Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentation
Team Ramen, Cornell'21, 1st Round
1. Totowaka Inc.:
Leveraging E-Commerce in Emerging Markets
Team Ramen
Institute of Business Administration, University of Dhaka
ABDULLAH
AZWAD RAFEED
SYED
SHADAB TAJWAR
AFNAN
FARUK
SADMAN
SAKIB
ARIJIT
SAHA
2. SITUATION OVERVIEW
19.8 years
Median age of African
population
2.2%
Growth rate of African
population, more than twice
that of Asia
$740 billion
Expenditure on food and
beverages by 2030
$2.1 trillion Consumer spending by 2025
56 million &
$680 billion
No. middle-class households &
disposable income in 5 largest
consumer markets by 2020
$292 billion
Income gains to be facilitated
by AfCFTA
94%
Of online business in Africa
coming from only 10 countries
2.2 billion
Number of e-commerce visits
in Africa in 2019
631
Number of online
marketplaces in Africa
AfCFTA
African Free Trade Agreement -
Facilitates cross
border trading
CONSUMER TRENDS IN AFRICA E-COMMERCE IN AFRICA
Totowaka Inc.:
• Operating in 10 countries across Africa - Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria,
Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire
• Operates smaller ecommerce platforms in Portugal, Germany, Spain and UAE
• 20 million monthly website visits in Africa, 1+ billion website views in 2021
• 30+ million products and 25+ million orders in 2020
• Average transaction of $30, $600 million GMV and $600 million cash-on-hand
with zero current debt
• 4% year-on-year growth in Gross profit, with 56% gross profit margin in
FY2020
• Leading markets - Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire
Barriers to E-Commerce in Africa:
• Underdeveloped logistical infrastructure in many regions' present
accessibility and availability challenges
• Marketplaces concentrated in larger and more developed urban areas and
economies
• Social instability in certain countries and regions present as barrier to entry
• Increasing competition from international companies and brands
• Lack of availability of credible market data, both in terms of market supply
and consumer demand.
However, Growing middle-class with increasing purchase power makes
Africa a lucrative market for retail ecommerce
25%
12%
21%
36%
5%
1%
Commissions Value Added
Services
Fulfllment First-Party
Revenue
Marketing &
Advertising
Non-Platform
Revenue
Totowaka Revenue by Segments
43%
36%
20%
1% 0.50%
West Africa North Africa East & South Africa Europe UAE
Totowaka Revenue by Location
3. DECISION POINT: EXPANSION INTO NEW MARKETS VS SOLELY FOCUS ON EXISTING MARKET
THE WAY FORWARD
EXPANSION INTO
NEW MARKETS
SOLELY FOCUS ON
EXISTING MARKET
Alternatives Pros Cons
Expansion
into New
Markets
1. Markets with potential exist with
zero to very low e-commerce
penetration
2. Easier to gain competitive edge
in an untapped market
1. Untapped markets present high
CapEx and high-risk factors
2. Regional diversity leaves room
for inconsistent buying patterns
Solely
Focusing on
Current
Markets
1. Opportunity to leverage existing
brand value and sustain market
share without substantially
increasing CapEx
2. Easy to predict consumer
behavior
1. Investing in current markets will
yield lower marginal utility
2. Probability to hit maturity
quicker in existing markets
3. Services concentrated in urban
areas since greater logistical issues
exist rural areas
4. Limits growth potential with the
possibility of competitors becoming
strong in new markets
WE WILL EXPAND INTO NEW MARKETS
Competition: Existing markets are becoming increasingly competitive with ecommerce
companies like Devilliers’ Delivers, Takealot.com and Bidorbuy with 17 million, 10.5 million
and 1.9 million monthly visits respectively in South Africa alone, while Konga has 2.3
million monthly visits in Nigeria. Totowaka Inc. currently has 20 million monthly visits in
their 10 markets in Africa. This means the competitors have the potential to dominate
specific markets like South Africa and Nigeria or gain greater market share in the entire
African continent if Totowaka doesn’t move towards expansion and increase their market
share.
Growth Potential: Totowaka has targeted their services in urban areas with greater
mobile internet penetration. Now, they can either target rural areas in current markets or
attempt to grow in urban markets. But World Bank findings show that the Middle East and
North Africa’s Rural Access Index is 39, while that of Sub-Saharan Africa is 29 in 2017. This
scenario won’t change substantially even with the African Free Trade Agreement unless
infrastructural development is done. So, targeting rural areas in existing markets isn’t
feasible for Totowaka Inc. Again, growing in existing urban markets limits their growth
potential with the possibility of the market hitting maturity too soon since at least 67.9% of
retail in the top three economies of Africa are driven by the informal sectors. This means
that in order to grow, Totowaka needs to find new markets.
First Party Market: Moreover, international competition is presenting a huge threat to
Totowaka’s first party sales. In 2020 and 2021, there were only 13 African brands among
the 100 most admired brands in Africa. And these 13 brands are based in just 4 countries -
Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia and Kenya. Totowaka cannot risk losing their first-party
market share to international companies since 36% of their revenue comes from first-
party sales.
4. DECISION POINT: EXPANSION INSIDE AFRICA VS EXPANSION OUTSIDE AFRICA
THE WAY FORWARD
EXPANSION INTO
NEW MARKETS
SOLELY FOCUS ON
EXISTING MARKET
EXPANSION OUTSIDE
AFRICA
EXPANSION INSIDE
AFRICA
Alternatives Pros Cons
Expansion
inside
Africa
1. Demographic similarities and
predictable consumer behavior
2. Scope to leverage existing
company resources
3. African free trade agreement
facilitates cross-border trade
4. Totowaka Inc’s. existing brand
value within Africa
1. Logistical & infrastructural
challenges persist throughout
Africa
2. Markets are largely untested
with no clear indication of market
readiness
Expansion
outside
Africa
1. Established infrastructure &
easier logistics
2. High e-commerce adoption and
high market readiness
1. Highly competitive & saturated
market
2. Diverse and uncertain
regulations
3. Inconsistent consumer behavior
and expectations
WE WILL EXPAND INSIDE AFRICA
Saturated Global Market: According to The World’s Top Online Marketplaces 2021 report,
North America, Europe, East Asia - primarily China and Japan, and Latin America are the
top four markets with each having billions of monthly visits. These markets are already
saturated with hundreds of thousands of major ecommerce players. Whereas, according to
the case, only 7 companies have more than a million monthly visits in Africa with Totowaka
being the leader in the continent and present in 10 African countries. Africa currently has
only 631 online marketplaces. Although the Middle East has a bigger user base compared
to Africa, only 0.5% of Totowaka’s revenue comes from UAE in the Middle East. This means
that Totowaka has not been able to capture a meaningful market.
Market accelerated by mobile internet: There is a lot going in favor of ecommerce
development within Africa.. The growth of mobile technologies has contributed $144
billion to Africa’s economy. By 2030, 3/4th of Africa is not only projected to become
internet users but also Africa’s 18 largest cities are projected to have a combined spending
power of $1.3 trillion. This means that as Africa’s leading ecommerce platform focusing on
urban areas, Totowaka is well poised to leverage increased mobile internet usage and tap
into rising urban areas of Africa. Moreover, our expansion can catalyze market growth and
convert existing customers of informal retail to digital ecommerce.
Free Trade inside Africa: Africa has the largest free trade area in the world after the
African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement came into effect. This will
facilitate participation on regional e-commerce platforms and boost intra-regional e-
commerce by improving postal competence, reducing delivery and transportation costs,
relaxing tax and custom regulations, and by introducing easier cross-country trade rules.
Brand Value: Totowaka has an already established brand value in Africa, along with
insights into consumption patterns of certain African middle class. They should continue to
leverage their African origin and knowledge of African markets in order to take their brand
value to more African nations. Expanding outside of Africa would be a financial risk.
# Region
Market
place
Visits/
Month
1 North America 55 4.4B
2 Europe 68 3.7B
3 East Asia 17 2.3B
4 Latin America 19 1.3B
5 Southeast Asia 13 710M
# Region
Market
place
Visits/
Month
6 Southern Asia 10 530M
7 Middle East 7 438M
8 Australasia 8 137M
9 Africa 6 52M
10 Central Asia 4 14M
5. CHALLENGES IN THE SYSTEM
CHALLENGE 2
FINDING THE BALANCE BETWEEN
GROWTH & PROFITABILITY
Totowaka lacks a clear aim to invest on, such
that they have taken a cost-intensive approach
to geographically expand to markets but they
are also trying to fix their current financial
instability. Both the steps have associated risks:
for improving the current market, there's a high
marginal cost of utility due to market
saturation; for expansion, there is an underlying
risk of huge sunk cost. While they have 600M in
cash to utilize, they need to decide whether to
focus on expansion for sustainability, or on
growth in the existing markets for profitability.
CHALLENGE 1
LACK OF A CLEAR VISION ABOUT
THE COMPANY’S CORE BUSINESS
Since its launch, Totowaka has been expanding
to new services before reaping the full potential
of each market. They started off as a food
delivery platform in 2014 and while the online
food delivery market is now a $725 M industry,
they launched an auction platform before even
maturing in the food delivery industry. In 2017,
they also entered the mobile payment services
market. This shift in focus to new services
without a properly planned trajectory hampered
the brand value of Totowaka and impeded their
growth in each industry.
CHALLENGE 3
LACK OF A CONSISTENT GO-TO
MARKET STRATEGY
The biggest challenge of Totowaka is the
absence of a proper go-to-market strategy. They
have entered new markets whimsically without
proper research on the potential. This is very
evident in the case of expanding to Europe and
UAE which only contributes to 1% and 0.5% of
the total revenue, respectively. The huge cost
they had to incur in order to expand
internationally clearly did not give the expected
ROI, all because myopic geographical expansion
This is also evident when they had to exit the
Tanzanian market. In short, the biggest
challenge of Totowaka is profiling potential
countries and personalizing their product mix to
fit those countries before expansion.
COUNTRY
CONTRIBUTION TO
REVENUE
PROBABLE REASON
UAE 1% The products didn’t
fit to the market;
very high
competition
Europe 0.5%
Tanzania Had to Exit
Social/Political
reasons
Plan Action Impact Risk
Short-term
Lean
investments to
improve
current
markets
Low cost, low
risk, short-term
increase of
profitability.
Hit a growth
plateau in the
long term,
marginal cost of
utility gets very
high
Long-term
Investments to
expand to
potential
markets
Huge
competitive
edge, very low
marginal cost of
utility in the
long run, attain
sustainability.
Entering a market
without proper
market testing
can have high risk.
100M Active
Accounts
MOBILE
FINANCIAL
SERVICES
2017
Year of Entering in the African Market
$463M
Worldwide
ONLINE
CLASSIFIEDS
MARKET
2015
$725M in
Africa
ONLINE FOOD
DELIVERY
SERVICES
2014
6. RECOMMENDATIONS: SELECTION CRITERIA & ALPHA PILOTING
SELECTION CRITERIA
MARKET READINESS MARKET POTENTIAL
• PROBABILITY
• MOBILE PHONE &
INTERNET PENETRATION
• TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
• EASE OF LOGISTICS
• GDP PER CAPITA
• MACRO-INDICATORS
• POPULATION
• DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES
1 2 3 4 5
4
3
2
1
MARKET
READINESS
MARKET POTENTIAL
PLATFORM
BUYER
SELLER
Delivery through 3rd
Party Logistics
Partner
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE ALPHA PILOTING
• LAUNCH ONLY WITH A SELLER TO
BUYER MODEL
• SEPARATE PARTNER FOR LOGISTICS
• PRODUCT LIABILITY LIES WITH THE
SELLER
• TOTOWAKA ACTS ONLY AS A
MARKETPLACE
RECOMMENDATION:
STANDARDIZING SELECTION CRITERIA FOR EXPANSION
RECOMMENDATION:
MARKET ALPHA PILOTING
Measuring Market Readiness (Feasibility): The adoption of technology of a country
is of utmost priority to identify its e-commerce potential. The rate of technology
acceptance will be based on factors such as, smartphone penetration rate, internet
penetration rate, number of mobile payment users etc. For example, South Africa
(0.51), Togo (0.43) and Zimbabwe (0.32), have the highest probability of increase in
use of digital technology in sub-Saharan Africa. (refer to case). Again, the smartphone
penetration is highest in South Africa (51%), followed by Ghana (35%) and Senegal
(34%). The internet penetration rate is highest in Kenya (85.2%), followed by Libya
(84.2%) and Nigeria (73%).
Measuring Market Potential (Scalability): Measuring Market: There are several
variables to be considered in order to statistically predict the market potential of any
country. Here, market potential means the propensity of the country’s population to
adopt ecommerce services. The factors that can be used are the GDP per capita,
number of existing ecommerce customers, average e-commerce user spending,
monthly visits on competitor ecommerce sites, availability of logistical services,
efficient delivery channels, current investment practices on ecommerce businesses
and startups etc.
Scorecard: The scorecard has a grid on which the countries that score a (5,5) get the
most priority as it scores the highest on both metrics. Upon listing down countries on
the objective metric we will also look at potential external risk factors (political
situation, competitors, existing resources available) and shortlist the countries to go
forward with alpha piloting.
After shortlisting and ranking the countries according to the mentioned metrics,
alpha piloting will be done in the countries with the highest ranking. We will partner
with established logistical facilitators in order to maintain a low-cost warehouse and
delivery mechanism. We will approach and onboard existing sellers who already have
in-store customers, with incentives such as 90-day no-commissions, free 60 product
pictures etc. with value propositions of high brand value of the platform, greater
reach to customers and expanded marketing of their products. We will onboard
sellers with diversified products in order to understand the demand of the specific
country.
SELLER STANDARD CATEGORY STANDARDS
Customer Service
Negative Feedback Rate
Response Rate of the seller to buyer’s messages
Return of items bought
Products and listing
Prohibited products
Allowable types of items: New, refurbished and used
Product categories and Global Trade Item Number/European
Article Number labels
Quality and aesthetic (African products standard)
Order processing and shipment
Cancellation rate/out-of-stock rate
Order processing rate
Shipment rate
Inventory Minimum number of stock keeping units
7. RECOMMENDATIONS: EVALUATING KPIs & PRIORITY PLAN
RECOMMENDATION:
EVALUATING SET KPIs & MILESTONES
The alpha piloting will run about 6 months to a year's
time. During this time, KPIs and milestones will be
used to determine the potential of a full-scale project.
Predictive models and different statistical analysis will
help explain the results of the KPIs and milestones.
The data obtained will include 4 key factors –
• Consumer buying patterns and satisfaction
• E-commerce literacy (the rate of conversion from
informal retail sector to ecommerce)
• Logistical needs & metrics (average spending,
most demanded product lines)
• Profitability Metrics (the range of price with most
clicks and purchases)
These data will be processed and visualized in order to
identify key elements for setting up full scale
operation (Appendix 3).
RECOMMENDATION:
PRIORITY PLAN FOR EXTENSION
The Priority plan for expanding is basically the ranking of countries according to their
score on three specific avenues- the country’s potential, the required product mix
and the logistical feasibility in that country. The previously set metrics will be
measured through the data collected from the piloting program. We will create a
weighted scorecard based on these metrics and create a ranking of the country
based on the primary data. The metrics will be correlated to the following indices to
rank the countries (Appendix 5):
Buyer Behavior &
Satisfaction
E-Commerce
Literacy
Logistical Needs Profitability
KPI 1 KPI 2 KPI 3 KPI 1 KPI 2 KPI 1 KPI 2 KPI 1 KPI 2
Country
1
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Country
2
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Country
3
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Country
4
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Buyer behavior
and satisfaction
E-commerce
literacy
Logistical needs
& metrics
Profitability
metrics
Buyer Behavior
E-Commerce
Literacy
Logistical Needs Profitability Weighted Score
Weight X% X% X% X% 100%
Country 1 xx xx xx xx xx
Country 2 xx xx xx xx xx
Country
Ease of
doing
business
index
E-
government
developmen
t index
Global
Competitive
Index
Inclusive
Internet
Index
Logistics
Performance
Index
UPU Post
Reliability
Score
Mauritius 13 66 52 N/A 78 66
Namibia 104 121 94 84 N/A 96
Ghana 114 101 111 60 106 74
BEST 3 AFRICAN COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THE INDICES
Ease of doing business index Logistics Performance Index
E-government development
index
Mobile Money Regulatory Index
Global Competitive Index UPU Post Reliability Score
Inclusive Internet Index
8. RECOMMENDATIONS: CAPITAL MIX & PRODUCT MIX
RECOMMENDATION:
DESIGNING THE CAPITAL MIX
In terms of finances a decision needs to be taken as to how much of the existing
600mil will be used in setting up the expansion to a new country as there are
concerns regarding financial inconsistencies.
Focus on Growth: But under our evaluation as a startup, it is better to roll in the
money in terms of expanding rather than targeting profitability. But also, we will not
be needing the entire amount from the 600 mil as we will target investors in the
country we are expanding to.
Local Investors: Our estimate is there will be some level of traction in terms of
getting investments as we will have our pilot results to show results and potential.
Getting local investors on board does not only benefit financially but also helps in
operations as they bring in knowledge of the market. As for our approach to get
investors, we will make a list of local and experienced investors. We will focus on low
cash conversion cycles and reduce fixed costs through strategic partnerships in order
to ease the market entry procedure.
Using that data from the pilot, we will make decisions on the both types of products
sold on the platform- third party and first party products. Since the product mix
strategy is glocalised, we will push the 3rd party sellers of the product line with
highest demand in order to capture most e-commerce sales in that country. We will
onboard the sellers with that specific product line who have good in-store tractions
and incentivize buyers to buy those products through our platform. As for the first
party products, since it will have to be sent from the sourcing plant to the
warehouses, there is an extra logistical cost on these. Hence, we will start with low
volume-high margin first part products on the market in order to create brand value
while absorbing the extra logistical cost. Then we will move to high volume-low
margin first products as soon as we have enough data to know which products have
certain demands and when we have a more efficient logistical system.
RECOMMENDATION:
IMPLEMENTING A SPECIFIC PRODUCT MIX
Low
Margin,
High
Volume
High
Margin,
High
Volume
Low
Margin,
Low
Volume
High
Margin,
Low
Volume
28
10
36
35
500
1000
52
20
83
68
850
1420
Furniture Electronics Household
Cleaners
Clothing &
Footwear
Food,
Beverage &
Tobacco
Total Retail
African Consumer Expenditure
(in billion USD)
2011 2016
EXTENSION FOR PRIORITY PLAN:
MAPPING MULTIPLE FACTORS
E-COMMERCE TRAFFIC E-COMMERCE TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE
9. RECOMMENDATIONS: OPTIMIZING LOGISTICS & AUGMENTED SERVICES
After setting up a warehouse and delivery system inside the country, some
optimizing steps are required to be able to increase the margin as well as provide
proper fulfillment services to sellers and satisfy consumers.
Predictive Modeling: With more data, statistical models will enable us to predict the
demand of a specific product along with the population cluster that demands it the
most, the specific time a product is in high demand, and the events that cause shifts
in the buying pattern.
Drop off & Pick Up Optimization: Based on this data, we can optimize the locations
for drop-off and pick-up points, the delivery routes that will be taken, and the
number of products that should be kept in inventory.
ERP & GIS Solutions: We will also digitize the entire logistical chain through an ERP
solution based on machine learning which will automatically use predictive statistical
models in order to present data-backed decisions for logistical optimization and
efficiency. Additionally, GIS solutions will be used to find the locations using which
reach can be maximized. It will help us map out routes to access communities in
hard-to-reach-by-road areas and minimize harm to environment (rainforests, water
bodies and African natural assets) by preventing infrastructural development that
hampers environment.
After reaching a certain level in brand value in the country and a stable revenue
stream, we will start upselling services like mobile payments through intense
incentivization. Refer to Appendix 4 for the current augmented services provided by
e-commerce companies.
Mobile Wallet: The proportion of the adult population with a mobile money account
in Africa in 2017 was more than Asia, Europe and Americas. Upselling the mobile
wallet of Totowaka with special discounts will incentivize existing users to opt into
the service.
Premium Services: On the logistical side, after reaching more efficiency in delivery
and accuracy in predicting demands, Totowaka can introduce premium service like
one-day delivery, special sales and discounts for subscribed premium buyers.
Seller Service Desk: Totowaka can introduce services like Seller Service Desk for
query management, a Seller Dashboard for sales statistics to make informed
decisions, Automatic Inventory Tracker, Application programming interface (API)
integration in seller websites and Seller training portal to teach sellers to use the
platform in order to advertise and sell more.
MOBILE WALLET PREMIUM SERVICES SELLER SERVICE DESK
RECOMMENDATION:
OPTIMIZING LOGISTICAL CAPABILITIES
RECOMMENDATION:
UPSELLING AUGMENTED SERVICES
A MIXED METHOD OF SELLER & MARKETPLACE BEING
RESPONSIBLE FOR DELIVERY WILL BE ADOPTED
Responsible
Party
Marketplace Responsible
Party
Marketplace
Seller
Afrikea, Craiglist, eBay,
Etsy, Fruggo, Opensooq
Seller Afribaba, BidorBuy, JiJi
Marketplace Novica, Souq Marketplace -
Seller or Marketplace Amazon Seller or Marketplace Jumia, Kilimall
AROUND THE WORLD IN AFRICA
Month
1 - 12
Month
13 - 24
Month 25 -
onwards
Planning Executing Developing
TIMELINE FOR THE RECOMMENDATIONS
10. STEP 3
Evaluating set KPIs and
Milestones
EXAMPLE: FLOW OF ACTION
STEP 1
Standardizing Selection
Criteria for Expansion
STEP 2
Market Alpha
Piloting
STEP 4
Priority Plan for
Extension
STEP 5
Designing the
Capital Mix
STEP 6
Implementing a Specific
Product Mix
STEP 7
Optimizing Logistical
Capabilities
STEP 8
Upselling Augmented
Services
PLANNING
EXECUTING
DEVELOPING
Step 1: First, an extensive list of countries is made according to some selected metrics to identify the countries in which we will conduct the alpha piloting.
Step 2: Then we onboard sellers according to the seller standards and will test product varieties to extract the consumer buying behaviors of the countries.
Step 3: Then we will set certain KPIs to measure performance.
Step 4: Let’s say from the shortlisted countries, we pick two countries, Namibia and Mauritius. We will decide on one country to enter first by examining the demographic variables.
Even though Mauritius has a smaller population, it has higher (56%) internet penetration, higher (61%) mobile phone penetration and a literacy rate of 93%. These are all very good
indicators to show the market potential of the country. So, we move forward with Mauritius and execute the expansion plan.
Step 5: Mauritius has a good chance of inviting investors since it has an E-governance
development index rank of 66, a Global Competitive Index rank of 52 and ease of doing
business rank 13.
Step 6: From the primary data collected through the piloting program, specific product
mix can be determined by considering the demand of the country.
Step 7: Since Mauritius has a logistical performance index of 78, the logistical centers
need to be located properly.
Step 8: From the information that there are only 6% mobile payment users in
Mauritius, it will be a great opportunity to educate and capture the mobile payment
market.
Country Population
Internet
Penetration
Mobile User
Penetration
Literacy Rate
Employment
to Population
Ratio
Rural
population
Mobile
Money Users
Ghana 30,417,856 39.00% 31% 79% 63% 44% 39%
Namibia 2,494,530 51.00% 29% 47% 50% 43%
Mauritius 1,269,668 56.00% 61% 93% 54% 59% 6%
Botswana 2,303,697 47.00% 39% 59% 31% 24%
Gabon 2,172,579 62.00% 45% 85% 42% 11% 44%
Libya 6,777,452 22.00% 66% 43% 20%
Cameroon 25,876,380 23.00% 23% 77% 74% 44% 15%
Country Population
Logisitics
Performance
Index
Ease of Doing
Business
Index
E-
Government
Development
Index
Inclusive
Internet
Index
Global
Competitive
Index
UNCTAD e-
commerce
readiness
2019
Ghana 30,417,856 106 114 101 60 111 97
Namibia 2,494,530 104 121 84 94 94
Mauritius 1,269,668 78 13 66 52 58
Botswana 2,303,697 87 127 81 91 100
Gabon 2,172,579 150 169 125 119 106
Libya 6,777,452 154 186 140 109
Cameroon 25,876,380 95 166 136 66 123 117
11. RISKS & MITIGATION
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
• Catalyst in minimizing damage to natural
resources by using GIS to minimize
environmental harm in logistical and
infrastructural development
• Energy efficiency to be achieved through
the partnership model of delivery
ENVIRONMENTAL
• Ensuring accessibility of e-commerce to
different communities across Africa
• Democratizing access to a wide spectrum of
retail products across Africa
• Creating working opportunities for local
communities
• Creating selling opportunities for small
retailers across the continent
SOCIAL
• Diversity ensured in the board through
investors from diverse African countries
• Stakeholder rights addressed in the
planning of expansion
GOVERNANCE
RISKS PROBABILITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT MITIGATION
Existing political factors and social
unrest may hinder the operations of the
country of operation in Africa.
3 5 3
Political factors and social unrest, along
with regulatory factors will be
considered in selection of countries.
Market alpha testing may lead to
misleading results, which in turn will
harm future business plans.
2 3 4
4 different dimensions of metrics will be
assessed for the market alpha testing.
The testing procedure also includes
testing of the market potential.
Inconsistent sales patterns and
consumer behavior may be identified
through market testing, resulting in no
benefit of the proposed
recommendations.
4 3 5
Alpha piloting will provide the solutions
for identifying sales patterns and
consumer behavior. On top of that, free
trade across Africa will act as an aid in
further expansion.
Due to 3rd party logistics and the only
existence of marketplace model without
fulfillment, brand value may be harmed
and diluted.
3 4 3
Clear communication of the
marketplace model is the core of
mitigating this risk. Seller and delivery
ratings and vetting will help solve sub-
par quality of products and services.
More focus on new markets may lead to
shift of focus from existing markets and
stagnant/negative growth in existing
markets.
3 3 3
Leveraging on existing brand value,
country specific loyalty programs will
continue. Additionally, marketing
campaigns and logistical developments
will continue.
Focusing on augmented services may
hinder the future roadmap of the
country and may close the possibility of
expanding outside Africa in the long run
forever.
2 2 3
As per the Gatekeeper’s theory, the
push in augmented services will only
take place when market is properly
acquired and thus, will not require
additional extensive use of resources.
PLANNING
EXECUTING
DEVELOPING
12. APPENDIX 1: PROFILES OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES
REGIONS COUNTRIES PROFILES
North
Economically prosperous
generates one-third of Africa's total
GDP
Comparatively even development
Intersects Arab world. Strong
Islamic population
Egypt helped this region minimize
economic contraction in 2020 (very
limited contraction in the region)
Egypt
- Most populous country in the region
- 3.6% growth rate
- 2nd largest African economy (394.28 billion USD)
- 54.74 million internet users
- South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Kenya together account for 78% of total eCommerce marketplace traffic in Africa
- Totowaka Inc. is present, entered in 2014 (same year as launch).
-Collaborated with Ministries of Health in Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco and South Africa to amplify health messages on Totowaka Inc.’s
digital platform.
- Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, and Côte d’Ivoire are Totowaka's leading markets
Algeria
- 4th largest African economy (151.46 billion USD)
- 57% of the population use internet (25.43 million people)
- South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Kenya together account for 78% of total eCommerce marketplace traffic in Africa
- Totowaka Inc. is present, entered in 2016
Morocco
- 5th largest African economy (124 Billion USD)
- 68.5% of population use internet (25.59 million)
- Totowaka Inc. is present, entered in 2014 (same year as launch)
-Collaborated with Ministries of Health in Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco and South Africa to amplify health messages on Totowaka Inc.’s
digital platform.
- Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, and Côte d’Ivoire are Totowaka's leading markets
Tunisia
- 68.4% of the population use Internet
- Totowaka Inc. is present, entered in 2016
Sudan, Libya 84.2% people in Libya use the Internet
South
Smallest and least populous
Overwhelming majority lives in
South Africa
High mobile penetration and
service sector-led workforce
This region was hit the hardest by
the pandemic (7% contraction)
projected growth - 3.2% in 2021,
2.4% in 2022
South Africa
- Responsible for making Southern Africa one of the most developed regions in Africa
- 3rd largest African economy (320.53 billion USD)
- Expected to return to growth in 2021, partly due to higher commodity prices. But recovery will remain sluggish
- A key market in value terms
- 57.5% people use internet (34.55 million)
- Totowaka Inc. focused on fashion apparel and footwear before the pandemic in South Africa; entered SA in 2014 (same year as launch)
- Totowaka's main competitor Devilliers' Delivers is located here, with Totowaka leading SA 20 million to 17 million monthly visits. 2nd
(Takealot.com) and 5th (Bidorbuy) closest competitor also located here with 10.5 million and 1.9 million monthly visits respectively.
- South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Kenya together account for 78% of total eCommerce marketplace traffic in Africa
-Collaborated with Ministries of Health in Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco and South Africa to amplify health messages on Totowaka Inc.’s
digital platform.
Namibia, Botswana, Swazliand, Lesotho -
13. APPENDIX 2: PROFILES OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES
REGIONS COUNTRIES PROFILES
West
16 countries with 411 million people
Most diverse subregion
Various different ethnic groups and
languages across this region
Many countries in this region maintain
positive growth in 2020 due to targeted
and less restrictive lockdowns
projected growth - 2.8% in 2021, 3.9% in
2022
Nigeria
- Most populous African country; capital Lagos is Africa's largest city
- Africa's largest economy; 514.05 billion USD
- Expected to return to growth in 2021, partly due to higher commodity prices. But recovery will remain sluggish
- wholesale and retail are third-largest contributor to Nigeria's GDP
- 73% of Nigeria's population use the internet which is 154.3 million people
- South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Kenya together account for 78% of total eCommerce marketplace traffic in Africa
- Totowaka Inc. was founded in Nigeria and offers an extended range of FMCGs in the country
- Totowaka pioneered big shopping events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday in key markets like Nigeria
-Collaborated with Ministries of Health in Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco and South Africa to amplify health messages on Totowaka Inc.’s digital platform.
- Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, and Côte d’Ivoire are Totowaka's leading markets
- In Nigeria and Kenya, households have limited access to PCs and tablets. Influx in affordable smartphones is observed which will enable mobile-centred retail
strategies, suppor interactive shopping apps, and improved client engagement.
- Totowaka's 4th closest competitor Konga is based in Nigeria with 2.3 million monthly visits
Senegal - Totowaka entered Senegal in 2018
Ghana
- industry is modernizing and expanding
- 14.7 million internet users
Côte d'Ivoire
- industry is modernizing and expanding
- Totowaka is present in the country from 2014 (year of founding)
- collaborated with Ministry of Health to amplify health messages on Totowaka Inc.'s digital platform
- Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya and Cote d'Ivoire is one of the leading markets for Totowaka
Mali
- 59.8% of the population are internet users
- In recent years there have been internet and social media restrictions across Tanzania, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Togo, Burundi, Chad, Mali, and Guinea
Mauritania, Cape Verde, Guinea, Togo, Burkina
Faso, Niger
-
East
Most populous subregion with 455
million people
One of the fastest-growing regions in the
world
Less reliance on primary commodities
(food, raw materials, oil and fuels, base
metals like tin, copper etc) so region is
resilient in terms of GDP growth
projected growth of real GDP: 3% in
2021, 5.6% in 2022
Djibouti
Kenya
- A top performer in 2021 from East Africa along with Djibouti, Tanzania, Rwanda.
- 54% growth in the number of retail stores over the last 5 years
- A key market in value terms along with South Africa
- In Nigeria and Kenya, households have limited access to PCs and tablets. Influx in affordable smartphones is observed which will enable mobile-centred retail
strategies, suppor interactive shopping apps, and improved client engagement.
Tanzania
- A top performer in 2021 in terms of growth of real GDP (4.1%).
- Totowaka entered in 2016 and exited 2019
Rwanda - A top performer in 2021 with 3.9% growth of real GDP
Ethiopia - 21.15 million internet users, internet restrictions in recent years
Uganda
- Totowaka entered in 2016
- Uganda introduced daily tax (~$0.05) on social media sites and potentially expanding to internet.
South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia, Zambia,
Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar
-
14. 84%
72%
72%
63%
60%
60%
Libya Mauritius Seychelles Cabo
Verde
Gabon Mali
Share of Internet Users
51%
35% 34% 32% 30%
13%
40%
45% 46% 48% 50%
62%
9% 20% 21% 20% 20% 25%
South
Africa
Ghana Senegal Nigeria Kenya Tanzania
Mobile Phone Penetration
Smartphone Basic Phone No Phone
APPENDIX 3: COUNTRY SCORES ACCORDING TO SELECTION CRITERIA
16. APPENDIX 5: GLOSSARY
UPU Postal Reliability Score: Provides an overview of postal development around the globe. This index offers a benchmark performance score
(from 0 to 100) along four dimensions of postal development: reliability, reach, relevance and resilience.
Logistics Performance Index: This index is a benchmarking tool created to help countries identify the challenges and opportunities they face in
their performance on trade logistics, and what they can do to improve their performance.
Ease of Doing Business Index: An aggregate figure with different parameters including construction permits, registration, tax payment
mechanisms and getting credit to determine the ease of doing business in a country.
E-government Development Index: A composite measure of the capacity and willingness of countries to use e-government for ICT-led
development. This index comprises three components: online service index, telecommunication infrastructure index and human capital index.
Inclusive Internet Index: Seeks to measure the extent to which the internet is not only accessible and affordable, but also relevant to all,
allowing usage that enables positive social and economic.
Global Competitive Index: An annual assessment of the drivers of productivity and long-term economic growth.