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Andreas Kausgård Christensen,
Økonomisk Institute
CSS
Effects of Informal Caregiving on
Labour-Market Outcomes among
European citizens aged 50+
4
Motivation/Aim of project
Theoretical framework
Empirical strategy
Results
Conclusion
Discussion
Agenda
Aim of the project
• The aim of this master thesis is to estimate the relationship between
informal caregiving and the labour-market.
• The overall expectation was to identify a negative relationship, that can
explain why people giving care have a lower labour-market participation
• However, when accounting for an intensive caregiving margin in the
model, the effect is expected to be less intensive and maybe non-existent.
• Why is this thesis relevant?
08-12-2016 3
Informal caregiving can play an
important role in the realisation of an
effect home care and welfare state!
However, meeting the care needs of
relatives can have an impact on the
labour-market!
“
What is the
Causal Effect
of Informal Caregiving
on Labour-Market Outcomes
Q1
Is
Informal Caregiving decision
Endogenous or Exogenous
Q2
What is
the effect of an
elderly parent passing away
Q3
Theoretical framework
Theoretical Framework
• Labour-market supply and informal caregiving
• Utility function
𝑈𝑖 = 𝑓 𝐶𝑖) + 𝑣(𝐿 𝑖, 𝐼𝐶𝑖, 𝑊𝑖 + 𝛽𝑉(𝑍𝑖, 𝐼𝐶𝑖) (3.1)
Conditions
Τ = Τ 𝑤 + Τ𝐿 + Τ𝐼𝐶 (3.2)
𝐶𝑖 ≤ 𝑤𝑖 ∙ 𝑇 𝑤 + 𝑀𝑖 (3.3)
08-12-2016 9
The parental welfare function in the decision making
• The parent welfare function
𝛽𝑣 𝑍𝑖, 𝐼𝐶𝑖
• It is expected that there will be an
increase in the likelihood of
providing informal care, when only
having one parent left
• When a parent pass away, an
decrease in the likelihood of being
employed is expected
08-12-2016 10
Theoretical effects of informal caregiving
• Informal caregivers will decide to reduce work only when the substitution
effect outweights the income effect.
• An intensive threshold for informal caregiving.
• If the respite effect is dominating a positive relationship between informal
caregiving and working hours should be found.
08-12-2016 11
08-12-2016 12
The Intensive Margin
Empirical strategy & methods
The Empirical Model
• Labour-market model
𝐿 𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝑓𝑗 𝐼𝐶𝑖𝑡, 𝐻𝑖𝑡, 𝑋𝑖𝑡, 𝑅𝑖, 𝜖 𝑖𝑗𝑡 , 𝑗 = 1,2 𝑡 = 1,2 (4.1)
where
𝐼𝐶𝑖𝑡 is informal caregiving
𝐻𝑖𝑡 is the individuals health-status
𝑋𝑖𝑡 is social-economic control variables
𝑅𝑖 is the institutional framework in the country
08-12-2016 14
Binary Choice model
Instrument Variable model
Fixed Effect model
Average Treatment Effect model
Empirical strategy
Correlation between the endogenous
variable and the instrument (Relevance)
The instrument variable must be
exogenous (Exogeneity)
The unbiased estimator
Binary Choice model
Instrument Variable model
Fixed Effect model
Average Treatment Effect model
Empirical strategy
• 𝐶𝑜𝑣 𝑧𝑖𝑡, 𝜖𝑖𝑡 = 0
• 𝐶𝑜𝑣 𝑧𝑖𝑡, 𝐼𝐶𝑖𝑡 ≠ 0
• 𝛽𝐼𝑉 =
𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑌,𝑍)
𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑋,𝑍)
Strictly exogeneity in the fixed-effect
model
Allows for correlation between
unobserved variables and the error-term
The unbiased FE-estimator
Binary Choice model
Instrument Variable model
Fixed Effect model
Average Treatment Effect model
Empirical strategy
• 𝐸 𝑋𝑖𝑡 𝛼𝑖 ≠ 0
• 𝐸 𝑢𝑖𝑡 𝑋𝑖𝑡, 𝛼𝑖 = 0
• 𝛽 𝐹𝐸 = 𝑖=1
𝑁
𝑿𝑖
′
𝑿𝑖
−1
𝑖=1
𝑁
𝑿𝑖
′
𝑳𝑖
The Results
An empirical study of caregiving in Europe
The Results
Labour-market Participation
Table 6-1: Regression results of informal caregiving hours on labour-market participation
08-12-2016 20
Coeff S.E. Marginal S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E.
Hours of care -0,003 *** 0,001 -0,001 *** 0,000 -0,001 0,001 - - -0,012 * 0,006 - - 0,002 0,010
Informal care - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Intensive care - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Age 0,088 ** 0,045 0,061 * 0,033 0,118 *** 0,043 -0,698 1,286 0,081 * 0,046 -0,931 2,795 0,120 ** 0,044
Age Squared -0,001 ** 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000 0,007 0,012 -0,001 ** 0,000 0,008 0,026 -0,001 ** 0,000
Number of children -0,012 *** 0,004 -0,007 * 0,004 -0,014 0,012 -0,206 ** 0,082 -0,014 *** 0,004 -0,093 0,403 -0,013 0,012
Number of chronical conditions -0,021 *** 0,006 -0,017 *** 0,005 -0,003 0,010 0,167 0,144 -0,019 *** 0,006 0,394 0,532 -0,004 0,011
Married -0,118 *** 0,012 -0,084 *** 0,011 -0,025 0,032 0,246 0,297 -0,115 *** 0,012 -0,919 1,781 -0,023 0,034
Self-rated health 0,171 *** 0,016 0,110 *** 0,015 0,066 *** 0,017 0,107 0,386 0,171 *** 0,016 -0,113 0,863 0,066 *** 0,017
Household's income percentile 0,041 *** 0,002 0,026 *** 0,002 0,012 *** 0,002 0,021 0,050 0,041 *** 0,002 -0,061 0,132 0,012 *** 0,002
EURO-D -0,015 *** 0,003 -0,011 *** 0,002 -0,009 *** 0,003 0,179 ** 0,081 -0,013 *** 0,003 0,193 0,185 -0,009 *** 0,004
Wave2 dummy 0,032 *** 0,010 0,024 *** 0,007 -0,049 ** 0,023 -0,511 * 0,272 0,032 *** 0,010 -0,101 1,176 -0,050 ** 0,023
Years of education 0,014 *** 0,001 0,013 *** 0,002 - - -0,027 0,034 0,013 *** 0,001 - - - -
Female -0,206 *** 0,010 -0,186 *** 0,011 - - 2,122 *** 0,218 -0,188 *** 0,017 - - - -
Region B 0,087 *** 0,014 0,066 *** 0,015 - - -0,960 ** 0,458 0,080 *** 0,016 - - - -
Region C 0,001 0,014 -0,010 0,014 - - -0,536 0,424 -0,002 0,015 - - - -
Region D 0,161 *** 0,015 0,139 *** 0,020 - - -1,431 *** 0,410 0,149 *** 0,018 - - - -
Constant -1,669 1,247 - - -2,982 ** 1,265 18,127 35,637 -1,480 1,279 30,201 76,756 -3,059 ** 1,308
Parent 1 - - - - - - -0,562 * 0,299 - - - - - -
Mother Age - - - - - - 0,011 ** 0,005 - - - - - -
Mother Health - - - - - - 1,532 *** 0,294 - - 1,224 ** 0,596 - -
Mother Distance - - - - - - -1,182 *** 0,315 - - - - - -
Father Age - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Father Health - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Observations 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479
Individuals 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423
F-Test first stage 6,48 *** 10,09 *** 0,82
Overidentification test 0,99 (p=0,80)
Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 2,33 (p=0,13)
Hausman (Test for random effects) 208,96 *** (Reject)
Wald Chi2 3177 *** 1077 *** 254 *** 2825 *** 250 ***
R2 29% 7% 3% 25% 1% 5%
Correlation (u,X) 0,115 -0,039 0,072
*** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 %
Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a man from region A in the sample (female=0, RegionB=0, RegionC=0,RegionD=0, rest of the variables are at means)
Carehours
LPM (R1) Pooled Probit (R2) LPM FE (R3) LPM IV LPM IV (R4) LPM FEIV LPM FEIV (R5)
Second-stage Second-stageFirst-stage First-stage
Table 6-2: Regression results of Informal Care & Intensive Care (>15) on labour-market participation
08-12-2016 21
Coeff S.E. Marginal S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E.
Hours of care - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Informal care 0,036 *** 0,010 0,017 * 0,009 -0,007 0,011 - - - - 0,060 0,084 - - - - -0,007 0,155
Intensive care -0,175 *** 0,031 -0,085 *** 0,025 -0,016 0,028 - - - - -0,705 ** 0,354 - - - - 0,087 0,624
Age 0,090 ** 0,045 0,095 *** 0,037 0,124 *** 0,042 0,016 0,053 0,007 0,022 0,093 ** 0,046 -0,026 0,109 0,000 0,050 0,119 *** 0,043
Age Squared -0,001 ** 0,000 -0,001 *** 0,000 -0,001 *** 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,000 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000
Number of children -0,012 *** 0,004 -0,011 ** 0,005 -0,012 0,012 -0,007 0,004 -0,004 ** 0,002 -0,013 *** 0,004 -0,008 0,023 0,002 0,011 -0,014 0,012
Number of chronical conditions -0,021 *** 0,006 -0,018 *** 0,006 -0,003 0,010 0,012 * 0,007 0,002 0,003 -0,021 *** 0,006 0,019 0,020 0,004 0,009 -0,003 0,010
Married -0,118 *** 0,012 -0,090 *** 0,014 -0,022 0,033 0,013 0,014 0,006 0,006 -0,114 *** 0,013 0,048 0,119 -0,027 0,039 -0,021 0,040
Self-rated health 0,169 *** 0,016 0,131 *** 0,014 0,064 *** 0,017 0,049 *** 0,016 -0,005 0,008 0,162 *** 0,017 0,011 0,038 -0,009 0,018 0,067 *** 0,019
Household's income percentile 0,040 *** 0,002 0,028 *** 0,002 0,011 *** 0,002 0,007 *** 0,002 0,000 0,001 0,040 *** 0,002 -0,001 0,005 -0,001 0,002 0,012 *** 0,002
EURO-D -0,015 *** 0,003 -0,013 *** 0,003 -0,009 *** 0,003 -0,001 0,003 0,002 * 0,001 -0,013 *** 0,003 0,003 0,007 0,001 0,003 -0,009 *** 0,003
Wave2 dummy 0,033 *** 0,010 0,029 *** 0,007 -0,049 ** 0,023 -0,039 *** 0,013 -0,014 ** 0,005 0,033 *** 0,011 -0,015 0,056 -0,016 0,025 -0,049 ** 0,023
Years of education 0,013 *** 0,001 0,017 *** 0,002 - - 0,008 *** 0,001 -0,001 * 0,001 0,012 *** 0,002 - - - - - -
Female -0,208 *** 0,010 -0,214 *** 0,012 - - 0,090 *** 0,011 0,034 *** 0,004 -0,193 *** 0,014 - - - - - -
Region B 0,083 *** 0,014 0,080 *** 0,019 - - 0,076 *** 0,015 -0,023 *** 0,008 0,070 *** 0,020 - - - - - -
Region C -0,007 0,014 -0,011 0,018 - - 0,169 *** 0,015 -0,015 ** 0,007 -0,017 0,024 - - - - - -
Region D 0,150 *** 0,015 0,152 *** 0,019 - - 0,256 *** 0,018 -0,031 *** 0,007 0,129 *** 0,032 - - - - - -
Constant -1,726 1,248 - - -3,126 ** 1,255 -0,525 1,467 -0,221 0,621 -1,805 1,287 1,115 3,200 -0,094 1,443 -2,995 ** 1,271
Parent 1 - - - - - - 0,001 0,014 -0,016 ** 0,006 - - 0,102 *** 0,034 0,009 0,015 - -
Mother Age - - - - - - 0,002 *** 0,000 0,000 ** 0,000 - - - - - - - -
Mother Health - - - - - - 0,078 *** 0,014 0,038 *** 0,006 - - 0,057 ** 0,029 0,027 ** 0,012 - -
Mother Distance - - - - - - -0,162 *** 0,015 -0,021 *** 0,005 - - - - - - - -
Father Age - - - - - - 0,063 *** 0,015 0,011 * 0,007 - - - - - - - -
Father Health - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Observations 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479
Individuals 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423
F-Test first stage 37,33 *** 6,6 *** 1,6 * 0,69
Overidentification test 0,92 (p=0.82)
Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 1,62 (p=0.20)
Hausman (Test for random effects) 225,6 ***(Reject)
Wald Chi2 3204 *** 1073 *** 258 *** 2794 *** 251 ***
R2 29% 6% 9% 3% 25% 0% 0% 5%
Correlation (u,X) 0,118 -0,089 -0,104 0,077
*** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 %
a = Informal care, 1 for given care or else then 0, b=Intensive care if more than 15 hours of care
Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a unmarried man from region A who are not given care in the sample (Female=0, Married=0, self-health=0, RegionB=0, RegionC=0,RegionD=0,Informal Care=0, Intensive Care =0, rest of the variables are at means)
First-stage (a) Second-stage First-stage (a)
Intensive Caregiving
LPM (R6) Pooled Probit (R7) LPM FE (R8) LPM IV
Second-stage
LPM IV
First-stage (b)
LPM FEIV
First-stage (b)
LPM IV (R9) LPM FEIV LPM FEIV (R10)
Table 6-6: Regression results of defined Intensive caregiving margin for full sample and between genders
08-12-2016 22
Marginal S.E. Marginal S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E.
Full Sample
Informal Care 0,019 ** 0,010 0,016 * 0,009 0,017 * 0,009 0,017 * 0,009
Intensive Care -0,037 ** 0,016 -0,050 ** 0,020 -0,085 *** 0,025 -0,086 *** 0,026
Observation 6479 6479 6479 6479
Individuals 3423 3423 3423 3423
Wald 1829,70 *** 1828,76 *** 1844,43 *** 1841,41 ***
Men
Informal Care 0,022 * 0,012 0,021 * 0,011 0,019 * 0,011 0,019 * 0,011
Intensive Care -0,031 0,026 -0,053 0,042 -0,059 0,062 -0,076 0,065
Observation 2846 2846 2846 2846
Individuals 1502 1502 1502 1502
Wald 356,64 *** 395,00 *** 354,45 *** 354,70 ***
Female
Informal Care 0,016 0,014 0,015 0,014 0,019 0,014 0,018 0,014
Intensive Care -0,025 0,019 -0,038 0,023 -0,078 *** 0,027 -0,074 *** 0,028
Observation 3622 3622 3622 3622
Individuals 1921 1921 1921 1921
Wald 1211,67 *** 1203,90 *** 1231,27 *** 1221,15 ***
*** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 %
Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a man from region A who are not given care in the sample and for the women regression an
unmarried woman (a man in the mens sample) in region A (Informal care = 0, intensive care =0, Married=0, self-Health =0, Wave=0, RegionB=0,
RegionC=0,RegionD=0)
5 Hours 10 Hours 15 Hours 20 Hours
Intensive care
The Results
Labour-market hours
Table 6-7: Regressions of informal caregiving hours on Working-hours
08-12-2016
Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E.
Hours of care -0,036 0,030 0,007 0,039 - - 0,375 0,358 - - -0,013 1,042
Age 2,660 1,912 6,880 *** 2,414 1,249 0,974 0,518 2,137 0,419 1,926 6,887 *** 2,581
Age Squared -0,025 0,017 -0,058 *** 0,021 -0,011 0,009 -0,006 0,019 -0,001 0,017 -0,058 *** 0,023
Number of children -0,168 0,196 -0,159 0,597 -0,089 0,086 -0,153 0,187 0,048 0,211 -0,158 0,396
Number of chronical conditions 0,260 0,295 -0,176 0,461 0,118 0,130 0,361 0,281 0,152 0,419 -0,173 0,528
Married -1,883 *** 0,580 0,059 2,151 0,490 ** 0,249 -2,454 *** 0,562 0,527 0,842 0,069 1,462
Self-rated health 1,132 * 0,660 0,365 0,861 -0,105 0,324 1,731 ** 0,694 -0,580 1,003 0,353 1,149
Household's income percentile 0,362 *** 0,096 0,145 0,120 -0,003 0,042 0,485 *** 0,089 -0,034 0,075 0,144 0,148
EURO-D -0,109 0,113 -0,319 ** 0,156 0,124 ** 0,056 -0,055 0,128 0,144 0,167 -0,316 0,222
Wave2 dummy 0,279 0,344 -1,128 1,166 -0,445 *** 0,226 0,352 0,447 -0,733 1,028 -1,138 1,326
Years of education 0,069 0,066 - - 0,019 0,026 0,079 0,055 - - - -
Female -8,521 *** 0,498 - - 1,425 *** 0,203 -9,038 *** 0,662 - - - -
Public -2,000 *** 0,589 1,686 1,144 0,225 0,267 -3,204 *** 0,577 1,266 0,928 1,712 1,657
Region B -2,270 ** 0,965 - - -0,634 ** 0,308 -2,112 *** 0,683 - - - -
Region C -3,460 *** 0,943 - - -0,290 0,299 -3,299 *** 0,635 - - - -
Region D -0,904 0,939 - - -0,714 ** 0,324 -0,905 0,723 - - - -
Constant -29,920 53,168 -164,439 *** 70,568 -35,836 27,046 28,428 59,442 -17,614 56,423 -164,766 ** 76,132
Parent 1 - - - - -0,856 *** 0,240 - - - - - -
Mother Age - - - - 0,008 ** 0,004 - - - - - -
Mother Health - - - - 1,020 *** 0,238 - - 0,594 0,444 - -
Mother Distance - - - - -0,704 *** 0,265 - - - - - -
Father Age - - - - - - - - - - - -
Father Health - - - - 0,533 ** 0,273 - - - - - -
Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - -
Observations 4655 4655 4655 4655 4655 4655
Individuals 2577 2577 2577
F-Test first stage 1,48 5,73 0,49
Overidentification test 4,56 (p=0,34)
Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 1,64 (p=0,20)
Hausman (Test for random effects) 36,84 *** (Reject)
Wald Chi2 392 *** 551 *** 144
R2 1% 2% 7% 1% 1%
Correlation (u,X) -0,105 -0,125 -0,101
Rho 0,683
*** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 %
Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a man from region A in the sample (female=0, RegionB=0, RegionC=0,RegionD=0, rest of the variables are at means)
Second-stage First-Stage Second-StageFirst-stage
Pooled OLS (R17) OLS FE (R18) OLS IV OLS IV (R19) OLS FEIV OLS FEIV (R20)
24
Table 6-8: Regressions of informal caregiving hours on Working-hours
08-12-2016
Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E.
Hours of care 0,041 0,070 -0,057 * 0,031 - - 0,565 0,782 - - 0,411 0,328
Age 4,120 2,794 0,788 2,402 -0,456 0,841 2,814 2,897 3,052 1,871 -2,273 3,186
Age Squared -0,037 0,025 -0,009 0,022 0,004 0,008 -0,025 0,026 -0,026 0,017 0,018 0,029
Number of children -0,140 0,265 -0,247 0,291 -0,131 ** 0,075 -0,159 0,279 -0,051 0,162 -0,133 0,262
Number of chronical conditions 0,649 0,417 -0,177 0,395 0,067 0,112 0,755 * 0,388 0,158 0,249 -0,071 0,403
Married -0,045 0,832 -3,361 *** 0,816 -0,043 0,229 -0,245 0,785 1,098 ** 0,453 -4,703 *** 0,824
Self-rated health 1,328 1,015 1,259 0,839 -0,034 0,299 2,253 ** 1,027 -0,156 0,575 1,706 * 0,929
Household's income percentile 0,258 *** 0,130 0,543 *** 0,141 -0,005 0,036 0,333 *** 0,125 -0,042 0,080 0,788 *** 0,130
EURO-D -0,397 *** 0,192 0,122 0,134 0,036 0,056 -0,274 0,194 0,184 ** 0,094 0,112 0,164
Wave2 dummy -0,187 0,508 0,895 ** 0,450 -0,234 0,190 -0,170 0,631 -0,714 * 0,423 1,179 * 0,629
Years of education 0,004 0,095 0,131 0,092 -0,006 0,022 0,037 0,077 0,052 0,049 0,098 0,081
Female - - - - - - - - - - - -
Public -4,569 *** 0,868 0,246 0,768 -0,081 0,236 -5,875 *** 0,812 0,540 0,499 -0,614 0,826
Region B -1,081 1,237 -3,917 *** 1,514 0,296 0,256 -1,413 0,925 -2,205 *** 0,634 -2,954 ** 1,222
Region C -1,077 1,210 -6,132 *** 1,485 0,328 0,246 -1,081 0,910 -1,381 ** 0,620 -5,726 *** 1,078
Region D -1,676 1,203 -0,306 1,487 0,235 0,271 -2,099 ** 0,959 -2,362 *** 0,661 0,458 1,272
Constant -73,355 77,787 16,265 66,850 13,249 23,435 -39,287 80,817 -85,119 51,823 100,569 88,345
Parent 1 - - - - - - - - - -1,838 *** 0,450 - -
Mother Age - - - - 0,008 ** 0,003 - - - - - -
Mother Health - - - - 0,786 *** 0,209 - - 1,214 *** 0,399 - -
Mother Distance - - - - -0,533 ** 0,244 - - - - - -
Father Age - - - - - - - - - - - -
Father Health - - - - - - - - 1,216 ** 0,499 - -
Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - -
Observations 2465 2190 2465 2465 2190 2190
F-Test first stage 1.69 ** 3,57 ***
Overidentification test 0,767 (p=0.68) 6,05 ** (p=0.05)
Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 0,46 (p=0.49) 2,74 * (p=0.10)
Wald Chi2 41 *** 104 *** 71 *** 150,1 ***
R2 1% 1% 3%
*** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 %
Male (First) Male (Second) Female (First) Female (Second)Male Female
Pooled OLS (R21) Pooled OLS (R22) OLS IV OLS IV (R23) OLS IV OLS IV (R24)
25
The Results
The effect of a parent passing away
08-12-2016 27
Table 6-10: Results of the treatment effect of a parent passing
away on the labour-market participation
Robust Robust
Agecohort Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err.
51-58 ATET -0,019 0,019 -0,009 0,030
Mean 0,875 *** 0,010 0,153 *** 0,017
Observation (N): 1870 739
59-64 ATET -0,075 * 0,043 0,040 ** 0,022
Mean 0,668 *** 0,028 0,047 *** 0,011
Observation 601 618
***significant at 1%: **significant at 5%: *singificant at 10%
Not EmployedEmployed
1 = 0
1 = 1
1 = 0
1 = 1
• Overall, a small negative relationship between
informal caregiving and labour-market
outcomes
• An significant existence of a intensive margin
• That gender differencies exists
• That the assumption of exogeneity couldn’t
be rejected
• That the likelihood of ”early” retirement
increases for individual older than 58
experience a parent passing away
Conclusion
Questions
&
Discussion
Figure 2-1: The Global model of care. It illustrates the three components determine the
demand and supply of care. Source: Own illustration
08-12-2016 30
Table 6-9: Regional regression results of the analysis of informal caregiving hours on working-hours
08-12-2016 31
Marginal
Robust
S. E. Marginal
Robust
S. E. Marginal
Robust
S. E. Marginal
Robust
S. E.
Hours of care -0,119 * 0,066 -0,021 0,065 0,047 0,043 -0,047 0,071
Age 1,484 5,104 -2,212 4,055 5,353 3,323 3,020 2,712
Age Squared -0,012 0,046 0,017 0,037 -0,050 * 0,030 -0,028 0,024
Number of children -1,859 ** 0,797 0,046 0,393 0,108 0,343 -0,278 0,287
Number of chronical conditions -0,804 0,931 1,106 * 0,578 0,206 0,442 -0,195 0,467
Married 0,087 2,284 -2,452 ** 1,134 -1,605 1,063 -2,413 *** 0,787
Self-rated health 3,583 * 2,092 0,013 1,251 -0,102 1,008 2,514 ** 1,125
Household's income percentile 0,136 0,264 0,328 ** 0,166 0,479 *** 0,168 0,494 *** 0,153
EURO-D 0,754 ** 0,373 -0,048 0,211 -0,207 0,166 -0,442 ** 0,198
Wave2 dummy 2,188 ** 1,072 1,617 ** 0,746 -0,587 0,565 -0,843 0,558
Years of education 0,219 0,202 -0,055 0,104 0,263 ** 0,111 -0,034 0,115
Female -5,925 *** 1,817 -9,171 *** 0,931 -11,022 *** 0,829 -5,256 *** 0,745
Observations 799 1201 1536 1119
Individuals 430 676 862 609
Wald 70,35 *** 119,8 *** 243,52 *** 114,5 ***
*** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 %
Region A Region B Region C Region D

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Speciale_præsentation

  • 1. Andreas Kausgård Christensen, Økonomisk Institute CSS Effects of Informal Caregiving on Labour-Market Outcomes among European citizens aged 50+
  • 2. 4 Motivation/Aim of project Theoretical framework Empirical strategy Results Conclusion Discussion Agenda
  • 3. Aim of the project • The aim of this master thesis is to estimate the relationship between informal caregiving and the labour-market. • The overall expectation was to identify a negative relationship, that can explain why people giving care have a lower labour-market participation • However, when accounting for an intensive caregiving margin in the model, the effect is expected to be less intensive and maybe non-existent. • Why is this thesis relevant? 08-12-2016 3
  • 4. Informal caregiving can play an important role in the realisation of an effect home care and welfare state! However, meeting the care needs of relatives can have an impact on the labour-market! “
  • 5. What is the Causal Effect of Informal Caregiving on Labour-Market Outcomes Q1
  • 7. What is the effect of an elderly parent passing away Q3
  • 9. Theoretical Framework • Labour-market supply and informal caregiving • Utility function 𝑈𝑖 = 𝑓 𝐶𝑖) + 𝑣(𝐿 𝑖, 𝐼𝐶𝑖, 𝑊𝑖 + 𝛽𝑉(𝑍𝑖, 𝐼𝐶𝑖) (3.1) Conditions Τ = Τ 𝑤 + Τ𝐿 + Τ𝐼𝐶 (3.2) 𝐶𝑖 ≤ 𝑤𝑖 ∙ 𝑇 𝑤 + 𝑀𝑖 (3.3) 08-12-2016 9
  • 10. The parental welfare function in the decision making • The parent welfare function 𝛽𝑣 𝑍𝑖, 𝐼𝐶𝑖 • It is expected that there will be an increase in the likelihood of providing informal care, when only having one parent left • When a parent pass away, an decrease in the likelihood of being employed is expected 08-12-2016 10
  • 11. Theoretical effects of informal caregiving • Informal caregivers will decide to reduce work only when the substitution effect outweights the income effect. • An intensive threshold for informal caregiving. • If the respite effect is dominating a positive relationship between informal caregiving and working hours should be found. 08-12-2016 11
  • 14. The Empirical Model • Labour-market model 𝐿 𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝑓𝑗 𝐼𝐶𝑖𝑡, 𝐻𝑖𝑡, 𝑋𝑖𝑡, 𝑅𝑖, 𝜖 𝑖𝑗𝑡 , 𝑗 = 1,2 𝑡 = 1,2 (4.1) where 𝐼𝐶𝑖𝑡 is informal caregiving 𝐻𝑖𝑡 is the individuals health-status 𝑋𝑖𝑡 is social-economic control variables 𝑅𝑖 is the institutional framework in the country 08-12-2016 14
  • 15. Binary Choice model Instrument Variable model Fixed Effect model Average Treatment Effect model Empirical strategy
  • 16. Correlation between the endogenous variable and the instrument (Relevance) The instrument variable must be exogenous (Exogeneity) The unbiased estimator Binary Choice model Instrument Variable model Fixed Effect model Average Treatment Effect model Empirical strategy • 𝐶𝑜𝑣 𝑧𝑖𝑡, 𝜖𝑖𝑡 = 0 • 𝐶𝑜𝑣 𝑧𝑖𝑡, 𝐼𝐶𝑖𝑡 ≠ 0 • 𝛽𝐼𝑉 = 𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑌,𝑍) 𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑋,𝑍)
  • 17. Strictly exogeneity in the fixed-effect model Allows for correlation between unobserved variables and the error-term The unbiased FE-estimator Binary Choice model Instrument Variable model Fixed Effect model Average Treatment Effect model Empirical strategy • 𝐸 𝑋𝑖𝑡 𝛼𝑖 ≠ 0 • 𝐸 𝑢𝑖𝑡 𝑋𝑖𝑡, 𝛼𝑖 = 0 • 𝛽 𝐹𝐸 = 𝑖=1 𝑁 𝑿𝑖 ′ 𝑿𝑖 −1 𝑖=1 𝑁 𝑿𝑖 ′ 𝑳𝑖
  • 18. The Results An empirical study of caregiving in Europe
  • 20. Table 6-1: Regression results of informal caregiving hours on labour-market participation 08-12-2016 20 Coeff S.E. Marginal S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Hours of care -0,003 *** 0,001 -0,001 *** 0,000 -0,001 0,001 - - -0,012 * 0,006 - - 0,002 0,010 Informal care - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Intensive care - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Age 0,088 ** 0,045 0,061 * 0,033 0,118 *** 0,043 -0,698 1,286 0,081 * 0,046 -0,931 2,795 0,120 ** 0,044 Age Squared -0,001 ** 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000 0,007 0,012 -0,001 ** 0,000 0,008 0,026 -0,001 ** 0,000 Number of children -0,012 *** 0,004 -0,007 * 0,004 -0,014 0,012 -0,206 ** 0,082 -0,014 *** 0,004 -0,093 0,403 -0,013 0,012 Number of chronical conditions -0,021 *** 0,006 -0,017 *** 0,005 -0,003 0,010 0,167 0,144 -0,019 *** 0,006 0,394 0,532 -0,004 0,011 Married -0,118 *** 0,012 -0,084 *** 0,011 -0,025 0,032 0,246 0,297 -0,115 *** 0,012 -0,919 1,781 -0,023 0,034 Self-rated health 0,171 *** 0,016 0,110 *** 0,015 0,066 *** 0,017 0,107 0,386 0,171 *** 0,016 -0,113 0,863 0,066 *** 0,017 Household's income percentile 0,041 *** 0,002 0,026 *** 0,002 0,012 *** 0,002 0,021 0,050 0,041 *** 0,002 -0,061 0,132 0,012 *** 0,002 EURO-D -0,015 *** 0,003 -0,011 *** 0,002 -0,009 *** 0,003 0,179 ** 0,081 -0,013 *** 0,003 0,193 0,185 -0,009 *** 0,004 Wave2 dummy 0,032 *** 0,010 0,024 *** 0,007 -0,049 ** 0,023 -0,511 * 0,272 0,032 *** 0,010 -0,101 1,176 -0,050 ** 0,023 Years of education 0,014 *** 0,001 0,013 *** 0,002 - - -0,027 0,034 0,013 *** 0,001 - - - - Female -0,206 *** 0,010 -0,186 *** 0,011 - - 2,122 *** 0,218 -0,188 *** 0,017 - - - - Region B 0,087 *** 0,014 0,066 *** 0,015 - - -0,960 ** 0,458 0,080 *** 0,016 - - - - Region C 0,001 0,014 -0,010 0,014 - - -0,536 0,424 -0,002 0,015 - - - - Region D 0,161 *** 0,015 0,139 *** 0,020 - - -1,431 *** 0,410 0,149 *** 0,018 - - - - Constant -1,669 1,247 - - -2,982 ** 1,265 18,127 35,637 -1,480 1,279 30,201 76,756 -3,059 ** 1,308 Parent 1 - - - - - - -0,562 * 0,299 - - - - - - Mother Age - - - - - - 0,011 ** 0,005 - - - - - - Mother Health - - - - - - 1,532 *** 0,294 - - 1,224 ** 0,596 - - Mother Distance - - - - - - -1,182 *** 0,315 - - - - - - Father Age - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Father Health - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Observations 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 Individuals 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 F-Test first stage 6,48 *** 10,09 *** 0,82 Overidentification test 0,99 (p=0,80) Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 2,33 (p=0,13) Hausman (Test for random effects) 208,96 *** (Reject) Wald Chi2 3177 *** 1077 *** 254 *** 2825 *** 250 *** R2 29% 7% 3% 25% 1% 5% Correlation (u,X) 0,115 -0,039 0,072 *** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 % Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a man from region A in the sample (female=0, RegionB=0, RegionC=0,RegionD=0, rest of the variables are at means) Carehours LPM (R1) Pooled Probit (R2) LPM FE (R3) LPM IV LPM IV (R4) LPM FEIV LPM FEIV (R5) Second-stage Second-stageFirst-stage First-stage
  • 21. Table 6-2: Regression results of Informal Care & Intensive Care (>15) on labour-market participation 08-12-2016 21 Coeff S.E. Marginal S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Hours of care - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Informal care 0,036 *** 0,010 0,017 * 0,009 -0,007 0,011 - - - - 0,060 0,084 - - - - -0,007 0,155 Intensive care -0,175 *** 0,031 -0,085 *** 0,025 -0,016 0,028 - - - - -0,705 ** 0,354 - - - - 0,087 0,624 Age 0,090 ** 0,045 0,095 *** 0,037 0,124 *** 0,042 0,016 0,053 0,007 0,022 0,093 ** 0,046 -0,026 0,109 0,000 0,050 0,119 *** 0,043 Age Squared -0,001 ** 0,000 -0,001 *** 0,000 -0,001 *** 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,000 0,000 -0,001 ** 0,000 Number of children -0,012 *** 0,004 -0,011 ** 0,005 -0,012 0,012 -0,007 0,004 -0,004 ** 0,002 -0,013 *** 0,004 -0,008 0,023 0,002 0,011 -0,014 0,012 Number of chronical conditions -0,021 *** 0,006 -0,018 *** 0,006 -0,003 0,010 0,012 * 0,007 0,002 0,003 -0,021 *** 0,006 0,019 0,020 0,004 0,009 -0,003 0,010 Married -0,118 *** 0,012 -0,090 *** 0,014 -0,022 0,033 0,013 0,014 0,006 0,006 -0,114 *** 0,013 0,048 0,119 -0,027 0,039 -0,021 0,040 Self-rated health 0,169 *** 0,016 0,131 *** 0,014 0,064 *** 0,017 0,049 *** 0,016 -0,005 0,008 0,162 *** 0,017 0,011 0,038 -0,009 0,018 0,067 *** 0,019 Household's income percentile 0,040 *** 0,002 0,028 *** 0,002 0,011 *** 0,002 0,007 *** 0,002 0,000 0,001 0,040 *** 0,002 -0,001 0,005 -0,001 0,002 0,012 *** 0,002 EURO-D -0,015 *** 0,003 -0,013 *** 0,003 -0,009 *** 0,003 -0,001 0,003 0,002 * 0,001 -0,013 *** 0,003 0,003 0,007 0,001 0,003 -0,009 *** 0,003 Wave2 dummy 0,033 *** 0,010 0,029 *** 0,007 -0,049 ** 0,023 -0,039 *** 0,013 -0,014 ** 0,005 0,033 *** 0,011 -0,015 0,056 -0,016 0,025 -0,049 ** 0,023 Years of education 0,013 *** 0,001 0,017 *** 0,002 - - 0,008 *** 0,001 -0,001 * 0,001 0,012 *** 0,002 - - - - - - Female -0,208 *** 0,010 -0,214 *** 0,012 - - 0,090 *** 0,011 0,034 *** 0,004 -0,193 *** 0,014 - - - - - - Region B 0,083 *** 0,014 0,080 *** 0,019 - - 0,076 *** 0,015 -0,023 *** 0,008 0,070 *** 0,020 - - - - - - Region C -0,007 0,014 -0,011 0,018 - - 0,169 *** 0,015 -0,015 ** 0,007 -0,017 0,024 - - - - - - Region D 0,150 *** 0,015 0,152 *** 0,019 - - 0,256 *** 0,018 -0,031 *** 0,007 0,129 *** 0,032 - - - - - - Constant -1,726 1,248 - - -3,126 ** 1,255 -0,525 1,467 -0,221 0,621 -1,805 1,287 1,115 3,200 -0,094 1,443 -2,995 ** 1,271 Parent 1 - - - - - - 0,001 0,014 -0,016 ** 0,006 - - 0,102 *** 0,034 0,009 0,015 - - Mother Age - - - - - - 0,002 *** 0,000 0,000 ** 0,000 - - - - - - - - Mother Health - - - - - - 0,078 *** 0,014 0,038 *** 0,006 - - 0,057 ** 0,029 0,027 ** 0,012 - - Mother Distance - - - - - - -0,162 *** 0,015 -0,021 *** 0,005 - - - - - - - - Father Age - - - - - - 0,063 *** 0,015 0,011 * 0,007 - - - - - - - - Father Health - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Observations 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 6479 Individuals 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 3423 F-Test first stage 37,33 *** 6,6 *** 1,6 * 0,69 Overidentification test 0,92 (p=0.82) Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 1,62 (p=0.20) Hausman (Test for random effects) 225,6 ***(Reject) Wald Chi2 3204 *** 1073 *** 258 *** 2794 *** 251 *** R2 29% 6% 9% 3% 25% 0% 0% 5% Correlation (u,X) 0,118 -0,089 -0,104 0,077 *** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 % a = Informal care, 1 for given care or else then 0, b=Intensive care if more than 15 hours of care Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a unmarried man from region A who are not given care in the sample (Female=0, Married=0, self-health=0, RegionB=0, RegionC=0,RegionD=0,Informal Care=0, Intensive Care =0, rest of the variables are at means) First-stage (a) Second-stage First-stage (a) Intensive Caregiving LPM (R6) Pooled Probit (R7) LPM FE (R8) LPM IV Second-stage LPM IV First-stage (b) LPM FEIV First-stage (b) LPM IV (R9) LPM FEIV LPM FEIV (R10)
  • 22. Table 6-6: Regression results of defined Intensive caregiving margin for full sample and between genders 08-12-2016 22 Marginal S.E. Marginal S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Full Sample Informal Care 0,019 ** 0,010 0,016 * 0,009 0,017 * 0,009 0,017 * 0,009 Intensive Care -0,037 ** 0,016 -0,050 ** 0,020 -0,085 *** 0,025 -0,086 *** 0,026 Observation 6479 6479 6479 6479 Individuals 3423 3423 3423 3423 Wald 1829,70 *** 1828,76 *** 1844,43 *** 1841,41 *** Men Informal Care 0,022 * 0,012 0,021 * 0,011 0,019 * 0,011 0,019 * 0,011 Intensive Care -0,031 0,026 -0,053 0,042 -0,059 0,062 -0,076 0,065 Observation 2846 2846 2846 2846 Individuals 1502 1502 1502 1502 Wald 356,64 *** 395,00 *** 354,45 *** 354,70 *** Female Informal Care 0,016 0,014 0,015 0,014 0,019 0,014 0,018 0,014 Intensive Care -0,025 0,019 -0,038 0,023 -0,078 *** 0,027 -0,074 *** 0,028 Observation 3622 3622 3622 3622 Individuals 1921 1921 1921 1921 Wald 1211,67 *** 1203,90 *** 1231,27 *** 1221,15 *** *** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 % Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a man from region A who are not given care in the sample and for the women regression an unmarried woman (a man in the mens sample) in region A (Informal care = 0, intensive care =0, Married=0, self-Health =0, Wave=0, RegionB=0, RegionC=0,RegionD=0) 5 Hours 10 Hours 15 Hours 20 Hours Intensive care
  • 24. Table 6-7: Regressions of informal caregiving hours on Working-hours 08-12-2016 Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Hours of care -0,036 0,030 0,007 0,039 - - 0,375 0,358 - - -0,013 1,042 Age 2,660 1,912 6,880 *** 2,414 1,249 0,974 0,518 2,137 0,419 1,926 6,887 *** 2,581 Age Squared -0,025 0,017 -0,058 *** 0,021 -0,011 0,009 -0,006 0,019 -0,001 0,017 -0,058 *** 0,023 Number of children -0,168 0,196 -0,159 0,597 -0,089 0,086 -0,153 0,187 0,048 0,211 -0,158 0,396 Number of chronical conditions 0,260 0,295 -0,176 0,461 0,118 0,130 0,361 0,281 0,152 0,419 -0,173 0,528 Married -1,883 *** 0,580 0,059 2,151 0,490 ** 0,249 -2,454 *** 0,562 0,527 0,842 0,069 1,462 Self-rated health 1,132 * 0,660 0,365 0,861 -0,105 0,324 1,731 ** 0,694 -0,580 1,003 0,353 1,149 Household's income percentile 0,362 *** 0,096 0,145 0,120 -0,003 0,042 0,485 *** 0,089 -0,034 0,075 0,144 0,148 EURO-D -0,109 0,113 -0,319 ** 0,156 0,124 ** 0,056 -0,055 0,128 0,144 0,167 -0,316 0,222 Wave2 dummy 0,279 0,344 -1,128 1,166 -0,445 *** 0,226 0,352 0,447 -0,733 1,028 -1,138 1,326 Years of education 0,069 0,066 - - 0,019 0,026 0,079 0,055 - - - - Female -8,521 *** 0,498 - - 1,425 *** 0,203 -9,038 *** 0,662 - - - - Public -2,000 *** 0,589 1,686 1,144 0,225 0,267 -3,204 *** 0,577 1,266 0,928 1,712 1,657 Region B -2,270 ** 0,965 - - -0,634 ** 0,308 -2,112 *** 0,683 - - - - Region C -3,460 *** 0,943 - - -0,290 0,299 -3,299 *** 0,635 - - - - Region D -0,904 0,939 - - -0,714 ** 0,324 -0,905 0,723 - - - - Constant -29,920 53,168 -164,439 *** 70,568 -35,836 27,046 28,428 59,442 -17,614 56,423 -164,766 ** 76,132 Parent 1 - - - - -0,856 *** 0,240 - - - - - - Mother Age - - - - 0,008 ** 0,004 - - - - - - Mother Health - - - - 1,020 *** 0,238 - - 0,594 0,444 - - Mother Distance - - - - -0,704 *** 0,265 - - - - - - Father Age - - - - - - - - - - - - Father Health - - - - 0,533 ** 0,273 - - - - - - Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - - Observations 4655 4655 4655 4655 4655 4655 Individuals 2577 2577 2577 F-Test first stage 1,48 5,73 0,49 Overidentification test 4,56 (p=0,34) Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 1,64 (p=0,20) Hausman (Test for random effects) 36,84 *** (Reject) Wald Chi2 392 *** 551 *** 144 R2 1% 2% 7% 1% 1% Correlation (u,X) -0,105 -0,125 -0,101 Rho 0,683 *** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 % Note that the marginal effect calculation is based on a man from region A in the sample (female=0, RegionB=0, RegionC=0,RegionD=0, rest of the variables are at means) Second-stage First-Stage Second-StageFirst-stage Pooled OLS (R17) OLS FE (R18) OLS IV OLS IV (R19) OLS FEIV OLS FEIV (R20) 24
  • 25. Table 6-8: Regressions of informal caregiving hours on Working-hours 08-12-2016 Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Coeff S.E. Hours of care 0,041 0,070 -0,057 * 0,031 - - 0,565 0,782 - - 0,411 0,328 Age 4,120 2,794 0,788 2,402 -0,456 0,841 2,814 2,897 3,052 1,871 -2,273 3,186 Age Squared -0,037 0,025 -0,009 0,022 0,004 0,008 -0,025 0,026 -0,026 0,017 0,018 0,029 Number of children -0,140 0,265 -0,247 0,291 -0,131 ** 0,075 -0,159 0,279 -0,051 0,162 -0,133 0,262 Number of chronical conditions 0,649 0,417 -0,177 0,395 0,067 0,112 0,755 * 0,388 0,158 0,249 -0,071 0,403 Married -0,045 0,832 -3,361 *** 0,816 -0,043 0,229 -0,245 0,785 1,098 ** 0,453 -4,703 *** 0,824 Self-rated health 1,328 1,015 1,259 0,839 -0,034 0,299 2,253 ** 1,027 -0,156 0,575 1,706 * 0,929 Household's income percentile 0,258 *** 0,130 0,543 *** 0,141 -0,005 0,036 0,333 *** 0,125 -0,042 0,080 0,788 *** 0,130 EURO-D -0,397 *** 0,192 0,122 0,134 0,036 0,056 -0,274 0,194 0,184 ** 0,094 0,112 0,164 Wave2 dummy -0,187 0,508 0,895 ** 0,450 -0,234 0,190 -0,170 0,631 -0,714 * 0,423 1,179 * 0,629 Years of education 0,004 0,095 0,131 0,092 -0,006 0,022 0,037 0,077 0,052 0,049 0,098 0,081 Female - - - - - - - - - - - - Public -4,569 *** 0,868 0,246 0,768 -0,081 0,236 -5,875 *** 0,812 0,540 0,499 -0,614 0,826 Region B -1,081 1,237 -3,917 *** 1,514 0,296 0,256 -1,413 0,925 -2,205 *** 0,634 -2,954 ** 1,222 Region C -1,077 1,210 -6,132 *** 1,485 0,328 0,246 -1,081 0,910 -1,381 ** 0,620 -5,726 *** 1,078 Region D -1,676 1,203 -0,306 1,487 0,235 0,271 -2,099 ** 0,959 -2,362 *** 0,661 0,458 1,272 Constant -73,355 77,787 16,265 66,850 13,249 23,435 -39,287 80,817 -85,119 51,823 100,569 88,345 Parent 1 - - - - - - - - - -1,838 *** 0,450 - - Mother Age - - - - 0,008 ** 0,003 - - - - - - Mother Health - - - - 0,786 *** 0,209 - - 1,214 *** 0,399 - - Mother Distance - - - - -0,533 ** 0,244 - - - - - - Father Age - - - - - - - - - - - - Father Health - - - - - - - - 1,216 ** 0,499 - - Father Distance - - - - - - - - - - - - Observations 2465 2190 2465 2465 2190 2190 F-Test first stage 1.69 ** 3,57 *** Overidentification test 0,767 (p=0.68) 6,05 ** (p=0.05) Durbin-Wu-Hausman exogeneity test 0,46 (p=0.49) 2,74 * (p=0.10) Wald Chi2 41 *** 104 *** 71 *** 150,1 *** R2 1% 1% 3% *** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 % Male (First) Male (Second) Female (First) Female (Second)Male Female Pooled OLS (R21) Pooled OLS (R22) OLS IV OLS IV (R23) OLS IV OLS IV (R24) 25
  • 26. The Results The effect of a parent passing away
  • 27. 08-12-2016 27 Table 6-10: Results of the treatment effect of a parent passing away on the labour-market participation Robust Robust Agecohort Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. 51-58 ATET -0,019 0,019 -0,009 0,030 Mean 0,875 *** 0,010 0,153 *** 0,017 Observation (N): 1870 739 59-64 ATET -0,075 * 0,043 0,040 ** 0,022 Mean 0,668 *** 0,028 0,047 *** 0,011 Observation 601 618 ***significant at 1%: **significant at 5%: *singificant at 10% Not EmployedEmployed 1 = 0 1 = 1 1 = 0 1 = 1
  • 28. • Overall, a small negative relationship between informal caregiving and labour-market outcomes • An significant existence of a intensive margin • That gender differencies exists • That the assumption of exogeneity couldn’t be rejected • That the likelihood of ”early” retirement increases for individual older than 58 experience a parent passing away Conclusion
  • 30. Figure 2-1: The Global model of care. It illustrates the three components determine the demand and supply of care. Source: Own illustration 08-12-2016 30
  • 31. Table 6-9: Regional regression results of the analysis of informal caregiving hours on working-hours 08-12-2016 31 Marginal Robust S. E. Marginal Robust S. E. Marginal Robust S. E. Marginal Robust S. E. Hours of care -0,119 * 0,066 -0,021 0,065 0,047 0,043 -0,047 0,071 Age 1,484 5,104 -2,212 4,055 5,353 3,323 3,020 2,712 Age Squared -0,012 0,046 0,017 0,037 -0,050 * 0,030 -0,028 0,024 Number of children -1,859 ** 0,797 0,046 0,393 0,108 0,343 -0,278 0,287 Number of chronical conditions -0,804 0,931 1,106 * 0,578 0,206 0,442 -0,195 0,467 Married 0,087 2,284 -2,452 ** 1,134 -1,605 1,063 -2,413 *** 0,787 Self-rated health 3,583 * 2,092 0,013 1,251 -0,102 1,008 2,514 ** 1,125 Household's income percentile 0,136 0,264 0,328 ** 0,166 0,479 *** 0,168 0,494 *** 0,153 EURO-D 0,754 ** 0,373 -0,048 0,211 -0,207 0,166 -0,442 ** 0,198 Wave2 dummy 2,188 ** 1,072 1,617 ** 0,746 -0,587 0,565 -0,843 0,558 Years of education 0,219 0,202 -0,055 0,104 0,263 ** 0,111 -0,034 0,115 Female -5,925 *** 1,817 -9,171 *** 0,931 -11,022 *** 0,829 -5,256 *** 0,745 Observations 799 1201 1536 1119 Individuals 430 676 862 609 Wald 70,35 *** 119,8 *** 243,52 *** 114,5 *** *** Significant at 1 %; ** Significant at 5%; *Signifiant at 10 % Region A Region B Region C Region D

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. The model is based on the Nocera and Zweifel framework from 1996.
  2. The model is based on the Nocera and Zweifel framework from 1996.
  3. Natural experiments are naturally occurring situations where we want to know the effect of variable X on Y and there is a variable Z related to X, but not ε Another way so say this is: Z effects Y only through X This variable Z is called an instrumental variable It can be shown that is an unbiased estimator of β1 in large samples but not in small samples (bIV is consistent) IV can thus be used to address the following important threats to internal validity: • Omitted variable bias from a variable that is correlated with X but is unobserved, so cannot be included in the regression; • Simultaneous causality bias (endogenous explanatory variables; X causes Y, Y causes X); • Errors-in-variables bias (X is measured with error) Instrumental variables regression can eliminate bias from these three sources. A valid instrument must satisfy two conditions
  4. FE modeller kontrollere for alle tidsinvariante forskelle mellem personer, så den estimeret koefficient af FE modellen kan ikke være biased grundet omitted time-invariant karakteristika En downside, ved at bruge FE modeller er at de ikke kan bruges til at undersøge tidsinvariant udsving af de afhængige variabler. FE modellere er designet til at studere ændringer within a person.
  5. NOT SIGNIFICANT! INCREASING STANDARD ERRORS
  6. Gender difference, but not significant different. However it seems likely that women is having a trade-off
  7. To summarize the findings, only the older cohort experiences a significant effect on employment when a parent passes away.
  8. Discussion Selection bias? More periods? Measurement error and intrepretion of questions Larger sample size Instrument variables valid and good?