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Digital Download: 2020 Media Futures: Resilient Strategies
- 1. Strategic Foresight for Ontario’s Cultural Media Industries What will our media and entertainment look like by 2020? Principal Partner sLab at OCAD University Made possible by OMDC on behalf of the Ministry of Culture http:// 2020mediafutures.ca Twitter #2020mediafutures
- 2. What is it that keeps us up at night? What is it that brings us together? Implications for Action
- 7. sLab strategic foresight & innovation model systems thinking visual thinking design business futures user research business & policy models strategic foresight
- 8. War Games at RAND Corporation, 1958. Photo Leonard Mccombe, Time Life/Getty images Foresight was born in post-War research
- 9. Foresight spun off: from military to commercial
- 12. Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action
- 13. Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action
- 14. Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Delphi Survey Critical Uncertainties with Gabe Sawhney, sLab
- 15. Why scenarios? Lessons from Royal Dutch Shell Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Royal Dutch Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer http://media.csis.org/podcast/080401_p_energy_part1.mp3
- 16. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Ministry of Investment Lords of the Cloud Wedia Ant Hill diffusion of innovation measured, risk averse rapid, disruptive value generation commercially driven socially driven
- 17. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Ministry of Investment
- 18. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Lords of the Cloud
- 19. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Ant Hill
- 20. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Wedia
- 21. Workshop Principal Partner sLab at OCAD University Made possible by OMDC on behalf of the Ministry of Culture 2020 Media Futures
Hinweis der Redaktion
- I begin with two questions: What is it that keeps us up at night? What brings us together? I will argue it’s this exploding sphere (Opte Project, Barrett Lyon) The answer is: internet-driven digital media and the incredible pace of change
- In this year-long project we’re asking: How can we help our “Creative Cluster” firms to: -Identify emerging opportunities and challenges -Develop new initiatives, models, partnerships -Compete in demanding global markets-Boost innovation? And the answer we’re developing: “Strategic Foresight”
- In this year-long project we’re asking: How can we help our “Creative Cluster” firms to: -Identify emerging opportunities and challenges -Develop new initiatives, models, partnerships -Compete in demanding global markets-Boost innovation? And the answer we’re developing: “Strategic Foresight”
- In this year-long project we’re asking: How can we help our “Creative Cluster” firms to: -Identify emerging opportunities and challenges -Develop new initiatives, models, partnerships -Compete in demanding global markets-Boost innovation? And the answer we’re developing: “Strategic Foresight”
- What is Strategic Foresight? For those not acquainted with it, strategic foresight involves thinking about, debating, planning, and actively shaping the future. Foresight requires envisioning, understanding and making choices while anticipating and navigating change, recognizing and making sense of emerging signals from science and technology, the socio-cultural domain, the marketplace, the legal and political environments.
- sLab’s model addresses complex business problems through design thinking but in going further, we add futures thinking and, integrating the whole, systems thinking
- In the second great period of learning to pluralize the future, we developed a new form of research and learning. This era takes in an array of post-War settings, beginning with RAND Corporation, and including Herman Kahn’s Hudson Institute, the Stanford Research Institute (SRI), Jay Forrester’s work in System Dynamics at MIT, the multinational oil company, Royal Dutch/Shell, and a small number of consulting organizations including Global Business Network (GBN). RAND was founded in 1946 as a leading think tank for the U.S. military, working under exclusive contract to the Air Force. SRI, founded in 1947 was a university-based institute offering consulting services initially to the oil industry and later to business, the military and scientific organizations. Kahn founded The Hudson Institute in upstate New York after leaving RAND in 1961.In the beginning of my talk I suggested the cinematic origins of the term. But why did scenarios arise in this period?
- The popularization of scenario planning in the corporate context has been attributed to the Group Planning office at multinational oil behemoth Royal Dutch/Shell, beginning with Shell’s Ted Newland who approached Herman Kahn at his Hudson Institute in the 1960s. In the late 1950s Shell had adopted a radically decentralized and matrixed “group” structure on the advice of McKinsey & Company. As Art Kleiner has written: “Thanks to this structure, anyone like Ted Newland, with an idea that the future might change, could never simply convince one top boss or another to adopt the appropriate policies. Anyone who wanted Shell to change would have to find a way to make the future clearly visible, so a wide range of people within the company could see it coming.” (Kleiner 148) This idea helps to explain the power and relevance of scenario planning today. Our powerful technologies increasingly distribute agency and decision support to more and more levels and players in organizations and society. Communication technologies provide the conduit; but scenarios are need to draw on this diversity and bring coherence to the chaos. When conditions are right this enables the kind of Learning Organization described by Peter Senge in highly regarded works like The Fifth Discipline (Senge 1990), and The Living Company by Arie de Geus.
- The two separate Roundtables identified more than 60 drivers of which 40 were considered "high impact/importance" in one or more industry-centred discussions. Project researchers synthesized from 40 Drivers to a manageable and distinct list of 20 by mapping together synonymous or highly related issues (for example, "Government Subsidies" and "Continued Government Funding"). The list of 20 Drivers is prioritized according to number of industries selecting that driver (or a synonym) as "high impact". Topmost (dark orange) are Drivers selected as "High impact/importance" in 5 the 6 industries. Next drivers (in orange) were "high" in 4 of 6 industries, then 3 (dark yellow), 2 (yellow), and finally (light yellow) are drivers considered "High impact" in 1 of the 6 industries.
- Today our focus will be exploratory We need to be creative, open to extremes of thought (On Wednesday we will shift to a more normative perspective) How will we do this? Using the building blocks of scenario thinking