7      31.7     23.4     24.4     27.4     28.0
                Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)         31.3      39.0     28.3     29.0     32.5     35.7
                ROE                          21.6      30.2     25.1     23.6     25.8     25.8
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross
                                              1.6       1.9      1.8      1.7      1.7      1.9
                Block)
                Inventory / Sales (days)        4         5        5        5        5        5
                Receivables (days)             24        25       26       27       27       28
                Payables (days)                69        66       63       62       58       54
                Working capital cycle (ex-
                                              (33)      (24)    (24)     (34)      (31)     (19)
                cash) (days)
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Net debt to equity           (0.3)     (0.4)    (0.5)    (0.6)    (0.5)    (0.5)
                Net debt to EBITDA           (1.0)     (1.0)    (1.6)    (1.5)    (1.3)    (1.4)
                Interest Coverage
                                               53     2,008    1,743    1,707    1,982    2,382
                (EBIT/Interest)




July 23, 2010                                                                                11
Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update




  Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800               E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                   Website: www.angeltrade.com

  DISCLAIMER

 This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
 decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
 such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
 referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
 risks of such an investment.

 Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
 investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
 document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

 Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
 trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
 fundamentals.

 The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
 sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
 document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
 responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
 Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
 nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
 Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
 compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
 This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
 redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

 Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
 other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
 the past.

 Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
 connection with the use of this information.

 Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
 refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
 its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                              Gujarat Gas
 1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                 No
 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                           No
 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                      No

 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



 Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                 Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)


July 23, 2010                                                                                                                             12

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Gujarat Gas

  • 1. 2QCY2010 Result Update | Oil & Gas July 23, 2010 Gujarat Gas NEUTRAL CMP Rs306 Performance Highlights Target Price - Y/E December (Rs cr) 2QCY10 1QCY10 % chg (qoq) 2QCY09 % chg (yoy) Investment Period - Net Operating Income 419 410 2.1 339 23.4 EBITDA 93 103 (8.9) 76 23.4 Stock Info EBITDA Margin (%) 22.3 25.0 (2.7) 22.3 (0.0) Sector Oil & Gas Adj. PAT 58 62 (6.7) 47 21.5 Market Cap (Rs cr) 3,500 Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.5 52 Week High / Low 319/152 Gujarat Gas’s (GGAS) 2QCY2010 numbers were marginally lower than our expectation on the bottom-line front, which increased 21.5% yoy to Rs58cr Avg. Daily Volume 37015 (Rs47cr) as against our expectation of Rs63cr. Gross gas spread fell to Rs4.0/scm Face Value (Rs) 10 from the all-time high of Rs4.3/scm registered in 1QCY2010. At Rs306, the stock BSE Sensex 18,131 is trading at fair valuations of 18.0x CY2010E and 14.9x CY2011E earnings. Hence, we maintain a Neutral on the stock. Nifty 5,449 Reuters Code GGAS.BO Gross gas spread normalises on higher gas cost: For 2QCY2010, GGAS Bloomberg Code GGAS@IN reported top-line growth of 23.4% yoy to Rs419cr (Rs339cr) as against our expectation of Rs417cr. Average realisations increased to Rs13.8/scm (Rs13.3/scm) as against our expectation of Rs13.9/scm. OPM came in flat at 22.3% yoy as even the gross gas spread stood flat at Rs4.0/scm. Spreads were Shareholding Pattern (%) flat despite the price hikes undertaken over the last one year as the gas cost was Promoters 65.1 also higher (increase in APM gas price and higher cost of LNG), despite the MF / Banks / Indian Fls 10.0 marginal 0.7% rupee appreciation. FII / NRIs / OCBs 15.3 Outlook and Valuation: GGAS volumes were supported by higher gas flow from Indian Public / Others 9.6 indigenous sources (additional PMT and Cairn volumes) and RLNG volume (around 12% of total gas sourced), as in 1QCY2010. We expect RLNG prices to remain subdued owing to which in the ensuing quarters, we expect RLNG volume Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr flow to be robust. Increase in domestic volumes (gas flow from KG-D6) and RLNG volumes would be the future growth drivers for the company and soften supply- Sensex 2.5 19 15.2 side constraints. With incremental volumes likely to flow to the high-margin GGAS 8.3 96.7 112.7 industrial retail segment, the company would register expansion in margins going ahead. We value the company at Rs306, which translates into 15x CY2011E EPS of Rs20.4. We maintain a Neutral on the stock. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E December (Rs cr) CY2008 CY2009E CY2010E CY2011E Net Sales 1,301.3 1,419.7 1,664.7 2,042.3 % chg 4.5 9.1 17.3 22.7 Net Profits 160.6 174.2 217.6 262.1 % chg 5.0 8.4 24.9 20.5 OPM (%) 18.1 19.7 21.2 20.6 EPS (Rs) 12.5 13.6 17.0 20.4 P/E (x) 24.4 22.5 18.0 14.9 Deepak Pareek P/BV (x) 5.5 5.1 4.3 3.5 Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 340 RoE (%) 25.1 23.6 25.8 25.8 deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com RoCE (%) 23.4 24.4 27.4 28.0 Amit Vora EV/Sales (x) 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.6 Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 322 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 12.5 9.8 7.9 amit.vora@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 2QCY2010 Performance Y/E December (Rs cr) 2QCY2010 1QCY2010 % chg (qoq) 2QCY2009 % chg (yoy) 1HCY2010 1HCY2009 % chg (yoy) Net Operating Income 419 410 2.1 339 23.4 829 646 28.4 COGS 290 277 4.6 233 24.7 568 452 25.6 Total operating exp. 35 30 16.4 31 13.5 65 62 5.2 EBITDA 93 103 (8.9) 76 23.4 196 132 48.8 EBITDA Margin (%) 22.3 25.0 22.3 23.6 20.4 Other Income 6 4 44.7 7 (13.7) 10 14 (31.8) Depreciation 13 13 4.3 12 15.1 26 23 16.1 Interest 0 0 896.0 0 931.1 0 0 482.2 PBT 85 94 (8.8) 71 20.9 179 123 45.3 PBT Margin (%) 20.4 22.8 20.8 21.6 19.1 Total Tax 27 32 (13.3) 23 18.9 59 39 51.1 % of PBT 32.1 33.8 32.6 33.0 31.7 PAT 58 62 (6.5) 48 21.8 120 84 42.6 Minority interest 0 0 36.9 0 73.4 1 0 77.6 Adj. PAT 58 62 (6.7) 47 21.5 119 84 42.4 PAT Margin (%) 13.7 15.0 14.0 14.4 13.0 Gas sales Volume (mmscm) 297 291 2.1 249 19.3 588 481 22.2 Gas sales Volume (mmscmd) 3.26 3.23 0.9 2.74 19.3 6.50 5.31 22.3 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: 2QCY2010 Actual v/s Estimates (Rs cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%) Net Operating Income 417 419 0.3 EBITDA 103 93 (9.7) EBITDA Margin %) 24.8 22.3 2.5 PBT 95 85 (10.1) Adj. PAT 63 58 (8.2) Source: Company, Angel Research Top-line up 23.4% driven by realisations and volume: GGAS reported top-line growth of 23.4% yoy to Rs419cr (Rs339cr) for 2QCY2010 as against our expectation of Rs417cr. Top-line was driven by an increase in average realisations and volumes. Average realisations increased to Rs13.8/scm (Rs13.3/scm) as against our expectation of Rs13.9/scm. Average realisations were higher owing to the price hikes implemented by the company in May 2009 to cover the impact of the depreciation in rupee on higher gas cost and CNG price hike effected on December 20, 2009 to Rs29.96/kg (from Rs27.50/kg). Sequentially, realisations remained flat. July 23, 2010 2
  • 3. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Exhibit 3: Operating revenue trend 500 16.0 14.4 400 12.0 10.7 300 8.0 (Rs cr) 6.2 (%) 200 4.0 2.1 100 (0.5) - - (4.0) 2QCY10 3QCY10 4QCY10 1QCY11 2QCY11 Operating Revenues Operating Revenues growth (RHS) Source: Company, Angel research RLNG off-take flat qoq on higher domestic gas supply: Gas sourcing during the quarter was similar to the volume flow in 1QCY2010. During the quarter, the company continued to receive additional 0.2mmscmd (as in 1QCY2010) from PMT field, while supply from Cairn also stood higher at around 0.5mmscmd (as in 1QCY2010). RLNG off-take was flat sequentially at around 0.4mmscmd (around 12% of total volumes). However, on a yoy basis, volume grew on higher RLNG volume off-take and increase in gas supply from domestic sources. Gas distribution volumes during the quarter increased by 19.3% yoy to 297mmscm (249mmscm), which was in line with our expectation of 295mmscm. During the quarter, industrial retail volumes grew 20% as gas supplies increased and new customers were also commissioned. More than 5,500 vehicles were converted to CNG during the quarter, taking the total number of CNG vehicles now plying on natural gas in the company’s markets to 119,000. Two new CNG stations were also added during the quarter. OPM flat yoy at 22.3%, dips 270bp qoq: Sequentially, the company’s OPM dipped by 270bp to 22.3% (25.0%) mainly on account of the decrease in the gross gas spread (selling price minus the gas cost), which fell to Rs4.0/scm from the all-time high of Rs4.3/scm registered in 1QCY2010. This was on account of the increase in APM gas price and higher cost of LNG during the quarter, despite the marginal 0.7% rupee appreciation. On a yoy basis, the company’s OPM stood flat at 22.3% as even the gross gas spread stood flat at Rs4.0/scm. Operating expenditure was also higher by 13.5% yoy to Rs35cr (Rs30.9cr), which exerted pressure on OPMs during the quarter. Staff costs increased 8.3% yoy to Rs12cr (Rs11.1cr), whereas other operating expenditure increased 16.4% yoy to Rs23cr (Rs19.8cr). Higher top- line and flat OPM resulted in EBITDA increasing by 23.4% yoy (in line with top-line growth) to Rs93cr (Rs76cr), which was lower than our expectation of Rs103cr. July 23, 2010 3
  • 4. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Exhibit 4: Operating performance trend 120 35.2 40.0 100 33.4 30.0 80 20.0 (Rs cr) 60 10.0 (%) 8.4 40 - (6.3) (8.9) 20 (10.0) - (20.0) 2QCY10 3QCY10 4QCY10 1QCY11 2QCY11 Operating Profit Operating Margins (RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research Depreciation, interest costs in line: Depreciation was up 15.1% yoy to Rs13.4cr (Rs11.6cr) due to investments in the pipeline network, CNG and other infrastructure during the year. Since the company uses internal cash accruals to meet its working capital requirements and for expansions, the interest costs were negligible. Higher top-line boosts PAT by 21.7%, but marginally below expectation: Other income declined 13.7% yoy to Rs5.7cr (Rs6.6cr), while the effective tax rate was marginally lower at 32.1% (32.4%). Bottom-line increased by 21.5% yoy to Rs58cr (Rs47cr), but was marginally lower than our expectation of Rs63cr. Bottom-line growth could be attributed entirely to volume growth. Exhibit 5: PAT trend 70 40.0 34.0 60 30.1 30.0 50 40 20.0 (%) (Rs cr) 30 10.0 20 3.6 - 10 (6.7) (6.2) - (10.0) 2QCY10 3QCY10 4QCY10 1QCY11 2QCY11 PAT PAT growth (RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research July 23, 2010 4
  • 5. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Investment Arguments Supply-side woes receding on improving domestic gas availability and subdued LNG prices: The company’s volume has shown a steady growth over the last one year on improving gas availability in the country and subdued RLNG prices. We expect the uptrend to continue, however there have been some delays in receiving gas from KG-D6 on account of slow ramp up of gas production. However, the company is ensuring that volume shortfall is compensated with higher RLNG procurement. It recently entered into an agreement with BG India Energy Solutions Pvt. Ltd. (BGIES) for the supply of 0.60mmscmd of R-LNG on a firm basis for the months of July, August and September 2010. The company is also keen on entering into long-term RLNG contracts. Increase in the domestic LNG import capacity along with subdued LNG prices is likely to improve matters further. We have factored in 0.50mmscmd and 0.75mmscmd of R-LNG volumes flow for CY2010E and CY2011E, respectively. Thus, inclusion of R-LNG and KG gas in the company’s sourcing mix will reduce the concentration risks associated with sourcing from the PMT (76% in CY2008). Gross gas spread on uptrend: Gross gas spread during CY2009 edged higher as the company provided large proportion of its incremental gas to the high-margin industrial retail customers. Thus, the company's profitability has been improving with its focus shifting to the high-margin retail business from bulk customers (decreased from 30.1% in CY2006 to 13.1% in CY2008). Going ahead, we expect bulk volumes to be nil. We expect gross gas spread to increase going ahead to Rs4.11/scm and Rs4.14/scm in CY2010E and CY2011E, respectively. This could further improve on account of favourable exchange rate. Capex on track in existing areas: Pending PNGRB authorisation for the company’s existing areas of operation (Surat, Bharuch and Ankleshwar) has not thwarted the company’s expansion plans in these areas. Going ahead, the company plans to spend around Rs140-150cr each in CY2010E and CY2011E to enhance capacity. This will ensure growth continues with expansion of infrastructure. Outlook and Valuation GGAS volumes during the quarter were supported by higher gas flow from indigenous sources (additional PMT and Cairn volumes) as in 1QCY2010. Thus, reliance on RLNG reduced to that extent to support its volume growth. In the current quarter, RLNG constituted around 12% of total volumes. We expect RLNG prices to remain subdued going ahead owing to which RLNG volume flow is expected to be robust in the ensuing quarters. The company has also entered into a contract with BGIES for 0.6mmscmd of RLNG supply on a firm basis (for July, August and September, 2010 – i.e., 3QCY2010) to meet its growth requirements. The company is also keen on entering into a term contract for procurement of RLNG. It has received allocation of 0.6mmscmd of KG-D6 gas from the Government of India on a fallback basis, and is in discussion with the suppliers and transporters to finalise agreements for flowing this gas into its system. Thus, going ahead, increase in domestic volumes (gas flow from KG-D6) and RLNG volumes would be growth drivers for the company as well as soften the supply-side constraints. July 23, 2010 5
  • 6. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update The company’s CNG segment has been clocking healthy growth, thereby increasing its share in the volume matrix. More than 119,000 natural gas vehicles are now plying in the company’s markets. Further, with incremental volumes likely to flow to the high-margin industrial retail segment, the company would register margin expansion going ahead. Also, potential appreciation of the rupee would be the icing on the cake. In the current quarter, we saw gross gas spreads normalising at Rs4/scm, falling from an all-time high of Rs4.3/scm registered in 1QCY2010. We don’t expect spread to fall below Rs4/scm as the company is able to pass on any increase in the gas cost and benefit from rupee appreciation to maintain its margins. GGAS is still awaiting authorisation from PNGRB for its areas of operations in the cities of Surat, Bharuch and Ankleshwar. However, with the notification of section 16 by MoPNG wef July 15, 2010, the company expects to receive authorisation from PNGRB for its areas of operation in a month’s time. Pending authorization, the company’s expansion plans have not been thwarted, as it continues to carry out expansion in its existing areas of operations. In CY2009, the company incurred capex of Rs155.3cr towards network expansion and infrastructure upgradation and is awaiting clearance from the regulatory authorities before venturing into new areas as per its plan. The company has filed an expression of interest application to operate in certain areas of Kutch and Bhavnagar. At the CMP of Rs306, the stock is trading at 18.0x CY2010E and 14.9x CY2011E earnings. We believe at the current juncture, stock is fairly valued and thus maintain Neutral on the stock. However, potential upside triggers for the stock could be the GSPC IPO (has filed the RHP), where GGAS holds stake and possibility of price hike in the industrial retail segment (last revised 18 months ago) and CNG segment. Exhibit 6: Key Assumptions CY2010E CY2011E Sales volumes (mmscmd) 3.28 3.92 Blended Realisation (Rs/scm) 13.63 14.01 Gas Purchase cost (Rs/scm) 9.52 9.87 Gross Gas Spread (Rs/scm) 4.11 4.14 Other Operating exp. (Rs/scm) 1.32 1.34 EBITDA (Rs/scm) 2.94 2.94 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 7: Angel EPS forecast v/s consensus Angel Forecast Bloomberg Consensus Variation (%) CY2010E 17.0 17.5 (2.9) CY2011E 20.4 19.6 4.3 Source: Company, Angel Research July 23, 2010 6
  • 7. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band 400 350 18x 300 Share Price (Rs) 15x 250 12x 200 9x 150 6x 100 50 0 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 9: Recommendation Summary Target FY2012E FY09-12E CMP Upside FY2012E FY2012E FY2012E FY2012E Company Reco Price Tgt P/BV CAGR in (Rs) (%) P/BV (x) P/E (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) (Rs) (x) EPS (%) Cairn India NEUTRAL 327 - (3.7) 1.6 0.0 7.1 121.7 25.4 22.6 GAIL BUY 464 580 25.0 2.6 3.2 13.2 16.8 22.4 20.9 GSPL BUY 104 120 15.9 2.6 3.0 12.3 56.7 19.9 22.9 Gujarat Gas NEUTRAL 306 - 0.2 3.5 0.0 14.9 17.7 28.0 25.8 IGL ACCUMULATE 283 317 12.2 3.3 3.7 12.8 21.4 32.6 28.3 ONGC ACCUMULATE 1,258 1356 7.8 2.0 2.1 10.2 10.0 23.3 20.8 Petronet LNG NEUTRAL 84 - 3.0 2.1 0.0 11.1 3.1 15.0 20.6 RIL BUY 1,060 1260 18.9 1.8 2.2 12.1 24.0 13.8 16.1 Shivvani Oil UNDER REVIEW 457 - 11.6 1.2 - 7.2 13.2 14.4 18.9 Source: Company, Angel Research July 23, 2010 7
  • 8. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Y/E December (Rs cr) CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10E CY11E Gross sales 946 1,229 1,293 1,409 1,658 2,039 Less: Excise duty 10 15 19 22 26 31 Net Sales 936 1,214 1,274 1,387 1,633 2,007 Other operating inc. 32 31 27 33 32 35 Total operating income 969 1,245 1,301 1,420 1,665 2,042 % chg 28.5 4.5 9.1 17.3 22.7 Total Expenditure 819 993 1,066 1,140 1,312 1,621 Net Raw Materials 730 879 934 1,003 1,154 1,429 Other Mfg costs 10 12 16 20 23 30 Personnel 28 31 41 45 50 57 Other 51 71 75 72 85 105 EBITDA 149 251 235 280 352 421 % chg 68.3 (6.4) 18.8 26.1 19.5 (% of Net Sales) 15.4 20.2 18.1 19.7 21.2 20.6 Depreciation& 32 38 42 47 55 64 Amortisation EBIT 117 213 193 232 297 357 % chg 81.3 (9.1) 20.0 28.1 20.1 (% of Net Sales) 12.1 17.1 14.9 16.4 17.9 17.5 Interest & other Charges 2 0 0 0 0 0 Other Income 16 17 41 27 30 37 (% of PBT) 12.3 7.6 17.6 10.3 9.2 9.4 Share in profit of - - - - - - Associates Recurring PBT 131 230 235 259 327 394 % chg 75.3 1.9 10.3 26.5 20.4 Extraordinary - - - - - - Expense/(Inc.) PBT (reported) 131 230 235 259 327 394 Tax 43.1 76.6 73.0 83.6 108.7 130.9 (% of PBT) 32.8 33.3 31.1 32.3 33.2 33.2 PAT (reported) 88 154 162 175 219 263 Add: Share of earnings of - - - - - - associate Less: Minority interest (MI) 1 1 1 1 1 1 Prior period items - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 88 153 161 174 218 262 ADJ. PAT 88 153 161 174 218 262 % chg 74.6 5.0 8.4 24.9 20.5 (% of Net Sales) 9.0 12.3 12.3 12.3 13.1 12.8 Basic EPS (Rs) 6.8 11.9 12.5 13.6 17.0 20.4 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 6.8 11.9 12.5 13.6 17.0 20.4 % chg 74.6 5.0 8.4 24.9 20.5 July 23, 2010 8
  • 9. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Y/E December (Rs cr) CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10E CY11E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 13 13 13 28 28 28 Preference Capital 14 14 14 14 14 14 Reserves& Surplus 431 560 697 738 894 1,080 Shareholders Funds 458 588 725 780 936 1,122 Minority Interest 3 4 4 5 6 7 Total Loans 90 112 127 155 164 173 Deferred Tax Liability 46 45 50 56 66 78 Total Liabilities 598 748 906 996 1,172 1,380 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 627 710 767 914 1,019 1,134 Less: Acc. Depreciation 210 248 285 333 388 452 Net Block 417 462 482 581 631 682 Capital Work-in-Progress 106 111 134 136 166 196 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 140 235 356 448 448 448 Current Assets 147 166 175 179 241 423 Cash 16 18 22 8 32 158 Loans & Advances 33 34 25 26 33 43 Other 97 115 128 145 175 222 Current liabilities 215 228 241 348 313 369 Net Current Assets (68) (62) (66) (168) (72) 54 Mis. Exp. not written off 3 2 0 0 - - Total Assets 598 748 906 996 1,172 1,380 July 23, 2010 9
  • 10. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E December (Rs cr) CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10E CY11E Profit before tax 131 230 235 259 327 394 Depreciation 32 38 42 47 55 64 Change in Working Capital (4) 5 12 (30) (12) (15) Less: Other income (7) (13) (25) (21) (30) (37) Direct taxes paid (45) (73) (57) (78) (99) (119) Cash Flow from Operations 107 187 206 178 241 287 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (142) (92) (90) (152) (135) (145) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 56 (109) (126) (63) - - Other income 11 13 23 18 30 37 Cash Flow from Investing (75) (187) (192) (197) (105) (108) Issue of Equity 14 - - - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans (31) 22 15 28 9 9 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (16) (20) (24) (24) (121) (61) Cash Flow from Financing (32) 1 (9) 4 (112) (53) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (0) 1 5 (15) 24 126 Opening Cash balances 16 16 18 22 8 32 Closing Cash balances 16 18 22 8 32 158 July 23, 2010 10
  • 11. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E December CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10E CY11E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 44.7 25.6 24.4 22.5 18.0 14.9 P/CEPS 32.8 20.5 19.4 17.7 14.4 12.0 P/BV 8.9 6.9 5.5 5.1 4.3 3.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.6 1.3 1.6 EV/Sales 1.9 1.4 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.6 EV/EBITDA 12.1 6.8 6.7 12.5 9.8 7.9 EV/Total Assets 3.0 2.3 1.7 3.5 3.0 2.4 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 6.8 11.9 12.5 13.6 17.0 20.4 EPS (fully diluted) 6.8 11.9 12.5 13.6 17.0 20.4 Cash EPS 9.3 14.9 15.8 17.3 21.3 25.4 DPS 1.3 1.5 1.5 8.0 4.0 5.0 Book Value 34.4 44.5 55.3 59.7 71.9 86.4 Dupont Analysis (%) EBIT margin 12.1 17.1 14.9 16.4 17.9 17.5 Tax retention ratio 67.9 67.1 69.3 67.7 66.8 66.8 Asset turnover (x) 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 ROIC (Post-tax) 17.6 21.8 16.6 16.8 18.7 20.2 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - - Leverage (x) - - - - - - Operating ROE 17.6 21.8 16.6 16.8 18.7 20.2 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 20.7 31.7 23.4 24.4 27.4 28.0 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 31.3 39.0 28.3 29.0 32.5 35.7 ROE 21.6 30.2 25.1 23.6 25.8 25.8 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 Block) Inventory / Sales (days) 4 5 5 5 5 5 Receivables (days) 24 25 26 27 27 28 Payables (days) 69 66 63 62 58 54 Working capital cycle (ex- (33) (24) (24) (34) (31) (19) cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) Net debt to EBITDA (1.0) (1.0) (1.6) (1.5) (1.3) (1.4) Interest Coverage 53 2,008 1,743 1,707 1,982 2,382 (EBIT/Interest) July 23, 2010 11
  • 12. Gujarat Gas | 2QCY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Gujarat Gas 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) July 23, 2010 12