This presentation was given at the HR-Tech Conference in Dubai in May 2018. It discusses the impact of artificial intelligence on the future of jobs:
- Digital Transformation: Hype or reality
- The impact of AI and Robotics in the workspace
- What jobs are likely to get displaced
- Can we retool our competencies to stay relevant
- How can HR leverage Digital Transformation
It contains video content too and would, therefore, be best viewed by downloading it and watching it as a PowerPoint Presentation.
4. The Truman Show, 1998
Truman Burbank, an insurance salesman/adjuster thinks
that he is an ordinary man with an ordinary life.
In fact he has no clue that the town he lives is a gigantic
studio with hidden cameras everywhere, and the people
around him are actors who play their roles in the popular
TV-series “The Truman Show” watched 24/7 by millions
of viewers around the world.
Until one day…. he discovers, that his entire life is a fake
existence
5. “the chip could compromise security and hold a
lot of private information. The question is: What
happens to it afterwards? What is it used
for? Who is going to be using it? Who is
going to be seeing it?”
Microbiologist Ben Libberton,
Swedish University Karolinska Institute
April 4, 2017
Swedish company Epicenter will embed a chip
into about 150 workers, so bosses can monitor
how long they work.
SOME workers have been implanted with
microchips that allow the companies that employ
them to track their every move.
PROGRAMMED SPECIES
6. 1. Doubling of Human Knowledge
• Beginning of 20th century, doubled
in a century
• By end of WW2, doubled in 25
years
• 2015: estimated doubling in 13
months
• 2006 IBM Report: With maturity of
IoT, doubling will be every 12 hours
Richard Buckminster Fuller
American architect, systems theorist,
author, designer, and inventor
THE EXPONENTIAL
PROLIFERATION OF ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
How does one become BANKRUPT
Two ways: Gradually and then Suddenly
7.
8. 3. Speed of digital computing
• Signals within computers today
traveling at the speed of 200
million meters a second
THE EXPONENTIAL
PROLIFERATION OF
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
9. 1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
(Weak Intelligence)
- Machines programmed to follow specific instructions.
- Does what we TELL it to do to sophisticated levels.
- SIMULATES the human brain.
- No cognitive, emotive & volitive capabilities.
2. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
(Strong Intelligence)
- EMULATES the human brain.
- Has cognitive, emotive & volitive capabilities.
- Can reflect on its goals and decide to adjust if needed
- Can run tests on itself and improve its design
EVOLUTION OF A.I.
“…..the next wave of innovation will be
the automation of automation eliminating
those lucrative software development jobs,
because its maths after all”
Mark Cuban,
Billionaire investor on a Bloomberg TV interview
10. EVOLUTION OF A.I.
3. SUPER INTELLIGENCE
Birth of “Ultra Intelligent Machine” which can design
successively better machines leading to Intelligence
Explosion – leaving human intelligence far behind
“The first Ultra-
Intelligent
machine is the last
invention man
need ever make
which could lead
to his extinction”
I.J. Good,
British Mathematician
11. • The human brain has approximately 90
billion neurons (nerve cells) linked together by
trillions of connections called synapses. Put
together this network provides hundreds of
trillions of different pathways through which
the brain signals get transmitted.
The capacity of the human brain is about ONE
Petabyte equal to…..
= 1 million Gigabytes or 1,024 Terabytes
= 341 million 3-minute MP3s
= 62,500 fully loaded 16gb iPads which when
stacked on top of each other is 2,604 feet tall –
almost equivalent to the Burj Khalifa
A few years ago
Scientists needed more
than
82,000
processors
running on one of the
world’s fastest
supercomputers to mimic
one second
of a normal human brain
activity.
12. Are Business Leaders
Ready for Industry 4.0?
Deloitte Global Report
Surveying 1600 CXOs & Government Agencies
in 19 countries
• STRATEGY
Focused on traditional NEAR TERM
business operations leaving huge
opportunities untapped in pursuing
innovative business models.
• TALENT
No urgency for tackling challenge of the
future workforce. Concerned, but feel no
radical changes necessary. Around 25%
feel they have the right workforce
• TECHNOLOGY
Integrated digital technologies that improve
operations:
- 20% CXOs highly prepared to handle
new business models
- Less than 15% highly prepared for smart
& autonomous technologies
• Most CXOs are aware, but uncertain how
to take action…..
while change is accelerating exponentially
• Only 14% CXOs highly confident that they
are ready for full potential of Industry 4.0
13. AMELIA, an artificial call centre agent
• Speaks 20 languages
• Learns from her human co-workers
• Taken over 30% of the calls at a trial
call centre.
• McKinsey: by 2025, automated s/ware
will replace 250 million knowledge
workers worldwide. That's almost 50%
of India's current working population.
1. Tele sales/call centre employees
Rapidly developing and deploying working
software is critical in technology firms.
To enable this, developers are now using
QA automation tools making several QA
engineers redundant
2. QA software tester
Increased mechanisation and farm
productivity:
• USA: less than 2% population
directly employed in agriculture.
• India, currently 50% of the
population.
• Farming technology providing cost-
effective labour solutions &
increased productivity
• Days of the individual farmer are
numbered.
• Wealthy land owners and corporations
will take over this sector reducing
employment dramatically.
3. Farmers
Increasing robotization of manufacturing
jobs.
• Japan: Over 1,500 robots for every
10,000 workers in the automobile
manufacturing industry.
• They are faster, better and increasingly
cost effective.
• Accelerating use across globe in
manufacturing and production,
impacting the livelihood of factory
workers.
4. Factory workers
13 JOBS that will be phased out
The Future of
WORK
Art Bilger, Venture Capitalist & Board Member
of the Wharton Business School cited an
Oxford study:
“All developed nations will see a loss of
47% in the next 25 years in blue and
white collar jobs beginning with the
manufacturing industry”
14. • Associated Press publishes over
3,000 financial reports quarterly using
Wordsmith.
• 8.5% of Wikipedia's total content is
written by bots.
• Reason: advertising revenues dropping
for news agencies and print media.
• Efficient software is up to the task.
Hence fewer human news reporters,
more op-eds.
5. News reporters
• Online degrees, is eliminating the
need to go to college to pursue
expensive higher education.
• Supplementary education like tuition
and coaching is being served by apps
and online classes.
• Reduction in teaching salaries and
number of teachers required.
• Primary education and schools will be
needed.
• More of Webinars, less of physical
conferences.
6. Teachers
Bernard J Tyson, CEO,
Kaiser Permanente, USA
“No physician today should be
practicing without artificial
intelligence. Its just impossible
to pick up on patterns and
trends to monitor care”
Kaiser Permanente is one of the largest
integrated managed care consortium in the
United States, founded in 1945 by
industrialist Henry J. Kaiser and physician
Sidney Garfield
• IBM Watson, is set to revolutionise
medical diagnosis with a projected
ability to give accurate, consistent,
free diagnosis of medical
conditions.
• Smart phones interfacing with remote
health monitoring devices and
computerised medical history
• Fewer health care professionals
required due to remote treatment.
7. Health workers
• Junior lawyers and Para-legals have to
go through physical records to gather
and synthesise information in the
discovery phase and draft legal
documents before a trial.
• Software like Legal-Zoom, can
perform the task faster, thus
dramatically reducing the number of
these jobs.
8. Lawyers & Paralegals
The Future of
WORK
13 JOBS that will be phased out
15. The Future of
WORK • Small businesses are migrating to do-
it-yourself Accounting software
requiring fewer hours of work by human
accountants.
• Reducing wage bills
• Demand for professional
accountants will decline
significantly in the next 10 years.
9. Accountants
• Driverless cars, trucks & metros:
• US has 3.5m truck drivers; 650,000 bus
drivers & 230,000 taxi drivers.
• Drones are used for deliveries.
• Fewer accidents, faster travel
• No jobs for drivers: Uber, Carlyft, etc
11. Drivers
• In supermarkets & large stores,
cashiers are being replaced by
automated self-checkout systems
• Billing based on automated scanners /
RFID chips.
• Payment by card or digital wallet
• No queues, no jobs for cashiers.
10. Cashiers
• Hennna hotel, Nagasaki world's first
hotel to have only robot staff.
• Restaurants across the world are
experimenting with touch screens at
tables for ordering food, robotic
waiters / self-service to pick it up and
automated systems to perfectly cook
fast food.
• The hospitality segment, employing up
to 5% of the workforce will lose
millions of jobs.
12. Hospitality Workers
13. Tailors, Shoemakers….
Automation of mass produced “pattern
driven” products such as readymade
garments, shoes, can result in the loss of
1000s of jobs in Third World countries
exporting to West. 3D Printing.
13 JOBS that will be phased out
Robotic Sales: Between 2008-13
178,000 industrial robots sold worldwide:
37,000 to China
30,000 to USA
Rest to Europe, Japan and others
China the largest investor in AI
16. Employee Engagement Survey
(David Macleod and Nita Clarke)
Organizations in TOP QUARTILE
Productivity:
Customer
Ratings:
Absenteeism:
Profitability:
18%
12%
37%
16%
BOTTOM QUARTILE
for employee engagement:
Staff Turnover Accidents Inventory
Shrinkage
16% 62% 51%
1. Provide a compelling Employee
Experience combining Consumer
(Employee) focus with technological
skills.
Motivated & engaged employees
drive positive results
Survey by Emolument.com from 55
countries (CIPD People Magazine, 22 Feb 2017)
EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT
• Highest boredom: Legal (81%), Project
Mgt (78%), Support functions (71%)
• CEOs as prone as junior staff
What do employees want?
A meaningful day’s work knowing that they
added value to themselves and their
company.
WHY HR IN DIGITAL
TRANSFORMATION
The Future of
WORK
17. WHY HR IN DIGITAL
TRANSFORMATION
1. Provide a compelling Employee
Experience combining Consumer
(Employee) focus with technological
skills.
Why? A motivated employee drives
positive results
2. Provide immediate information:
Available 24/7 in less than 10 minutes
especially to those in remote areas
who cannot access HR in person.
3. Delegate 80% of routine non-
essential jobs to AI
and focus on the strategic
4. Cost efficiency in the workplace:
Lean, efficient and effective
The Future of
WORK
18. “THE INTELLIGENT HR ASSISTANT”
A CHAT(RO)BOT is an AI interface with
a set of computer algorithms designed to
simulate and interact in a human
“conversation”.
THREE CHATBOT
INTERFACES FOR HR
HDFC Bank one of the
largest private banks in India
rolled-out an AI powered
customer call center
capable of answering 1
million+ permutation &
combination of queries 24/7
1. HR Service Center
to answer frequently asked Employee
questions ….vacation days, medical
benefits, inform them of new programs,
public holidays, analytics of potential
problems based on frequently asked
questions such as delays in travel
expense or vacation processing.
Example: Jane created by Loka
19. 2. Talent Acquisition & new employee
onboarding
Tap multiple sources to obtain candidate
profiles, schedule interviews, flight and hotel
arrangements, answer candidate queries,
reminders to Talent teams and candidates
Example Talla to compile interview questions
based on the job profile, conduct tests &
score, prepare job descriptions.
Aim: to be a real time adviser to HR
Professionals.
How about a VR tour of the company for new
hires?
THREE CHATBOT
INTERFACES FOR HR
“THE INTELLIGENT HR ASSISTANT”
20. 3. Teaching Assistants
- “Massive Open Online Courses” (MOOC)
exploded from 16-18 million in 2014 to 35
million by end of 2015.
- In 2016 Prof Goel of Georgia Institute of
Technology added an AITeaching Assistant,
Jill Watson (powered by IBM Watson
analytics) to provide faster answers &
feedback to students queries.
- Jill was able to answer 40% questions
freeing the human assistants to focus on more
complex inquiries.
- Jill reminds students of submissions, exams,
due dates.
- Jill was developed to operate at the level
of an expert.
“THE INTELLIGENT HR ASSISTANT”
A CHAT(RO)BOT is an AI interface with
a set of computer algorithms designed to
simulate and interact in a human
“conversation”.
THREE CHATBOT
INTERFACES FOR HR
HR will need to acquire
more knowledge about
to streamline and
improve the Employee
Experience through active
Engagement
21. Expected Challenges in the
AI-R impacted Workplace
1. Excess supply over demand
with AI displacing certain jobs
2. Possible Impact on salary levels
excess talent supply due to replaceable jobs
3. New paradigms of talent management
Measure & reward performance between
humans & AI-R
4. Higher productivity, consistent quality, lean
worforce, lower maintenance, nil workplace
conflict, ability to expand AI skillsets will
incline businesses to increasingly adopt AI-R
5. Universal basic wage
to aid displaced workers
6. Re-skilling & adaptive mindset
7. Business opportunities
Outsourcing, shared services, AI rental -
converting from Capex to Opex (example:
cloud computing)
Phillip Perry, December 27, 2016
The problem is not that there aren’t enough
jobs, but that there aren’t enough
“relevantly skilled” workers.
Vishal Sikka, Ex-CEO, Infosys
“…there is absolutely no doubt that 60-70% of
our jobs are going to be wiped out by AI over
the next 10 years, or maybe in less than 10 years
unless we continue to evolve ourselves."
22. Those who resist change will soon
find themselves living in a world
that does not exist
Stephen Covey
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