Know your platform. 7 things every scala developer should know about jvm
@RISK Unchained Webinar
1. • To minimize background noise and audio feedback, the meeting’s global
microphone is muted – except for mine.
• Please also mute the audio controls on your side.
• At certain points in the presentation I may announce that I’ll be fielding
questions. When announced, please type your question into the
GoToMeeting chat window.
• Of course, you may pre-emptively type your questions in.
• We have a lot of material to cover, so the presentation will proceed at a
rapid clip. You are always welcome to e-mail or call to review anything
that you may have questions about or would like to see again.
• Today’s webinar will be recorded and posted on the Palisade website
under the “TRAINING & EVENTS” menu.
Webinar Notes
2. Andrew J Sich, Regional Sales Manager
asich@palisade.com; (800) 432-7475 x330
@RISK Unchained!
Seldom used yet highly valued features you
probably didn’t know about
3. Presentation Objectives
(1) Learn about your partner: Palisade Corp. (appx. 5 minutes)
(3) For those new to @RISK . . .
A walk-through on how to apply 3 fundamentals to
Run a Monte Carlo simulation on your spreadsheet,
and how to interpret the results. (appx. 15 minutes)
(5) For everyone: New features in @RISK Version
(appx. 10 minutes)
(2) For those new to Monte Carlo simulation . . .
An introduction (appx. 5 minutes)
(4) For everyone: Seldom used @RISK features – valuable
for answering the boss’s barrage of ‘What If’ questions.
(appx. 25 minutes)
(6) More: Stochastic Time Series and MS Project Integration
4. Palisade Corporation is the maker of the market leading
risk and decision analysis software @RISK.
@RISK is the flagship product within the DecisionTools Suite
which also includes the following MS Excel add-ins:
l PrecisionTree l StatTools l RISKOptimizer
l TopRank l NeuralTools l Evolver
@RISK.
DecisionTools Suite,
5. London
Sydney
Ithaca, NY
Rio de Janiero
Tokyo
Palisade Global Presence
Cuenca
6 global offices and 8 language versions
l English l 中国语言 l Français l Deutsch
l 日本語 l Português l Русский язык l Español
6. l Certified Microsoft Partner
Palisade Recognition
l Intel Software Partner
l Accredited PMI Registered Education Provider
l Approved Education Provider for the AACE
l Sponsor of Continuing Professional Education
on The National Registry of CPE Sponsors
l Primary Monte Carlo simulation tool at the majority of
academic institutions in North America and Europe
9. Risk Modeling: The Old Way
Single Point Estimates
Do you make multi-million dollar decisions based on 1 number?
3-Point Estimates or Scenario Analyses
Do you make multi-million dollar decisions based on 3 numbers?
Manual What-if Analyses
Will you mandate that your analysts run a hundred scenarios for your
million dollar decision? How much will that cost you?!?
What if something changes? What if many things change,
and change at different times? Managing risk then becomes
cumbersome, time consuming, and error laden.
10. Probability Distributions
The direct result of Monte Carlo simulations,
which are absolutely necessary for making
defensible business decisions and for managing risk.
Risk Modeling: The New Way
Probability distributions furnish you with the full range of
possible outcomes, how likely those outcomes are to occur,
and identifies those items that impact your bottom line most
significantly and by how much.
11. What is Monte Carlo simulation?!?!
At its core, Monte Carlo simulation is a virtual experiment
– repeated hundreds, thousands, even millions of times –
all the while generating random samples, bound by a set
of parameters that you define, from each repetition of that
experiment.
It’s really not rocket science.
Those random samples are then collected, organized,
and analyzed to help you understand something about
the behavior of that process or system.
12. What is Monte Carlo simulation?!?!
Let’s use a common example to illustrate
. . . rolling a pair of dice . . .
What happens when we roll the dice 48 times . . . and collect the results?
Imagine we have only a vague
idea of how 2 dice behave when
rolled.
Let’s model it!
We define the parameters as:
“2 dice”
each with
“6 possible outcomes”
13. What is Monte Carlo simulation?!?!
We get a bunch of numbers . . .
Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total
1 4 5 3 6 9 4 3 7 6 6 12
2 2 4 2 4 6 2 2 4 3 4 7
3 3 6 1 1 2 3 1 4 1 1 2
4 1 5 6 2 8 1 6 7 6 2 8
1 6 7 5 3 8 6 5 11 5 3 8
6 5 11 2 5 7 5 4 9 2 5 7
Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total
6 1 7 3 4 7 3 3 6 3 4 7
4 2 6 6 2 8 6 1 7 6 2 8
1 3 4 2 3 5 2 6 8 2 3 5
2 4 6 4 1 5 4 1 5 4 1 5
3 5 8 5 5 10 5 2 7 5 6 11
5 6 11 1 5 6 1 6 7 1 5 6
14. What is Monte Carlo simulation?!?!
Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total
1 4 5 3 6 9 4 3 7 6 6 12
2 2 4 2 4 6 2 2 4 3 4 7
3 3 6 1 1 2 3 1 4 1 1 2
4 1 5 6 2 8 1 6 7 6 2 8
1 6 7 5 3 8 6 5 11 5 3 8
6 5 11 2 5 7 5 4 9 2 5 7
Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total Die 1 Die 2 Total
6 1 7 3 4 7 3 3 6 3 4 7
4 2 6 6 2 8 6 1 7 6 2 8
1 3 4 2 3 5 2 6 8 2 3 5
2 4 6 4 1 5 4 1 5 4 1 5
3 5 8 5 5 10 5 2 7 5 6 11
5 6 11 1 5 6 1 6 7 1 5 6
We then collect those numbers . . .
5 9 7 12
4 6 4 7
6 2 4 2
5 8 7 8
7 8 11 8
11 7 9 7
7 7 6 7
6 8 7 8
4 5 8 5
6 5 5 5
8 10 7 11
11 6 7 6
. . . and then condense the numbers into just the totals . . .
16. What is Monte Carlo simulation?!?!
The result is a chart that illustrates something about the
behavior of rolling dice.
7
7
7
7
7 8
5 6 7 8
5 6 7 8
5 6 7 8
4 5 6 7 8 11
4 5 6 7 8 11
2 4 5 6 7 8 9 11
2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
12
F 10
r
e 8
q
u 6
n
c 4
y
2
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
17. What is Monte Carlo simulation?!?!
Let’s review . . .
Monte Carlo simulation is a virtual experiment that
repeats a process or project or situation a large number
of times, and generates a large number of random
samples bound by a specific set of parameters.
Those random samples are collected and then
organized and analyzed to help you understand the
behavior of a simple or complex system or process.
18. Benefits of Using @RISK
Peace of Mind
Scrutinized, accepted, and lauded for 30+ years at all levels
of academia, commercial industry, government & military.
Make Defensible Business Decisions
Transform decision making discussions by illustrating
“ranges”, “probabilities”, and “likelihood of occurrence” –
and leave poor decisions arising from single point
estimates to historians.
Ease of Use
Work in the familiar environment of MS Excel with native
Excel functions that allow full cell referencing capabilities.
20. @RISK Demo
Reports
Present your modeling results in a variety of ways with attractive,
easy to interpret, and time saving charts, graphs, and reports.
24. Stress Analysis
Analyze the effect of stressing @RISK distributions
between a set of percentiles, like the tails.
“Stressing” a distribution restricts samples drawn from a distribution
to values between a specified pair of percentiles, e.g. the left or
right tail. Compare the results of a simulation with stressed inputs
to a baseline simulation with no stress.
25. Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
Analyze the effect of any input at a specific value on an @RISK Output.
@RISK runs a separate simulation for any number of isolated
inputs, across a range of values. Inputs may be @RISK
distributions or even cells with no @RISK function.
26. RiskLock
Lock specified inputs from sampling.
Locking a cell with an @RISK input at its expected value, or any
subsection of cells, lets you observe the effects of uncertainty of
remaining or unlocked @RISK inputs.
27. RiskSimtable
Run a set of sequential simulations for different scenarios
for side-by-side comparison.
28. @RISK Goal Seek
Find the value of an input that leads to a desired simulated Goal.
Similar to Excel’s Goal Seek. However, unlike Excel’s Goal Seek,
@RISK's Goal Seek utilizes multiple simulations to find the
adjustable cell value that achieves your specified target.
29. Efficient Frontier Analysis
with RISKOptimizer
Optimization competing goals under uncertainty.
Affectionately referred to as a solver on steroids.
New in Version
31. Data Viewer
View any Excel data with @RISK’s graphing engine.
No simulation necessary.
New in Version
Select any variable or data set and instantly create histograms,
cumulative charts, scatterplots, trend, or box plots, for consistency
in presentation of data.
32. Thank You!
We’ll now field questions . . .
. . . via the GoToMeeting chat mechanism.
