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Measuring	
  the	
  IQ	
  of	
  your	
  Threat	
  
Intelligence	
  Feeds	
  (#TIQtest)	
  
Alex	
  Pinto	
  
MLSec	
  Project	
  	
  
@alexcpsec	
  
@MLSecProject!
Kyle	
  Maxwell	
  
Researcher	
  
@kylemaxwell!
Alex	
  Pinto	
  
•  Science	
  guy	
  at	
  MLSec	
  Project	
  
•  ML	
  trainer	
  
•  Network	
  security	
  aficionado	
  	
  
•  Tortured	
  by	
  SIEMs	
  as	
  a	
  child	
  
•  Hacker	
  Spirit	
  Animal™:	
  
CAFFEINATED	
  CAPYBARA!
whoami(s)	
  
Kyle	
  Maxwell	
  
•  Researcher	
  at	
  [REDACTED]	
  
•  Math	
  Smuggler	
  
•  Recovering	
  Incident	
  Responder	
  
•  GPL	
  zealot	
  
•  Hacker	
  Spirit	
  Animal™:	
  
AXIOMATIC	
  ARMADILLO!
(hUps://secure.flickr.com/photos/kobashi_san/)	
   (hUp://www.langorigami.com/art/gallery/
gallery.php?tag=mammals&name=armadillo)	
  
•  Threat	
  Intel	
  102	
  
•  Measuring	
  Intelligence	
  
•  Data	
  Preparaaon	
  
•  Tesang	
  the	
  Data	
  
•  Tools:	
  
•  COMBINE	
  
•  TIQ-­‐TEST	
  
•  Some	
  parang	
  ideas	
  
Agenda	
  
(hUp://www.savagechickens.com/2008/12/iq-­‐test.html)	
  
Threat	
  Intel	
  102:	
  Capability	
  and	
  
Intent	
  
•  What	
  are	
  they	
  able	
  to	
  do?	
  
•  What	
  are	
  they	
  intending	
  to	
  do?!
Threat	
  Intel	
  102:	
  Cage	
  Matches	
  
•  Signatures	
  vs	
  Indicators	
  
•  Data	
  vs	
  Intelligence	
  
•  Tacacal	
  vs	
  Strategic	
  
•  Atomic	
  vs	
  Composite	
  
Threat	
  Intel	
  102:	
  Pyramid	
  of	
  Pain	
  
“Simple”	
  and	
  “easy”	
  aren’t	
  always	
  
(David	
  Bianco	
  –	
  Pyramid	
  of	
  Pain)	
  
What	
  about	
  IP	
  addresses?	
  
•  Approximately	
  same	
  value	
  as	
  hostnames	
  (APT	
  vs	
  DGA)	
  
•  Finite	
  resource	
  (unal	
  IPv6,	
  that	
  is)	
  
•  Managed	
  /	
  controlled	
  by	
  orgs	
  
•  Difficulty	
  /	
  economic	
  incenaves	
  /	
  implied	
  “cost”	
  
•  Also,	
  recyclable	
  	
  
(hUps://xkcd.com/865/)	
  
Given	
  IP	
  addresses	
  harvested	
  from	
  
TI	
  feeds,	
  can	
  we	
  measure	
  how	
  
much	
  they	
  “help”	
  our	
  defense	
  
metrics?!
Introducing	
  TIQ-­‐TEST	
  
•  All	
  these	
  tests	
  are	
  available	
  as	
  R	
  funcaons	
  at	
  	
  
•  hUps://github.com/mlsecproject/aq-­‐test	
  
•  Have	
  fun,	
  prove	
  me	
  wrong,	
  suggest	
  stuff	
  
•  Tools	
  that	
  implement	
  those	
  tests	
  
•  Sample	
  data	
  +	
  R	
  Markdown	
  file	
  
•  The	
  excuse	
  to	
  learn	
  a	
  staasacal	
  language	
  you	
  were	
  waiang	
  
for!	
  
Data	
  Sources	
  –	
  Types	
  of	
  data	
  
•  Extract	
  the	
  “raw”	
  informaaon	
  from	
  indicator	
  feeds	
  
•  Both	
  IP	
  addresses	
  and	
  hostnames	
  were	
  extracted	
  
Data	
  Sources	
  –	
  Feeds	
  Selected	
  
•  Data	
  was	
  separated	
  into	
  “inbound”	
  and	
  “outbound”	
  
Data	
  PreparaLon	
  and	
  Cleansing	
  
•  Convert	
  the	
  hostname	
  data	
  to	
  IP	
  addresses:	
  
•  Acave	
  IP	
  addresses	
  for	
  the	
  respecave	
  date	
  (“A”	
  query)	
  
•  Passive	
  DNS	
  from	
  Farsight	
  Security	
  (DNSDB)	
  
•  We	
  removed	
  non-­‐public	
  IPs	
  from	
  the	
  dataset	
  (RFC1918)	
  	
  
•  Yeah,	
  we	
  know	
  it	
  is	
  a	
  “parking	
  technique”	
  
(hUps://xkcd.com/742/)	
  
Data	
  PreparaLon	
  and	
  Cleansing	
  
•  For	
  each	
  IP	
  record	
  (including	
  the	
  ones	
  from	
  hostnames):	
  
•  Add	
  asnumber	
  and	
  asname	
  (from	
  MaxMind	
  ASN	
  DB)	
  
•  Add	
  country	
  (from	
  MaxMind	
  GeoLite	
  DB)	
  
•  Add	
  rhost	
  (again	
  from	
  DNSDB)	
  –	
  most	
  popular	
  “PTR”	
  
•  The	
  experiments	
  will	
  be	
  around	
  ASNs	
  and	
  Geolocaaon	
  
Data	
  PreparaLon	
  and	
  Cleansing	
  
•  However,	
  we	
  will	
  NOT	
  be	
  using	
  maps.	
  Just	
  let	
  it	
  go.	
  
Data	
  PreparaLon	
  and	
  Cleansing	
  
•  Small	
  enriched	
  sample:!
TesLng	
  the	
  Data	
  
•  Let’s	
  generate	
  some	
  interesang	
  metrics:	
  
•  NOVELTY	
  –	
  How	
  oxen	
  do	
  they	
  update	
  themselves?	
  
•  OVERLAP	
  –	
  How	
  do	
  they	
  compare	
  to	
  what	
  you	
  got?	
  
•  POPULATION	
  –	
  what	
  is	
  in	
  them	
  anyway?	
  
•  Populaaon	
  is	
  tricky:	
  
•  Could	
  mean	
  the	
  enare	
  world	
  (all	
  IPv4	
  space)	
  
•  Should	
  ideally	
  mean	
  YOUR	
  world	
  
But	
  WHAT	
  IS	
  THE	
  IQ?!??1?	
  
•  We	
  will	
  withhold	
  judgment	
  
•  The	
  best	
  data	
  composiaon	
  is	
  the	
  best	
  one	
  for	
  you	
  
•  We	
  will	
  do	
  our	
  best	
  to	
  explain	
  results	
  so	
  you	
  can	
  decide.	
  
•  Maybe	
  on	
  further	
  (or	
  more	
  private)	
  research…	
  
	
  
	
  
Novelty	
  Test	
  –	
  measuring	
  added	
  
and	
  dropped	
  indicators!
Novelty	
  Test	
  (1)	
  
Novelty	
  Test	
  (2)	
  
Overlap	
  Test	
  –	
  More	
  data	
  is	
  beUer,	
  
but	
  make	
  sure	
  it	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  same	
  
data!
Overlap	
  Test	
  
Overlap	
  Test	
  
Overlap	
  Test	
  
PopulaLon	
  Test	
  
•  Let	
  us	
  use	
  the	
  ASN	
  and	
  
GeoIP	
  databases	
  that	
  we	
  
used	
  to	
  enrich	
  our	
  data	
  as	
  a	
  
reference	
  of	
  the	
  “true”	
  
populaaon.	
  	
  
•  But,	
  but,	
  human	
  beings	
  are	
  
unpredictable!	
  We	
  will	
  
never	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  forecast	
  
this!	
  
	
  
	
  
Can	
  we	
  get	
  a	
  beSer	
  look?	
  
•  Don’t	
  like	
  squinang	
  either	
  
•  Staasacal	
  inference-­‐based	
  comparison	
  models	
  
(hypothesis	
  tesang)	
  
•  Exact	
  binomial	
  tests	
  (when	
  we	
  have	
  the	
  “true”	
  pop)	
  
•  Chi-­‐squared	
  proporaon	
  tests	
  (similar	
  to	
  
independence	
  tests)	
  
	
  
Can	
  we	
  get	
  a	
  beSer	
  look?	
  
•  We	
  can	
  beUer	
  esamate,	
  with	
  confidence	
  intervals,	
  our	
  
measures	
  of	
  error.	
  
•  Also,	
  p-­‐values!	
  (with	
  apologies	
  to	
  Alex	
  HuUon)	
  
•  We	
  promise	
  to	
  be	
  very	
  conservaave	
  in	
  using	
  them.	
  
	
  
Hacker	
  Spirit	
  Animal™	
  Guide	
  
•  US	
  –	
  Eagle	
  
•  CA	
  –	
  Moose	
  
•  FR	
  –	
  Frog	
  
•  GB	
  –	
  Bulldog	
  
•  AU	
  –	
  Koala	
  
•  BR	
  –	
  Capybara	
  /	
  Toucan	
  
•  Texas	
  –	
  Armadillo	
  
•  Disclaimer:	
  we	
  do	
  not	
  endorse	
  Geolocaaon-­‐based	
  aUribuaon	
  
Trend	
  Comparison	
  
Introducing	
  COMBINE	
  
•  Harvesang	
  feeds	
  
takes	
  some	
  work.	
  
•  Most	
  of	
  us	
  let	
  
somebody	
  else	
  do	
  it	
  
without	
  thinking	
  
about	
  what	
  it	
  
actually	
  takes.	
  
Introducing	
  COMBINE	
  
hUps://github.com/mlsecproject/combine	
  
Introducing	
  COMBINE	
  
•  Components:	
  
1.  Reaper	
  gathers	
  the	
  threat	
  data	
  directly	
  from	
  feeds.	
  
2.  Thresher	
  normalizes	
  it	
  into	
  a	
  simplisac	
  data	
  model.	
  
3.  Winnower	
  opaonally	
  performs	
  basic	
  validaaon	
  or	
  
enrichment.	
  
4.  Baler	
  transforms	
  the	
  data	
  into	
  CybOX,	
  CSV,	
  JSON,	
  and	
  
CIM.	
  (Only	
  CSV	
  and	
  JSON	
  work	
  right	
  now).	
  Could	
  also	
  
write	
  others	
  fairly	
  easily.	
  (nudge	
  nudge,	
  wink	
  wink)	
  
Introducing	
  COMBINE	
  
•  Always	
  trying	
  to	
  feed	
  
it	
  more.	
  Lots	
  of	
  
possibiliaes,	
  
including	
  your	
  own	
  
data	
  sources.	
  
•  We	
  clearly	
  do	
  NOT	
  
endorse	
  any	
  included	
  
feeds.	
  	
  
Introducing	
  COMBINE	
  
•  Enrichments	
  -­‐	
  think	
  
metadata.	
  	
  
•  AS,	
  geolocaaon	
  
•  DNS	
  resoluaons	
  
courtesy	
  of	
  Farsight	
  
DNSDB	
  	
  
•  Ask	
  them	
  for	
  an	
  
API	
  key	
  to	
  test	
  it,	
  tell	
  
them	
  Alex	
  Pinto	
  
sent	
  you	
  ;)	
  	
  
MLSec	
  Project	
  
•  Both	
  projects	
  have	
  been	
  released	
  as	
  GPLv3	
  by	
  MLSec	
  Project	
  
•  Will	
  replace	
  the	
  internal	
  versions	
  we	
  have	
  on	
  the	
  main	
  code	
  
	
  
•  Looking	
  for	
  paracipants	
  and	
  data	
  sharing	
  agreements	
  
•  Liked	
  TIQ-­‐TEST?	
  We	
  can	
  benchmark	
  your	
  private	
  feeds	
  using	
  
these	
  and	
  other	
  techniques	
  
	
  
•  Visit	
  hSps://www.mlsecproject.org	
  ,	
  message	
  @MLSecProject	
  
or	
  just	
  e-­‐mail	
  me.!
Take	
  Aways	
  
•  Analyze	
  your	
  data.	
  	
  
•  Extract	
  value	
  from	
  it!	
  
•  Try	
  before	
  you	
  buy!	
  Different	
  test	
  
results	
  mean	
  different	
  things	
  to	
  
different	
  orgs.	
  
•  Use	
  the	
  tools!	
  Suggest	
  new	
  tests!	
  
•  Share	
  data	
  with	
  us!	
  We	
  take	
  good	
  
care	
  of	
  it,	
  make	
  sure	
  it	
  gets	
  
proper	
  exercise.	
  	
  
Thanks!	
  
•  Q&A?	
  
•  Feedback!	
  
Alex	
  Pinto	
  	
  
@alexcpsec	
  
@MLSecProject	
  
”The	
  measure	
  of	
  intelligence	
  is	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  change."	
  	
  
	
   	
   	
   	
  	
   	
   	
  -­‐	
  Albert	
  Einstein	
  	
  
Kyle	
  Maxwell	
  
@kylemaxwell	
  

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Measuring the IQ of your Threat Intelligence Feeds (#tiqtest)

  • 1. Measuring  the  IQ  of  your  Threat   Intelligence  Feeds  (#TIQtest)   Alex  Pinto   MLSec  Project     @alexcpsec   @MLSecProject! Kyle  Maxwell   Researcher   @kylemaxwell!
  • 2. Alex  Pinto   •  Science  guy  at  MLSec  Project   •  ML  trainer   •  Network  security  aficionado     •  Tortured  by  SIEMs  as  a  child   •  Hacker  Spirit  Animal™:   CAFFEINATED  CAPYBARA! whoami(s)   Kyle  Maxwell   •  Researcher  at  [REDACTED]   •  Math  Smuggler   •  Recovering  Incident  Responder   •  GPL  zealot   •  Hacker  Spirit  Animal™:   AXIOMATIC  ARMADILLO! (hUps://secure.flickr.com/photos/kobashi_san/)   (hUp://www.langorigami.com/art/gallery/ gallery.php?tag=mammals&name=armadillo)  
  • 3. •  Threat  Intel  102   •  Measuring  Intelligence   •  Data  Preparaaon   •  Tesang  the  Data   •  Tools:   •  COMBINE   •  TIQ-­‐TEST   •  Some  parang  ideas   Agenda   (hUp://www.savagechickens.com/2008/12/iq-­‐test.html)  
  • 4. Threat  Intel  102:  Capability  and   Intent   •  What  are  they  able  to  do?   •  What  are  they  intending  to  do?!
  • 5. Threat  Intel  102:  Cage  Matches   •  Signatures  vs  Indicators   •  Data  vs  Intelligence   •  Tacacal  vs  Strategic   •  Atomic  vs  Composite  
  • 6. Threat  Intel  102:  Pyramid  of  Pain   “Simple”  and  “easy”  aren’t  always   (David  Bianco  –  Pyramid  of  Pain)  
  • 7. What  about  IP  addresses?   •  Approximately  same  value  as  hostnames  (APT  vs  DGA)   •  Finite  resource  (unal  IPv6,  that  is)   •  Managed  /  controlled  by  orgs   •  Difficulty  /  economic  incenaves  /  implied  “cost”   •  Also,  recyclable     (hUps://xkcd.com/865/)  
  • 8. Given  IP  addresses  harvested  from   TI  feeds,  can  we  measure  how   much  they  “help”  our  defense   metrics?!
  • 9. Introducing  TIQ-­‐TEST   •  All  these  tests  are  available  as  R  funcaons  at     •  hUps://github.com/mlsecproject/aq-­‐test   •  Have  fun,  prove  me  wrong,  suggest  stuff   •  Tools  that  implement  those  tests   •  Sample  data  +  R  Markdown  file   •  The  excuse  to  learn  a  staasacal  language  you  were  waiang   for!  
  • 10. Data  Sources  –  Types  of  data   •  Extract  the  “raw”  informaaon  from  indicator  feeds   •  Both  IP  addresses  and  hostnames  were  extracted  
  • 11. Data  Sources  –  Feeds  Selected   •  Data  was  separated  into  “inbound”  and  “outbound”  
  • 12. Data  PreparaLon  and  Cleansing   •  Convert  the  hostname  data  to  IP  addresses:   •  Acave  IP  addresses  for  the  respecave  date  (“A”  query)   •  Passive  DNS  from  Farsight  Security  (DNSDB)   •  We  removed  non-­‐public  IPs  from  the  dataset  (RFC1918)     •  Yeah,  we  know  it  is  a  “parking  technique”   (hUps://xkcd.com/742/)  
  • 13. Data  PreparaLon  and  Cleansing   •  For  each  IP  record  (including  the  ones  from  hostnames):   •  Add  asnumber  and  asname  (from  MaxMind  ASN  DB)   •  Add  country  (from  MaxMind  GeoLite  DB)   •  Add  rhost  (again  from  DNSDB)  –  most  popular  “PTR”   •  The  experiments  will  be  around  ASNs  and  Geolocaaon  
  • 14. Data  PreparaLon  and  Cleansing   •  However,  we  will  NOT  be  using  maps.  Just  let  it  go.  
  • 15. Data  PreparaLon  and  Cleansing   •  Small  enriched  sample:!
  • 16. TesLng  the  Data   •  Let’s  generate  some  interesang  metrics:   •  NOVELTY  –  How  oxen  do  they  update  themselves?   •  OVERLAP  –  How  do  they  compare  to  what  you  got?   •  POPULATION  –  what  is  in  them  anyway?   •  Populaaon  is  tricky:   •  Could  mean  the  enare  world  (all  IPv4  space)   •  Should  ideally  mean  YOUR  world  
  • 17. But  WHAT  IS  THE  IQ?!??1?   •  We  will  withhold  judgment   •  The  best  data  composiaon  is  the  best  one  for  you   •  We  will  do  our  best  to  explain  results  so  you  can  decide.   •  Maybe  on  further  (or  more  private)  research…      
  • 18. Novelty  Test  –  measuring  added   and  dropped  indicators!
  • 21. Overlap  Test  –  More  data  is  beUer,   but  make  sure  it  is  not  the  same   data!
  • 25. PopulaLon  Test   •  Let  us  use  the  ASN  and   GeoIP  databases  that  we   used  to  enrich  our  data  as  a   reference  of  the  “true”   populaaon.     •  But,  but,  human  beings  are   unpredictable!  We  will   never  be  able  to  forecast   this!      
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Can  we  get  a  beSer  look?   •  Don’t  like  squinang  either   •  Staasacal  inference-­‐based  comparison  models   (hypothesis  tesang)   •  Exact  binomial  tests  (when  we  have  the  “true”  pop)   •  Chi-­‐squared  proporaon  tests  (similar  to   independence  tests)    
  • 29. Can  we  get  a  beSer  look?   •  We  can  beUer  esamate,  with  confidence  intervals,  our   measures  of  error.   •  Also,  p-­‐values!  (with  apologies  to  Alex  HuUon)   •  We  promise  to  be  very  conservaave  in  using  them.    
  • 30.
  • 31. Hacker  Spirit  Animal™  Guide   •  US  –  Eagle   •  CA  –  Moose   •  FR  –  Frog   •  GB  –  Bulldog   •  AU  –  Koala   •  BR  –  Capybara  /  Toucan   •  Texas  –  Armadillo   •  Disclaimer:  we  do  not  endorse  Geolocaaon-­‐based  aUribuaon  
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Introducing  COMBINE   •  Harvesang  feeds   takes  some  work.   •  Most  of  us  let   somebody  else  do  it   without  thinking   about  what  it   actually  takes.  
  • 37. Introducing  COMBINE   •  Components:   1.  Reaper  gathers  the  threat  data  directly  from  feeds.   2.  Thresher  normalizes  it  into  a  simplisac  data  model.   3.  Winnower  opaonally  performs  basic  validaaon  or   enrichment.   4.  Baler  transforms  the  data  into  CybOX,  CSV,  JSON,  and   CIM.  (Only  CSV  and  JSON  work  right  now).  Could  also   write  others  fairly  easily.  (nudge  nudge,  wink  wink)  
  • 38. Introducing  COMBINE   •  Always  trying  to  feed   it  more.  Lots  of   possibiliaes,   including  your  own   data  sources.   •  We  clearly  do  NOT   endorse  any  included   feeds.    
  • 39. Introducing  COMBINE   •  Enrichments  -­‐  think   metadata.     •  AS,  geolocaaon   •  DNS  resoluaons   courtesy  of  Farsight   DNSDB     •  Ask  them  for  an   API  key  to  test  it,  tell   them  Alex  Pinto   sent  you  ;)    
  • 40. MLSec  Project   •  Both  projects  have  been  released  as  GPLv3  by  MLSec  Project   •  Will  replace  the  internal  versions  we  have  on  the  main  code     •  Looking  for  paracipants  and  data  sharing  agreements   •  Liked  TIQ-­‐TEST?  We  can  benchmark  your  private  feeds  using   these  and  other  techniques     •  Visit  hSps://www.mlsecproject.org  ,  message  @MLSecProject   or  just  e-­‐mail  me.!
  • 41. Take  Aways   •  Analyze  your  data.     •  Extract  value  from  it!   •  Try  before  you  buy!  Different  test   results  mean  different  things  to   different  orgs.   •  Use  the  tools!  Suggest  new  tests!   •  Share  data  with  us!  We  take  good   care  of  it,  make  sure  it  gets   proper  exercise.    
  • 42. Thanks!   •  Q&A?   •  Feedback!   Alex  Pinto     @alexcpsec   @MLSecProject   ”The  measure  of  intelligence  is  the  ability  to  change."                  -­‐  Albert  Einstein     Kyle  Maxwell   @kylemaxwell