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Mitt Romney's xrayed 2012 Presidential Campaign

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Mitt Romney's xrayed 2012 Presidential Campaign

  1. 1. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 Mitt  Romney                                                                                                                                    Source:  www.mittromney.com                                                                                             #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   1   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  2. 2. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 5  key  points  about  the  republican  options  to  win  the  White  Hose         Former  Massachusetts  Governor  Mitt  Romneys  campaign  has  secured  a  majority  of  delegates,  elected   in  the  primary  elections,  who,  at  the  August  GOP  Tampa  Convention  -­‐  (FL)  one  of  the  swing  states  -­‐,  will   nominate  him  as  the  Republican  candidate  on  the  November  6th  Presidential  Election.     A  year  after  the  New  Hampshires  announcement  of  his  second  presidential  bid;  leading  the  race  from   the  very  beginning  stages;  having  exceeded  8  contenders  and  26  public  debates,  the  time  has  come  for   Romney  to  build  the  final  narrative  and  credible  alternative  to  President  Obama  he  wants  to  represent.     The  axes  on  which  to  build  Romneys  essence  are:       1.  Center  vs  Extrem       Will  Romney  be  able  to  dispute  the  political  and  electoral  center  to  president  Obama?   Will  Romney  be  able  to  convince  the  most  mythologized  republican,  conservative,  tea  partier  voter?     Karl   Rove  would  answer  yes  to  both  questions.  Its  not  a  matter  of  choice,  or  one  or  the  other,  but  a     win-­‐win  answer:   Yes   its   possible   dispute   the   centrist   voters   to   Obama   and   ensure   more   emotional   and   traditional  Republican  voter  for  Romney.       Really?  Is  it  possible  to  square  this  circle?       It  seems  this  is  the  most  favorite  option  on  the  Republican  presidential  team.     Dismissed  the  option  of  burying  the  hatchet  and  a  staggering  a  big  hug  with  Sarah  Palin  -­‐the  emotional   distance,  wounds  and  the  allegations   untrue   Conservative  have  led  the   relationship   between   the   two   leaders  to  a  point  of  no  return-­‐,  especially  after  the  former  Alaska  Governor  had  publicly  endorsed  Newt   Gingrich,   and   praised   Rick   Santorum   and   Ron   Paul,   Romney   keeps   flirting   with   acting   roles   like   Ted   Nugent  who  rises  the  hate  speech  and  radical  patriotism  flag;  or  Donald   Trump  who  is  reinforcing  the   birther   cause:   denying   legitimacy   and   rights   of   citizenship   to   president   Obama,   accusing   him   of   not   being  born  in  the  US.     Currently   Romney   is   distancing   himself   from   these   individuals   but   the   final   picture   with   them   aims   to   bring   on   the   candidate   on   sectors   with   great   organization,   noise   making   and   influence   skills.   Is   it   enough?     -­‐  On  Foreign   Policy:  Romneys  positioning  shows  the  traditional  GOP  muscle  and  rigidity:  a  hawkish  hard   line  against  Iran  and  North  Korea;  enlisting  Russian  megalomania  and  president  Putins  anxiety  of  power   enemies;  opposing  the  White  House  "indulgency"  with  the  Arabs  and  turned  back  point  on  traditional   Israel  ally,  even  encouraged  Prime  Minister  Netanyahu  to  adopt  more  hostile  attitudes.  "Cutting  federal   spending  yes,  but  not  on  National  Security  and  Defense  matters"  appealing  to  patriotism.     #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   2   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  3. 3. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 -­‐   On   Economics:   it   will   be   the   main   issue   of   this   election.   The   Candidates   efforts   will   be   focused   on   -­‐ decreasingly-­‐  Middle  Class.  Romneys  team  attacks:  "Obama  is  not  ready,   he  has  no  experience  in  the   private   sector   and   points   out   the   failure   of   the   president   decisions   as   responsible   for   the   citizens   staggering   economic   fragility.   Instead   Mitt   Romney   has   created   jobs,   has   created   wealth   and   knows   the   course  the  economy  needs:  freer  markets  access  and  lower  taxes.     Is  this  the  direction  that  the  Romney  campaign  needs  to  win?  Probably  not  only.     Who  is  the  real  Mitt  Romney  and  what  their  cores  values?  There  is  no  building  of  leadership  -­‐still-­‐  able   to  answer  these  questions.     Is   it   enough   to   wannabe   the   antithesis   of   president   Obama?   Its   enough   for   building   the   Romneys   essence  and  soul?  Why  going  negative?     Romneys  team  has  not  yet  found  the   motto  of  this  campaign.  He  is  a  non-­‐charismatic  leader,  with  little   passion.  Flirting  with  populist  Republican  base  does  not  give  you  the  presidential  credibility  you  need  to   win  an  election.       2.  Completing  the  ticket:  the  vice-­‐presidency       One  of  the  tools  with  greater  capacity  to  help  the  Romney  campaign  to  build  their  leadership  style  is  the   person  who  will  join  the  Governor  on  the  Republican  ticket.  This  is  what  happened  in  2008.  The  same   expected   this   year.   Sarah   Palins   vice   presidential   candidate   appointment   aroused   the   dormant   Republican   base   and   excited   it.   She   attracted   crowds   wherever   she   went.   Today   she   still   feds   her   public   lecturing  in  a  full  populist  mode  and  connecting  very  well  with  the  audience.                                                         #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   3   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  4. 4. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 Four   years   later   the   Republican   campaign   is   looking   for   a   similar   momentum.   Romney   is   from   Massachusetts.   For   many   Republicans,   the   cradle   of   liberal   elitists.   Romney   is   disconnected   to   the   partys  traditional  religious  base.  Eve  his  Governor  term  inspired  Obamacare:  the  health  care  reform  of   President  Obama.     A  shock  is  being  waited  and  hoped  for  the  Republican  campaign  to  take  off,  to  provide  consistency  to   the  leader  and  also  put  the  Democrats  on  the  defensive.     Today   the   choice   of   the   young   latino   Senator   Marco   Rubio   (FL)   seems   aborted   with   the   last   move   of   President   Obamas   order   to   the   Department   of   Homeland   Security   to   stop   the   deportation   of   young   latino   illegal   immigrants.   If   the   Democrats   were   very   comfortable   with   the   proximity   of   the   latino   community,  this  tactical  move  is  like  a  torpedo  for  the  Republican  electoral  hopes.       But  still  sounds  hard  names  on  the  vps  short-­‐list:  for  example  New  Jersey  Governor  Chris   Christie;  his   reputation   is   solid   and   strong,   has   a   popular   oratory   and   results   achiever   and   leadership   skills   crisis   tested  and  well  regarded  by  the  Republican  establishment.     Not  dismissing  the    names  that  could  be  a  key  confidence  and  important  moral  boost  for  the  religious   traditional   base   of   the   GOP   as   Rick   Santorum   -­‐with   a   $2   milions   debt   campaign-­‐,   one   of   the   few   references   able   of   unifying   the   tea   party   vote,   with   a   huge   strength   among   religious   voters   and   with   high   moral   values   that   at   the   same   time   will   alienate   the   Republican   Partys   political   center;   or   failed   presidential   candidate   Tim   Pawlenty,   one   of   the   highest   rated   conservative   icons   who   left   the   presidential  race  in  August  last  year.     On  the  other  hand  we  have  the  case  of  Texas  Congressman  Ron  Paul,  who  has  been  able  to  spread  the   excitement  and  hope  among  younger  voters,  with  his  libertarian  ideas  and  speeches.  Lets  pay  attention   to  the  movements  of  Dr.  Pauls  campaign,  who  want  to  amplify  their  influence,  not  only  with  regard  to   the  Republican  convention,  but  looking  ahead  in  the  future.  Despite  its  age,  the  future  of  the  party  will   pass  through  the  hands  of  the  Congressman  paulites  and  his  son  Rand,  Senator  from  Kentucky.     Theres  always  room  for  a  surprise  and  non-­‐consolidated  names  at  national  level  like  the  Ohio  Senator   Robert  Portman.     Completing   the   presidential   ticket   is   a   clear   and   bold   gesture   to   determine   the   strategy   behind   this   movement.       3.  Ideas  vs  attacking       Positive  or  negative  Campaigning?  Poetry  or  prose?     Depending   the   option   each   team   chooses   each   well   know   the   emotional   state   of   mind   of   the   candidates:  who  feels  himself  as  a  leader/front-­‐runner/winner  and  who  is  able  to  set  the  campaign  pace   and  who  will  tow  and  go  defensive.     #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   4   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  5. 5. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 Understanding  the  nuances  and  electoral  dynamics  favors  the  ideal  context  for  combat,  as  evidenced  by   the   election   ads   and   video-­‐politics   of   both   campaigns.   Beyond   that   noise   we   can   distinguishing   features   about  the  position  and  where  the  teams  put  different  accents.     In   the   case   of   President   Obama,   the   first   announcement   of   moving   towards   the   recognition   of   gay   marriage,   plus   the   more   powerful   gesture   to   the   Latino   community   stopping   deportation   of   young   latinos  put  on  the  table  a  campaign  of  ideas  and  values.  More  movements  like  this  ones  are  to  come.                                                                                     Newsweek  cover.     Romneys  campaign  is  building  the  candidates  frame  through  a  belligerent  tone,  accusing  attitude  and   little  positive  active  proposal  ideas.  Today  the  Republican  campaign  has  not  yet  unveil  the  "expected"   economic,   education,   immigration   and   energy   plans.   The   goal   is   to   destroy   and   bring   down   the   opponent.  All  efforts  are  focused  on  this  goal:  not  defining  candidate  Romney  on  the  major  issues.     The   Obama   campaign   leads,   only   leaves   space   for   the   Republican   campaign   to   react,   usually   on   the   defensive  -­‐  and  shuns  personal  hunting  away  from  exploiting  the  religious  Mormon  Romney.  While  the   Republican   campaign   is   entertained   with   the   fireworks   on   legitimacy   of   the   president   or   whether   or   not   born  on  U.S.  soil.  In  the  end  its  all  about  style.   #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   5   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  6. 6. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                   4.  Demographic  targets  and  swing  states       Looking  at  detail  the  key  demographic  groups  who  will  decide  this  election:       -­‐  Women:  in  2008  56%  voted  for  Obama,  43%  form  McCain;  Women  out-­‐voted  Men  more  than     10   Milion   votes.   66%   of   the   157   million   US   women   are   registered   to   vote,   according   to   the   U.S.     Census.         Birth   control,   reproductive   rights   and   especially   the   family   model,   in   which   Ann   Romney   or     Karen   Santorum   are   becoming   an   icon   of   this   policy     -­‐they   stayed   home   to   care   &   rise   their     families-­‐  and  equal  pay  will  be  the  focus  of  the  election  battle.       The   religious   bias   of   these   issues   enhances   both   campaigns   to   become   entrenched   in     traditional  positions  and  to  use  common  myths.  An  approach  for  fairer  treatment  for  women     and  appeal  to  their  freedom  and  economic  independence  is  in  favor  of  the  Democrats.         -­‐   White   men:   the   large   pool   of   traditional   Republican   votes.   This   is   where   the   Republican     campaign   plays   on   more   favorable   terms.   But   this   social   group   is   becoming   smaller   and   the     future  trend  is  to  become  less  decisive  and  influent.  This  is  one  of  the  black  holes  of  the  Obama     campaign.           -­‐   Latino:   Marco   Rubio   was   one   of   the   Republican   icons   for   a   generation   that   exemplified   the     social  upcoming  lift  that  works  and  that  the  GOP  is  not  hostile  to  the  latino  community,  despite     some  voices  and  initiatives  of  the  party  meaning  to  punish  anything  related  to  immigration.       However,   among   other   important   positions   in   government,   Sonia   Sotomayor   was   the   first     Latina   appointed   to   the   Supreme   Court   by   President   Obama.   The   pressure   of   the   Latino     community   organized   around   the   National   Council   of   La   Raza,   has   some   results   with   the     announcement   of   the   president   to   stop   deportations   of   undocumented   Latino   youth.   This     gesture  is  a  #GameChanger  making  the  Latino  community  even  closer  to  Democrats.         -­‐  Suburbans:  a  demographic  increasingly  important  group  in  the  US  social  geography  since  the     80s;   more   and   more   articulate   and   very   heterogeneous.   They   run   away   from   the   extremes.     They  feel  comfortable  in  the  center  and  on  social  moderation:  the  favor  on  family  new  forms,     the  extent  of  freedoms  and  civil  rights,  like  cultural  diversity  is  most  welcome.       In  this  scenario  the  Republican  campaign  suffers  a  lot  to  connect  with  voters.         -­‐  Milennials:  despite  the  frame  of  change  and  hope  Obamas  campaign  in  2008,  this  group  went     basically   to   Democrats,   the   reality   of   Government   and   the   fragile   economic   time   make   them     today  as  less  favorable  to  the  President  .   #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   6   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  7. 7. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                     But   a   too   conservative   Republican   Party   campaign   would   place   this   demographic   back   again   on     Democrats.  The  last  months  of  this  campaign,  especially  in  economic  terms  and  concepts  such     as  effort,  meritocracy  and  entrepreneurship  will  be  key  to  approach  milennials  preferences.         -­‐   Religious:   despite   the   fact   that   Romney   does   not   inspire   or   mobilize   these   voters,   Obamas     ideas   are   perceived   as   aggression.   Based   on   the   commitments   and   the   person   accompanying     Romney   on   the   presidential   ticket,   will   make   this   well-­‐organized   and   active   minority   getting     involved  in  the  campaign  or  staying  home.         -­‐  The  Middle  Class:  No  one  can  consider  winning  an  election  without  their  support.  Again  it  will     be  decisive  and  a  key  player.  Messages  on  economic  plans  and  recovery  of  confidence  will  be     essential  to  approach  these  voters.       However   this   demographic   and   economic   group   is   declining.  Every   time  more  and  more  people     are   falling   outside.   Soon   someone   will   be   asked   not   to   leave   orphans   these   voices   and   avoiding     a   huge   mistake   of   important   consequences.   Who   will   lead   and   who   give   credibility   to   these     people?       Given   these   social   cleavages,   and   their   distribution   on   the   different   electoral   districts   and   states,   we   have  the  clues  about  who  will  end  up  winning  on  November  6.     There   is   no   poll   today   stating   a   Republican   victory.   Theres   only   disagreement   on   seizing   the   distance   between  Obama  and  Romney.         Source:  www.nytimes.com       #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   7   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  8. 8. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 Related   to   the   swing   states:   all   surveys   show   that   states   where   the   presidency   will   be   decided   are   Colorado,  Florida,  Iowa  and  Ohio.  The  ideas,  the  proposals,  the  speeches,  the  tone,  the  approach  and   the  attitude  of  each  candidate  will  be  decisive  in  the  final  outcome.           5.  The  Digital  campaign         Fundraising   is   the   cornerstones   architecture   of   any   campaign.   No   money   means   no   team,   no   research/polls/surveys,  no  ads,  no  TV  airtime,  neither  digital  campaign  or  consultants.  Political  Parties   and  candidates  make  donations  and  fund  their  essential  leit  motive.     PACs  and  SuperPACS  (less  transparency,  accountability,  limits  to  the  amounts  donated,  not  identifying   donors...  requirements)  are  the  blood  heart  engine  of  campaigns.  During  the  first  quarter  of  2012,  the   Romney   campaign   and   the   RNC   raised   $107   million   USD.   While   President   Obama   and   the   DNC   have   collected  during  the  same  period  $127   million.  In  May  the  Romeny-­‐GOP  campaign  raised  $77   milions   while  the  Obama-­‐DNC  $61  milions.     This  week  the  Federal   Election   Commission   (FEC)  has  authorized  to  extend  the  campaigns  fundraising   through  text  messaging  apps  on  mobile  devices.  40%  of  US  Americans  have  already  smartphones.     Ethical  considerations  aside,  this  money  raised  is  used,  for  example,  to  give  the  campaign  the  state  of   the   art   technological   tools   to   easing   the   listening,   contact   and   engage   with   voters.   A   good   test   of   the   campaigns  commitment  to  innovation  is  the  digital  campaign.     While  Romneys  campaign  will  based  on  TV  -­‐$1.2  Billion  Dolars  (€  950  millions)  are  stimated  on  TV  ads-­‐   which   remains   the   most   powerful   tool   to   amplify   the   message   and   election   ads,   we   see   a   Republican   digital  campaign  very  similar  to  2008,  the  same  use  and  very  little  new.                                                                                           #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   8   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  9. 9. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                   While   the   Obama   campaign   has   mastered   the   digital   campaign   and   dont   just   think   digital   campaign   is   a   one   more   seat   in   the   war-­‐room,   but   the   whole   campaign   is   already   digital,   it   is   thought   in   digital,   is   designed  in  digital  and  is  lived  in  digital:       -­‐  Research  tools  micro  and  nano  targeting  to  adapt  e-­‐mail  &  digital  messages  and  make  them     effective  and  decisive  on  voters  as  the  result  of  the  power  of  information  and  statistics;       -­‐  Development  of  online  donors  strategy  and  easing  the  whole  procedure;       -­‐  Smart  digital  ads;       -­‐   Regional   Digital   Directors   campaign   in   all   states,   counties   and   districts:   the   campaign   is       becoming  the    adding  of  self-­‐micro-­‐campaigns  that  make  a  huge  noise    digital  movements.       The  difference  between  the  two  campaigns  is  significant,  the  results  surely  will  be  the  same.  Not  only   for  the  purpose  of  the  campaign  on  November  6,  but  for  the  future.  The  databases  are  real  treasures   and  paths  to  victory  in  the  future.         Conclusion                                                                 Source:  www.mittromney.com       Mitt   Romney:  a  leader  who  has  not  yet  been  defined  yet;  which  leadership  is  built  by  opposition;  non   charismatic,   not   exciting   neither   motivating   his   own   party   base;   going   negative;   without   taking   the   initiative;  on  the  defensive.  Yet  to  find  his  history  and  to  show  who  really  he  is  and  believes  ...     #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   9   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro      
  10. 10. communication,  strategy  &  leadership  architects                                 This  does  not  mean  the  election  is  decided  and  that  the  result  will  be  presumed.  NO.  The  result  will  be   tighter   than   we   can   imagine.   But   the   Republican   candidate   could   win   if   he   takes   action   and   not   be   limited  only  to  collect  and  promote  disenchantment  with  President  Obama.     If  the  conditions  do  not  change  Obama  can  lose  the  election,  by  the  now  time  Romney  seems  not  to   want  to  win.       @aleixcuberes  is  partner  &  consulant  at  @ingenia_pro     #newCommunication  #newLeadership  #newPolitics   10   www.ingenia-­‐pro.com                            @ingenia_pro