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35 charts and data insights to use in your operations and tactical decision-making
29 are published for the first time in MENA
Edited By Eden Rabbie
March 2023
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023Market conditions and available pipeline, valuation benchmarks, round sizes,
founder dilution, matriculation rates, failure rates, success probabilities, and
holding period from seed to series A to series B ―— with scientific reliability.
Limited Release
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 ROADMAP
Stress Testing
January – March
Stress-test the model’s
margins of error against
2023 data not used in
building the model
0.1 α β 1.0
Limited Release
March
Charts and overall insights
shared with the community;
PDF, LinkedIn, landing
page, no marketing
Full Release
May – June
Data on sectors, in-depth
insights for application
in ops, and methodology
documentaiton
In Vivo
Q3
Joint project with
a select VC partner to verify
The Handbook’s usefulness
in real world situations
3
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 HANDBOOK NAVIGATOR
※ Alpha Version (α) This version of The Handbook is at limited release stage. Charts and insights are finalized, and methodology remarks are mentioned in the footnote
section of each slide. However, detailed sections such as sector data, in-depth insights and methodology documentation are scheduled for the full release. See: Roadmap
Copyright © 2023 Eden Rabbie and Clearworld, PO Box 415816 Dubai, UAE. This document is not financial advice. You may use any part of this document for any purpose
on condition that you link to it and cite it properly: Rabbie, Eden. (2023). The MENA Early Stage Handbook 2023. Clearworld. https://clear.world/handbook
05
Market
Situation
Pipeline noise, expected deal
flow quality, viable pipeline by
stage and geolocation
37
Crossing
To Growth Stage
Series A holding period,
series A-to-B conversion
success and failure rates,
round and ticket size
Seed Stage
Conversion success and failure
rates, premoney valuations,
round and ticket size, dilution
Highly
Experimental
Cutting-edge insights on limited
data and wide margin of error
for your experimenting: series A
and B valuations and dilution
13
47 Ending Notes
Why The Handbook was
created, why this service is free,
info on the datasets, Clearworld
and Startup Report MENA
The Road
To Series A
Seed holding period, seed-to-A
conversion success and failure
rates, round and ticket size
27
55
5
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 THE MENA VENTURE MARKET SITUATION
65% Noise
9% Zombie
26% Viable
MARKET SITUATION
6
1. What dealflow to expect in the MENA venture space?
※ Active includes companies who report their status as “Active”, including who shutdown and neglect to update their public information (for details, see: Failure Rate)
※ VC minimum criteria: Not IT development companies, marketing agencies nor similarly non-product/non-tech-based companies
※ Zombie companies: Companies who are too old to raise seed (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of 1/1/2023
Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276; 95% CI margin of error ±1%; classifier model performance: precision 93%, specificity 91%, FPR 8%
 Below 60% Noise Rate
on a per-cohort basis
since the 2016 cohort
1/4th
1 out of every 4 companies
who are still active
and self-identify as ‘startup’
in MENA today are fit for
VC minimum criteria
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
MARKET SITUATION
7
2. What dealflow quality to expect in the MENA venture space?
Improved Quality: Dealflow noise has improved since 2016
Less new outsiders are coming in; the public knows better what a ‘startup’ should be like
Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276; cohort 95% CI margin of error max values -6.8/+7.5%; model performance: precision 93%, specificity 91%, FPR 8%
48%
52%
52%
52%
54%
56%
68%
70%
72%
75%
83%
84%
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Per-Cohort Noise Rate: Percentage of new additions of IT development companies, marketing agencies and similarly
non-product/non-tech-based companies out of all companies who are listed on MENA startup discovery platforms for that year (2010-2021)
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
Noise Rate
MARKET SITUATION
8
2,886
Active ventures
in MENA today*
Share
UAE 42.9%
Egypt 20.9%
Saudi 12.8%
Rest of MENA 23.4%
Margin of error ±3%
Unfunded & pre-seed
Seed
Series A
Series B
Post-B
3. Where to find active ventures?
43% of active ventures take home in UAE
This share remains unchanged since 2017
* Additionally, 554 ventures (-7.5/+8%) are not VC-backed (PE, ICO, etc.)
Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
1804 -51/+50
858 -47/+49
153 -22/+25
56 -13/+17
15 -6/+10
62.5%
Unfunded
and Pre-seed
29.7% Seed
5.3% Series A
1.9% Series B
0.5% Post-B
9
MARKET SITUATION
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො
𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±2%
Plenty of Supply
For More
Early Stage
Investors
Two thirds of startups in MENA
are unfunded and pre-seed,
while seed makes up 80%
of the remaining pipeline
4. What stage are the active ventures in MENA?
1804 -51/+50
858 -47/+49
153 -22/+25
56 -13/+17
15 -6/+10
62.5%
Unfunded
and Pre-seed
29.7% Seed
5.3% Series A
1.9% Series B
0.5% Post-B
10
MARKET SITUATION
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො
𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±2%
The
Growth Stage
Hurdle Ahead
Series B deal flow* is increasing;
now at 153 series A companies
To put this in perspective,
MENA had as many series B
deals (≈149) in the last
five years combined
For early stage actors,
this could be a bottleneck
* Success and failure rates are covered
in a later section
11
MARKET SITUATION
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
184 -24/+27
139 -21/+24
31 -9/+13
12 -5/+9
3 -2/+6
49.9% Unfunded
+ Pre-seed
37.7% Seed
8.4% Series A
3.3% Series B
0.8% Post-B
348 -33/+36
218 -26/+30
26 -8/+12
10 -4/+9
2 -1/+6
57.6% Unfunded + Pre-seed
36.1% Seed
4.3% Series A
1.7% Series B
0.3% Post-B
845 -47/+49
296 -30/+34
68 -14/+18
21 -7/+11
8 -4/+8
68.3% Unfunded + Pre-seed
23.9% Seed
5.5% Series A
1.7% Series B
0.6% Post-B
UAEHastheLargest
PipelineAcrossStages
1.2X
the size of Saudi
and Egypt combined
3.2X
1.7X
1.8X
ACTIVE
PIPELINE SIZE
COMPARISON
5. Active Dealflow In MENA
By Stage and Geolocation
Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො
𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±3%
U
A
E
S
A
U
D
I
E
G
Y
P
T
13
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 SEED STAGE
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Failure Too early to call Success
34% 30%
60%
51%
ConversiontoSeedinMENA
Success 30%
Failure 51%
Danger Zone: By the end of 2023,
177 more startups will confirm failure –
that’s 21% of the pipeline available today
effectively getting written-off
14
SEED BENCHMARKS
※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts companies who shutdown or are too old to raise seed (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of
the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023
MENA startups sample size N=3663; conversions to seed o=1080
6. Matriculation: How many make it to seed stage, and how many never do?
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate
▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate
Cohort ►
15
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
31% 27%
69%
57%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
42%
37%
53%
44%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
37%
30%
43%
35%
Cohort ►
See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done.
MENA startups sample size N=3663; conversions to seed o=1080
SEED BENCHMARKS
Pre-Seed
Failure
Rateis
Coming
Down
Historical
change reflects
demand for seed
deals across
MENA; a sharp
rise in the blue
area shows peak
investor interest
Failure Rate = Success Rate =
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Failure Too early to call Success
▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate
▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate
27% 57% 37% 44% 30% 35%
 Highest  Highest
U A E S A U D I E G Y P T
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
16
Comparison: Years From Foundation Until First Seed Raise
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SEED BENCHMARKS
0
1
2
3
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
 1.9
 1.7
 2
 2.1 years
6. How old are the startups who get seeded in MENA?
1.7 Years in UAE, 2 Years Everywhere Else—In Line with Non-MENA
The normal range in MENA is converging and increasing since 2018, now it is between 1 and 3 years
 3
 1.1
Age At First Seed Raise
2022 and 2023
UAE 1.6 1.7
Overall MENA 1.9 1.9
Non-MENA 1.9 2.0
Saudi 2.0 2.0
Egypt 2.0 2.1
75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.1
75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 3
PROJECTION
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA seed N=899, o=487; median absolute deviation 0.920, ො
𝜎 =
0.620
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
17
SEED BENCHMARKS
13. How many investors participate in the seed round in MENA?
One, and Rarely Above Three
More Co-Invest: An uptrend led by Egypt startups is emerging,
making having 2-3 investors split the round not uncommon
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed seed rounds N=863, o=534; Egypt o=113
Investor Count At Seed Raise
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA 5 6
Egypt 1 2
Saudi 1 1
UAE 1 1
Overall MENA 1 1
75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1
75% of all MENA ≤ 2 ≤ 3
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Seed Raise (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right)
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
$0M
$5M
$10M
$15M
$20M
$25M
$30M
$35M
$40M
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
18
SEED BENCHMARKS
UAE
Highest in MENA
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=133; o=92, median absolute deviation 2.50M, ො
𝜎 =
1.686 M
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
7. What is the premoney valuation
when raising seed in MENA?
$3M
The Normal Range in MENA is $1M to $9M
UAE Leading: with a median of $5M and larger
spread, UAE is well above MENA in seed valuations
The Elite: 15% of seeded companies in MENA are
spred across a wide span between $9M and $22M
Companies above the $22M mark are outliers
19
Historical Profile: Premoney Valuation At Seed Round
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SEED BENCHMARKS
 $3.4M
 $8.4M
 $2M
Premoney Valuation At Seed Round
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA $10M $9.5M
UAE $6M $8.4M
Overall MENA $3M $3.4M
Saudi $2M $2M
Egypt $1.4M $1.4M
75% of all MENA ≥ $9M ≥ $10M
75% of all MENA ≤ $1M ≤ $1.4M
8. Trends in MENA seed round premoney valuation for 2023
UAE valuations are increasing faster than elsewhere in MENA
UAE prices are diverging, resulting in a very wide span between the median and the top 25% in MENA
 $10M
  $1.4M
$0M
$2M
$4M
$6M
$8M
$10M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
 $9.5M
PROJECTION
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=133, o=92; median absolute deviation 2.50M, ො
𝜎 =
1.686 M
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
$0M
$1M
$2M
$3M
$4M
$5M
$6M
$7M
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
20
SEED BENCHMARKS
$870k
The Normal Range in MENA is
$250k to $2.2M
Cheap Seeding in Egypt: At $500k, seed rounds in
Egypt are the smallest, but with a huge spread
The Elite: 15% of seeded companies are spred
across a very wide span between $2.2M and $5M
Companies who raise >$5.1M in seed are outliers
Egypt
Lowest in MENA
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො
𝜎 =
490 k
9. What is the funding size when
raising seed in MENA?
21
Historical Profile: Round Size At Seed Raise
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SEED BENCHMARKS
 $1M
 $1.4M
 $1.3M
Round Size At Seed Raise
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA $1.9M $2M
UAE $1.1M $1.4M
Saudi $1.1M $1.3M
Overall MENA $870k $1M
Egypt $500k $625k
75% of all MENA ≥ $250k ≥ $400k
75% of all MENA ≤ $2.2M ≤ $2.5M
10. Trends in MENA seed round size for 2023
Money Raised at Seed Stage is Going Higher, Most Significantly in Saudi
The wide span between the average and the top 25% gives lots of room for elite startups to raise more
 $2.5M
 $400k
 $2M
$0M
$1M
$2M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
 $625k
PROJECTION
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො
𝜎 =
490 k
22
SEED BENCHMARKS
12.3%
The normal dilution range in MENA is
5.4% to 21%
Buyer Power in Saudi: With a median of 16%,
dilution in Saudi is significantly higher than MENA
Seller Power: 15% of seeded companies raise at
exceptionally low dilution between 2.6% and 5.4%
Above 21% is rare, while >43.5% is outlier territory
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=116, o=78; median absolute deviation 7.62%, ො
𝜎 =
5.14
%
; Saudi o=9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
Saudi
Highest in MENA
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
11. What is the expected dilution
when raising seed in MENA?
23
Historical Profile: Dilution At Seed Raise
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SEED BENCHMARKS
 11.3%
 11%
 16%
Dilution At Seed Raise
2022 and 2023
Saudi 16% 16%
Overall MENA 12.3% 12.3%
Egypt 9% 12%
Non-MENA 10.6% 11.3%
UAE 11.7% 11%
75% of all MENA ≥ 5.4% ≥ 5.7%
75% of all MENA ≤ 21% ≤ 22%
12. Trends in MENA seed round dilution for 2023
11-12% dilution across MENA is similar to abroad, with one exception: Saudi
Despite the massive demand shock from PIF, Saudi startups don’t get the best terms on seed dilution;
Egypt shows significant rise nudging closer to Saudi, while UAE posts the lowest seed dilution in MENA
 22%
 5.7%
 12.3%
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=116, o=78; median absolute deviation 7.62%, ො
𝜎 =
5.14
%
; Saudi o=9
 12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PROJECTION
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
$0.0M
$0.5M
$1.0M
$1.5M
$2.0M
$2.5M
$3.0M
$3.5M
$4.0M
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
24
SEED BENCHMARKS
$500k
The Normal Seed Ticket Range in MENA is
$190k to $1.1M
UAE Big Spread: 40% of seeded UAE companies are
spred across a massive span between $630k and
$3.5M, setting UAE’s outlier threshold to above $3.5M
Seed rounds with >$2.5M tickets in MENA are outliers
Egypt
Lowest in MENA
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො
𝜎 =
490 k
14. What is the ticket size when
doing a seed round in MENA?
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
$0.00M
$0.25M
$0.50M
$0.75M
$1.00M
$1.25M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
25
Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Seed Raise (Uniform Split Among Participants)
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SEED BENCHMARKS
 $525k
 $670k
 $800k
Ticket Size At Seed Raise
2022 and 2023
Saudi $560k $800k
UAE $625k $670k
Overall MENA $500k $525k
Non-MENA $310k $320k
Egypt $250k $330k
75% of all MENA ≥ $190k ≥ $250k
75% of all MENA ≤ $1.1M ≤ $1.3M
15. Trends in MENA seed round tickets size for 2023
Up and Up: Seed Tickets in Saudi are Getting Expensive, Leapfrogging UAE
This further highlights the high demand and entry requirements for Saudi seed stage investing
Note how seed tickets in MENA are more expensive than Non-MENA since 2020
 $1.3M
 $250k
 $330k
PROJECTION
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො
𝜎 =
490 k
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
27
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 THE ROAD TO SERIES A
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Failure Too early to call Success
14% 14%
65%
52%
28
SEED/A BENCHMARKS
MovingFromSeedtoSeriesA
Success 14%
Failure 52%
Danger Zone: In 2024, 151 more seed
startups will confirm failure – that’s 27%
of the pipeline available today effectively
getting written off
※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts seed ventures who shutdown or are too old to raise series A (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of
the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023
MENA seed-funded sample size N=1080; conversions seed to A o=130
16. Matriculation: How many move from seed to series A, and how many never do?
▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate
▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate
Cohort ►
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
29
Cohort ►
See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done.
MENA seed-funded sample size N=1080; conversions seed to A o=130
SEED/A BENCHMARKS
At70%
FailureRate,
EgyptSeed
Ventures
NeedMore
Attention
Seed-to-A
success rate
is highest
in countries who
actively work
on developing
their post-seed
environment
Failure Rate = Success Rate =
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Failure Too early to call Success
▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate
▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate
18% 53% 16% 45% 8% 79%
 Highest
 Highest
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
15% 18%
55% 53%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
35%
16%
70%
45%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
9% 8%
76% 79%
U A E S A U D I E G Y P T
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
0
1
2
3
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
30
Comparison: Years From First Seed Raise Until First Series A Raise
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SEED/A BENCHMARKS
 2.2
 2.5 years
  2.1
17. How long does it take to move from seed stage to series A in MENA?
Seed Holding Period: 2.5 Years in Saudi, 2 Years Everywhere Else
The normal range in MENA is stable since 2020, roughly between 1 and 3 years
 3.2
 1.3
 1.4
Seed Holding Period To Series A (Years)
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA 1.6 1.4
UAE 1.9 2.1
Egypt 1.9 2.1
Overall MENA 2.0 2.2
Saudi 2.0 2.5
75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.3
75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 3.2
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA converted seed to series A N=130; o=101, median absolute deviation 0.843, ො
𝜎 =
0.569
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
31
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
20. How many investors participate in the series A round in MENA?
Three, and Rarely Above Five—Except In Egypt
The normal range in MENA has converged between 1 and 5 co-investors per series A round
Egypt companies are seeing more co-investing at series A, making up to 8 co-investors not as rare
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed series A rounds N=392, o=134; Egypt o=31
Investor Count At Series A Round
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA 6 6
Egypt 3 4
Overall MENA 3 3
UAE 2 2
Saudi 2 2
75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1
75% of all MENA ≤ 5 ≤ 5
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Series A Round (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right)
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
0
5
10
15
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
32
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
$6.7M
The normal range in MENA is
$2.4M to $15M
More Funding in UAE …and Egypt: Through only 8%
seeded companies make it to series A in Egypt,
their funding spread is similar to that in UAE
The Elite: 15% of series A companies are spred
across a wide span between $15M and $27M
Companies who raise >$34M at series A are outliers
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 4.681M, ො
𝜎 =
3.157 M
$0M
$5M
$10M
$15M
$20M
$25M
$30M
$35M
$40M
$45M
$50M
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
UAE
Highest in MENA
18. What is the funding size when
raising series A in MENA?
33
Historical Profile: Round Size At Series A Round
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
 $7M
 $10M
 $7.2M
Round Size At Series A Round
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA $10M $10M
UAE $10M $10M
Egypt $7M $9M
Saudi $7.2M $7.2M
Overall MENA $6.7M $7M
75% of all MENA ≥ $2.4M ≥ $3M
75% of all MENA ≤ $15M ≤ $16M
19. Trends in MENA series A round size for 2023
Money Raised at Series A Has Rallied Since 2020, Most Significantly in Egypt
Series A rounds in UAE are similar in size to non-MENA series A where the same investors deploy
 $16M
 $3M
 $9M
PROJECTION
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 4.681M, ො
𝜎 =
3.157 M
$0M
$5M
$10M
$15M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$0M
$2M
$4M
$6M
$8M
$10M
$12M
$14M
$16M
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
34
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
$2.2M
The normal range in MENA is
$1.2M to $5M
Volatility on the Way Up: Series A ticket sizes are
witnessing significant volatility with an increasing
number of above average tickets
Tickets above $10M at series A are outliers,
though are becoming less unlikely
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 1.236M, ො
𝜎 =
0.833 M
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
UAE
Highest in MENA
21. What is the ticket size when
doing a series A round in MENA?
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
$0M
$1M
$2M
$3M
$4M
$5M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
35
Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Series A Round (Uniform Split Among Participants)
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
 $2.5M
 $3M
 $2.7M
Ticket Size At Series A Round
2022 and 2023
UAE $3.0M $3.0M
Saudi $2.3M $2.7M
Overall MENA $2.2M $2.5M
Egypt $2.2M $2.3M
Non-MENA $1.7M $1.7M
75% of all MENA ≥ $1.1M ≥ $1.4M
75% of all MENA ≤ $4.8M ≤ $5.0M
22. Trends in MENA series A ticket size for 2023
Series A Tickets 2019 Rally Continues in MENA
As of 2021, series A tickets in MENA are pricier than non-MENA where the same investors deploy
 $5M
 $1.4M
 $2.3M
PROJECTION
 $1.7M
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 1.236M, ො
𝜎 =
0.833 M
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
37
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 CROSSING TO GROWTH STAGE
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Failure Too early to call Success
38%
27%
34% 33%
38
SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS
AdvancingFromSeriesA
Success 27%
Failure 33%
Danger Zone: By 2024, 26 more series A
ventures will confirm failure – that’s 28%
of the viable pipeline available today
※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts series A ventures who shutdown or are too old to raise B or above (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR)
as of the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023
MENA series A-funded sample size N=236; conversions to next stage o=69
23. Matriculation: How many move from series A to B, and how many never do?
▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate
▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate
Cohort ►
COUNT < 5
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
39
Cohort ►
U A E
See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done.
MENA series A-funded sample size N=236; conversions to next stage o=69
SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS
Advancing
ToGrowth
StageStill
Hasthe
Fewest
Crowd
46%
of MENA exits
after series A are
series A ventures
who don’t make
it to series B
Failure Rate = Success Rate =
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Failure Too early to call Success
▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate
▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate
32% 28% 21% 20% 26% 20%
 Highest
 Highest
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
41%
32%
37%
28%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
41%
21%
50%
20%
COUNT < 5
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
40%
26%
31%
20%
COUNT < 5
COUNT < 5
S A U D I E G Y P T
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
0
1
2
3
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
40
Comparison: Years From First Series A Raise Until the Next Stage Raise (Most Commonly Series B)
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS
  1.6
 2.1 years
 1.7
24. How long does it take to move from series A to the next stage in MENA?
Series A Holding Period: 2 Years in Saudi, Less Than 2 Years Everywhere Else
Median outside Saudi is converging rapidly; the entire MENA range is roughly between 1 and 2.5 years
 2.6
 1.2
 1.4
Series A Holding Period To Next (Years)
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA 1.4 1.4
UAE 1.6 1.6
Overall MENA 1.9 1.6
Egypt 2.0 1.7
Saudi 2.3 2.1
75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.2
75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 2.6
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA converted series A to next stage N=69, o=60; median absolute deviation 0.778, ො
𝜎 =
0.524
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
41
SERIES B BENCHMARKS
27. How many investors participate in the series B round in MENA?
Four, and Rarely Above Six
The normal range in MENA has converged between 2 and 6 co-investors per series B round
Saudi series B rounds are seeing significant increase in co-investors
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed series B rounds N=78, o=59; Saudi o=11
Investor Count At Series B Round
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA 6 6
Saudi 5 5
UAE 4 5
Overall MENA 4 4
Egypt 4 4
75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1
75% of all MENA ≤ 6 ≤ 6
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Series B Round (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right)
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
42
SERIES B BENCHMARKS
$15M
The normal range in MENA is
$6M to $30M
Similar Spreads: All MENA ranges are similar, with
notable concentration towards the lower end in Egypt
The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across
a moderate span between $30M and $50M
Companies who raise >$66M at series B are outliers
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 10.500M, ො
𝜎 =
7.082 M
$0M
$10M
$20M
$30M
$40M
$50M
$60M
$70M
$80M
$90M
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
Egypt
Concentration in
the lower quartile
25. What is the funding size when
raising series B in MENA?
43
Historical Profile: Round Size At Series B Round
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SERIES B BENCHMARKS
 $17M
 $21.6M
 $19.5M
Round Size At Series B Round
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA $23M $22M
UAE $20M $21.6M
Saudi $19M $19.5M
Overall MENA $15M $17M
Egypt $8M $10M
75% of all MENA ≥ $6M ≥ $7M
75% of all MENA ≤ $30M ≤ $31M
26. Trends in MENA series B round size for 2023
Money raised at series B in an uptrend since 2020, similar to the series A trend
Series B rounds in UAE are similar in size to non-MENA series B where the same investors deploy
 $31M
 $7M
 $10M
PROJECTION
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 10.500M, ො
𝜎 =
7.082 M
$0M
$10M
$20M
$30M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
 $22M
$0M
$5M
$10M
$15M
$20M
$25M
$30M
$35M
$40M
UAE Saudi Egypt MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
44
SERIES B BENCHMARKS
$4M
The normal range in MENA is
$2M to $11M
Volatility in UAE: Compared to tight markets
elsewhere in MENA, series B tickes in UAE
are spred very widely, thanks to MENA fintechs
choosing to be domiciled in UAE before series B
Tickets above $24M at series B are outliers in MENA
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 2.666M, ො
𝜎 =
1.798 M
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
UAE
Highest in MENA
28. What is the ticket size when
doing a series B round in MENA?
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
$0M
$2M
$4M
$6M
$8M
$10M
$12M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
45
Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Series B Round (Uniform Split Among Participants)
5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SERIES B BENCHMARKS
 $5M
 $4M
Ticket Size At Series A Round
2022 and 2023
UAE $5.8M $5.1M
Non-MENA $4.4M $4.8M
Saudi $4.4M $4.1M
Overall MENA $4.2M $4.2M
Egypt $2.3M $3.4M
75% of all MENA ≥ $2.0M ≥ $1.9M
75% of all MENA ≤ $10.9M ≤ $10.4M
29. Trends in MENA series B ticket size for 2023
Wide Range, But Strong Convergence at $4M Matching Non-MENA Tickets
Taking medians, series B tickets in MENA are pretty much standard, especially with Egypt catching up
 $10M
 $1.9M
 $3.4M
PROJECTION
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 2.666M, ො
𝜎 =
1.798 M
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
47
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
USE ONLY FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION
$0M
$25M
$50M
$75M
$100M
$125M
$150M
$175M
$200M
$225M
$250M
$275M
$300M
$325M
MENA
Non-MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
48
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
$11M
The normal range in MENA is $6M to $24M
The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across
a very wide span between $24M and $154M
Companies above the $52M mark are outliers
※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable to use for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=19, o=14; median absolute deviation 9.750M, ො
𝜎 =
6.576 M
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
30. What is the premoney valuation
when raising series A in MENA?
HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
49
Historical Profile: Premoney Valuation At Series A Round
5-yr Moving Median MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
 $9.2M
 $4.3M
31. Trends in MENA series A round premoney valuation for 2023
Series A Premoney Valuations Might Be Coming Down
The premoney range is shrinking, reflecting a monetary-tightening, risk-averse sentiment
 $19.5M
 $73M
PROJECTION
※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable to use for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=19, o=14; median absolute deviation 9.750M, ො
𝜎 =
6.576 M
$0M
$10M
$20M
$30M
$40M
$50M
$60M
$70M
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Premoney Valuation At Series A Round
2022 and 2023
Non-MENA $73M $73M
Overall MENA $11M $9.2M
75% of all MENA ≥ $6M ≥ $4.3M
75% of all MENA ≤ $24.5M ≤ $19.5M
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
50
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=17, o=12; median absolute deviation 7.95%, ො
𝜎 =
5.36
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
MENA
Non-MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
32. What is the expected dilution
when raising series A in MENA?
18.2%
Series A normal dilution range in MENA is
8.9% to 22.8%
Seller Power: 15% of companies raise at
exceptionally low dilution between 7.4% and 8.9%
Above 23% is rare, while >28% is outlier territory
HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
51
Historical Profile: Dilution At Series A Raise
5-yr Moving Median MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures*
SERIES A BENCHMARKS
 14%
Dilution At Seed Raise
2022 and 2023
Overall MENA 18% 19%
Non-MENA 14% 14%
75% of all MENA ≥ 5.4% ≥ 25%
75% of all MENA ≤ 21% ≤ 22%
33. Trends in MENA series A round dilution for 2023
19% Dilution Across MENA is Higher Than Series A Abroad
Dilution is stable since 2018, while a contracting range indicates more standardization of deal terms
 25%
 11%
 19%
※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=17, o=12; median absolute deviation 7.95%, ො
𝜎 =
5.36
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
$0M
$100M
$200M
$300M
$400M
$500M
$600M
$700M
$800M
$900M
$1,000M
$1,100M
$1,200M
$1,300M
$1,400M
$1,500M
$1,600M
$1,700M
$1,800M
MENA
Non-MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
52
SERIES B BENCHMARKS
※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; data can be used to guide further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt; non-MENA data is reliable
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=9, o=7; median absolute deviation 69.9M, ො
𝜎 =
47.1 M
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
34. What is the premoney valuation
when raising series B in MENA?
$70M
The normal range in MENA is $39M to $315M
The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across
a narrow span between $315M and $384M
Companies above the $730M mark are outliers
53
SERIES B BENCHMARKS
※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; data can be used to guide further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt; non-MENA data is reliable
L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=9, o=7; median absolute deviation 7.33%, ො
𝜎 =
4.95
%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MENA
Non-MENA
2023 Median
Anomaly
Top 10%
Top 25%
Median
Lowest 25%
Lowest 10%
35. What is the expected dilution
when raising series B in MENA?
19-24%
The biggest chunk of companies in MENA
raise series B at 19.3% to 24% dilution
Series B normal dilution range is 19.3% to 46%,
24% being the midpoint
Above 47% is rare, and below 15.5% is very rare
NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
55
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 ENDING NOTES
10,276
Companies
Self-identifying as ‘startup’,
founded in MENA
since 1/1/2008
3,663 are startups
6,613 are not, but are used
in hypothesis testing
1,140
Non-MENA
Non-MENA startups
whose cap table includes
investors from MENA or
investors active in MENA
Used for comparisons,
benchmarks and
hypothesis testing
1,345
Investors
From MENA or active
in MENA after 1/1/2010
344 MENA-based firms
1,001 Non-MENA firms
5,157
Funding Rounds
Announced after 1/1/2010
2,930 seed to post-B
1,642 with MENA ventures
1,288 Non-MENA ventures
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
DATA HANDBOOK
2023 THE DATASETS
※ The Clearworld Model is a data enrichment model built on top of publicly-accessible data from Crunchbase Pro. The Model with its 160
enrichment features is a proprietary model of Clearworld developed since 2019 to enable scientifically and statistically-sound research
into venture industries that suffer from limited data not assuming normalcy. It is a generalized model with MENA being a special case.
Clearworld do not sell, re-sell or share access to the raw dataset, which can be accessed through the Crunchbase platform independently.
56
To contact the editor:
Eden Rabbie
eden.rabbie@clear.world
+971501385522
linkedin.com/in/edenrabbie
57
Clearworld is a firm created purposefully to handle uncertainty.
We use scientific and statistical models to create quantifiable clarity,
then feed it into real-world execution models.
We specialize in orphaned strategy situations: when a goal, aspiration,
or strategic statement exists, but no clarity on execution and close to zero
meaningful action, data and insights.
A. Brick up the gaps between strategy and action
B. Shorten the lead time to execution
C. Minimize execution uncertainties in real time
D. Convert the outcome into rational entities with measurable performance
and answers to the variables needed for proper project management
Startup Report MENA (startupreport.me) is a platform developed using
the Clearworld Model. It is a public service managed by Clearworld aimed to
catalyze the innovation and venture capital industry in MENA. The intention is to
keep it free of charge.
Clearworld is a Dubai-based management consultancy, DET license 946385.
Selling data now is a mistake. In a nascent industry like MENA ventures, it is a mistake.
1. Dearth of data is a big barrier to entry in this industry. It is common to see a fund manager
who wants to dabble in early stage, and as he designs a portfolio he realizes that even the most
basic building blocks such as expected returns or holding period averages is just not there.
How bad is the discussion with your LP prospect when you promise an expected return based
on assumptions, or an allocation strategy based on famous outlier exits or, worse,
US rules of thumb. You don't have to imagine because It’s. Our. Reality.
2. New VCs in MENA don’t bring in new liquidity. Our new VCs are almost always established
by ex-employees of another local VC and rarely by new entrants. Those ex-employees carry over
the same LP network, barely adding any new liquidity to the system.
We need new liquidity to advance MENA ventures. Not more SWFs, but new market forces
with industry rationality mandates to allow for the evolutionary process in the industry to kick in.
For that to happen, we must remove all barriers to entry: good regulation, public-private
partnerships, AND complete information on what to expect when you enter.
Under these conditions, every act that may hinder access to information is a shot in the foot.
Our initiative here is to make benchmarks and insights available for all—incumbents and new
entrants. We urge everyone to help advance our tech innovation industry with a simple first step:
Embrace open data to unlock new liquidity.
Eden Rabbie
Partner - Director of Data
Science and Business
Insight at Clearworld
March 2023
T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E
D A T A H A N D B O O K
2023

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MENA Early Stage Data Handbook 2023 - Limited Release - Clearworld

  • 1. 35 charts and data insights to use in your operations and tactical decision-making 29 are published for the first time in MENA Edited By Eden Rabbie March 2023 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023Market conditions and available pipeline, valuation benchmarks, round sizes, founder dilution, matriculation rates, failure rates, success probabilities, and holding period from seed to series A to series B ―— with scientific reliability. Limited Release
  • 2. T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 ROADMAP Stress Testing January – March Stress-test the model’s margins of error against 2023 data not used in building the model 0.1 α β 1.0 Limited Release March Charts and overall insights shared with the community; PDF, LinkedIn, landing page, no marketing Full Release May – June Data on sectors, in-depth insights for application in ops, and methodology documentaiton In Vivo Q3 Joint project with a select VC partner to verify The Handbook’s usefulness in real world situations
  • 3. 3 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 HANDBOOK NAVIGATOR ※ Alpha Version (α) This version of The Handbook is at limited release stage. Charts and insights are finalized, and methodology remarks are mentioned in the footnote section of each slide. However, detailed sections such as sector data, in-depth insights and methodology documentation are scheduled for the full release. See: Roadmap Copyright © 2023 Eden Rabbie and Clearworld, PO Box 415816 Dubai, UAE. This document is not financial advice. You may use any part of this document for any purpose on condition that you link to it and cite it properly: Rabbie, Eden. (2023). The MENA Early Stage Handbook 2023. Clearworld. https://clear.world/handbook 05 Market Situation Pipeline noise, expected deal flow quality, viable pipeline by stage and geolocation 37 Crossing To Growth Stage Series A holding period, series A-to-B conversion success and failure rates, round and ticket size Seed Stage Conversion success and failure rates, premoney valuations, round and ticket size, dilution Highly Experimental Cutting-edge insights on limited data and wide margin of error for your experimenting: series A and B valuations and dilution 13 47 Ending Notes Why The Handbook was created, why this service is free, info on the datasets, Clearworld and Startup Report MENA The Road To Series A Seed holding period, seed-to-A conversion success and failure rates, round and ticket size 27 55
  • 4.
  • 5. 5 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 THE MENA VENTURE MARKET SITUATION
  • 6. 65% Noise 9% Zombie 26% Viable MARKET SITUATION 6 1. What dealflow to expect in the MENA venture space? ※ Active includes companies who report their status as “Active”, including who shutdown and neglect to update their public information (for details, see: Failure Rate) ※ VC minimum criteria: Not IT development companies, marketing agencies nor similarly non-product/non-tech-based companies ※ Zombie companies: Companies who are too old to raise seed (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of 1/1/2023 Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276; 95% CI margin of error ±1%; classifier model performance: precision 93%, specificity 91%, FPR 8%  Below 60% Noise Rate on a per-cohort basis since the 2016 cohort 1/4th 1 out of every 4 companies who are still active and self-identify as ‘startup’ in MENA today are fit for VC minimum criteria NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 7. MARKET SITUATION 7 2. What dealflow quality to expect in the MENA venture space? Improved Quality: Dealflow noise has improved since 2016 Less new outsiders are coming in; the public knows better what a ‘startup’ should be like Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276; cohort 95% CI margin of error max values -6.8/+7.5%; model performance: precision 93%, specificity 91%, FPR 8% 48% 52% 52% 52% 54% 56% 68% 70% 72% 75% 83% 84% 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Per-Cohort Noise Rate: Percentage of new additions of IT development companies, marketing agencies and similarly non-product/non-tech-based companies out of all companies who are listed on MENA startup discovery platforms for that year (2010-2021) NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE Noise Rate
  • 8. MARKET SITUATION 8 2,886 Active ventures in MENA today* Share UAE 42.9% Egypt 20.9% Saudi 12.8% Rest of MENA 23.4% Margin of error ±3% Unfunded & pre-seed Seed Series A Series B Post-B 3. Where to find active ventures? 43% of active ventures take home in UAE This share remains unchanged since 2017 * Additionally, 554 ventures (-7.5/+8%) are not VC-backed (PE, ICO, etc.) Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 9. 1804 -51/+50 858 -47/+49 153 -22/+25 56 -13/+17 15 -6/+10 62.5% Unfunded and Pre-seed 29.7% Seed 5.3% Series A 1.9% Series B 0.5% Post-B 9 MARKET SITUATION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො 𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±2% Plenty of Supply For More Early Stage Investors Two thirds of startups in MENA are unfunded and pre-seed, while seed makes up 80% of the remaining pipeline 4. What stage are the active ventures in MENA?
  • 10. 1804 -51/+50 858 -47/+49 153 -22/+25 56 -13/+17 15 -6/+10 62.5% Unfunded and Pre-seed 29.7% Seed 5.3% Series A 1.9% Series B 0.5% Post-B 10 MARKET SITUATION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො 𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±2% The Growth Stage Hurdle Ahead Series B deal flow* is increasing; now at 153 series A companies To put this in perspective, MENA had as many series B deals (≈149) in the last five years combined For early stage actors, this could be a bottleneck * Success and failure rates are covered in a later section
  • 11. 11 MARKET SITUATION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 184 -24/+27 139 -21/+24 31 -9/+13 12 -5/+9 3 -2/+6 49.9% Unfunded + Pre-seed 37.7% Seed 8.4% Series A 3.3% Series B 0.8% Post-B 348 -33/+36 218 -26/+30 26 -8/+12 10 -4/+9 2 -1/+6 57.6% Unfunded + Pre-seed 36.1% Seed 4.3% Series A 1.7% Series B 0.3% Post-B 845 -47/+49 296 -30/+34 68 -14/+18 21 -7/+11 8 -4/+8 68.3% Unfunded + Pre-seed 23.9% Seed 5.5% Series A 1.7% Series B 0.6% Post-B UAEHastheLargest PipelineAcrossStages 1.2X the size of Saudi and Egypt combined 3.2X 1.7X 1.8X ACTIVE PIPELINE SIZE COMPARISON 5. Active Dealflow In MENA By Stage and Geolocation Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො 𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±3% U A E S A U D I E G Y P T
  • 12.
  • 13. 13 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 SEED STAGE
  • 14. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success 34% 30% 60% 51% ConversiontoSeedinMENA Success 30% Failure 51% Danger Zone: By the end of 2023, 177 more startups will confirm failure – that’s 21% of the pipeline available today effectively getting written-off 14 SEED BENCHMARKS ※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts companies who shutdown or are too old to raise seed (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023 MENA startups sample size N=3663; conversions to seed o=1080 6. Matriculation: How many make it to seed stage, and how many never do? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate Cohort ►
  • 15. 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 31% 27% 69% 57% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 42% 37% 53% 44% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 37% 30% 43% 35% Cohort ► See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done. MENA startups sample size N=3663; conversions to seed o=1080 SEED BENCHMARKS Pre-Seed Failure Rateis Coming Down Historical change reflects demand for seed deals across MENA; a sharp rise in the blue area shows peak investor interest Failure Rate = Success Rate = 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate 27% 57% 37% 44% 30% 35%  Highest  Highest U A E S A U D I E G Y P T NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 16. 16 Comparison: Years From Foundation Until First Seed Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS 0 1 2 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  1.9  1.7  2  2.1 years 6. How old are the startups who get seeded in MENA? 1.7 Years in UAE, 2 Years Everywhere Else—In Line with Non-MENA The normal range in MENA is converging and increasing since 2018, now it is between 1 and 3 years  3  1.1 Age At First Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 UAE 1.6 1.7 Overall MENA 1.9 1.9 Non-MENA 1.9 2.0 Saudi 2.0 2.0 Egypt 2.0 2.1 75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.1 75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 3 PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA seed N=899, o=487; median absolute deviation 0.920, ො 𝜎 = 0.620 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 17. 17 SEED BENCHMARKS 13. How many investors participate in the seed round in MENA? One, and Rarely Above Three More Co-Invest: An uptrend led by Egypt startups is emerging, making having 2-3 investors split the round not uncommon L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed seed rounds N=863, o=534; Egypt o=113 Investor Count At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 5 6 Egypt 1 2 Saudi 1 1 UAE 1 1 Overall MENA 1 1 75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1 75% of all MENA ≤ 2 ≤ 3 Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Seed Raise (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 18. $0M $5M $10M $15M $20M $25M $30M $35M $40M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 18 SEED BENCHMARKS UAE Highest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=133; o=92, median absolute deviation 2.50M, ො 𝜎 = 1.686 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 7. What is the premoney valuation when raising seed in MENA? $3M The Normal Range in MENA is $1M to $9M UAE Leading: with a median of $5M and larger spread, UAE is well above MENA in seed valuations The Elite: 15% of seeded companies in MENA are spred across a wide span between $9M and $22M Companies above the $22M mark are outliers
  • 19. 19 Historical Profile: Premoney Valuation At Seed Round 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  $3.4M  $8.4M  $2M Premoney Valuation At Seed Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $10M $9.5M UAE $6M $8.4M Overall MENA $3M $3.4M Saudi $2M $2M Egypt $1.4M $1.4M 75% of all MENA ≥ $9M ≥ $10M 75% of all MENA ≤ $1M ≤ $1.4M 8. Trends in MENA seed round premoney valuation for 2023 UAE valuations are increasing faster than elsewhere in MENA UAE prices are diverging, resulting in a very wide span between the median and the top 25% in MENA  $10M   $1.4M $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  $9.5M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=133, o=92; median absolute deviation 2.50M, ො 𝜎 = 1.686 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 20. $0M $1M $2M $3M $4M $5M $6M $7M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 20 SEED BENCHMARKS $870k The Normal Range in MENA is $250k to $2.2M Cheap Seeding in Egypt: At $500k, seed rounds in Egypt are the smallest, but with a huge spread The Elite: 15% of seeded companies are spred across a very wide span between $2.2M and $5M Companies who raise >$5.1M in seed are outliers Egypt Lowest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k 9. What is the funding size when raising seed in MENA?
  • 21. 21 Historical Profile: Round Size At Seed Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  $1M  $1.4M  $1.3M Round Size At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $1.9M $2M UAE $1.1M $1.4M Saudi $1.1M $1.3M Overall MENA $870k $1M Egypt $500k $625k 75% of all MENA ≥ $250k ≥ $400k 75% of all MENA ≤ $2.2M ≤ $2.5M 10. Trends in MENA seed round size for 2023 Money Raised at Seed Stage is Going Higher, Most Significantly in Saudi The wide span between the average and the top 25% gives lots of room for elite startups to raise more  $2.5M  $400k  $2M $0M $1M $2M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  $625k PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k
  • 22. 22 SEED BENCHMARKS 12.3% The normal dilution range in MENA is 5.4% to 21% Buyer Power in Saudi: With a median of 16%, dilution in Saudi is significantly higher than MENA Seller Power: 15% of seeded companies raise at exceptionally low dilution between 2.6% and 5.4% Above 21% is rare, while >43.5% is outlier territory L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=116, o=78; median absolute deviation 7.62%, ො 𝜎 = 5.14 % ; Saudi o=9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Saudi Highest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 11. What is the expected dilution when raising seed in MENA?
  • 23. 23 Historical Profile: Dilution At Seed Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  11.3%  11%  16% Dilution At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Saudi 16% 16% Overall MENA 12.3% 12.3% Egypt 9% 12% Non-MENA 10.6% 11.3% UAE 11.7% 11% 75% of all MENA ≥ 5.4% ≥ 5.7% 75% of all MENA ≤ 21% ≤ 22% 12. Trends in MENA seed round dilution for 2023 11-12% dilution across MENA is similar to abroad, with one exception: Saudi Despite the massive demand shock from PIF, Saudi startups don’t get the best terms on seed dilution; Egypt shows significant rise nudging closer to Saudi, while UAE posts the lowest seed dilution in MENA  22%  5.7%  12.3% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=116, o=78; median absolute deviation 7.62%, ො 𝜎 = 5.14 % ; Saudi o=9  12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PROJECTION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 24. $0.0M $0.5M $1.0M $1.5M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 24 SEED BENCHMARKS $500k The Normal Seed Ticket Range in MENA is $190k to $1.1M UAE Big Spread: 40% of seeded UAE companies are spred across a massive span between $630k and $3.5M, setting UAE’s outlier threshold to above $3.5M Seed rounds with >$2.5M tickets in MENA are outliers Egypt Lowest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k 14. What is the ticket size when doing a seed round in MENA? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 25. $0.00M $0.25M $0.50M $0.75M $1.00M $1.25M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Seed Raise (Uniform Split Among Participants) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  $525k  $670k  $800k Ticket Size At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Saudi $560k $800k UAE $625k $670k Overall MENA $500k $525k Non-MENA $310k $320k Egypt $250k $330k 75% of all MENA ≥ $190k ≥ $250k 75% of all MENA ≤ $1.1M ≤ $1.3M 15. Trends in MENA seed round tickets size for 2023 Up and Up: Seed Tickets in Saudi are Getting Expensive, Leapfrogging UAE This further highlights the high demand and entry requirements for Saudi seed stage investing Note how seed tickets in MENA are more expensive than Non-MENA since 2020  $1.3M  $250k  $330k PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 26.
  • 27. 27 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 THE ROAD TO SERIES A
  • 28. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success 14% 14% 65% 52% 28 SEED/A BENCHMARKS MovingFromSeedtoSeriesA Success 14% Failure 52% Danger Zone: In 2024, 151 more seed startups will confirm failure – that’s 27% of the pipeline available today effectively getting written off ※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts seed ventures who shutdown or are too old to raise series A (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023 MENA seed-funded sample size N=1080; conversions seed to A o=130 16. Matriculation: How many move from seed to series A, and how many never do? ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate Cohort ► NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 29. 29 Cohort ► See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done. MENA seed-funded sample size N=1080; conversions seed to A o=130 SEED/A BENCHMARKS At70% FailureRate, EgyptSeed Ventures NeedMore Attention Seed-to-A success rate is highest in countries who actively work on developing their post-seed environment Failure Rate = Success Rate = 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate 18% 53% 16% 45% 8% 79%  Highest  Highest 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 15% 18% 55% 53% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 35% 16% 70% 45% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9% 8% 76% 79% U A E S A U D I E G Y P T NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 30. 0 1 2 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30 Comparison: Years From First Seed Raise Until First Series A Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED/A BENCHMARKS  2.2  2.5 years   2.1 17. How long does it take to move from seed stage to series A in MENA? Seed Holding Period: 2.5 Years in Saudi, 2 Years Everywhere Else The normal range in MENA is stable since 2020, roughly between 1 and 3 years  3.2  1.3  1.4 Seed Holding Period To Series A (Years) 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 1.6 1.4 UAE 1.9 2.1 Egypt 1.9 2.1 Overall MENA 2.0 2.2 Saudi 2.0 2.5 75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.3 75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 3.2 L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA converted seed to series A N=130; o=101, median absolute deviation 0.843, ො 𝜎 = 0.569 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 31. 31 SERIES A BENCHMARKS 20. How many investors participate in the series A round in MENA? Three, and Rarely Above Five—Except In Egypt The normal range in MENA has converged between 1 and 5 co-investors per series A round Egypt companies are seeing more co-investing at series A, making up to 8 co-investors not as rare L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed series A rounds N=392, o=134; Egypt o=31 Investor Count At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 6 6 Egypt 3 4 Overall MENA 3 3 UAE 2 2 Saudi 2 2 75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1 75% of all MENA ≤ 5 ≤ 5 Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Series A Round (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* 0 5 10 15 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 32. 32 SERIES A BENCHMARKS $6.7M The normal range in MENA is $2.4M to $15M More Funding in UAE …and Egypt: Through only 8% seeded companies make it to series A in Egypt, their funding spread is similar to that in UAE The Elite: 15% of series A companies are spred across a wide span between $15M and $27M Companies who raise >$34M at series A are outliers L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 4.681M, ො 𝜎 = 3.157 M $0M $5M $10M $15M $20M $25M $30M $35M $40M $45M $50M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% UAE Highest in MENA 18. What is the funding size when raising series A in MENA?
  • 33. 33 Historical Profile: Round Size At Series A Round 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  $7M  $10M  $7.2M Round Size At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $10M $10M UAE $10M $10M Egypt $7M $9M Saudi $7.2M $7.2M Overall MENA $6.7M $7M 75% of all MENA ≥ $2.4M ≥ $3M 75% of all MENA ≤ $15M ≤ $16M 19. Trends in MENA series A round size for 2023 Money Raised at Series A Has Rallied Since 2020, Most Significantly in Egypt Series A rounds in UAE are similar in size to non-MENA series A where the same investors deploy  $16M  $3M  $9M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 4.681M, ො 𝜎 = 3.157 M $0M $5M $10M $15M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
  • 34. $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M $12M $14M $16M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 34 SERIES A BENCHMARKS $2.2M The normal range in MENA is $1.2M to $5M Volatility on the Way Up: Series A ticket sizes are witnessing significant volatility with an increasing number of above average tickets Tickets above $10M at series A are outliers, though are becoming less unlikely L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 1.236M, ො 𝜎 = 0.833 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% UAE Highest in MENA 21. What is the ticket size when doing a series A round in MENA? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 35. $0M $1M $2M $3M $4M $5M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Series A Round (Uniform Split Among Participants) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  $2.5M  $3M  $2.7M Ticket Size At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 UAE $3.0M $3.0M Saudi $2.3M $2.7M Overall MENA $2.2M $2.5M Egypt $2.2M $2.3M Non-MENA $1.7M $1.7M 75% of all MENA ≥ $1.1M ≥ $1.4M 75% of all MENA ≤ $4.8M ≤ $5.0M 22. Trends in MENA series A ticket size for 2023 Series A Tickets 2019 Rally Continues in MENA As of 2021, series A tickets in MENA are pricier than non-MENA where the same investors deploy  $5M  $1.4M  $2.3M PROJECTION  $1.7M L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 1.236M, ො 𝜎 = 0.833 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 36.
  • 37. 37 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 CROSSING TO GROWTH STAGE
  • 38. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success 38% 27% 34% 33% 38 SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS AdvancingFromSeriesA Success 27% Failure 33% Danger Zone: By 2024, 26 more series A ventures will confirm failure – that’s 28% of the viable pipeline available today ※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts series A ventures who shutdown or are too old to raise B or above (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023 MENA series A-funded sample size N=236; conversions to next stage o=69 23. Matriculation: How many move from series A to B, and how many never do? ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate Cohort ► COUNT < 5 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 39. 39 Cohort ► U A E See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done. MENA series A-funded sample size N=236; conversions to next stage o=69 SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS Advancing ToGrowth StageStill Hasthe Fewest Crowd 46% of MENA exits after series A are series A ventures who don’t make it to series B Failure Rate = Success Rate = 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate 32% 28% 21% 20% 26% 20%  Highest  Highest 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 41% 32% 37% 28% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 41% 21% 50% 20% COUNT < 5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 40% 26% 31% 20% COUNT < 5 COUNT < 5 S A U D I E G Y P T NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 40. 0 1 2 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 40 Comparison: Years From First Series A Raise Until the Next Stage Raise (Most Commonly Series B) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS   1.6  2.1 years  1.7 24. How long does it take to move from series A to the next stage in MENA? Series A Holding Period: 2 Years in Saudi, Less Than 2 Years Everywhere Else Median outside Saudi is converging rapidly; the entire MENA range is roughly between 1 and 2.5 years  2.6  1.2  1.4 Series A Holding Period To Next (Years) 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 1.4 1.4 UAE 1.6 1.6 Overall MENA 1.9 1.6 Egypt 2.0 1.7 Saudi 2.3 2.1 75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.2 75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 2.6 L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA converted series A to next stage N=69, o=60; median absolute deviation 0.778, ො 𝜎 = 0.524 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 41. 41 SERIES B BENCHMARKS 27. How many investors participate in the series B round in MENA? Four, and Rarely Above Six The normal range in MENA has converged between 2 and 6 co-investors per series B round Saudi series B rounds are seeing significant increase in co-investors L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed series B rounds N=78, o=59; Saudi o=11 Investor Count At Series B Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 6 6 Saudi 5 5 UAE 4 5 Overall MENA 4 4 Egypt 4 4 75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1 75% of all MENA ≤ 6 ≤ 6 Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Series B Round (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 42. 42 SERIES B BENCHMARKS $15M The normal range in MENA is $6M to $30M Similar Spreads: All MENA ranges are similar, with notable concentration towards the lower end in Egypt The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across a moderate span between $30M and $50M Companies who raise >$66M at series B are outliers L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 10.500M, ො 𝜎 = 7.082 M $0M $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M $70M $80M $90M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Egypt Concentration in the lower quartile 25. What is the funding size when raising series B in MENA?
  • 43. 43 Historical Profile: Round Size At Series B Round 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES B BENCHMARKS  $17M  $21.6M  $19.5M Round Size At Series B Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $23M $22M UAE $20M $21.6M Saudi $19M $19.5M Overall MENA $15M $17M Egypt $8M $10M 75% of all MENA ≥ $6M ≥ $7M 75% of all MENA ≤ $30M ≤ $31M 26. Trends in MENA series B round size for 2023 Money raised at series B in an uptrend since 2020, similar to the series A trend Series B rounds in UAE are similar in size to non-MENA series B where the same investors deploy  $31M  $7M  $10M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 10.500M, ො 𝜎 = 7.082 M $0M $10M $20M $30M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  $22M
  • 44. $0M $5M $10M $15M $20M $25M $30M $35M $40M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 44 SERIES B BENCHMARKS $4M The normal range in MENA is $2M to $11M Volatility in UAE: Compared to tight markets elsewhere in MENA, series B tickes in UAE are spred very widely, thanks to MENA fintechs choosing to be domiciled in UAE before series B Tickets above $24M at series B are outliers in MENA L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 2.666M, ො 𝜎 = 1.798 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% UAE Highest in MENA 28. What is the ticket size when doing a series B round in MENA? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 45. $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M $12M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 45 Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Series B Round (Uniform Split Among Participants) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES B BENCHMARKS  $5M  $4M Ticket Size At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 UAE $5.8M $5.1M Non-MENA $4.4M $4.8M Saudi $4.4M $4.1M Overall MENA $4.2M $4.2M Egypt $2.3M $3.4M 75% of all MENA ≥ $2.0M ≥ $1.9M 75% of all MENA ≤ $10.9M ≤ $10.4M 29. Trends in MENA series B ticket size for 2023 Wide Range, But Strong Convergence at $4M Matching Non-MENA Tickets Taking medians, series B tickets in MENA are pretty much standard, especially with Egypt catching up  $10M  $1.9M  $3.4M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 2.666M, ො 𝜎 = 1.798 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  • 46.
  • 47. 47 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL USE ONLY FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION
  • 48. $0M $25M $50M $75M $100M $125M $150M $175M $200M $225M $250M $275M $300M $325M MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 48 SERIES A BENCHMARKS $11M The normal range in MENA is $6M to $24M The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across a very wide span between $24M and $154M Companies above the $52M mark are outliers ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable to use for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=19, o=14; median absolute deviation 9.750M, ො 𝜎 = 6.576 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 30. What is the premoney valuation when raising series A in MENA? HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  • 49. 49 Historical Profile: Premoney Valuation At Series A Round 5-yr Moving Median MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  $9.2M  $4.3M 31. Trends in MENA series A round premoney valuation for 2023 Series A Premoney Valuations Might Be Coming Down The premoney range is shrinking, reflecting a monetary-tightening, risk-averse sentiment  $19.5M  $73M PROJECTION ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable to use for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=19, o=14; median absolute deviation 9.750M, ො 𝜎 = 6.576 M $0M $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M $70M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Premoney Valuation At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $73M $73M Overall MENA $11M $9.2M 75% of all MENA ≥ $6M ≥ $4.3M 75% of all MENA ≤ $24.5M ≤ $19.5M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  • 50. 50 SERIES A BENCHMARKS ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=17, o=12; median absolute deviation 7.95%, ො 𝜎 = 5.36 % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 32. What is the expected dilution when raising series A in MENA? 18.2% Series A normal dilution range in MENA is 8.9% to 22.8% Seller Power: 15% of companies raise at exceptionally low dilution between 7.4% and 8.9% Above 23% is rare, while >28% is outlier territory HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  • 51. 51 Historical Profile: Dilution At Series A Raise 5-yr Moving Median MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  14% Dilution At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Overall MENA 18% 19% Non-MENA 14% 14% 75% of all MENA ≥ 5.4% ≥ 25% 75% of all MENA ≤ 21% ≤ 22% 33. Trends in MENA series A round dilution for 2023 19% Dilution Across MENA is Higher Than Series A Abroad Dilution is stable since 2018, while a contracting range indicates more standardization of deal terms  25%  11%  19% ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=17, o=12; median absolute deviation 7.95%, ො 𝜎 = 5.36 % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  • 52. $0M $100M $200M $300M $400M $500M $600M $700M $800M $900M $1,000M $1,100M $1,200M $1,300M $1,400M $1,500M $1,600M $1,700M $1,800M MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 52 SERIES B BENCHMARKS ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; data can be used to guide further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt; non-MENA data is reliable L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=9, o=7; median absolute deviation 69.9M, ො 𝜎 = 47.1 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL 34. What is the premoney valuation when raising series B in MENA? $70M The normal range in MENA is $39M to $315M The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across a narrow span between $315M and $384M Companies above the $730M mark are outliers
  • 53. 53 SERIES B BENCHMARKS ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; data can be used to guide further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt; non-MENA data is reliable L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=9, o=7; median absolute deviation 7.33%, ො 𝜎 = 4.95 % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% 35. What is the expected dilution when raising series B in MENA? 19-24% The biggest chunk of companies in MENA raise series B at 19.3% to 24% dilution Series B normal dilution range is 19.3% to 46%, 24% being the midpoint Above 47% is rare, and below 15.5% is very rare NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  • 54.
  • 55. 55 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 ENDING NOTES
  • 56. 10,276 Companies Self-identifying as ‘startup’, founded in MENA since 1/1/2008 3,663 are startups 6,613 are not, but are used in hypothesis testing 1,140 Non-MENA Non-MENA startups whose cap table includes investors from MENA or investors active in MENA Used for comparisons, benchmarks and hypothesis testing 1,345 Investors From MENA or active in MENA after 1/1/2010 344 MENA-based firms 1,001 Non-MENA firms 5,157 Funding Rounds Announced after 1/1/2010 2,930 seed to post-B 1,642 with MENA ventures 1,288 Non-MENA ventures T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 THE DATASETS ※ The Clearworld Model is a data enrichment model built on top of publicly-accessible data from Crunchbase Pro. The Model with its 160 enrichment features is a proprietary model of Clearworld developed since 2019 to enable scientifically and statistically-sound research into venture industries that suffer from limited data not assuming normalcy. It is a generalized model with MENA being a special case. Clearworld do not sell, re-sell or share access to the raw dataset, which can be accessed through the Crunchbase platform independently. 56
  • 57. To contact the editor: Eden Rabbie eden.rabbie@clear.world +971501385522 linkedin.com/in/edenrabbie 57 Clearworld is a firm created purposefully to handle uncertainty. We use scientific and statistical models to create quantifiable clarity, then feed it into real-world execution models. We specialize in orphaned strategy situations: when a goal, aspiration, or strategic statement exists, but no clarity on execution and close to zero meaningful action, data and insights. A. Brick up the gaps between strategy and action B. Shorten the lead time to execution C. Minimize execution uncertainties in real time D. Convert the outcome into rational entities with measurable performance and answers to the variables needed for proper project management Startup Report MENA (startupreport.me) is a platform developed using the Clearworld Model. It is a public service managed by Clearworld aimed to catalyze the innovation and venture capital industry in MENA. The intention is to keep it free of charge. Clearworld is a Dubai-based management consultancy, DET license 946385.
  • 58. Selling data now is a mistake. In a nascent industry like MENA ventures, it is a mistake. 1. Dearth of data is a big barrier to entry in this industry. It is common to see a fund manager who wants to dabble in early stage, and as he designs a portfolio he realizes that even the most basic building blocks such as expected returns or holding period averages is just not there. How bad is the discussion with your LP prospect when you promise an expected return based on assumptions, or an allocation strategy based on famous outlier exits or, worse, US rules of thumb. You don't have to imagine because It’s. Our. Reality. 2. New VCs in MENA don’t bring in new liquidity. Our new VCs are almost always established by ex-employees of another local VC and rarely by new entrants. Those ex-employees carry over the same LP network, barely adding any new liquidity to the system. We need new liquidity to advance MENA ventures. Not more SWFs, but new market forces with industry rationality mandates to allow for the evolutionary process in the industry to kick in. For that to happen, we must remove all barriers to entry: good regulation, public-private partnerships, AND complete information on what to expect when you enter. Under these conditions, every act that may hinder access to information is a shot in the foot. Our initiative here is to make benchmarks and insights available for all—incumbents and new entrants. We urge everyone to help advance our tech innovation industry with a simple first step: Embrace open data to unlock new liquidity. Eden Rabbie Partner - Director of Data Science and Business Insight at Clearworld March 2023 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E D A T A H A N D B O O K 2023