Webinar by Stephen Passmore (The Ecological Sequestration Trsut) and Rembrandt Koppelaar (IIER/ICL) that will explain the http://resilience.io platform focusing on its core capability in providing cross-sector decision support for a city and its hinterland. We will provide an overview of how the resource-economic simulation model operates and provides the evidence in city region decision-making for investment, procurement, policy making, and planning, to achieve more resilient solutions. We will focus on the interconnections between resource flows from human and ecological agents as well as the socio-economic activity of people and companies, and how these deliver regional outputs. Areas that we will be addressing include: Resource flows and socio-economic model interconnections. Links to planning, procurement, policy making, and investment decisions. Data acquisition, maintenance, and sharing cross-sector and regional interdependencies.

1. resilience.io
Webinar
28th October 2014
@resilienceIO

2. Agenda
1.Introduction – 5 mins
Stephen Passmore
Head of Platform Development - TEST
2.Model Processes and Functions – 30 mins
Rembrandt Koppelaar
Modelling research lead - IIER
3.Questions – 25 mins
Enquiries: Alexander.Schmidt@ecosequestrust.org

3. Some Fundamentals
• We are facing the combined challenges of climate change,
population increase and urbanisation, increasing resource
scarcity and its impact on our economies, society and
environment.
• This is a systemic challenge – we need to meet it with
systems thinking and a coordinated response that
stimulates closer collaboration between the public, private,
knowledge and community sectors.
• City-regions are on the front line and where systemic
change has the potential to deliver the most rapid benefits.

4. The Ecological Sequestration Trust
• TEST is a UK Charity formed in 2011 to speed up and scale
up transformative urban/rural development towards a
resilient, low carbon, resource efficient way of living.
• We operate in the space between private, pubic,
knowledge and community sectors to facilitate systems
integration and to support collaborative decision making
on policies and investment.
• TEST has brought together world-leading modellers and
sector experts to design and create the world’s first open-source,
fully integrated resource and economics systems
model for city-regions.

5. Resilience.io Platform
Technical Brief on Model
Architecture & Decision Support
28 October 2014
Rembrandt Koppelaar – Modelling Research Lead
Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER)

6. A new approach to sustainability
and resilience
Now
Where we could be with systems
thinking and an urban-rural
approach
• Sequential approach in project evaluation
• Conventional economic assessment dominates
• Short term political and finance cycle perspective
• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy,
urban and rural viewed separately)
• Social benefit at the end of the line (not transparent)
• INTEGRATED DESIGN
• INTEGRATED PLANNING
• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN
DESIGN
PLANNING
DEVELOPMENT

7. Approach to Sustainable Regions
• A Regional Approach Is Fundamental
• Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated
regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act
• Must unite economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape
interventions with a common/credible economic analyses

8. Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration

9. Components Overview
Model core is a link between:
• Resource conversions
(material & energy balance +
labour).
• Agent based socio-economics
(human activities & decisions).
Both components are calibrated
for each location and run with a
set of selected “rules” for
institutions and policies

10. Biophysical resource conversions
• All activities across sectors can be
described as resource conversions with
labour inputs in space and time.
• Systematic Resource Conversion
Process Library across all sectors (14).
• Hard-coded boundary description for
allocation to spatial landscapes.
• Modular setup to enable creation of
local configurations.
Source of top figure: Brandt et al. (2013) Calculating systems-scale energy efficiency and net energy returns : A bottom-up matrix-based approach. Energy 62. p.235-247
Source of bottom figure:: Kuosmanen, N., Kuosmanen,T., (2013). Modeling Cumulative Effects of Nutrient Surpluses in Agriculture: A Dynamic Approach to Material Balance Accounting. Ecological Economics. 90. p. 159-167.

11. Spatial resource conversion allocation
Identification of Infrastructure:
•Company or Household
•Spatial location
•Outputs produced (company)
•Production typology (company)
•Infrastructure typology
Facilitates automated spatial allocation
of resource conversions, labour &
employee requirements, infrastructure
material stocks, embodied flows.
Distribution centre
Meat process factory
Football stadium
Hospital
Residences

12. Activity Based Consumption
• Simulated people carry out activities
in time and space.
• Core activities include leisure, work,
food consumption, travel,
‘maintenance’, and sleep.
• Activities linked to Resource
Consumption Baskets of Materials
and Energy.
• Simulated activity profile translated
to resource consumption profile in
space and time.
Source of figures: Keirstead, J., Sivakumar, A., 2012. Using Activity-Based Modeling to Simulate Urban Resource Demands at High Spatial and Temporal Resolutions.
Journal of Industrial Ecology. 16(6). pp. 889 – 900.

13. Agent Decision Socio-Economics
PPeeoopplele
GGoovveerrnnmmeenntt
Institutions
Institutions
(Regulatory, Planning,
Soft Policies, Culture)
(Regulatory, Planning,
Soft Policies, Culture)
DDeeccisisioionnss
MMaarrkkeettss
Outcomes
Outcomes
(Production, Investment, Activities,
Well-being as happiness and health,
(Production, Investment, Activities,
Well-being as happiness and health,
etc.)
etc.)
DDeemmooggrraapphhicicss
FFirirmmooggrraapphhicicss
CCoommppaannieiess
HHoouusseehhooldldss
Labour
Supply &
Demand
Supply &
Demand
Shape
Shape
Shape
Make
Make
Make
Influence
Influence
External
World
External
World
Regulate
Supply & Demand

14. Agent interactions organised by markets
• Exchange of Goods and Services
from Transactions Markets.
• Change in occupations and jobs
from Labour Markets.
• Change in Physical Capital from
investment & property markets
(Biosphere + Technosphere).
• Change in Human Capital from
Educational and Labour Markets
(Degrees + Experience) as well
as Health Markets.
Transactions
of Goods &
Services
Markets
Labour
Markets
Agents as
1) Consumers
2) Processors
Health 3) Owners
Markets
Investment &
Property
Markets
Educational
Markets

15. Linkages between Ecosystem
Services and Human Well-being

16. Creating Visibility on Ecosystems,
Environment & Health relationships
• Simulated resource conversions result in flows of waste and
pollution to air, soil, surface, water bodies in space and time.
• Flows can be combined with existing databases of human and
eco-toxicity indicators for environmental impact assessment.
• Simulation framework facilitates connection to existing regional
ecosystem models with feedbacks (flows, ecosystem services).
• Impacts on Human Health in space and time become visible by
environmental exposure, activity decision change, feedbacks of
ecosystem degradation or improvements.

17. Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration

18. Decision Support for Regional Design
• Resilience.io is not a predictive
modelling platform which describes
the future.
• Resilience.io is normative as it
creates insights in how to shape the
future.
• Its value is the ability to simulate
investment, planning, and policy
decisions.
• And giving users visibility on
decision impact at economic, social,
and environmental dimensions.
Model
Regional
Design
Simulation
Results
Investment
Planning
Policies
Visibility
Resilience
Performance
States

19. Investment, Policy, Planning,
Impacts visible at multiple levels
Level 2 :
Indicator relational details
& graphical output
Level 3:
Quantitative & Qualitative
Variable and Parameter
mapping
Level 1 – Key Performance Indicators
Level 4: Technical report
Identification of relational
and data gaps and
potential for
improvement
Comprehensiveness of
process and agent
relations and data
input

20. Indicators include Stability and Resilience
• Value at Risk due to Natural & Societal Events are measured by impact on
Capital (Social, Economic, Natural, Physical)
• Stability  continuity in supply of goods and services + pursuit of activities
• Resilience ability to mitigate shocks and prevent irreversible capital loss
Economic Response
-Capital Re-allocation
-Capital Re-configuration
Economic Impact
-Capital Mitigation
-Capital Loss
Natural
-Climate Change
-Pathogens
-Ecosystem change
Societal
-Social Disruptions
-Supply Chains
-Market Shocks

21. Economic Instruments
Taxes and tax
concessions Purchasing Tradable
Permits
Legislative & Public Instruments
Educational
programmes
Standards and
Penalties Covenants
Accreditation
systems
Licensing
Subsidies and
grants
Public service
provision
Simulating Policy Decisions
• The model is delivered with a library of policy options.
• Policy effects are simulated based on changes in market operation and decisions.
• Impacts become visible through changes in outcomes (production, consumption,
activities) and indicators (social, economic, environmental) in space and time.
• Users can put policies into effect and vary their degree.

22. Simulating Investments and Procurement
• Companies start investment decision evaluation based on
threshold conditions (e.g. capital, market conditions, credit).
• Simulated investments decisions are based on a three-step
procedure, first: technology choice, second: selection of
plausible options, third: cost-benefit analysis.
• Users can analyse investment condition impacts by adjusting
parameters requirements (NPV, ROI, BCR, Diversification, Time
Horizon), value inclusion (Economic, Social, Environmental),
and degree of cross-sector information in simulation.
• Users can as “central planner” choose their own investment
decisions at both company and government levels, overriding
internal simulation decisions.

23. Simulating Planning Decisions
• At baseline for each demonstrator
the local spatial planning map is
reconstructed in the model.
• The platform user can adjust
planning rules as a “planning
permission authority” about land
use, construction, and demolition,
based on parameter settings.
• Any investment or policy decision
generated in the simulation will be
evaluated and accepted or rejected
based on the user set planning
rules.
Simulated Planning
Simulated Planning
consideration (company /
consideration (company /
government)
government)
Built
Built
environment
environment
change
change
Planning
Investment
Planning
Investment
Simulated Planning
Simulated Planning
Application
Application
Acceptance/Rejection
based on user rules
Acceptance/Rejection
based on user rules

24. Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration

25. Inclusive Regional Model Roll-out

26. Data sources for simulating people, companies and
ecology in time and space
Population Status
• Population census data
• Birth-death, marriage registers
• Labour, employment records
• Education & Health records
• Happiness surveys
Market & Societal structures
• Business and tax records
• Company Location Data
• Activity & Consumption data
• Sector and Utility Networks
• Crowd-sourced Surveys
Transport & Exchange
• Public transport records
• GPS, traffic & signal sensors
• Cross boundary Imp./Exp. data
• Market purchasing data
• Property investment data
Ecological Information
• Land registries
• Soil and Water Quality
• Biomass Productivity
• Climatic ecosystem records
• Local Ecosystem Models
Resilience.io
Simulation

27. Satellite Remote Sensing – Urban
Environment Information - Edinburgh

28. Social Data - Multiple Deprivation Score
at Ward/ Street Level – London
Crown copyright and database rights 2011 Ordnance Survey. London Borough of Tower Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 Hamlets 100019288

29. Overview
• Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics
• Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights
• Building a Regional Demonstrator Model
• Cross-Sector Collaboration

30. Creating visibility for cross-sector
collaboration
Ecosystems (Terrestrial, Aquatic)
x
Construction
Energy Generation
Transportation
Human and
animal Services
Mineral
Extraction
Food
processing Forestry
Physical
manufacturing
Chemical
manufacturing
Recycling, disposal,
remanufacturing
Water Supply
Agriculture &
Seafood
Biological
processing
Human
consumption

31. Getting People Working Together
Demonstrate Approach
through Parallel Action
in a Network of 3-5
Strategically Important
Demonstrate Approach
through Parallel Action
in a Network of 3-5
Strategically Important
Locations
(1-5m people)
Locations
(1-5m people)
Getting People Working Together
Regional Collaboratory
Open-source
Model ‘living
master plan’
Open-source
Model ‘living
master plan’
Cross sector
capacity building
programmes –
integrated
systems thinking
& design
Tangible linking of
social/wellbeing
benefit to physical
interventions
Integrated
technology and
infrastructure
project plans
Mobilised finance
and inward
investment
Public, Private &
Community
Sector Partner
Public, Private &
Community
Sector Partner
Access/
Access/
collaboration
collaboration
Live regional data
cloud and
performance KPIs
& metrics
Integrated regional
development plan

32. Collaboratories ‘on the ground’
Cambridge, Sainsbury Laboratory Arizona, Decision Theatre
Warwick Research Exchange
Stanford, Clark Center Stanford D. school

33. Resilience.io
Technical Brief on Model Architecture
& Decision Support
Koppelaar@iier.ch

34. Questions..

37. Global ICES ESA
Global Climate and
Insurance
Catastrophic Risk
OASIS
Modelling

38. User
Cockpits

39. Integrated urban systems design/planning and
procurement for sustainability and resilience
Now Where we could be with systems thinking
and performance based procurement
• Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional
economic assessment dominates how we design (cities,
policies, technology interventions etc)
• Short term political and finance cycles dominate
economic plane
• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy,
urban and rural viewed separately)
• Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract
relationship to earlier planes .
• INTEGRATED DESIGN
• INTEGRATED PLANNING
• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN
DESIGN
PLANNING
DEVELOPMENT

40. Output
Successful
improvement in
energy-water-food
security and quality of
lifess
Evidence-based
‘trusted’
independent
model
“Project
portfolio”
Return Investment
Regional Funding for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’
Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds
Assurance
“High quality
inclusive resilient
growth”

41. Appendix
-Process Library Example
-Technological Progress
-3D Visualisation
-Full (Eco)nomic Value

42. Process Library Sector Example
Data improvement
•Full supply chain accounting
•Data accounting robustness
•Identification of data gaps
•Crosscheck validation potential
Technology appraisal
•R&D technology effects
•Process substitution options
•Cost accounting of suppliers
•Eco-efficiency priorities
•Supply chain environmental
impact calculation
Energy Generation
Solar Energy Wind Energy
Thin Film Solar Photovoltaic Solar
Monocrystalline Polycrystalline Amorphous
Ingot based Ribbon
drawn
A B C D E F G
Sets of processes

43. Technology progress forecasts

44. 3D visualisation provides a communication tool for stakeholders &
investors data menu enables interactive overlay of relevant information

45. Full (Eco)nomic Value
Labour hours
•to retrieve & process
materials (incl. energy)
across supply chains
•to transport and
distribute materials
•“Embodied” in
infrastructure
Temporal storage cost
requirements for supply
chain functioning
Market Prices (Eco)nomic value
Price markups
•Market organization
•Ownership
•Skill and knowledge
demand/supply
Societal valuation
•present vs. the future
(discount rates )
•Scarcity of goods in
relation to demand and
preferences
Ecosystem services
•Provisioning
•Regulating
•Cultural
Human well-being
•Security
•Wealth for a good life
•Health
•Good social relations
•Freedom of choice
Technology Base 
Labour / Energy needs
Market Structure 
Markups & Distribution
Societal Valuation Price
as a marker for value
Physical costs