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The futures of the museum




Museum of the Long Now
June 02008

Andrew Curry
Director, Henley Centre HeadlightVision
                                          1
•Why futures work
    •The drivers of change
    •Some emerging scenarios
    •More detail on the trends



© HCHLV 2007                     2
Why do we do futures work



       The pragmatic reason
       Because we want to have agile and responsive organisations
       which can manage in uncertain environments and are able to
       identify opportunities and risks early.




       The theoretical reason
       “We are all open systems theorists now”



                                                                        3




© HCHLV 2007                                                        3
Organisations as open systems


                                                             Wider social environment
                                                               (a field of value shifts as people change
                                                                               their world)


                          Task environment
                (e.g. competitors, regulatory agencies,
               changing user base, technology changes




                      System
                 (e.g corporation,
                 community, trade                                                        “For a system to be viable over time, it
                  association, or                                                        needs to:
                     network of                                                          •constantly scan relevant environments
                   stakeholders)                                                         for changes that might affect its viability
                                                                                         •actively adapt to new information it
                                                                                         receives in such a way that it also
                                                                                         influences those environments”
                                                                                         (Merrelyn Emery and Tom Devane)




© HCHLV 2007       Merrelyn Emeryand Tom Davane, “Search conference”, in Holman and Devane (eds) The Change Handbook
                                                                                                                                       4
The futures cycle



                                          Scanning




    Implementing                                        Understanding




                                         Interpreting




© HCHLV 2007
               Source: Henley Centre HeadlightVision
                                                                        5
The traditional view: command and control



             External
        environment

                                       Resources



                                            Talent




                                         Audiences

© HCHLV 2007                Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa   6
The organisation is in the heart of its environment

     External
     environment
                                  Resources




                Audiences                                    Talent




© HCHLV 2007          Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa        7
The drivers of change




© HCHLV 2007                           8
Using the framework to describe the trends

     External
     environment
                                     Resources




                    Audiences                                   Talent




© HCHLV 2007             Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa        9
Using the framework to describe the trends

     External
     environment
                                 Squeezed resources
                                 (falling disposable
                                 income)
                                 Increased push for
                                 sustainability
                                 Desire for well-being
                                 Increasingly
                                 ubiquitous
                                 technologies
                                 Increasing mobility
                                 and cultural diversity




© HCHLV 2007                                              10
Using the framework to describe the trends



                                    Rise of mix and remix
                                    (users as producers)

                                    Ageing population - but
                                    ageless

                                    Desire for self-
                                    improvement

                                    Fragmentation of leisure
                    Audiences
                                    Experiential economy
                                    (and shared experience

                                    Increasing inequalities



© HCHLV 2007                                                   11
Using the framework to analyse the trends



           Renegotiation of work - the
           fluid workplace
                                         Resources
           Digital and distributed
           organisations

           Corporatisation and
           marketisation of the arts

           Growth of philanthropy

           Museums as “knowledge
           assets” (and “the creative
           economy”)
           Increasingly contested
           knowledge

© HCHLV 2007                                               12
Using the framework to analyse the trends




                          Urbanisation of culture (the
                          rise of the city-regions)


                          Changing approaches to
                          innovation
                                                         Talent
                          Changing gender and
                          ethnic mix of the workforce


                          The artist as catalyst


© HCHLV 2007                                                      13
And by way of a reminder (see Annex for details)



    External environment                  Audience                        Resources                          Talent

Squeezed resources (falling     Rise of mix and remix (users Resources work - the
                                                               Renegotiation of                 Urbanisation of culture (the
disposable income)              as producers)                   fluid workplace                  rise of the city-regions)

Increased push for              Ageing population - but         Digital and distributed         The management of talent
sustainability                  ageless                         organisations

Desire for well-being           Desire for self-improvement     Corporatisation and             Changing gender and ethnic
                                                                marketisation of the arts       mix of the workforce

Increasingly ubiquitous         Fragmentation of leisure        Growth of philanthropy          The artist as catalyst
technologies

Increasing mobility and cultural Experiential economy (and      Museums as “knowledge
diversity                      Audiences
                                 shared experience)             assets” (and “the creative   Talent
                                                                economy”)

                                Increasing inequalities         Increasingly contested
                                                                knowledge




  © HCHLV 2007                                                                                                                 14
Some implications from the trends analysis


    • Increasingly mobile workforce
    • Gravitation towards cities seen as tolerant and outward
      looking, and having good public spaces and culture
    • The focus on the rehabilitation of urban centres as
      ‘marketable’ popular cultural venues
    • ‘Safe’ cultural choices and the predominance of corporate
      ownership can lead to the homogenising of cultural
      experiences
    • Cultural innovation often occurs in temporary, marginal areas




               Source: Henley Centre; Richard Florida, the Rise of the Creative Class; Chatterton & Hollands, Urban
© HCHLV 2008   Nightscapes: Youth Pleasures, Pleasure Spaces and Corporate Power (2003); Archis 2003; Hakim Bey
                                                                                                                      15
Five scenarios
Keeping the future in mind when managing



                                            Scanning




    Implementing                                          Understanding




                                           Interpreting




© HCHLV 2007
                 Source: Henley Centre HeadlightVision
                                                                          17
Listening to the organisation – and the environment

     External
     environment
                                 Resources




                                   “Creative
                 Users/            producer”
               Customers                                   Talent




© HCHLV 2007        Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa        18
The forum - local meeting
                                    #1: The forum
-

and resource space,
discovery, shared (social/
free) experiences, relaerning
of skills, disputed local
meanings. Likely to have a
virtual component which links
those who identify with the
area or are interested in it.




    © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
• The rich club . The
  corporate museum, the           #2: The rich club
  museum which is
  aligned with 'high
  culture' high profile
  collections and
  exhibitions. In a world
  where it seems likely
  that knowledge will be
  more contested, this
  upholds traditional
  notions of the canon.
  (Several of the new Gulf
  museums might be in
  this space)


  © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
• Splinter groups -are
  museums created                 #3: Splinter groups
  through tightly engaged
  communities of interest,
  could be purely virtual
  but may have a
  physical home for
  artefacts . In a world
  where travel is likely to
  be more difficult,
  'diaspora' museums
  would be a special
  case. Krakow’s Galicia
  museum might be an
  example.


  © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Aka the remix museum. It
takes the notion of the
                                  #4: The cut-up
'extended' workplace (in
space and time) to its
logical conclusion, and
extends it to remixed
meanings, active
reinterpretations, and
open knowledge. Likely to
be primarily virtual, but
likely to extend itself into
media and cultural
artefacts such as books
and lectures.

  © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
• The challenges of
  sustainability and              #5: Imaginarium
  resource shortages, and
  the pursuit of social well-
  being, require new
  discourses and
  worldviews. The
  imaginarium is the
  home of social and
  interpretative
  innovation - drawing on
  diverse workforce and
  users, bringing history
  into the present as a
  source both of meaning
  and skills.

  © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Instead of a conclusion
“The purpose of
         looking at the
       future is to disturb
          the present”
               (Gaston Berger)
© HCHLV 2007                     25
“There are places, there are
                                  things, that once you’ve heard
                                them, move into your future and
                                wait for you to arrive. It may take
                                    years, but sooner or later the
                                            meeting will happen”.
                                                     Russell Hoban
© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Annex: the trends in more
detail
Using the framework to describe the trends

     External
     environment
                                     Resources




                    Audiences                                   Talent




© HCHLV 2007             Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa        28
Using the framework to describe the trends



    External environment                  Audience                        Resources                          Talent

Squeezed resources (falling     Rise of mix and remix (users Resources work - the
                                                               Renegotiation of                 Urbanisation of culture (the
disposable income)              as producers)                   fluid workplace                  rise of the city-regions)

Increased push for              Ageing population - but         Digital and distributed         Changing approaches to
sustainability                  ageless                         organisations                   innovation

Desire for well-being           Desire for self-improvement     Corporatisation and             Changing gender and ethnic
                                                                marketisation of the arts       mix of the workforce

Increasingly ubiquitous         Fragmentation of leisure        Growth of philanthropy          The artist as catalyst
technologies

Increasing mobility and cultural Experiential economy (and      Museums as “knowledge
diversity                      Audiences
                                 shared experience)             assets” (and “the creative   Talent
                                                                economy”)

                                Increasing inequalities         Increasingly contested
                                                                knowledge




  © HCHLV 2007                                                                                                                 29
Using the framework to describe the trends

     External
     environment
                                 Squeezed resources
                                 (falling disposable
                                 income)
                                 Increased push for
                                 sustainability
                                 Desire for well-being
                                 Increasingly
                                 ubiquitous
                                 technologies
                                 Increasing mobility
                                 and cultural diversity




© HCHLV 2007                                              30
People believe that the government must tackle
                   climate change, and a series of sustainability-based
                                  regulation is following
                                                                  ‘Who is most responsible for tackling
                                                                           climate change?’1

                                                            Individuals                     8%    12%
           The UK Government is                             Industries/companies
          committed to protecting                           Government                                    14%
                                                            Non Government/
          the environment and to                            Non-Profit
         tackling climate change,                           organisations/
                                                            Local community              66%
       both at home and abroad.                             groups
            A Bill will be brought
       forward to make the United
                                                              The Sustainable Communities Act
       Kingdom the first country in
                                                                will work by giving increasing
          the world to introduce a
                                                                 devolved powers that local
        legally binding framework
                                                               council representatives have to
        to reduce carbon dioxide
                                                                 empower them to solve the
                   emissions
                                                                 problems within their local
          DEFRA Press Office, 2007                                 communities. One of the
                                                              measurements of sustainability is
                                                                 environmental protection2

© HCHLV 2008                  Source: 1: PCC 2007, 2: www.parliament.uk                                         31
The search for authenticity

    • The unusual is becoming more
      and more commonplace
    • The concept of the ‘authentic’
    • What is authenticity?
        − Defined origin?
          Handmade?
        − Traditional? Unique?
    • Farmers makers are one
      manifestation of consumers
      showing their support for
      individual and authentic
      products.
    • Mass-produced and easily
      replicable products and
      services are under pressure to
      engage with consumers
© HCHLV 2008                                              32
                              Source: organicfood.co.uk
Wellbeing: the physical health angle

• There has been a dramatic
                                                                                                 ‘Changes made in relation to the
  increase in the number of                                                                        amount of exercise you do:’
  overweight and obese people in
                                                                                                                 Have successfully changed:
  the UK:                                                                                 %
                                                                                                                 Have tried but failed
   − Currently one out of five adults                                                      35                       33         32
      diagnosed as clinically obese                                                                                                        31                31
                                                                                           30 29
• People are increasingly                                                                                 27
                                                                                                                          25    25
                                                                                                                                     27
                                                                                                                                                 26    26
                                                                                                                                                              25
  concerned about their physical                                                           25
                                                                                                    21
  health and fitness:                                                                      20
                                                                                                              20                            19    19
                                                                                                                                      17
   − In 2004,1 in 3 people                                                                                                                              16
      successfully changed the                                                             15

      amount of exercise that they                                                         10
      do and 1 in 5 tried but failed
   − Membership of both private                                                             5

      and public gyms has grown by                                                          0
      a quarter since 2002, climbing                                                              total         25-34     45-54      65+    Women
                                                                                                           15-24     35-44     55-64     Men
      8 per cent during last year
      alone to more than 7m people
      Physical activity plan
                                         Source: Henley Centre, PCC 2004, Financial Times, July 19, 2005 ,www.bbc.co.uk
 © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
The softer side of wellbeing

• People crave wellbeing in a time
  and energy deficit culture:
        − 52% of people agreed ‘I am
               so tired in the evenings I often don't
               have the energy to do much’
               compared with 46% in 2001
• People are increasingly retuning to
  nature as relief from the complexity
  and clamour of life:
        − There is a growing interest in seasonal
               food and the number of UK members
               of the Slow Food movement grew by
               over 900% between 1999 and 2004
• There is a discernable ‘search for
  meaning’ in people’s lives
• People’s increasingly see leisure time
  as a route to gain wellbeing and find
  sense in their lives

                                        Source: BISG Press Releases, May 2005, SlowFood, 2004 statistics
 © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
There is growing household connectedness
                         but also a continuing digital divide

    •     In 2007, nearly 15 million                                 UK residential internet connections1
          households in Great Britain (61%)
          had Internet access1
    •     84% of UK households with Internet
          access had a broadband
          connection in 2007, up from 69% in
          2006, and 85% of households have
          digital TV1


                                  • However, experiences of the new media world are
                                    often unequal, and digital exclusion remains a
                                    challenge
                                  − Ofcom has found that just 28% of people over 65
                                    have internet access1
                                  − Social group AB is more open to using the widest
                                    range of communication methods; social group
                                    DE are much less likely to want to communicate
                 4 in 5 people    are concerned about2 how the
                                    via the internet and email
               personal information about them that is held on
                   company databases is stored and used
                                      Source: 1: Ofcom 2007; 2: IIPS 2008
© HCHLV 2008                                                                                                35
The ‘always on’ society

                                                                           % agree with statement:
• Mobile phones, the blackberry
                                                                 ‘I like to be contactable on my mobile
  and increasingly empowered                                                    all the time’
  consumers are driving our 24/7                         %
  ‘always on’ culture                                    80
• Similar expectations around                                            70
  access to companies and                                70
  experiences
                                                         60
• This raises questions about
  social interaction                                     50
    − How will we choose to                              40
                                                                                              37
       interact in the future?
• Starting to see a backlash                             30
  against ‘always on’                                    20
    − Consumers against mobile
       phones on flights                                 10
    − Can/should arts venues                                 0
       provide sanctuary?                                            Age 15-19           Average adult



© HCHLV 2008              Source: OfCom 2006, PCC 2003
                                                                                                          36
Using the framework to describe the trends



                                    Rise of mix and remix
                                    (users as producers)

                                    Ageing population - but
                                    ageless

                                    Desire for self-
                                    improvement

                                    Fragmentation of leisure
                    Audiences
                                    Experiential economy
                                    (and shared experience

                                    Increasing inequalities



© HCHLV 2007                                                   37
Consumers are increasingly creating and sharing their
                              own content, particularly online


                 We are starting to
               witness the arrival of a
                 new generation of
                 bedroom auteurs:
                  movie directors,
               composers, scribblers
               and artists of all kinds


                                               Technological
                                              applications are
                                          enabling consumers to
                                              create and filter
                                          content that is relevant
                                          to them and block out
                                              that which is not




© HCHLV 2008                                                                 38
DIY media and personalisation


    • Consumers now expect to be able to
      personalise their media consumption
         − A general shift from ‘push’ media
           to ‘pull’ media
    • There has been a huge growth in the
      user generated content (UGC)
      online, facilitated by increasingly
      widespread access to broadband
    • UGC sites such as You Tube and
      Facebook have grown in popularity
      at a rapid rate
    • For traditional forms of media such as
      TV, there has been a growth in self-
      scheduling of content
    • It can be harder to reach people,
      and they want to engage
      increasingly on their own terms
               Source: Forrester 2006
© HCHLV 2008                                               39
The British population is ageing, but at the same time
                        age is no longer a key determinant of lifestyle

  35           % of UK population over
                   65 years of age                                 The UK over 50s population spend
                                                                  around £240bn every year on leisure
                                                                    and account for over 40% of all
  25                                                                     consumer spending3



  15



   5


       1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050


        55% of UK respondents, and 57% of
           those over 65, agree that is
         important to them to maintain a
                ‘youthful lifestyle’2

                                         Source: Euromonitor 2008, 2: PCC 2007, 3:
© HCHLV 2008                                   The Times, September 2006
                                                                                                        40
‘Younger’ longer


    • Traditional stereotypes of ‘old’
      are changing
    • With improving levels of
      general health and increasing
      social diversity, many will act in
      ways that defy that physical
      age
    • Celebrity culture has led to the
      mainstreaming of cosmetic            “Baby boomers have traded their right
      surgery                                 to greater wisdom, finesse, and
    • Older consumers are bigger           accumulated experiences for the right
      spenders than they used to be:                   to stay young.

            − SKIers (Spending the           And the youngsters have traded their
              Kids’ Inheritance) are         youth culture for the right to be taken
              emerging                     seriously. We used to have a generation
                                            gap, now we have a generation deal.”
                                              Lada Gorlenko, Design & Usability Consultant, IBM

© HCHLV 2008                                                                                      41
The cult of self improvement


    • Replacing the ‘bluffers’
      guide’ mentality with a sense
      that improving your own self-
      worth is a valuable way to
      spend your time
    • Accessible to everyone
        − Life coaches
        − Evening classes
        − Learning holidays
        − Growing interest in books
          and book clubs
    • Can the arts sector do more
      to capitalise on this trend?



© HCHLV 2008                                      42
The experience economy

                                                                                                   The proportion of income spent on leisure -
    • People are increasingly                                                                    including theatre, cinema, holidays, sport and
      choosing to spend more on                                                                 education fees - has doubled since 1982 from 7%
                                                                                                       to 14% in the year to March 2005 ¹
      ‘experiences’ rather than
      material goods
    • The pleasure of
      consumption is becoming
      paramount
    • Does culture count as retail
      or leisure? – or both?
       − Witness the growth of
          the museum shop
    • ‘Bite-size’ arts and culture,
      or elaborate experiences?                                                              “Consumers are often fully aware that they
    • How might an economic                                                                  are more interested in consuming aura than
                                                                                               objects, sizzle than steak, meaning than
      downturn impact the                                                                                      material.” 4
      experience economy?


© HCHLV 2008   Sources: ‘Britons spending more on leisure, less on food’ The Guardia November 2005,, ‘A report on the 1999-2000 family expenditure survey’ ONS,
                                                                                                                                                                  43
                                                                     PCC data 2004, HCHLV executive interview
Fragmentation of leisure
• Rising number of Britons taking
  regional holidays:
                                                                                No. UK residents visiting UK tourist
   − The number of Leisure trips                                                         board regions
      taken by UK citizens to the
      regional tourist boards                                                                                      1991             2001

      increased from 154 million in                                          Northumbria
                                                                                               3
                                                                                                   4
      1996 to 167 million trips in 2002                                         Cumbria        3
                                                                                                       5
• Expansion of the tourism industry                                           North West
                                                                                                                   8
                                                                                                                               14
  leads to greater diversification of                                          Yorkshire                       7
                                                                                                                         11
  leisure:                                                                                                 6
                                                                       East of England                                        13
   − People want a holiday suited                                    Heart of England                                          14
                                                                                                                                               22
      to them as individuals                                                                                   7
                                                                                 London                                             17

                         “Demand is                                             Southern                                 11
                                                                                                                              13
                                                                                                           6
                       growing in the                           South Eas England                                             13
                                                                                                                              13
                                                             South West England
                     tailor-made travel                                                    0       5               10         15
                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                         20         25
                           market”                                                                                     millions
                    Holiday company Thomson,
                         6th October 2004
                                           Source: ONS, Regional Trends 38
© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Fragmentation of leisure




                                   Rise in niche activities
                                        - Power gliding
                                           - Jet-skiing
                                    - Advanced mountain
                                        biking activities
                                    Tides of ‘fad interests’
                                     - Such as ‘all terrain
                                          boarding’




© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Widening income inequalities

                                                                                    The proportion of people not on
      Overall earnings inequalities are widening                                  housing benefit but cannot afford to
                                                                                   buy anything above the cheapest
                                                                                            10% of houses1
          The overall distribution of income has
        changed little over the last decade.  The
         poorest tenth have less than 2% of total
                         income 2


       The proportion of children in low income
      households has fallen from 34% in 1998/99
      to 30% in 2005/06. Children remain more
        likely than adults to live in low income
                      households


        Around two-fifths of people from ethnic
        minorities live in low income households,
            twice the rate for white people 2



                            Source: 1: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2005, 2: www.poverty.org.uk
© HCHLV 2008                                                                                                             46
Growing income disparity


• The growing disparity                                     The wealthiest 1% of the UK
  between the richest and                                   population hold 23% of the
  poorest in society                                             nation’s wealth
• Dramatic divisions of access
  and inequity across UK
  society                                              % share of total income by Top 10%
                                                              household           Bottom 10%
• Increasingly strong public
  awareness of the                                              1979 4.4              20
  infringement of rights and
  means of reparation                                           1990 3.2                   25
• Attracting consumers from
  ethnic minority backgrounds                                   1996 3.5                   24
  and disabled people is a key
  aim                                                           2010 3.0                        30


                                                                 10 5      0   5   10 15 20 25 30
                                                                               %
© HCHLV 2008                                                                                         47
                      Source: ONS, Households Below Average Income;
Entitlement: the return of the public

• Just as economic shares become
                                                                                                                   % share of total income by
  more unequal, there is                                                                                                  household
  compensation in the public                                                                                                       Top 10%                Bottom 10%
  realm
                                                                                                               1979 4.4                                       20
• Human Rights Act (and Freedom
  of Information) are about forms
                                                                                                                1990 3.2                                           25
  of legal and government access
• Rights of physical access to land                                                                             1996 3.5                                           24
  and buildings are increasingly
  embedded in law                                                                                               2010 3.0                                                30
• The language of ‘cultural                                                                                                                                                   %
  entitlement’ is common in the                                                                              10          5 0 5 10                        15    20       25   30
  arts

“Culture alone can give people the means better to understand and
engage with life… which can help us slay the sixth giant of modern
times – poverty of aspiration.” Tessa Jowell MP
                                  Source: ONS “Households Below Average Income” 2000/01, Report of the 2002-3 Britain Day Visits Survey, TGI BMRB 2004
© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Using the framework to analyse the trends



           Renegotiation of work - the
           fluid workplace
                                         Resources
           Digital and distributed
           organisations

           Corporatisation and
           marketisation of the arts

           Growth of philanthropy

           Museums as “knowledge
           assets” (and “the creative
           economy”)
           Increasingly contested
           knowledge

© HCHLV 2007                                               49
Increasingly fluid work structures


    • Moving from rigid to fluid
      organisational structures -
      new ways of using resources
    • Hot-desking and sharing
      other resources
    • Temporary collectives to
      fulfill specific pieces of work,
      with temporary use of
      resources
    • The rise of dynamic, short-
      term employment on a
      project basis in the creative
      industries




© HCHLV 2008                                           50
Competitive cultural funding landscape

                                                            Business cash sponsorship experienced
• Declining business investment in
                                                             no growth in real terms in 2005/06. All
  the arts and cultural sector is a
                                                           other components of business investment
  major concern
                                                              experienced a significant decrease
• The sector is facing an                                        Arts & Business Private Investment Benchmarking
  increasingly competitive funding                                                 Survey 2005/06
  landscape
• Cultural organisations in the UK
  rely heavily on one source of
  funding to support their
  operations (in most cases, public
  funding).
        − Has worked well in the past
          for many cultural
          organisations
                                                                         “…why have
       − Makes them vulnerable to
                                                          business investment figures fallen in real
        “Most arts organisations are the
          social shifts or evolution in
                                                           terms? Is this a minor blip, or part of a
       used to delivering rather more
          funding landscape
                                                             downward drift? I sense a blip…”
           than they are paid for.”                                   A&B Chief Executive, Colin Tweedy
                  John Tusa

© HCHLV 2008                         Source: Arts & Business, HCHLV
                                                                                                                   51
Networks and digital organisations

                                              Supplier    Supplier   Supplier
      • ICT and the rise of networks can
        enable organisations to move
                                                     Purchasing
        away from in-house expertise
          − But this doesn’t mean they
            always should                                             Finance

      • Careful consideration of what is                              HR
        core to the brand and its values
        before decisions are made                    Brand            Manufacture
          − Relevant for individual arts
                                                                      Marketing
            organisations, museums
          − Moving from a linear                                      Sales/Service
            structure to a series of inter-
            relationships between you,
            your suppliers, your
            customers
                                                         Customers
Source: BT
  © HCHLV 2008                                                                    52
Growth of philanthropy

           • Traditional private investment                                                       “There is much to be said for
             sources in the charity sector are                                                   seeing artists as servants of the
             rapidly changing                                                                         innovation process”
           • Growing emphasis on
             partnerships, the role of venture                                                                       John Thackara
             philanthropists and clear return on
             investment (RoI)
           • Individual giving has become a                                                   “High-income parents are enrolling their
             substantial source of fundraising                                              children in philanthropy workshops designed
             income                                                                         to teach them how to use their wealth to do
               − has the potential to become                                                 good. A new generation of philanthropists
                  the single most important                                                 are being encouraged to … consider which
                  source of funding in the future                                                 charities might benefit from their
         “There is a continuing unease about raising                                         money...demand is spiralling, with growing
            funds from the private sector. But if it is                                     numbers of wealthy individuals matched by
             faced head-on, with confidence and                                               an increasingly professional approach to
         honesty, the relationship between the giver
                                                                                                        philanthropy in Britain.”
            and the asker can be strong, positive,                                                                     The Guardian, Dec 2007
                 supportive and enjoyable.”
                                             John Tusa


     © HCHLV 2008
Source: www.mobilebristol.co.uk/flash.html               Source: Arts & Business Private Investment Benchmarking Survey 2005/06, The Guardian   53
Using the framework to analyse the trends




                          Urbanisation of culture (the
                          rise of the city-regions)


                          Changing approaches to
                          innovation
                                                         Talent
                          Changing gender and
                          ethnic mix of the workforce


                          The artist as catalyst


© HCHLV 2007                                                      54
Urbanisation of culture

• Competition:
          − Liverpool won the competition to be
            European Capital of Culture 2008.
          − It is estimated that the Culture title
            could net Liverpool an extra 1.7
            million visitors to the city.
• Cultural developments and a
  revived interest in architecture:
          − The Baltic Flour Mills and the Sage,
            Newcastle Gateshead
          − Millenuium Stadium, Cardiff
          − Imperial War Museum North and
            Urbis, Manchester
          − The Lowry Centre, Salford
•       Increasing interest in the ‘city
       region’ as a driver of regional
       success
          − Urban quality of life regarded as
                 economic driver

                                          Source: ERM Economics 2004, www.bbc.co.uk
    © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
People crave a distinctive identity for their
                                  urban environment
• A backlash against ‘clone towns’:
   − Four out of 10 of the nation's high
     streets are "clone towns", according
     to research conducted by the New
     Economics Foundation.
   − In June 2005 Exeter was shamed as
     the greatest clone high street in the
     country


                                                                                         “Just as farmers’ markets
                                                                                        and specialist retailers are
                                                                                          popping up all over the
                                                                                       place…there is still room for
                                                                                       switched-on, independent
                                                                                               booksellers.”



                                Source: The Bookseller, Novmber 2004, http://www.thebookcase.co.uk, Guardian, July 2000, www.countrybookshop.co.uk
© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
The management of talent


    • The importance of horizontal,
      non-hierarchical structures
      and fluid organisational
      processes
    • Organisational innovation
      needs clear principles
    • The ‘holarchic’ organisation -
      each fragment of the
      organisation reflecting the          “You can’t socially re-
      whole                                engineer these systems
                                        without understanding them
                                       intimately. You need to know
                                        what it’s like to struggle with
                                         the pressures at the grass
                                                     roots”.
                                            Prof Henry Mintzberg

© HCHLV 2008                                                              57
The ‘corporatisation’ of the arts

                                                       “There’s no excuse for amateurism any
    • Increasing professionalism of                    more, no room for those who shy at the
      the arts                                        thought that the arts might, indeed, be a
                                                                     business.”
    • Changing expectations from
      funders                                                        John Tusa

    • Wider social trends such as
      the importance attached to
      formal qualifications
                                                                    Managers
    • Emphasis on management                                             +       +
      skills at the expense of
      professional expertise
               − A trend seen in both the public               Targets           Budgets
                 sector and the private sector
               − A ‘site of struggle’ which creates
                 permanent organisational
                 tensions                                                _       _

                                                                  Professionals
© HCHLV 2008                                                                                      58
Renegotiation of the workplace

                                                                                            Change in employment status, 1971-2005
    • Change from fixed
                                                                                            Full time         Part time           Self employed
      contracts to more
                                                                                     000s
      negotiated relationships
                                                                                        5
                                                                                                                                      4173
    • Large rise in part-time and
                                                                                        4
      temporary workers
                                                                                                                     2792
    • Employees demand                                                                  3

      greater flexibility and work/                                                     2        1381                                         1405
      life balance                                                                                      776
                                                                                                              1046
                                                                                                                            629
                                                                                        1
    • Office structures are
      moving towards ‘club’                                                             0

      environments                                                                     -1
               − Space for meeting, thinking
                                                                                       -2                                         -1415
                 etc
               − Leisure facilities, shops, dry-                                       -3    -2461
                 cleaning, crèche facilities                                                         Male            Female               Total



© HCHLV 2008
                             Source: ONS; Henley Centre, PCC 2001; DTI projections                                                                   59
Changing gender balance of the workplace

                                                                                                                           % of UK workforce
    • More women are working than
      ever before                                                                                                                   Male           Female
                                                                                                        60 57
               − Although the number of women
                 working in “cultural industries” has                                                   55
                                                                                                                                      51                 50   50
                                                                                                                                               49
                 increased in recent years, they still                                                  50
                 make up only 36% of the cultural                                                       45               43
                 industries’ workforce.
                                                                                                        40
    • The gender pay gap has been                                                                       35
      decreasing steadily since the                                                                     30
      1975 Equal Pay Act, but there is                                                                  25
      still a significant difference                                                                    20
      between men and women’s                                                                                      1982                   1992            2002

      salaries
               − The full-time pay gap has closed
                 considerably from 29.5% in 1975,
                 to 17.2% in 2006


© HCHLV 2008    Source: EEDA “Equality in focus”; GEM Report UK 2002; Nomis, The Gender Pay Gap report 2001 (Women and Equality Unit), The Independent
                Theatre Council Report 2001, Facts about Men and Women in Great Britain – A report by the Equailty Commission 2006                                 60
Increasingly diverse workforce?

•    There has been an increase in the                                                    Over 600,000 people have
     number of migrant workers,                                                         come to work in the UK from
     particularly from EU countries post                                               the eight nations which joined
     ascension                                                                           the European Union in 2004
•    4% of the arts workforce is from a
     minority ethnic group. This broadly                                             “There is little diversity among
     reflects the proportion of the national                                       entrants to the museum workforce.
     workforce from an ethnic minority                                              Museums want more people from
     group (5%)
                                                                                   minority-ethnic backgrounds, more
       − Certain cultural groups are under-                                         people from poorer backgrounds,
         represented in the arts. Indians                                           more disabled people – and more
         make up 21% of the total ethnic                                              men…There is work to do to
         minority workforce but only 19% of                                       promote museum careers to a wider
         those working in the arts
                                                                                   range of potential entrants, but this
       − Black and ethnic minorities have                                         needs to be supported by accessible
         very little decision-making input                                                    entry routes.”
         into performance companies.                                                    The Tomorrow People: Entry to the museum
         Only 4% of Artistic Directors and 6%                                              workforce, Maurice Davies, Feb 2007
         of Board Members working in the
         theatre industry are black.
© HCHLV 2008      Source: ONS Population and Migration; DIW Institute, BBC News August 2006 , Independent Theatre Council Report 2001   61
The artist as catalyst


    • Traditional concepts of the
      artist
    • The importance of individuals
      and artistic organisations as
      creative catalysts
    • Organisational, facilitative
      and financial strands of the
      creative process
    • The role of creative catalyst
      in the growing integration of
      arts initiatives with wider
      social initiatives




© HCHLV 2008                                     62
The rise of the city region


    • Increasingly mobile workforce
    • Gravitation towards cities seen as
      tolerant and outward looking,
      and having good public spaces
      and culture
    • The focus on the rehabilitation of
      urban centres as ‘marketable’
      popular cultural venues                                                                                               “Historic, residual and
    • ‘Safe’ cultural choices and the                                                                                 alternative forms of nightlife
      predominance of corporate                                                                                                    are increasingly
      ownership can lead to the                                                                                              marginalised… over-
      homogenising of cultural                                                                                                   regulated till they
      experiences                                                                                                      disappear… or bought out
                                                                                                                        under the weight of urban
    • Cultural innovation often occurs                                                                                     renewal and gentrified
      in temporary, marginal areas                                                                                                          leisure”
               Source: Henley Centre; Richard Florida, the Rise of the Creative Class; Chatterton & Hollands, Urban
© HCHLV 2008   Nightscapes: Youth Pleasures, Pleasure Spaces and Corporate Power (2003); Archis 2003; Hakim Bey
                                                                                                                                                   63
Increasing diversity of UK society

• The ethnic minority and foreign
  born population in the UK is
  growing
    − Between 1991-2001, the
      ethnic minority population
      grew by 53% from 3 million
      to 4.6 million people¹
    − In 2001, 4.9 million (8.3 per
      cent) of the total
      population of the UK were
      born overseas. This is more
                                                The non-White population: by ethnic group, April 2001, UK
      than double the 2.1 million
      (4.2 per cent) in 1951
• Although there is regional
  concentration of BMEs,
  trended data indicates
  segregation is not a feature in
  Britain


                       Source: UK census 2001
© HCHLV 2008                                                                                                64
In summary



    External environment                  Audience                        Resources                          Talent

Squeezed resources (falling     Rise of mix and remix (users Resources work - the
                                                               Renegotiation of                 Urbanisation of culture (the
disposable income)              as producers)                   fluid workplace                  rise of the city-regions)

Increased push for              Ageing population - but         Digital and distributed         The management of talent
sustainability                  ageless                         organisations

Desire for well-being           Desire for self-improvement     Corporatisation and             Changing gender and ethnic
                                                                marketisation of the arts       mix of the workforce

Increasingly ubiquitous         Fragmentation of leisure        Growth of philanthropy          The artist as catalyst
technologies

Increasing mobility and cultural Experiential economy (and      Museums as “knowledge
diversity                      Audiences
                                 shared experience)             assets” (and “the creative   Talent
                                                                economy”)

                                Increasing inequalities         Increasingly contested
                                                                knowledge




  © HCHLV 2007                                                                                                                 65
Creating better futures




      Andrew.curry@hchlv.com




6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY
    T +44 (0) 20 7955 1800 F +44 (0) 20 7955 1900
   betterfutures@hchlv.com W www.hchlv.com
         London New York Delhi Mumbai

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Museums Long Now 160608 Ac

  • 1. The futures of the museum Museum of the Long Now June 02008 Andrew Curry Director, Henley Centre HeadlightVision 1
  • 2. •Why futures work •The drivers of change •Some emerging scenarios •More detail on the trends © HCHLV 2007 2
  • 3. Why do we do futures work The pragmatic reason Because we want to have agile and responsive organisations which can manage in uncertain environments and are able to identify opportunities and risks early. The theoretical reason “We are all open systems theorists now” 3 © HCHLV 2007 3
  • 4. Organisations as open systems Wider social environment (a field of value shifts as people change their world) Task environment (e.g. competitors, regulatory agencies, changing user base, technology changes System (e.g corporation, community, trade “For a system to be viable over time, it association, or needs to: network of •constantly scan relevant environments stakeholders) for changes that might affect its viability •actively adapt to new information it receives in such a way that it also influences those environments” (Merrelyn Emery and Tom Devane) © HCHLV 2007 Merrelyn Emeryand Tom Davane, “Search conference”, in Holman and Devane (eds) The Change Handbook 4
  • 5. The futures cycle Scanning Implementing Understanding Interpreting © HCHLV 2007 Source: Henley Centre HeadlightVision 5
  • 6. The traditional view: command and control External environment Resources Talent Audiences © HCHLV 2007 Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa 6
  • 7. The organisation is in the heart of its environment External environment Resources Audiences Talent © HCHLV 2007 Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa 7
  • 8. The drivers of change © HCHLV 2007 8
  • 9. Using the framework to describe the trends External environment Resources Audiences Talent © HCHLV 2007 Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa 9
  • 10. Using the framework to describe the trends External environment Squeezed resources (falling disposable income) Increased push for sustainability Desire for well-being Increasingly ubiquitous technologies Increasing mobility and cultural diversity © HCHLV 2007 10
  • 11. Using the framework to describe the trends Rise of mix and remix (users as producers) Ageing population - but ageless Desire for self- improvement Fragmentation of leisure Audiences Experiential economy (and shared experience Increasing inequalities © HCHLV 2007 11
  • 12. Using the framework to analyse the trends Renegotiation of work - the fluid workplace Resources Digital and distributed organisations Corporatisation and marketisation of the arts Growth of philanthropy Museums as “knowledge assets” (and “the creative economy”) Increasingly contested knowledge © HCHLV 2007 12
  • 13. Using the framework to analyse the trends Urbanisation of culture (the rise of the city-regions) Changing approaches to innovation Talent Changing gender and ethnic mix of the workforce The artist as catalyst © HCHLV 2007 13
  • 14. And by way of a reminder (see Annex for details) External environment Audience Resources Talent Squeezed resources (falling Rise of mix and remix (users Resources work - the Renegotiation of Urbanisation of culture (the disposable income) as producers) fluid workplace rise of the city-regions) Increased push for Ageing population - but Digital and distributed The management of talent sustainability ageless organisations Desire for well-being Desire for self-improvement Corporatisation and Changing gender and ethnic marketisation of the arts mix of the workforce Increasingly ubiquitous Fragmentation of leisure Growth of philanthropy The artist as catalyst technologies Increasing mobility and cultural Experiential economy (and Museums as “knowledge diversity Audiences shared experience) assets” (and “the creative Talent economy”) Increasing inequalities Increasingly contested knowledge © HCHLV 2007 14
  • 15. Some implications from the trends analysis • Increasingly mobile workforce • Gravitation towards cities seen as tolerant and outward looking, and having good public spaces and culture • The focus on the rehabilitation of urban centres as ‘marketable’ popular cultural venues • ‘Safe’ cultural choices and the predominance of corporate ownership can lead to the homogenising of cultural experiences • Cultural innovation often occurs in temporary, marginal areas Source: Henley Centre; Richard Florida, the Rise of the Creative Class; Chatterton & Hollands, Urban © HCHLV 2008 Nightscapes: Youth Pleasures, Pleasure Spaces and Corporate Power (2003); Archis 2003; Hakim Bey 15
  • 17. Keeping the future in mind when managing Scanning Implementing Understanding Interpreting © HCHLV 2007 Source: Henley Centre HeadlightVision 17
  • 18. Listening to the organisation – and the environment External environment Resources “Creative Users/ producer” Customers Talent © HCHLV 2007 Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa 18
  • 19. The forum - local meeting #1: The forum - and resource space, discovery, shared (social/ free) experiences, relaerning of skills, disputed local meanings. Likely to have a virtual component which links those who identify with the area or are interested in it. © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 20. • The rich club . The corporate museum, the #2: The rich club museum which is aligned with 'high culture' high profile collections and exhibitions. In a world where it seems likely that knowledge will be more contested, this upholds traditional notions of the canon. (Several of the new Gulf museums might be in this space) © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 21. • Splinter groups -are museums created #3: Splinter groups through tightly engaged communities of interest, could be purely virtual but may have a physical home for artefacts . In a world where travel is likely to be more difficult, 'diaspora' museums would be a special case. Krakow’s Galicia museum might be an example. © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 22. Aka the remix museum. It takes the notion of the #4: The cut-up 'extended' workplace (in space and time) to its logical conclusion, and extends it to remixed meanings, active reinterpretations, and open knowledge. Likely to be primarily virtual, but likely to extend itself into media and cultural artefacts such as books and lectures. © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 23. • The challenges of sustainability and #5: Imaginarium resource shortages, and the pursuit of social well- being, require new discourses and worldviews. The imaginarium is the home of social and interpretative innovation - drawing on diverse workforce and users, bringing history into the present as a source both of meaning and skills. © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 24. Instead of a conclusion
  • 25. “The purpose of looking at the future is to disturb the present” (Gaston Berger) © HCHLV 2007 25
  • 26. “There are places, there are things, that once you’ve heard them, move into your future and wait for you to arrive. It may take years, but sooner or later the meeting will happen”. Russell Hoban © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 27. Annex: the trends in more detail
  • 28. Using the framework to describe the trends External environment Resources Audiences Talent © HCHLV 2007 Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa 28
  • 29. Using the framework to describe the trends External environment Audience Resources Talent Squeezed resources (falling Rise of mix and remix (users Resources work - the Renegotiation of Urbanisation of culture (the disposable income) as producers) fluid workplace rise of the city-regions) Increased push for Ageing population - but Digital and distributed Changing approaches to sustainability ageless organisations innovation Desire for well-being Desire for self-improvement Corporatisation and Changing gender and ethnic marketisation of the arts mix of the workforce Increasingly ubiquitous Fragmentation of leisure Growth of philanthropy The artist as catalyst technologies Increasing mobility and cultural Experiential economy (and Museums as “knowledge diversity Audiences shared experience) assets” (and “the creative Talent economy”) Increasing inequalities Increasingly contested knowledge © HCHLV 2007 29
  • 30. Using the framework to describe the trends External environment Squeezed resources (falling disposable income) Increased push for sustainability Desire for well-being Increasingly ubiquitous technologies Increasing mobility and cultural diversity © HCHLV 2007 30
  • 31. People believe that the government must tackle climate change, and a series of sustainability-based regulation is following ‘Who is most responsible for tackling climate change?’1 Individuals 8% 12% The UK Government is Industries/companies committed to protecting Government 14% Non Government/ the environment and to Non-Profit tackling climate change, organisations/ Local community 66% both at home and abroad. groups A Bill will be brought forward to make the United The Sustainable Communities Act Kingdom the first country in will work by giving increasing the world to introduce a devolved powers that local legally binding framework council representatives have to to reduce carbon dioxide empower them to solve the emissions problems within their local DEFRA Press Office, 2007 communities. One of the measurements of sustainability is environmental protection2 © HCHLV 2008 Source: 1: PCC 2007, 2: www.parliament.uk 31
  • 32. The search for authenticity • The unusual is becoming more and more commonplace • The concept of the ‘authentic’ • What is authenticity? − Defined origin? Handmade? − Traditional? Unique? • Farmers makers are one manifestation of consumers showing their support for individual and authentic products. • Mass-produced and easily replicable products and services are under pressure to engage with consumers © HCHLV 2008 32 Source: organicfood.co.uk
  • 33. Wellbeing: the physical health angle • There has been a dramatic ‘Changes made in relation to the increase in the number of amount of exercise you do:’ overweight and obese people in Have successfully changed: the UK: % Have tried but failed − Currently one out of five adults 35 33 32 diagnosed as clinically obese 31 31 30 29 • People are increasingly 27 25 25 27 26 26 25 concerned about their physical 25 21 health and fitness: 20 20 19 19 17 − In 2004,1 in 3 people 16 successfully changed the 15 amount of exercise that they 10 do and 1 in 5 tried but failed − Membership of both private 5 and public gyms has grown by 0 a quarter since 2002, climbing total 25-34 45-54 65+ Women 15-24 35-44 55-64 Men 8 per cent during last year alone to more than 7m people Physical activity plan Source: Henley Centre, PCC 2004, Financial Times, July 19, 2005 ,www.bbc.co.uk © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 34. The softer side of wellbeing • People crave wellbeing in a time and energy deficit culture: − 52% of people agreed ‘I am so tired in the evenings I often don't have the energy to do much’ compared with 46% in 2001 • People are increasingly retuning to nature as relief from the complexity and clamour of life: − There is a growing interest in seasonal food and the number of UK members of the Slow Food movement grew by over 900% between 1999 and 2004 • There is a discernable ‘search for meaning’ in people’s lives • People’s increasingly see leisure time as a route to gain wellbeing and find sense in their lives Source: BISG Press Releases, May 2005, SlowFood, 2004 statistics © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 35. There is growing household connectedness but also a continuing digital divide • In 2007, nearly 15 million UK residential internet connections1 households in Great Britain (61%) had Internet access1 • 84% of UK households with Internet access had a broadband connection in 2007, up from 69% in 2006, and 85% of households have digital TV1 • However, experiences of the new media world are often unequal, and digital exclusion remains a challenge − Ofcom has found that just 28% of people over 65 have internet access1 − Social group AB is more open to using the widest range of communication methods; social group DE are much less likely to want to communicate 4 in 5 people are concerned about2 how the via the internet and email personal information about them that is held on company databases is stored and used Source: 1: Ofcom 2007; 2: IIPS 2008 © HCHLV 2008 35
  • 36. The ‘always on’ society % agree with statement: • Mobile phones, the blackberry ‘I like to be contactable on my mobile and increasingly empowered all the time’ consumers are driving our 24/7 % ‘always on’ culture 80 • Similar expectations around 70 access to companies and 70 experiences 60 • This raises questions about social interaction 50 − How will we choose to 40 37 interact in the future? • Starting to see a backlash 30 against ‘always on’ 20 − Consumers against mobile phones on flights 10 − Can/should arts venues 0 provide sanctuary? Age 15-19 Average adult © HCHLV 2008 Source: OfCom 2006, PCC 2003 36
  • 37. Using the framework to describe the trends Rise of mix and remix (users as producers) Ageing population - but ageless Desire for self- improvement Fragmentation of leisure Audiences Experiential economy (and shared experience Increasing inequalities © HCHLV 2007 37
  • 38. Consumers are increasingly creating and sharing their own content, particularly online We are starting to witness the arrival of a new generation of bedroom auteurs: movie directors, composers, scribblers and artists of all kinds Technological applications are enabling consumers to create and filter content that is relevant to them and block out that which is not © HCHLV 2008 38
  • 39. DIY media and personalisation • Consumers now expect to be able to personalise their media consumption − A general shift from ‘push’ media to ‘pull’ media • There has been a huge growth in the user generated content (UGC) online, facilitated by increasingly widespread access to broadband • UGC sites such as You Tube and Facebook have grown in popularity at a rapid rate • For traditional forms of media such as TV, there has been a growth in self- scheduling of content • It can be harder to reach people, and they want to engage increasingly on their own terms Source: Forrester 2006 © HCHLV 2008 39
  • 40. The British population is ageing, but at the same time age is no longer a key determinant of lifestyle 35 % of UK population over 65 years of age The UK over 50s population spend around £240bn every year on leisure and account for over 40% of all 25 consumer spending3 15 5 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 55% of UK respondents, and 57% of those over 65, agree that is important to them to maintain a ‘youthful lifestyle’2 Source: Euromonitor 2008, 2: PCC 2007, 3: © HCHLV 2008 The Times, September 2006 40
  • 41. ‘Younger’ longer • Traditional stereotypes of ‘old’ are changing • With improving levels of general health and increasing social diversity, many will act in ways that defy that physical age • Celebrity culture has led to the mainstreaming of cosmetic “Baby boomers have traded their right surgery to greater wisdom, finesse, and • Older consumers are bigger accumulated experiences for the right spenders than they used to be: to stay young. − SKIers (Spending the And the youngsters have traded their Kids’ Inheritance) are youth culture for the right to be taken emerging seriously. We used to have a generation gap, now we have a generation deal.” Lada Gorlenko, Design & Usability Consultant, IBM © HCHLV 2008 41
  • 42. The cult of self improvement • Replacing the ‘bluffers’ guide’ mentality with a sense that improving your own self- worth is a valuable way to spend your time • Accessible to everyone − Life coaches − Evening classes − Learning holidays − Growing interest in books and book clubs • Can the arts sector do more to capitalise on this trend? © HCHLV 2008 42
  • 43. The experience economy The proportion of income spent on leisure - • People are increasingly including theatre, cinema, holidays, sport and choosing to spend more on education fees - has doubled since 1982 from 7% to 14% in the year to March 2005 ¹ ‘experiences’ rather than material goods • The pleasure of consumption is becoming paramount • Does culture count as retail or leisure? – or both? − Witness the growth of the museum shop • ‘Bite-size’ arts and culture, or elaborate experiences? “Consumers are often fully aware that they • How might an economic are more interested in consuming aura than objects, sizzle than steak, meaning than downturn impact the material.” 4 experience economy? © HCHLV 2008 Sources: ‘Britons spending more on leisure, less on food’ The Guardia November 2005,, ‘A report on the 1999-2000 family expenditure survey’ ONS, 43 PCC data 2004, HCHLV executive interview
  • 44. Fragmentation of leisure • Rising number of Britons taking regional holidays: No. UK residents visiting UK tourist − The number of Leisure trips board regions taken by UK citizens to the regional tourist boards 1991 2001 increased from 154 million in Northumbria 3 4 1996 to 167 million trips in 2002 Cumbria 3 5 • Expansion of the tourism industry North West 8 14 leads to greater diversification of Yorkshire 7 11 leisure: 6 East of England 13 − People want a holiday suited Heart of England 14 22 to them as individuals 7 London 17 “Demand is Southern 11 13 6 growing in the South Eas England 13 13 South West England tailor-made travel 0 5 10 15 20 20 25 market” millions Holiday company Thomson, 6th October 2004 Source: ONS, Regional Trends 38 © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 45. Fragmentation of leisure Rise in niche activities - Power gliding - Jet-skiing - Advanced mountain biking activities Tides of ‘fad interests’ - Such as ‘all terrain boarding’ © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 46. Widening income inequalities The proportion of people not on Overall earnings inequalities are widening housing benefit but cannot afford to buy anything above the cheapest 10% of houses1 The overall distribution of income has changed little over the last decade.  The poorest tenth have less than 2% of total income 2 The proportion of children in low income households has fallen from 34% in 1998/99 to 30% in 2005/06. Children remain more likely than adults to live in low income households Around two-fifths of people from ethnic minorities live in low income households, twice the rate for white people 2 Source: 1: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2005, 2: www.poverty.org.uk © HCHLV 2008 46
  • 47. Growing income disparity • The growing disparity The wealthiest 1% of the UK between the richest and population hold 23% of the poorest in society nation’s wealth • Dramatic divisions of access and inequity across UK society % share of total income by Top 10% household Bottom 10% • Increasingly strong public awareness of the 1979 4.4 20 infringement of rights and means of reparation 1990 3.2 25 • Attracting consumers from ethnic minority backgrounds 1996 3.5 24 and disabled people is a key aim 2010 3.0 30 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % © HCHLV 2008 47 Source: ONS, Households Below Average Income;
  • 48. Entitlement: the return of the public • Just as economic shares become % share of total income by more unequal, there is household compensation in the public Top 10% Bottom 10% realm 1979 4.4 20 • Human Rights Act (and Freedom of Information) are about forms 1990 3.2 25 of legal and government access • Rights of physical access to land 1996 3.5 24 and buildings are increasingly embedded in law 2010 3.0 30 • The language of ‘cultural % entitlement’ is common in the 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 arts “Culture alone can give people the means better to understand and engage with life… which can help us slay the sixth giant of modern times – poverty of aspiration.” Tessa Jowell MP Source: ONS “Households Below Average Income” 2000/01, Report of the 2002-3 Britain Day Visits Survey, TGI BMRB 2004 © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 49. Using the framework to analyse the trends Renegotiation of work - the fluid workplace Resources Digital and distributed organisations Corporatisation and marketisation of the arts Growth of philanthropy Museums as “knowledge assets” (and “the creative economy”) Increasingly contested knowledge © HCHLV 2007 49
  • 50. Increasingly fluid work structures • Moving from rigid to fluid organisational structures - new ways of using resources • Hot-desking and sharing other resources • Temporary collectives to fulfill specific pieces of work, with temporary use of resources • The rise of dynamic, short- term employment on a project basis in the creative industries © HCHLV 2008 50
  • 51. Competitive cultural funding landscape Business cash sponsorship experienced • Declining business investment in no growth in real terms in 2005/06. All the arts and cultural sector is a other components of business investment major concern experienced a significant decrease • The sector is facing an Arts & Business Private Investment Benchmarking increasingly competitive funding Survey 2005/06 landscape • Cultural organisations in the UK rely heavily on one source of funding to support their operations (in most cases, public funding). − Has worked well in the past for many cultural organisations “…why have − Makes them vulnerable to business investment figures fallen in real “Most arts organisations are the social shifts or evolution in terms? Is this a minor blip, or part of a used to delivering rather more funding landscape downward drift? I sense a blip…” than they are paid for.” A&B Chief Executive, Colin Tweedy John Tusa © HCHLV 2008 Source: Arts & Business, HCHLV 51
  • 52. Networks and digital organisations Supplier Supplier Supplier • ICT and the rise of networks can enable organisations to move Purchasing away from in-house expertise − But this doesn’t mean they always should Finance • Careful consideration of what is HR core to the brand and its values before decisions are made Brand Manufacture − Relevant for individual arts Marketing organisations, museums − Moving from a linear Sales/Service structure to a series of inter- relationships between you, your suppliers, your customers Customers Source: BT © HCHLV 2008 52
  • 53. Growth of philanthropy • Traditional private investment “There is much to be said for sources in the charity sector are seeing artists as servants of the rapidly changing innovation process” • Growing emphasis on partnerships, the role of venture John Thackara philanthropists and clear return on investment (RoI) • Individual giving has become a “High-income parents are enrolling their substantial source of fundraising children in philanthropy workshops designed income to teach them how to use their wealth to do − has the potential to become good. A new generation of philanthropists the single most important are being encouraged to … consider which source of funding in the future charities might benefit from their “There is a continuing unease about raising money...demand is spiralling, with growing funds from the private sector. But if it is numbers of wealthy individuals matched by faced head-on, with confidence and an increasingly professional approach to honesty, the relationship between the giver philanthropy in Britain.” and the asker can be strong, positive, The Guardian, Dec 2007 supportive and enjoyable.” John Tusa © HCHLV 2008 Source: www.mobilebristol.co.uk/flash.html Source: Arts & Business Private Investment Benchmarking Survey 2005/06, The Guardian 53
  • 54. Using the framework to analyse the trends Urbanisation of culture (the rise of the city-regions) Changing approaches to innovation Talent Changing gender and ethnic mix of the workforce The artist as catalyst © HCHLV 2007 54
  • 55. Urbanisation of culture • Competition: − Liverpool won the competition to be European Capital of Culture 2008. − It is estimated that the Culture title could net Liverpool an extra 1.7 million visitors to the city. • Cultural developments and a revived interest in architecture: − The Baltic Flour Mills and the Sage, Newcastle Gateshead − Millenuium Stadium, Cardiff − Imperial War Museum North and Urbis, Manchester − The Lowry Centre, Salford • Increasing interest in the ‘city region’ as a driver of regional success − Urban quality of life regarded as economic driver Source: ERM Economics 2004, www.bbc.co.uk © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 56. People crave a distinctive identity for their urban environment • A backlash against ‘clone towns’: − Four out of 10 of the nation's high streets are "clone towns", according to research conducted by the New Economics Foundation. − In June 2005 Exeter was shamed as the greatest clone high street in the country “Just as farmers’ markets and specialist retailers are popping up all over the place…there is still room for switched-on, independent booksellers.” Source: The Bookseller, Novmber 2004, http://www.thebookcase.co.uk, Guardian, July 2000, www.countrybookshop.co.uk © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
  • 57. The management of talent • The importance of horizontal, non-hierarchical structures and fluid organisational processes • Organisational innovation needs clear principles • The ‘holarchic’ organisation - each fragment of the organisation reflecting the “You can’t socially re- whole engineer these systems without understanding them intimately. You need to know what it’s like to struggle with the pressures at the grass roots”. Prof Henry Mintzberg © HCHLV 2008 57
  • 58. The ‘corporatisation’ of the arts “There’s no excuse for amateurism any • Increasing professionalism of more, no room for those who shy at the the arts thought that the arts might, indeed, be a business.” • Changing expectations from funders John Tusa • Wider social trends such as the importance attached to formal qualifications Managers • Emphasis on management + + skills at the expense of professional expertise − A trend seen in both the public Targets Budgets sector and the private sector − A ‘site of struggle’ which creates permanent organisational tensions _ _ Professionals © HCHLV 2008 58
  • 59. Renegotiation of the workplace Change in employment status, 1971-2005 • Change from fixed Full time Part time Self employed contracts to more 000s negotiated relationships 5 4173 • Large rise in part-time and 4 temporary workers 2792 • Employees demand 3 greater flexibility and work/ 2 1381 1405 life balance 776 1046 629 1 • Office structures are moving towards ‘club’ 0 environments -1 − Space for meeting, thinking -2 -1415 etc − Leisure facilities, shops, dry- -3 -2461 cleaning, crèche facilities Male Female Total © HCHLV 2008 Source: ONS; Henley Centre, PCC 2001; DTI projections 59
  • 60. Changing gender balance of the workplace % of UK workforce • More women are working than ever before Male Female 60 57 − Although the number of women working in “cultural industries” has 55 51 50 50 49 increased in recent years, they still 50 make up only 36% of the cultural 45 43 industries’ workforce. 40 • The gender pay gap has been 35 decreasing steadily since the 30 1975 Equal Pay Act, but there is 25 still a significant difference 20 between men and women’s 1982 1992 2002 salaries − The full-time pay gap has closed considerably from 29.5% in 1975, to 17.2% in 2006 © HCHLV 2008 Source: EEDA “Equality in focus”; GEM Report UK 2002; Nomis, The Gender Pay Gap report 2001 (Women and Equality Unit), The Independent Theatre Council Report 2001, Facts about Men and Women in Great Britain – A report by the Equailty Commission 2006 60
  • 61. Increasingly diverse workforce? • There has been an increase in the Over 600,000 people have number of migrant workers, come to work in the UK from particularly from EU countries post the eight nations which joined ascension the European Union in 2004 • 4% of the arts workforce is from a minority ethnic group. This broadly “There is little diversity among reflects the proportion of the national entrants to the museum workforce. workforce from an ethnic minority Museums want more people from group (5%) minority-ethnic backgrounds, more − Certain cultural groups are under- people from poorer backgrounds, represented in the arts. Indians more disabled people – and more make up 21% of the total ethnic men…There is work to do to minority workforce but only 19% of promote museum careers to a wider those working in the arts range of potential entrants, but this − Black and ethnic minorities have needs to be supported by accessible very little decision-making input entry routes.” into performance companies. The Tomorrow People: Entry to the museum Only 4% of Artistic Directors and 6% workforce, Maurice Davies, Feb 2007 of Board Members working in the theatre industry are black. © HCHLV 2008 Source: ONS Population and Migration; DIW Institute, BBC News August 2006 , Independent Theatre Council Report 2001 61
  • 62. The artist as catalyst • Traditional concepts of the artist • The importance of individuals and artistic organisations as creative catalysts • Organisational, facilitative and financial strands of the creative process • The role of creative catalyst in the growing integration of arts initiatives with wider social initiatives © HCHLV 2008 62
  • 63. The rise of the city region • Increasingly mobile workforce • Gravitation towards cities seen as tolerant and outward looking, and having good public spaces and culture • The focus on the rehabilitation of urban centres as ‘marketable’ popular cultural venues “Historic, residual and • ‘Safe’ cultural choices and the alternative forms of nightlife predominance of corporate are increasingly ownership can lead to the marginalised… over- homogenising of cultural regulated till they experiences disappear… or bought out under the weight of urban • Cultural innovation often occurs renewal and gentrified in temporary, marginal areas leisure” Source: Henley Centre; Richard Florida, the Rise of the Creative Class; Chatterton & Hollands, Urban © HCHLV 2008 Nightscapes: Youth Pleasures, Pleasure Spaces and Corporate Power (2003); Archis 2003; Hakim Bey 63
  • 64. Increasing diversity of UK society • The ethnic minority and foreign born population in the UK is growing − Between 1991-2001, the ethnic minority population grew by 53% from 3 million to 4.6 million people¹ − In 2001, 4.9 million (8.3 per cent) of the total population of the UK were born overseas. This is more The non-White population: by ethnic group, April 2001, UK than double the 2.1 million (4.2 per cent) in 1951 • Although there is regional concentration of BMEs, trended data indicates segregation is not a feature in Britain Source: UK census 2001 © HCHLV 2008 64
  • 65. In summary External environment Audience Resources Talent Squeezed resources (falling Rise of mix and remix (users Resources work - the Renegotiation of Urbanisation of culture (the disposable income) as producers) fluid workplace rise of the city-regions) Increased push for Ageing population - but Digital and distributed The management of talent sustainability ageless organisations Desire for well-being Desire for self-improvement Corporatisation and Changing gender and ethnic marketisation of the arts mix of the workforce Increasingly ubiquitous Fragmentation of leisure Growth of philanthropy The artist as catalyst technologies Increasing mobility and cultural Experiential economy (and Museums as “knowledge diversity Audiences shared experience) assets” (and “the creative Talent economy”) Increasing inequalities Increasingly contested knowledge © HCHLV 2007 65
  • 66. Creating better futures Andrew.curry@hchlv.com 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY T +44 (0) 20 7955 1800 F +44 (0) 20 7955 1900 betterfutures@hchlv.com W www.hchlv.com London New York Delhi Mumbai