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communication, strategy & leadership architects 5 key points about the republican options to win the White Hose Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romneys campaign has secured a majority of delegates, elected in the primary elections, who, at the August GOP Tampa Convention -‐ (FL) one of the swing states -‐, will nominate him as the Republican candidate on the November 6th Presidential Election. A year after the New Hampshires announcement of his second presidential bid; leading the race from the very beginning stages; having exceeded 8 contenders and 26 public debates, the time has come for Romney to build the final narrative and credible alternative to President Obama he wants to represent. The axes on which to build Romneys essence are: 1. Center vs Extrem Will Romney be able to dispute the political and electoral center to president Obama? Will Romney be able to convince the most mythologized republican, conservative, tea partier voter? Karl Rove would answer yes to both questions. Its not a matter of choice, or one or the other, but a win-‐win answer: Yes its possible dispute the centrist voters to Obama and ensure more emotional and traditional Republican voter for Romney. Really? Is it possible to square this circle? It seems this is the most favorite option on the Republican presidential team. Dismissed the option of burying the hatchet and a staggering a big hug with Sarah Palin -‐the emotional distance, wounds and the allegations untrue Conservative have led the relationship between the two leaders to a point of no return-‐, especially after the former Alaska Governor had publicly endorsed Newt Gingrich, and praised Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, Romney keeps flirting with acting roles like Ted Nugent who rises the hate speech and radical patriotism flag; or Donald Trump who is reinforcing the birther cause: denying legitimacy and rights of citizenship to president Obama, accusing him of not being born in the US. Currently Romney is distancing himself from these individuals but the final picture with them aims to bring on the candidate on sectors with great organization, noise making and influence skills. Is it enough? -‐ On Foreign Policy: Romneys positioning shows the traditional GOP muscle and rigidity: a hawkish hard line against Iran and North Korea; enlisting Russian megalomania and president Putins anxiety of power enemies; opposing the White House "indulgency" with the Arabs and turned back point on traditional Israel ally, even encouraged Prime Minister Netanyahu to adopt more hostile attitudes. "Cutting federal spending yes, but not on National Security and Defense matters" appealing to patriotism. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 2 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects -‐ On Economics: it will be the main issue of this election. The Candidates efforts will be focused on -‐ decreasingly-‐ Middle Class. Romneys team attacks: "Obama is not ready, he has no experience in the private sector and points out the failure of the president decisions as responsible for the citizens staggering economic fragility. Instead Mitt Romney has created jobs, has created wealth and knows the course the economy needs: freer markets access and lower taxes. Is this the direction that the Romney campaign needs to win? Probably not only. Who is the real Mitt Romney and what their cores values? There is no building of leadership -‐still-‐ able to answer these questions. Is it enough to wannabe the antithesis of president Obama? Its enough for building the Romneys essence and soul? Why going negative? Romneys team has not yet found the motto of this campaign. He is a non-‐charismatic leader, with little passion. Flirting with populist Republican base does not give you the presidential credibility you need to win an election. 2. Completing the ticket: the vice-‐presidency One of the tools with greater capacity to help the Romney campaign to build their leadership style is the person who will join the Governor on the Republican ticket. This is what happened in 2008. The same expected this year. Sarah Palins vice presidential candidate appointment aroused the dormant Republican base and excited it. She attracted crowds wherever she went. Today she still feds her public lecturing in a full populist mode and connecting very well with the audience. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 3 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects Four years later the Republican campaign is looking for a similar momentum. Romney is from Massachusetts. For many Republicans, the cradle of liberal elitists. Romney is disconnected to the partys traditional religious base. Eve his Governor term inspired Obamacare: the health care reform of President Obama. A shock is being waited and hoped for the Republican campaign to take off, to provide consistency to the leader and also put the Democrats on the defensive. Today the choice of the young latino Senator Marco Rubio (FL) seems aborted with the last move of President Obamas order to the Department of Homeland Security to stop the deportation of young latino illegal immigrants. If the Democrats were very comfortable with the proximity of the latino community, this tactical move is like a torpedo for the Republican electoral hopes. But still sounds hard names on the vps short-‐list: for example New Jersey Governor Chris Christie; his reputation is solid and strong, has a popular oratory and results achiever and leadership skills crisis tested and well regarded by the Republican establishment. Not dismissing the names that could be a key confidence and important moral boost for the religious traditional base of the GOP as Rick Santorum -‐with a $2 milions debt campaign-‐, one of the few references able of unifying the tea party vote, with a huge strength among religious voters and with high moral values that at the same time will alienate the Republican Partys political center; or failed presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty, one of the highest rated conservative icons who left the presidential race in August last year. On the other hand we have the case of Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who has been able to spread the excitement and hope among younger voters, with his libertarian ideas and speeches. Lets pay attention to the movements of Dr. Pauls campaign, who want to amplify their influence, not only with regard to the Republican convention, but looking ahead in the future. Despite its age, the future of the party will pass through the hands of the Congressman paulites and his son Rand, Senator from Kentucky. Theres always room for a surprise and non-‐consolidated names at national level like the Ohio Senator Robert Portman. Completing the presidential ticket is a clear and bold gesture to determine the strategy behind this movement. 3. Ideas vs attacking Positive or negative Campaigning? Poetry or prose? Depending the option each team chooses each well know the emotional state of mind of the candidates: who feels himself as a leader/front-‐runner/winner and who is able to set the campaign pace and who will tow and go defensive. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 4 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects Understanding the nuances and electoral dynamics favors the ideal context for combat, as evidenced by the election ads and video-‐politics of both campaigns. Beyond that noise we can distinguishing features about the position and where the teams put different accents. In the case of President Obama, the first announcement of moving towards the recognition of gay marriage, plus the more powerful gesture to the Latino community stopping deportation of young latinos put on the table a campaign of ideas and values. More movements like this ones are to come. Newsweek cover. Romneys campaign is building the candidates frame through a belligerent tone, accusing attitude and little positive active proposal ideas. Today the Republican campaign has not yet unveil the "expected" economic, education, immigration and energy plans. The goal is to destroy and bring down the opponent. All efforts are focused on this goal: not defining candidate Romney on the major issues. The Obama campaign leads, only leaves space for the Republican campaign to react, usually on the defensive -‐ and shuns personal hunting away from exploiting the religious Mormon Romney. While the Republican campaign is entertained with the fireworks on legitimacy of the president or whether or not born on U.S. soil. In the end its all about style. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 5 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects 4. Demographic targets and swing states Looking at detail the key demographic groups who will decide this election: -‐ Women: in 2008 56% voted for Obama, 43% form McCain; Women out-‐voted Men more than 10 Milion votes. 66% of the 157 million US women are registered to vote, according to the U.S. Census. Birth control, reproductive rights and especially the family model, in which Ann Romney or Karen Santorum are becoming an icon of this policy -‐they stayed home to care & rise their families-‐ and equal pay will be the focus of the election battle. The religious bias of these issues enhances both campaigns to become entrenched in traditional positions and to use common myths. An approach for fairer treatment for women and appeal to their freedom and economic independence is in favor of the Democrats. -‐ White men: the large pool of traditional Republican votes. This is where the Republican campaign plays on more favorable terms. But this social group is becoming smaller and the future trend is to become less decisive and influent. This is one of the black holes of the Obama campaign. -‐ Latino: Marco Rubio was one of the Republican icons for a generation that exemplified the social upcoming lift that works and that the GOP is not hostile to the latino community, despite some voices and initiatives of the party meaning to punish anything related to immigration. However, among other important positions in government, Sonia Sotomayor was the first Latina appointed to the Supreme Court by President Obama. The pressure of the Latino community organized around the National Council of La Raza, has some results with the announcement of the president to stop deportations of undocumented Latino youth. This gesture is a #GameChanger making the Latino community even closer to Democrats. -‐ Suburbans: a demographic increasingly important group in the US social geography since the 80s; more and more articulate and very heterogeneous. They run away from the extremes. They feel comfortable in the center and on social moderation: the favor on family new forms, the extent of freedoms and civil rights, like cultural diversity is most welcome. In this scenario the Republican campaign suffers a lot to connect with voters. -‐ Milennials: despite the frame of change and hope Obamas campaign in 2008, this group went basically to Democrats, the reality of Government and the fragile economic time make them today as less favorable to the President . #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 6 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects But a too conservative Republican Party campaign would place this demographic back again on Democrats. The last months of this campaign, especially in economic terms and concepts such as effort, meritocracy and entrepreneurship will be key to approach milennials preferences. -‐ Religious: despite the fact that Romney does not inspire or mobilize these voters, Obamas ideas are perceived as aggression. Based on the commitments and the person accompanying Romney on the presidential ticket, will make this well-‐organized and active minority getting involved in the campaign or staying home. -‐ The Middle Class: No one can consider winning an election without their support. Again it will be decisive and a key player. Messages on economic plans and recovery of confidence will be essential to approach these voters. However this demographic and economic group is declining. Every time more and more people are falling outside. Soon someone will be asked not to leave orphans these voices and avoiding a huge mistake of important consequences. Who will lead and who give credibility to these people? Given these social cleavages, and their distribution on the different electoral districts and states, we have the clues about who will end up winning on November 6. There is no poll today stating a Republican victory. Theres only disagreement on seizing the distance between Obama and Romney. Source: www.nytimes.com #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 7 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects Related to the swing states: all surveys show that states where the presidency will be decided are Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Ohio. The ideas, the proposals, the speeches, the tone, the approach and the attitude of each candidate will be decisive in the final outcome. 5. The Digital campaign Fundraising is the cornerstones architecture of any campaign. No money means no team, no research/polls/surveys, no ads, no TV airtime, neither digital campaign or consultants. Political Parties and candidates make donations and fund their essential leit motive. PACs and SuperPACS (less transparency, accountability, limits to the amounts donated, not identifying donors... requirements) are the blood heart engine of campaigns. During the first quarter of 2012, the Romney campaign and the RNC raised $107 million USD. While President Obama and the DNC have collected during the same period $127 million. In May the Romeny-‐GOP campaign raised $77 milions while the Obama-‐DNC $61 milions. This week the Federal Election Commission (FEC) has authorized to extend the campaigns fundraising through text messaging apps on mobile devices. 40% of US Americans have already smartphones. Ethical considerations aside, this money raised is used, for example, to give the campaign the state of the art technological tools to easing the listening, contact and engage with voters. A good test of the campaigns commitment to innovation is the digital campaign. While Romneys campaign will based on TV -‐$1.2 Billion Dolars (€ 950 millions) are stimated on TV ads-‐ which remains the most powerful tool to amplify the message and election ads, we see a Republican digital campaign very similar to 2008, the same use and very little new. #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 8 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects While the Obama campaign has mastered the digital campaign and dont just think digital campaign is a one more seat in the war-‐room, but the whole campaign is already digital, it is thought in digital, is designed in digital and is lived in digital: -‐ Research tools micro and nano targeting to adapt e-‐mail & digital messages and make them effective and decisive on voters as the result of the power of information and statistics; -‐ Development of online donors strategy and easing the whole procedure; -‐ Smart digital ads; -‐ Regional Digital Directors campaign in all states, counties and districts: the campaign is becoming the adding of self-‐micro-‐campaigns that make a huge noise digital movements. The difference between the two campaigns is significant, the results surely will be the same. Not only for the purpose of the campaign on November 6, but for the future. The databases are real treasures and paths to victory in the future. Conclusion Source: www.mittromney.com Mitt Romney: a leader who has not yet been defined yet; which leadership is built by opposition; non charismatic, not exciting neither motivating his own party base; going negative; without taking the initiative; on the defensive. Yet to find his history and to show who really he is and believes ... #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 9 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro
communication, strategy & leadership architects This does not mean the election is decided and that the result will be presumed. NO. The result will be tighter than we can imagine. But the Republican candidate could win if he takes action and not be limited only to collect and promote disenchantment with President Obama. If the conditions do not change Obama can lose the election, by the now time Romney seems not to want to win. @aleixcuberes is partner & consulant at @ingenia_pro #newCommunication #newLeadership #newPolitics 10 www.ingenia-‐pro.com @ingenia_pro