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Strategic foresight and scenario based planning
- 1. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight and Scenario-based Planning Visit us at www.alisinc.com to access this presentation, com plete with audio.
- 2. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Accelerating Velocity of Human Interaction is a Trend “Guilds” 19th Century 20th Century 21st Century ChangeRate Loosely Coupled Systems The world opened up for business at the end of the Cold War Ill-Defined Expansion of Global Markets and IT Capabilities The Velocity of Human Interaction Tightly Coupled Systems Time Industrial Age Information Age Time Compression Decision Cycles (DCs) (DCs) (DCs) (DCs) (DCs) - Reframe Periods
- 3. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Why Strategic Foresight? To Achieve Effective Strategic Planning Organizations across all sectors must develop and enhance their strategic planning through strategic foresight to enable them to – Succeed in the challenging environment of today, – Overcome emerging complex and ill-defined problems and – Posture for success in the future. Strategic planning is the continuous process of making present entrepreneurial (risk taking) decisions systematically and with the greatest knowledge of their futurity… (Peter Drucker) Strategic foresight informs strategic planning
- 4. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Our Thinking is Often Constrained by Limitations of Current Strategic Planning Models Assessment Baseline Components Down to Specifics Evaluate Where we are Where we want to be How we will do it How are we doing Six Sigma Project Methodology ControlDefine Measure Analyze Improve Project Phases Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Generally Employed Models Fail to Address Future Strategic Environments Sequential Segregating Rigid Procedural vice vice vice vice Continuous Integrating Adaptive Cognitive
- 5. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved What is Strategic Foresight? The Purpose of Forecasting is to be Prepared for Change “Thinking About the Future” Hines and Bishop, 2006 Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organizationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, explore new markets, products and services.
- 6. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight Methodology Frame Scan Forecast Vision Plan Act Current Environment Implications: • Primary • 2d & 3d order effects • Long-range • Unintended Possible Futures Plausible Futures Probable Futures Preferable Futures Develop Strategic Vision Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario- Based Planning Strategic Messaging Action Plan Strategic Guidance Learning System
- 7. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 1 – Frame Frame Current Environment Build the Strategic Foresight Core Team Orient on the Future Understand Stakeholders Understand Rationale and Purpose Set Objectives Map the Current Environment
- 8. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 2 – Scanning Adopt a global perspective Study relevant history Look for changing contexts Identify trends Integrate SME and disruptive thinkers Establish a learning system Scan Visit us at www.alisinc.com to access this presentation, com plete with audio.
- 9. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Learning Domains Knowledge Comprehension Application Analysis Synthesis Evaluation We are Here Cognitive Affective Psycho- Motor Receiving Responding Valuing Organization Characterization By value We are Here Imitation Manipulation Practice Precision We are Here Articulate Habit
- 10. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Triple Loop Learning Single & Double Loop Learning - Argyris and Schön Triple Loop Learning - Flood and Romm Detailed Planning Effective Execution Solving the Problem Right Solving the Right Problem Understanding Why it’s Right Problem Strategic Foresight Single Loop Learning - What to do. (Rules) Acting – Feedback - Changing Behavior Reframing – Changing our Thinking Transforming – Changing our perceptions Double Loop Learning - What to do. (Insights) Triple Loop Learning: Learning how to learn. (Principles) (Psycho-Motor Learning Domain)(Cognitive Learning Domain) (Affective Learning Domain)
- 11. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 3 – Forecast Forecast Possible Futures Plausible Futures Probable Futures Preferable Futures Identify drivers and uncertainties Comprehensive STEEP + Diverge – Generate Ideas Converge – Synthesize and Prioritize Develop alternative futures Start Point….. Current Environment Informed by… Scanning Outputs
- 12. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 4 – Vision Develop meta-questions Propose implications Derive 2d and 3d order effects Suggest long-range consequences Suggest unintended consequences Challenge existing assumptions Propose new assumptions Vision Implications: • Primary • 2d & 3d order effects • Long-range • Unintended Develop Strategic Vision A recommended strategic vision is the objective
- 13. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Promoting Organizational Innovation Organizational innovation starts with individual creativity Leaders must motivate the organization to be creative and innovative Resources must be available for innovations to be developed, experimented with and assessed Management practices must set conditions for the adoption of innovations that will improve ROI, adaptability and resiliency Amabile, T. (1997). Motivating creativity in organizations: on doing what you love and loving what you do. California Management Review.40 (1), 39-58.
- 14. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 5 – Plan Convert futures into scenarios Organizational vision (Step 4) is start point Generate ideas (divergent thinking) Cluster strategic options (convergent thinking) Satisficing strategy for plausible scenarios Optimized strategy for probable scenarios Initial analysis Recommended strategic options Plan Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario- Based Planning
- 15. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Conceptual Strategic Planning The Applied Design Methodology
- 16. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Scenario-based Planning Purposes Scenario- Planning Scenario Learning Evaluation Innovation Strategy/ Planning Focus: New Work Focus: Current Work Purpose: Prerequisite For Change Purpose: Action New Thinking/ Paradigm Shift Risk- Consciousness/ Need for Renewal Concept Development Strategy Development/ Organizational Development From: “Scenario Planning” By: Lindgren and Bandhold Visit us at www.alisinc.com to access this presentation, com plete with audio.
- 17. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 6 – Act Convert options to strategic guidance Strategic messaging (internal and external) Develop action plan to translate strategy into effective operations Structure and employ organizational learning system in support of strategy Execution Assessment Act Strategic Messaging Action Plan Strategic Guidance Learning System
- 18. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Scenario Development Process Leverage Collaborative Work Map system from plausible future Ideate to produce a future scenario Timeline Future History to that scenario Vision, beliefs and values relevant to scenario Stakeholders view of scenario at end state Graphic and Narrative Description Plausible Futures
- 19. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight Methodology Frame Scan Forecast Vision Plan Act Current Environment Implications: • Primary • 2d & 3d order effects • Long-range • Unintended Possible Futures Plausible Futures Probable Futures Preferable Futures Develop Strategic Vision Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario- Based Planning Strategic Messaging Action Plan Strategic Guidance Learning System
- 20. Copyright © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight and Scenario-based Planning For addition information on opportunities to educate and train individuals and organizations In Strategic Foresight and Scenario-based Planning Contact: James K. Greer, Senior Vice President, Strategic Leadership and Design Abrams Learning and Information Systems, Inc. jgreer@alisinc.com (703) 332-9801 www.alisinc.com (703) 379-4340
Hinweis der Redaktion
- This briefing outlines the Abrams Learning and Information Systems, Inc. (ALIS) program to educate of planners, analysts and decision makers in strategic foresight, alternative futures and scenario-based planning.The ALIS, Inc. Program is IACET compliant. Continuing Education Units can be awarded.
- Instructor Notes:What do we mean?What are some examples of acceleration relevant to your organization?What is a reframe?What are tightly coupled vs loosely coupled systems?The degree of interdependency affects coupling
- Instructor Notes:Making present decisions with a eye on the future.What are some examples of that aspect of strategic planning from their work?What is the contribution of strategic foresight to Drucker’s definition?Does strategic foresight contribute to near-term decisions? If so, how?
- Instructor Notes:Ask the students to describe the strategic planning approach their organization uses?Is it Sequential?Is it Segregating?Is it Rigid?Is it Procedural?Emphasize these models are all aimed at process. There is no content! No problem solving! No breadth and depth! No futures!
- Instructor Notes:Definition from “Thinking About the Future” by Hines and BishopWhat leaps out from the definition? What word (s) did you key in on?How will your organization use the results of strategic foresight?
- Instructor Notes:Strategic Foresight Methodology; a 6-step approachFrame the current environmentScan for trends, discontinuities, wild cards, and variablesForecast a range of alternative futuresDevelop a strategic vision based on futures implicationsConduct scenario-based planningProvide strategic guidance, strategic communications, a plan of action and a learning system.
- Instructor Notes:Strategic Foresight Methodology; a 6-step approachFrame the current environmentSet conditions by building an effective teamUnderstand the rationale, purpose and objectives for the strategic foresight effortMap the current environment
- Instructor Notes:Scanning is how we learn what we know in order to engage in strategic foresight, development of alternative futures and scenario-based planning.This is not possible without an organizational learning system. If we don’t have one, we must create one. Scanning must have both breadth and depth.
- Instructor Notes:This is one of the most important concepts. Perhaps the most important takeaway from the entire module.The psycho-motor domain equates to training and has a very technical and physical focus.The cognitive domain equates to education and has a very mental focus.The affective domain equates to socialization and has a very moral focus.We have to learn in all three domains if we are to be effective in our strategic foresight efforts.Ask the group, where are current metrics (data collection for learning) focused?Why do we lag in affective learning?Our culture tends to be more technical.We are ethno-centric (we mirror image others rather than learning about them)We are drawn to quantitative vice qualitative assessmentsHow can affective learning improve our strategic foresight and resiliency?
- Instructor Notes:The organization must learn in all three loopsMany organizations stay in the single loop modeTriple Loop learning is in all three domains.
- Instructor Notes:STEEP = Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and PoliticalAdd – Bureaucratic, information, what others?Differentiate between the types of futures.Preferable – I win the lotteryProbably – I don’t win the lotteryPlausible – I get 4 or 5 numbers right and win a small amountPossible – I win $600 million in the Powerball
- Instructor Notes:Goal is a strategic vision that is optimized across all probably futures and satisfices across plausible futuresAssumptions must be challenged, refined, rejected, proposed, testedImplications are critical to scenario-based planning that followsPosit an alternative future in which the US engages in a war in Korea with significant casualtiesWhat are the implications?What are the 2d and 3d order effects?What are the long-range consequences?What are some unintended consequences?What current assumptions do we have that would be invalidated?
- Instructor Notes:Organizational innovation is both an individual and collaborative effortLeaders set the tone for innovation. As with most things, unless the leader creates conditions for and promotes innovation, it won’t happen. What might a leader do to promote creativity and innovation?What are considerations for allocating resources to innovation?Probability of outcomeRange of possible gainRiskDesperation?Creative capabilities resident in organization.What management practices will hinder innovation?BureaucracyRisk aversionBias“not invented here syndrome”“the way we’ve always done it” syndromeLack of confidence on the part of leaders
- Instructor Notes:One of the critical aspects of strategic foresight is the transition to scenario-based planningScenarios are adjustments off the alternative futures from forecastingMore definition. Focus on what’s relevant to the major issuesUse the scenarios to develop and then synthesize strategic options.
- Instructor Notes:Applied Design is an adaptation off the Army Design MethodologyFocuses on framing current and desired environmentIdentifying the problems getting from here to thereDevelop innovative solutions to those problemsAssess throughout planning and executionMake organizational adaptations as identified in conceptual or detailed planning
- Instructor Notes:Scenario planning serves multiple purposes; not just strategic planningEffective scenarios are structured to address each of these requirementsWhich of the purposes do the members of the group think most important? Elicit answers from groupWhat other purposes might scenario-based planning serve? Elicit answers from group.Marketing/strategic communications supportAdoption of new roles and responsibilitiesArgument for resources
- Instructor Notes:Without action strategic foresight is worthlessStrategic foresight enables effective Executive and strategic messaging. The Futures works enables the development of themes and messages and provides support for innovations and resource investments.Strategic guidance derived from foresight and scenario-based planning guides the future operations of the entire organization.Strategic foresight also provides insights into and the basis for what should be assessed and how.The organizational learning system put in place for strategic foresight is adapted to execution and assessment
- Instructor Notes:Starting from an alternative future and the understanding of the trends, discontinuities, etcWe apply this process to develop scenariosUse brainstorming and affinity diagrams to develop ideas about the scenarioPut as much detail into the timeline as necessary
- Instructor Notes:Strategic Foresight Methodology; a 6-step approachFrame the current environmentScan for trends, discontinuities, wild cards, and variablesForecast a range of alternative futuresDevelop a strategic vision based on futures implicationsConduct scenario-based planningProvide strategic guidance, strategic communications, a plan of action and a learning system.
- This briefing outlines the Abrams Learning and Information Systems, Inc. (ALIS) program to educate of planners, analysts and decision makers in strategic foresight, alternative futures and scenario-based planning.The ALIS, Inc. Program is IACET compliant. Continuing Education Units can be awarded.