Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture

ABHILASH
Ph.D. Student
Dept. of Agricultural Meteorology
CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar

Introduction
 About 54.6% population of India
depends on agriculture for their
livelihood.
 Around 67% of the population reside
in rural areas.
 Contribution in GDP: 17.32%
 Net sown area : 139.9 million hectares
 Net Irrigated area : 66.1 mha (47%)

According to IPCC Climate change refers to a statistically significant
variation in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using
statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its
properties, which persists for an extended period, typically decades or
longer, which may either be due to natural or anthropogenic variability.
Climate change

Common
name
Chemical
formula
GWP values for 100-year time
horizon
Second
Assessment
Report (SAR)
Fourth
Assessment
Report (AR4)
Fifth
Assessment
Report (AR5)
Carbon
dioxide
CO2 1 1 1
Methane CH4 21 25 28
Nitrous
oxide
N2O 310 298 265

Annual Mean Global Growth Rates for year 2017
Carbon dioxide CO2 2.2 ppm/yr
Methane CH4 7.3 ppb/yr
Nitrous oxide N2O >0.75 ppb per year.
1.89
ppm/yr
For 2017

Recent Global
Concentration
(July 2018)
CO2 406.39 ppm
CH4 1850.5 ppb
N2O 330 ppb

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2017)
Carbon dioxide (CO2): Methane (CH4): Nitrous oxide (N2O):
•Primary source – Use of Fossil
fuel.
•Deforestation
•Decay of biomass
•Shifting Cultivation practice
•Agricultural activities
•Waste management
•Energy use
•Biomass burning
•Coal mining
•Primary source - Application of
synthetic fertilizer and manure
management in agricultural
lands
•Other land management

According to a 2015 report of Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
related to climate Change in India
Agriculture sector had emitted 18% of the country’s total annual GHG emissions which
was around 334.41 million tons of CO2 equivalent in year 2007.
Livestock: Enteric fermentation
Manure management
Rice Cultivation: All forms; irrigated,
rainfed, deep water and upland rice.
Agricultural Soils: source of N2O,
mainly due to application of nitrogenous
fertilizers in the soils.
Field Burning of Crop Residue:
emission of a number of gases and
pollutants.
Greenhouse Gas Emission from Agriculture Sector in India

Source: WRI, Washington D.C, U.S.A, 2017.

• Physiology
• Phenology
• Morphology
• Food demand
• Costs and benefits
• Policy
• Trade
• Farmers response
Adaptation Strategies
Mitigation Strategies
• Soil fertility
• Irrigation availability
• Pests
• Floods and Droughts
• Sea level rise
Assessing their Impact on
agricultural production
Impacts of Climate change on Agriculture

Climate
Extremes
Drought
Flood
Heavy Rain
Cyclones
Wind
Dryness
Heat Wave
Cold Wave
Natural
Hazard
Freeze
Natural
Disasters
Agriculture: Crops,
Livestock, Forests:
Water: Irrigation,
Urban, Industrial
Ecosystems,
Environment
Loss of life and
Property
Storm
Surge
Saline intrusion,
Beach erosion,
Water contamination,
Power disruption
Damage to Crops
Sectoral
Impacts
Loss of productivity
Food security
Competition,
Quality, Efficiency
Destruction of
Biodiversity
Quality of Life
Coastal
Ecosystem

Source: IPCC, 2007, in FAO, 2008a
Events Potential impacts
 Cold periods becoming warmer and
shorter;
 Days and nights becoming hotter.
 Increased yields in temperate regions;
decreased yields in tropical regions;
 increased outbreaks of new insect pests and
pathogens;
 Heavy precipitation leading to Floods  Damage to crops; soil erosion;
 inability to cultivate land owing to water
logging of soils
 Drought (frequently occurred)  Land degradation and soil erosion;
 lower yields from crop damage and failure;
loss of arable land
 Intense tropical cyclone  Damage to crops
 Extremely high sea levels  Salinization of irrigation water,
 estuaries and freshwater systems;
(IPCC, 2014, & FAO )

Adaptation Mitigation
Adaptation measures deal with
the impacts of climate change
and have the objective of
reducing the vulnerability of
human and natural systems.
Mitigation addresses the
causes of the climate change,
which involves reducing
greenhouse gas concentration
in the atmosphere.
What can we do to address climate change?
What actions can be taken in the agricultural sector?
There are two main actions we can take:
• on the one hand, we need to adapt to climate change effects (adaptation);
• on the other hand, we should intervene on its causes (mitigation).

 Adaptation is defined as the activities by individuals,
groups and governments that aim “to reduce the
vulnerability of human or natural systems from the
impacts of climate change and climate-related risks,
by maintaining or increasing adaptive capacity and
systems resilience.
Adaptive capacity: ability of a system to adjust to
climate change (climate variability and extremes) to
moderate potential damages, to take advantage of
opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Vulnerability : degree to which a system or society is
susceptible to, and unable to cope with adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability and
extremes.
Resilience: ability to absorb disturbances, to be
changed and then to re-organize and still have the same
identity (retain the same basic structure and ways of
functioning).
What is Adaptation?

Diversify sources of household income & Participate in income stabilization
programmes
Promote community based risk management measures to face crop failures and
soaring food prices (grain banks, self help groups)
Develop innovative risk financing instruments and insurance schemes to reduce
climate-related risks (e.g. weather/climate indexed crop insurance)
Examples
Traditional development practice,
where activities take little or no account of specific climate change impacts
and have many benefits in the absence of climate change (so called “no-regret”
options).

In this zone of the continuum
adaptation focuses on building robust systems for problem solving, like :-
development of communications systems and planning processes
improvement of mapping
•by using cartographic techniques
•& GIS
weather monitoring
•Strengthening early warning systems
•Better use of climate and weather data, weather forecasts, and other management tools
and natural resource management practices (NRM).

1. Reducing soil erosion and land degradation (improved soil management).
Examples of management of land and water resources
a) encouraging improved irrigation
methods like drip and sprinkler
irrigation
b) line canals with plastic films.
c) improving infrastructures for small-
scale water capture, storage and use
d) reducing distribution losses of irrigation
water
e) Reuse wastewater for agriculture
f) rainwater harvesting
3. Changing land topography to improve water uptake and reduce wind erosion.
a) subdividing large field
b) maintaining grass in waterways
c) roughening the land surface
d) building windbreaks and shelterbelts
2. Improving water use efficiency and availability.
a) Contour farming.
b) Strip cropping
c) Growing Cover crops.
d) Crop Rotation
e) Mixed Cropping
f) Mulching
g) Bunding
h) Terracing
i) Windbreaks & Shelterbelts
j) Organic manure

1. Conservation of genetic resources.
2. Change farming practices to conserve soil moisture, organic matter and nutrients
3. Adopt “best practices” that improve forest resilience and promote healthier
forests.
a) Use stubble and straw mulch , Rotate crop, avoid mono-cropping & use lower planting
densities
b) Advance sowing dates to offset moisture stress during warm periods
c) Adjustment of planting dates in such a way that flowering period of crop avoid and don’t
coincide with the hottest period to minimize the effect of increased temperature – which
induce spikelet sterility to reduce yield instability.
d) Changing the cropping calendar to take advantage of the wet period and to avoid extreme
weather events (e.g., storms & cyclones) during the growing season.
Examples of management of crop, livestock and forest resources
a) appropriate thinning regimes
b) reduced impact logging
c) fire and pest management.
4. Adopt controlled livestock grazing practices to improve soil cover, increase water
infiltration/retention and promote natural soil forming processes.

In this zone of the continuum
adaptation efforts focus more specifically on climate change hazards and impacts.
In areas under frequent threat of climate-related emergencies
disaster risk reduction (DRR) and
disaster risk management (DRM) are key entry points for climate change adaptation.
Example
Availability and accessibility of good quality seeds is paramount to enhance the
resilience of food production systems against climate-related hazards and other shocks
Short-cycle seed varieties allow
 replanting in events of delayed rain
 It reduce growing time
 harvesting before the peak of the cyclone season
 or for a quick harvest following re-planting after cyclones and flooding.

This category includes highly specialized activities exclusively targeting distinct
climate change impacts
 relocation of communities due to sea level rise
 responses to glacial melting
 building large scale irrigation systems
 plant breeding in response to shifting agro-ecological zones and new
stresses
Example

Mitigation strategies in agriculture

1. Reducing emissions of Greenhouse Gases
1. Adopting improved cropland management practices .
 Minimal soil disturbance (minimum and zero tillage)
 Improved grazing management (e.g. Stocking rate management,
rotational grazing) can reduce emissions from volatilization of organic soil
carbon.
 Integrated nutrient management can reduce emissions by reducing
leaching and volatile losses
 Improving nitrogen use efficiency through precision farming
 Improving fertilizer application timing
 restoration of eroded and salinized soils
 Conversion of agriculturally marginal soils to pastures or forest lands

2. Improving livestock feeding practices to reduce emissions from enteric fermentation
 Using dietary additives to increase efficiency of the digestive process
 improvements in forage quality and quantity
 seeding fodder grasses or legumes with higher productivity and deeper roots
3. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation
 Reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) and adopting sustainable
management of existing forests can reduce emissions.
4. Adopting improved aquaculture management
 Selection of suitable populations of aquatic species
 increasing feeding efficiency
 switching to herbivorous or omnivorous aquaculture species will reduce emissions
from input use.

2. Avoiding and displacing emissions
1. Improving post-harvest practices
 Reducing post harvesting food losses (improved storage and post-harvest
handling) will contribute to decreasing emissions.
2. Improving energy use in agricultural production
 Increasing energy efficiency and replacing fossil fuels with biofuels will reduce
emissions per unit of food produced.
3. Use of fishing practices that adhere to the principles of the Code of Conduct for Responsible
Fisheries
 Fishing and fish processing are conducted in ways that minimize negative impacts
on the environment, reduce waste, and preserve the quality of fish caught.
 Fishers should keep records of their fishing operations
 Protect fish resources and avoid overfishing
 Dynamiting, poisoning and other destructive fishing practices should be
prohibited
 Punishment for violations could include fines or even the removal of fishing
licenses if violations are severe

3. Removing emissions
1. Improved agronomic practices
 Reduced tillage (minimal cultivation)
 Use of cover crops
 incorporation of crop residue
 High carbon crops (fruit or nut orchard, vines, tea, coffee)
2. Improved soil & water management
 Contour farming, Strip cropping, Growing Cover crops, Crop Rotation, Mixed
Cropping, Mulching, Bunding, Terracing, Windbreaks & Shelterbelts, Organic
manure etc
 drip and sprinkler irrigation & line canals with plastic films, reducing distribution
losses of irrigation water etc
3. Agro-forestry, afforestation/reforestation, forest restoration increase Carbon storage
 combining crops with trees for timber and fodder.
 establishing shelter belts and riparian zones/buffer strips with woody species
systems.
 conversion from non-forest to forest land use.
 and from degraded forests to fully carbon stocked forests.
4. Planting mangroves in coastal areas
 Replanting mangroves in coastal areas will create carbon sinks

Table: Effect of long-term tillage & crop establishment methods and cropping systems
on total soil OC (on equivalent mass basis) in the 0–15 and 15–30 cm layers.
PB: Zero tilled permanent bed
ZT: Zero tillage flat, Collectively Both
PB & ZT : are CA (Conservation Agriculture)
CT: Conventional tillage flat
MWMb: Maize-Wheat-Mungbean
MCS: Maize-Chickpea-Sesbania
MMuMb: Maize-Mustard-Mungbean
MMS: Maize-Maize-Sesbania.

Table: Impact of long-term tillage & crop establishment methods and diversified
cropping systems on N2O -N emission during fifth year (2012−2013) of
experimentation.
+ =

Figure: Interactive effect of long-term tillage & crop establishment methods and
diversified cropping systems on annual global warming potential (GWP) due to N2O
emission

Table: Notations & description of management protocols under different Scenarios in rice-wheat (RW) rotation.
6
9
FP: Farmer’s practice
IFP: Improved farmer’s practice
CSA: Climate smart agriculture
CT: Conventional tillage
RT: Reduced till
ZT: Zero till
TPR: Transplanted rice
CTW: Conventional till wheat
DSR: Direct seeded rice
MCP: Multi crop planter
RTW: Reduced till wheat
RDD: Rotary disc drill
ZTW: Zero till wheat
HS: Happy Seeder
SR: State recommendation for
irrigation
FFP: Farmer’s fertilizer practice
RDF: Recommended dose of
fertilizer
NCU: Neem coated urea
GS: Green Seeker
NE: Nutrient expert based fertilizer
recommendation
ICT: Information and
communication technology.

Table: Effect of management practices portfolios on grain yield, cost
of cultivation and net returns under different scenarios during year
2014–15, 2015–16 and 2016–17.

Table: Irrigation water use and water productivity under different
scenarios during the year 2014–15, 2015–16 and 2016–17.

Figure: Global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gases
intensity (GHGI) of rice-wheat system under different scenarios
(Treatment bars followed by a different letter within a group are significantly different at P < 0.05
according to Tukey’s test).

Figure: Distribution of rainfall (weekly total) over the wheat
growing season for the years 2013–14 and 2014–15 and long-term
average of weekly total (1982–2013).

Table: Area, production, yield and percentage yield loss in wheat
during 2013–14 and 2014–15.
Table: Wheat yield (Mg/ha) under alternative production systems in
normal and bad year.

Figure: Input cost for wheat production under various tillage
and crop establishment method.
CT: conventional tillage
ZT: zero-tillage
ZT+R: zero-tillage with residue retention.
Vertical bars shows the standard error of the mean (n=120).
Adapted from Aryal et al. (2015).

Figure: Rice, wheat and rice-wheat grain yield under different tillage and crop
establishment methods in eastern Indo- Gangetic Plain (IGP).
PuTPR-CTW: puddled transplanted rice followed by conventional tilled wheat;
ZTR-ZTW (–R): zero-tilled rice followed by zero-tilled wheat without residue retention
ZTR-ZTW (+R): zero-tilled rice followed by zero-tilled wheat with residue retention.
Adapted from Jat et al. (2014).

Figure: Irrigation water productivity of wheat under different tillage and residue
management strategies.
CT: conventional tillage;
ZT–R: zero-tillage without residue retention
ZT+R: zero-tillage with residue retention.
Data source: Authors’ compilation.

Figure: estimated global warming potential of CT- and ZT-based wheat production in
North-West India
CT: conventional tillage;
ZT: zero-tillage
Data source: Sapkota et al. (2014).

Table: Summary of meta-analysis results for Indo-Gangetic Plains.

Table: Comparison of rates of increase of SOC stock under zero tillage (ZT) compared to
conventional tillage (CT) as influenced by sampling method:
equal soil depth versus “equivalent soil mass” (ESM).
Soil was a Typic Haplaquept sandy clay loam in the Indian Sub-Himalayas under rice–
wheat cropping with conventional tillage to 15 cm and zero tillage applied for 9 years.
Adapted from Bhattacharyya et al. (2013).

 Agriculture has a significant role to play in mitigating climate change
 Agriculture is cost competitive with adaptation and mitigation methods as compared to
other sectors
 Adaptation and mitigation methods improves sustainability in agriculture
 Implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism to reduce the emission of GHG.
 An increment of the forestry and cultivated areas (sequestration) and better
management of forests and soil (preservation of the capital of carbon)
 Awareness creation on climate change and adaptation strategies
CONCLUSION

Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture

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