The European Union – Development and Situation before the ‘Brexit’

2. The ‘Brexit’
Reasons, Consequences and its Impact
Organiser
Technical Development
July 02, 2016
♣
presented by
Philipp Robert Gehrmann – Trainee

3. Presentation Outline
The European Union – Development and
Situation before the ‘Brexit’
 Historic Development
 Key Facts
 Why join the EU?
 ‘Satisfaction Barometer’
Leave or Remain? – Goals, Promises and Key
Players of the Campaigns
 The Leave Campaign
 Britain Stronger In Europe

4. Presentation Outline
The Poll and its Results – the Occurrences on
June 23
 Course of Events
 Final Results
 Analysis of the Results
The Aftermath –Consequences and possible
Scenarios after Britain’s Leave
 Reactions & Consequences
 The UK under Pressure?
 Anger of Voters
 Possible Scenarios

5. The European Union
Development and Situation before the
‘Brexit’

6. HISTORIC DEVELOPMENT
EU member
states
Potential
member states
Non-members

7. 508.2 million
people lived within
the European
Union in 2015
Capital:
Brussels
28 member
states
Purpose: common
economic, social
and security
policies
objectives:
freedom, justice,
security, economic
and social progress
Requirements:
democracy, human
rights record, sound
economic policies
KEY FACTS

8. WHY JOIN THE EU?
 Legal and human
rights
 European Arrest
Warrant scheme
 European harmony
 EU funds
 Modernization of
prospective members
 Tackling
environmental issues
 Consumer benefits
 Free movement of
labour & capital
 Work and settle in
every EU state
 Free trade and removal
of non-tariff barriers
 strong economic area
and large market
 Attraction of inward
investments
 More power in global
politics and trade

9. SATISFACTION BAROMETER
People in member
states tend to
become more
pessimistic
Euro crisis: failure
to prevent and
fight against
financial downfall
Immigration
‘crisis’
Slow, inefficient
and intransparent
bureaucratic
processes

10. THE FUTURE OF THE EU

11. Leave or Remain?
Goals, Promises and Key Players of the
Campaigns

12.  BeLeave
 Out & Proud
 Liberal Leave
 Women…
 Muslims…
 Aussies…
 Kiwis…
 Vapers…
 Bangladesh…
 Poles…
 Christians…
 Conservatives…
 Students…
 Business…
 Economists…
 Historians…
 Lawyers…
 Farmers…
 Veterans…
…for Britain
THE LEAVE CAMPAIGN

13. GOALS AND PROMISES
 Save money
 Close borders
 Control
immigration
 Make ‘own’ laws
 Avoidance of EU
laws and
regulations
 Be free to trade
with the whole
world
 Spend money saved
from EU contribution on
NHS, schools and
housing
 Welcome people based
on skills not passport
 New & more jobs for
‘British’ population
 No economic
drawbacks, but rather
growth
 Better relations with
Europe and the world

14. WHEN WE STAY IN THE EU…
Why vote ‘Leave’?
The Leave Campaigns Forecast for a ‘European’ UK
 The European Union expands and mostly ‘poorer’
countries are about to join in the future; their
people will ‘flood’ Britain
 Immigration will get ‘out of control’
 Contribution charges to be paid to the EU continue
 Britain and its Pound have to pay for the Euro’s
‘failure’
 European Court continues to ‘overrule’ Britain

15. BRITAIN STRONGER IN EUROPE

16. THE RISKS OF LEAVING
Why vote ‘Remain’?
 Period of instability during the 2-10 years of
negotiations
 Devaluation in the pound, leading to fall in the value
of home and pension
 Higher prices on everything
 Negotiation of new trade relationships with the EU
and many other countries worldwide necessary
 Loss of access to all arrangements with the EU,
including trade deals, EU funding and rights to free
travel

17. The Poll and its Results –
The Occurrences on June 23

18. COURSE OF EVENTS
June 16:
assassination of
Labour MP Jo Cox
Betting offices are
favouring Remain
to win the poll
Poll turns into head-
to-head race, Leave
gains the lead a few
hours before the end
Final Result: Leave
wins, the UK will
opt out of the EU
Financial analysts
are confident that
the UK stays in
Results of surveys
are mixed, but
indicate a narrow
win for Remain

19. FINAL RESULTS

20. ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS

21. The Aftermath
Consequences and Possible Scenarios
after Britain’s Leave

22. REACTIONS & CONSEQUENCES
Financial markets
erupt
Politicians &
economists
showing their
concerns
David Cameron
resigns as PM of
the UK
European parliament
and top politicians
urge Britain to start
negotiations
Rating agency S&P
devaluates the
creditworthiness of
the EU
IMF, central banks
and financial
analysts predict a
loss in economic
growths
Leaders of European
right wing and
nationalist parties
call for more polls
The UK loses its
position as the 5th
largest economy to
France

23. THE UK UNDER PRESSURE
‘Londependence’? Scottish
Independence?
Irish Unification? 2nd referendum?

24. THE ANGER OF THE VOTERS
‘The idea of staying within a
common market (…), I think that
is feasible’
…
‘It means free movement of
labour’
‘No I can’t [guarantee it], and I
would never have made that
claim. That was one of the
mistakes that I think the Leave
campaign made’
‘Having
consulted
colleagues and
in view of the
circumstances
in parliament, I
have concluded
that person
cannot be me’

25. THE ANGER OF THE VOTERS
 On Thursday, they won by promising cuts
in immigration. On Friday, Johnson and the
Eurosceptic ideologue Dan Hannan said that
in all probability the number of foreigners
coming here won’t fall.
 On Thursday, they promised the economy
would boom. By Friday, the pound was at a
30-year low.
 On Thursday, they promised £350m extra a
week for the NHS. On Friday, it turns out
there are “no guarantees”

26. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
‘United’ Kingdom? Integration, penalization or isolation?

27. THE NEXT STEPS
How is Great Britain going to exit the EU?
 Repeal of the European Communities Act 1972
 Renegotiation of the United Kingdom’s relationship
with the EU
 Invoke of Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union
and begin of a(tleast) two-year withdrawal process
+
 Broader constitutional ramifications

28. Thank You