1. Indus Water Treaty:
A Strategic Perspective
By
Maj Gen AK Chaturvedi, AVSM, VSM
At
Institution of Engineers Roorkee
22 Oct 2016

2. Introduction
 Integrity of Geography of the Indian Sub –
continent
 Criticality ofWater in Indo Pak Context
 Relevance ofTibet forWater Availability to
countries in the Indian Sub- continent
 Rights of Riparian States
 Indus River Basin

3. INDUS RIVER BASININDUS RIVER BASIN

4. MOUNTMOUNT
KAILASHKAILASH
• WESTERN RIVERS – INDUS , CHENAB & JHELUM.
• EASTERN RIVERS – RAVI , BEAS & SUTLEJ
• INDUS & SUTLEJ ORIGINATE IN TIBET AS SUCH INDIA
IS MIDDLE RIPARIAN
• ORIGIN FOR OTHER THREE IN INDIA AS SUCH INDIA IS
UPPER RIPARIAN
INDUS
INDUS
INDUS
SUTLEJ
RAVI
CHENABJHELUM
INDUS RIVERINDUS RIVER
SYSTEMSYSTEM
KABUL
BEAS
MARALA H/W
MANGLA
TRIMMU BARRAGE
RASUL H/W
PANJAD H/W
KALABAGH H/W
MADHOPUR H/W
CHASMA BARRAGE
TAUNSA BARRAGE

5. INDUS RIVER BASIN
• Single River System Central To
Pak, Covers an Area Of 4,50,000 Sq
Miles.
• Source of Water (>40%) - Tibetan
Glaciers – Affected by Global
Warming.
• Second Largest Sediment Body on
Earth - Regulating Structures Require
Heavy Maintenance- Tarbela, Mangla
And Chasma- Up to 25% Loss Of
Storage Space.
• 46% Of Water Volume Originates
From Indus & Balance From
Tributaries Including those From West.
• Most Important Source Of Water To
Punjab & Sind.
• Backbone Of Agriculture, Food
Production and power generation In
Pak.
• Reduced Current Of Flow In Lower
Reaches Resulting Into Increase In
Salinity Of Indus Delta.
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL- 20000MW
INDICATED POTENTIAL- 16480 MW
RETREAT OF GLACIER- 50YR-
INCREASE IN FLOW- FLOODS
NEXT 50 YR- DECREASE IN THE
FLOW BY 30-40%
AFTER 3 DECADES INDUS IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A
SEASONAL RIVER

6. HISTORICAL BACKGROUNDHISTORICAL BACKGROUND

7. • 1859-1915- British Built
Canals For Flood Control
& Irrigation
• 1947 – Partition-
– Key Head Works In
India.
– Bulk Of Canals &
Farmland In Pak
• 1948-
• No Political
Agreement Over
Water Sharing
• Standstill Agreement
Between India – Pak
Expired On 01 Apr 48
• India Cuts Flow, Pak
Crops Fail, Pakistanis
Call For War
• Inter Dominion Treaty
Signed (Delhi Accord)
• 1952-60. World Bank
Mediates - Results In
HistoryHistory
Jhelum
Sutlej
Ravi
CHENAB
INDUS
MARALA HW
SULEMANKI HW
MANGLA DAM
CHENAB
CHASMA HW
FIROZPUR HW
MADHOPUR HW

8. ““ No armies with bombs andNo armies with bombs and
shellfire could devastate a land soshellfire could devastate a land so
thoroughly, as Pakistan could bethoroughly, as Pakistan could be
devastated, by simple expedient ofdevastated, by simple expedient of
India’s permanently shutting off theIndia’s permanently shutting off the
source of water that keeps the fieldssource of water that keeps the fields
and people of Pakistan green.”and people of Pakistan green.”
-- David LilienthalDavid Lilienthal
(chief interlocutor and(chief interlocutor and

9. “One aspect of Mr David Lilienthal’s
proposal appealed to me from the first was
his insistence that the Indus problem is an
engineering problem and should be dealt by
Engineers.”
Eugene R Black
President of the World Bank
Finally Indus Water Treaty was signed By
Prime Minister Nehru of India and President
Ayub Khan of Pakistan at Karachi on 19 Sep
1960

10.  Division of River Waters.
 Assigned Ravi, Beas And Sutlej to India for
Exclusive Use- Pakistan could use the waters of
these rivers for a period of 10 years and in the
interim they were required to make regulating
structures on Western rivers for which India was
to Pay a One Time Compensation of £ 62 Million to
Pakistan
 Waters Of Indus, Jhelum & Chenab (Western
Rivers) To Pak, However India was Permitted Non
Consumptive Use, right of use for irrigation,
certain min water storage capacity and
permission to make some run of the river power
projects on These Rivers
 Tech Approval By Pak On Projects with respect
to Western Rivers
 Dispute Resolution Through Arbitration, Neutral
Expert and monitoring through a permanent
Elements of Indus Water
Treaty
 Distinct Tilt in Favour of
Pakistan!
 No Provision for The State
of J&K!!

11. “Every factor was against us. The
only sensible thing to do was to try and
get a settlement , even though it might
be second best, because if we did not, we
stood to loose every thing . The very fact
that Pak had to be content with waters of
three Western Rivers underlined the
importance of having physical control over
the higher reaches for max utilization of
the growing needs of West Pakistan. In
my mind, therefore, the only solution of
the Kashmir issue acquired a sense of
urgency on the conclusion of the treaty.”
Field Marshal Mohammad Ayub
Khan

12. Present Usage/ Status
 Total Mean Flow From Eastern Rivers - 33
MAF
 India Entitled 33 MAF Of Eastern Rivers
 Using Only 30 MAF- balance utilized as also
from nullahs down stream of Madhopur HW
 Total Mean Flow From Western Rivers –
136 MAF
 India Using For Irrigation - 0.792 MAF
(Against 1.34 MAF Permitted)
 Storage/ Pondage- 0.026 MAF at
Baglihar (Against Total Entitlement Of
3.6 MAF on Western Rivers)
 Even If India Uses Full Entitlement It
Will Amount To 3 % Of Mean Flow
Pak Still Alleges Mis–appropriation By
India!!

13.  Treaty not Keeping Pace with Times -
 Increased Urbanization - Increased Demands &
Changed Water Needs
 Impact Of Global Warming - Water Resources Under
Stress
 Allocation Of Water Interpreted Differently – Both
Countries regard it as Unfair
 Too Many Engineering Provisions – Make The Treaty
Complex.
 Drafted Stringently For India - Does not meet India’s
Needs (Specially J&K Including PoK)
 No Provisions For Periodic Review.
Problem with the Treaty

14. Pak Problems
 Pak receives 180 BCM of water, 75% of it diverted into canal but only 30%
reaches to crop due to seepage and evaporation
 Demand-sup gap- (-)102 BCM likely to become 31 MAF in 2025
 12 dams on Kabul River will further reduce the availability of water in
Indus and if the entire amount as stipulated by the IndusWaterTreaty is
taken out availability for Pak will further go down
 The current water availability below ‘water scarce‘ level ?
 Storage capacity- 30 days
 Ground water-51.3 BCM- depletion 10 ft per year
 Loss due to Salination of ground water -25% destroyed
 Pollution-
 Northern part-64% microbiological contamination
 Central- chemical& microbiological poisoning
 Central and southern- arsenic poisoning
 Population : 234 million by 2030 (growth of 35%) from 33.7 million in 1951

15. PAK INTERNAL DYNAMICS &PAK INTERNAL DYNAMICS &
CONCERNSCONCERNS

16. Pak Internal Dynamics
 River System Accounts for
65% Of Water Flow in Pak.
 Serious Differences Among
PoK, Punjab & Sind on Water
Sharing – Kalabagh Dam,
Bhasa Daimar and Mangla
Controversy.
 Widespread Protest Against
Proposed Dams at Mianwali,
Chilas, Gilgit & Raising
Height of Mangla Dam.
 Status of Bhasa Daimar
Project
 Failure of Institutions Like
Water & Power Development
Authority (WAPDA) & Indus
River Sys Auth (IRSA)
GILGIT
KALABAGH DAM
MIANWALI
CHILAS
MANGLA DAM
MARALA H/W
RAVI
SUTLEJ
JHELUM
CHENAB
INDUS
INDUS
INDUS
BASHA DAIMAR DAM SITE

17.  Likelihood of India Using Water as a Weapon as
Treaty Allows Tapping of Western Rivers by Her
for Hydropower and Other Non Consumptive
Use
 No of Hydropower Projects Planned by India -
Cumulative Effect of Dams to Influence Timing
of Flow
 Indian Usage May Affect The Quantity of
Water Flowing into Pak- Mangla May Not Get
Filled and In Sind 87 Km Sea Ingress- Issue Of
Food Security
Height of Dams Dictates India's Capability to
Accelerate, Decelerate or Block Flow of Water –
Bearing on Mil Operations
Pak's Concerns
CONTD/…

18. Reality…
 Dams on Eastern rivers - an inherent advantage
to India to control the flow – though never
exercised
 Western rivers -
 entitlement of waters for irrigation and
pondage (0.792 MAF/1.34 MAF and 0.026 MAF/3.6
MAF) - not fully utilised by India : Baghlihar
controversy
 Diversion of water from these rivers - no
canals constructed by India
 65% of catchment area of these rivers lies in
Pak/ territory controlled by Pak- storage
capacity still only for 30 days
 Pak’s interest in Kashmir - control of water of
western rivers ??
 Pak loosing 40% through seepage- not addressed
 Wastage of water in def canal
Treaty a Tool for Pak to Whip Up Anti India
Sentiments

19. View From Kashmir
Treaty Unfavorable,
Impediment to Economic
Development
State Deprived of
Hydroelectric Potential of
Rivers.
2002 Resolution in J&K
Assembly Demanding
Scrapping of The Treaty.
Growing Concern & Anger
Over Negative Consequences
of Treaty, Pleading For a
Review.
Initiatives on Projects will possibly draw Kashmir closer to
India !!

20. THE WAY AHEADTHE WAY AHEAD

21. What India Should
Attempt ?....
Counter Pak's Allegations by Raising the Issue of
Chinese Dam on Indus
Build Storage on The Western Rivers up to Permitted
3.6 MAF
Engineer Better Regulation of Flow of Eastern Rivers
Going Unutilized to Pakistan
Continue using Water as Political Leverage- recent
threat of review worked!
May keep the option to renegotiate Based on
‘Water Needs’ & Not on ‘Water Rights’
open.

22. ?

23. Thanks!
and
JaiHind!!
It was a Presentation
by
Maj Gen AK Chaturvedi
Mail : ajay_bengalspr@yahoo.co.in
dg@coer.ac.in
Mob: 897942891, 08419801100