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A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development
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Abstract
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Appendix
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Impact of gross domestic product (gdp) on economic development

A pilot study to describe the importance of the GDP of the country and its importance with respect to the economic well being of the proletarians.

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Impact of gross domestic product (gdp) on economic development

  1. 1. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 1 of 41 IMPACT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Submitted To: Research Supervisor : Mr. Nasir Shamsi Submitted By: Name of Student : Mohammad Asif Khan Seat No. : 1332025 Enrolment No. : MAS/PAD/EP-24672/2013 Class : PGDPA Section : “B” Submission Date:
  2. 2. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 2 of 41 Dated : May 21, 2014 Table of Contents  Abstract  Introduction  Background of the study  Problem Statement  Significance of Study  Research Methodology  Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  Measuring Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Country  The Price Level and GDP  Unemployment and GDP  Economic Development and GDP  Development Indicators  Conclusion & Recommendations  Data Collection & References  Appendix
  3. 3. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 3 of 41 About the Author The author of this research study is the student of Post Graduate Diploma in Public Administration (PGDAP-2013-14) and this research has been carry out to fulfill the requirement of the PGDPA degree program. The aim of the research is to provide complete understanding about the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an economic indicator. First it has been describe that how the GDP of a country has been calculated and what factors are the part of the GDP and how the GDP explains the economic growth of a country. Furthermore, it has been try to find out the economic indicators other than the GDP which provides more effective understanding of the economic well being.
  4. 4. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 4 of 41 Abstract Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the value of aggregate production in a country during a given period (usually a year). The concept of GDP is based on the distinction between stocks and flows and the circular flow of expenditure and income. Capital is the key macroeconomic stock, and investment is the flow that increases the stock of capital. Wealth is also a stock, and saving-income minus consumption expenditure-increases the stock wealth. The circular flow of income and expenditure arises from the expenditures of households, firms, governments, and the rest of the world and the payment of factors incomes by firms. Aggregate expenditure on goods and services equals to aggregate income. The value of aggregate production-GDP-is equal to aggregate expenditure or aggregate income in an economy. Because aggregate expenditure, aggregate income, and the value of aggregate production are equal, national income accountants can measure the GDP by using one of two approaches:  The Expenditure Approach  The Factor Incomes Approach Inflation is measured by the rate of change of the GDP deflator. GDP deflator gives an upward biased measure of inflation because some goods disappear and new goods become available, and the quality of goods and services change overtime. Real GDP is not a perfect measure of either aggregate production or economic welfare. It excludes quality improvements, household production, and the underground economy, environmental damage, the contribution to economic welfare of health and life expectancy leisure time, and political freedom and social justice. But the growth rate of real GDP gives a good indication of the phases of the business cycle. The change in real GDP also reflects the changes in the unemployment rate in an economy. This pilot study provides a concrete understanding of the topic and base for the further research to intricate the topic.
  5. 5. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 5 of 41 Introduction Back Ground of the Study: Economic development involves growth in the economic wealth of an economy. Government policy in many countries generally aims for continuous and sustained economic growth, so that their economies expand and become more developed. Many less developed countries lack the capital required to invest in modern infrastructure such as road and power networks, and they also lack the consumer demand required to stimulate investments in an industrial base and service sector. Instead, less developed countries tend to depend heavily on agriculture for employment and incomes. It is the one of the reason of slow economic growth in these countries. Problem Statement: Is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) the only and the authentic economic indicator to measure the economic development of a country? And the difference between the less developed and developed economies are their GDP growth or the government should consider other economic indicators for the sustainable economic growth and development? Significance of Study: The study reveals that how the economic growth of the countries can be measured. And, how the other economic indicator describes the social well-being of the people of the country. Research Methodology: The Literature review method has been used to define the hypothesis. Which includes the review of books, previous research work on the same topic or related to the topic and references from the authentic web sites? We try to explore the actual facts regarding economic development or the real factors which contributes in the development of an economy. For the same, we try to get the answers of the questions (See Appendix).
  6. 6. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 6 of 41 Qualitative Method: The data collected for this research is secondary in nature. It is collected with the idea to add personal in-depth introspective opinions and meaningful to the study. Hypothesis: Ho: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the authentic economic indicator to measure the economic well being of the country in addition to people of the country. HĄ: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is not the authentic economic indicator to measure the economic well being of the country in addition to people of the country. What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the value of aggregate or total production of goods and services in a country during a given time period- usually one year. How it is calculated? Two fundamental concepts from the foundation on which GDP measurements are based:  The distinction between stocks and flows,  The equality of income, expenditure, and the value of production.
  7. 7. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 7 of 41 Stock and Flows: To keep track of our personal economic transactions and the economic transactions of a country, we distinguish between stocks and flows. Stock: A stock is a quantity that exists at a point in time. The water in a bathtub is a stock. So are the numbers of the current deposits (CDs) that are you own and the amount of money in your savings accounts. Flow: A flow is a quantity per unit of time. The water that is running from an open faucet into a bathtub is a flow. So are the number of current deposits (CDs) that you buy during a month and the amount of income that you earn during a month. GDP has another flow, it is the value of the goods and services produced in a country during a given time period usually a year. Capital and Investment: Capital: The key macroeconomic stock is Capital. Capital is the plant, equipments, buildings, and inventories of raw materials and semi finished goods and services. The amount of capital in the economy is crucial factors that influence GDP. Two macroeconomic flows changes the stock of capital: Investments and depreciations. Investment: Investment is the purchase of new plant, equipment, and buildings and the additions to inventories. Investment increases the stock of capital. Depreciation: Deprecation is the decrease in the stock of capital that results from wear and tear and the passage of time. Another name for depreciation is capital consumption.
  8. 8. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 8 of 41 The total amount spent on adding to the stock of capital and on replacing depreciated capital is called Gross Investment. The amount spent an adding to the stock of capital is called Net Investment equals Gross Investment minus Depreciation. Net investment = Gross Investment - Depreciation Wealth and Saving: Wealth: Another macroeconomic stock is wealth, which is the value of all the things that people own. What people own, a stock, is related to what they earn a flow. People earn an income, which is the amount they receive during a given time period from supplying the services of factors of production. Income can be either consumed or saved. Consumption Expenditure is the amount spent on consumption goods and services. Saving: Saving is the amount of income remaining after meeting consumption expenditures. Saving adds to wealth and dissaving (negative saving) decreases wealth. National wealth and national saving work just like personal savings. The wealth of a nation at the start of a year equals its wealth at the start of the previous year plus its saving during the year. Its saving equals its income minus its consumption expenditure. Nation’s saving = Income - Consumption Expenditure The Equality of Income, Expenditure and Value of Production: The circular flow of income and expenditure helps us to see the economy as whole income equals to expenditure and also equals the value of production. To keep track of the different types of flows that make up the circular flow of income and expenditure, they are color-coded.
  9. 9. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 9 of 41 Government Debt Repayment Or Borrowing Governments Foreign Borrowing and Lending Rest of The World 1. The red flows are expenditures on goods and services, 2. The blue is income, and 3. The green flows are financial transfers. In the circular flow of income and expenditure, households receive incomes (Y) from firms (blue flows) and make consumption expenditures (C), firms make investment (I), governments purchase goods and services (G), the rest of the world purchase net exports (NX) – (red flows). Aggregate income (blue flow) equals aggregate expenditure (red flows). Households’ savings (S) and net taxes (NT) leak from the circular flow. Firms borrow to finance their investment expenditures, and governments and the rest of the world borrow to finance their deficits or lend their surpluses (green flows). The Circular Flow of Income and Expenditure in the Economy Diagram: S Hous ehold’s Savings NT C G Y I NX= X-M Y I C Y G NX=X-M Factor Markets Goods Market Financial Markets Firms Households
  10. 10. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 10 of 41 Firm’s Borrowing In the circular flow of income and expenditure consists of four sectors:  Households,  Firms,  Governments and  Rest of the world. It has been three aggregate markets:  Factors Markets,  Goods and Services Markets, and  Financial Markets. Household and Firms: Households sell and firms buy the services of labor, capital, land and entrepreneurship in factor markets. For these factors services, firms pay income to households: wages for labor services, interest for the use of capital, rent for the use of land, and profits for entrepreneurship. Firm’s retained earnings –profits that are not distributed to households-are also part of the household sector’s income. The total income received by all households in payment for the services of factors of production is aggregate income. In diagram aggregate income denote by ‘Y”. Firms sell and households buy consumer goods and services in the markets. The aggregate payment that households make for these goods and services is consumption expenditure. In circular flow ‘C’ represents the consumption expenditure. Firms buy and sell new capital equipment in the goods market. The purchase of new plant, equipment, and buildings and the additions to inventories are investment. The circular flow diagram shows investment by the red dots labeled ‘I’. Notice that in the figure, investment flows from firms through the goods markets and back to firms.
  11. 11. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 11 of 41 Some firms produce capital goods, and other firms buy them (and firms ‘buy’ inventories form themselves). Firms finance their investment by borrowing from households in financial markets. Household’s saving flows into financial markets and firm’s borrowing flows out of financial markets. The circular flow diagram shows these flows by the green dots labeled “Households’ saving” or ‘S’ and “firms borrowing. These flows are neither income nor expenditure. Income is a payment for the services of factor of production, and expenditure is a payment for goods or services. Governments: Governments buy goods and services, called government purchases, from firms. In the circular flow diagram, these government purchases are shown as the red flow ‘G’. Governments use taxes to pay for their purchases. In diagram, green dots labeled ‘NT’ shows taxes as net taxes. Net taxes are equal to taxes paid to governments minus transfer payments received from governments. Net Taxes = Total Taxes Received by the Governments – Transfer Payment paid by Governments Transfer payments are cash transfers payments received from governments. Transfer payments are cash transfer payments are cash transfers from governments to households and firms such as social benefits, society developments, unemployment and other subsidies. When government purchases ‘G’ exceed net taxes ‘NT’, the government sector has a budget deficit, which is finance by borrowing in financial markets. This borrowing is shown by the green dots labeled “Government Borrowing”. Rest of World Sector: Firms export goods and services to the rest of the world and import goods and services from the rest of the world. The value of exports minus the values of imports is called net exports. It is the red flow ‘NX’. Net Export = Exports - Import If value of exports exceeds the value of imports, net exports are positive and flow from the rest of the world to firms. But if the value of
  12. 12. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 12 of 41 exports is less than the value of imports, net exports are negative and flow from firms to the rest of the world. When net exports are positive, the rest of the world either borrows from the domestic economy or sells domestic assets that it has bought previously. These transactions take place in financial markets and they are shown by the green place in financial markets and they are shown by the green flow labeled “Foreign Borrowing”. When net exports are negative, the domestic economy either borrows from the rest of the world or sells foreign assets that it had previously acquired. Again, these transactions take place in the figure; we would reserve the directions of the flows of net exports and foreign borrowing. Measuring Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic product (GDP) is the value of aggregate production in a country during a year. Production can be valued in two ways: 1. By what buyers pay for it, 2. By what it costs producers to make it. From the view-point of buyers, goods are worth the prices paid for them. It will be a real nuisance if these two values are different because we will then have two different measures of GDP. But if these two values are always equal, we will have a unique concept of GDP regardless of which one we use. Fortunately, the two concepts of value do give the same answer. Let’s see, why it’s happen? Expenditure Equals Income: The total amount that buyers pay for the goods and services produced is aggregate expenditure. Let’s analyze the aggregate expenditure in circular flow diagram. The expenditure on goods and services are shown by the red flows. Firm’s revenues from the sale of goods and services equal consumption expenditure (C) plus investment (I) plus government purchases of goods and services (G) plus net exports (NX). The sum of these four flows in the economy equal to aggregate expenditure on goods and services.
  13. 13. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 13 of 41 The total amount it costs producers to make goods and services is equal to the incomes paid for factor services. This amount is shown is circular flow by the blue. The sum of the red flows equals the blue flow. The reason is that everything a firm receives from the sale of its output is paid out as incomes to the owners of the factors of production that it employs. That is, Y = C + I + G + NX Or Aggregate income (Y) equals to (=) Aggregate expenditure (C + I + G + NX) The buyers of aggregate production pay an amount equal to aggregate expenditure, and the sellers of aggregate production pay on amount equal to aggregate income, these two methods of valuing aggregate production, GDP, equals aggregate expenditure or aggregate income. The circular flow income and expenditure is the foundation for measuring GDP. At the same time, it is foundation for understanding how the finance investment flows and translate into growing capital stock. How investment is financed in The Economy: Investment is financed by national saving and by borrowing from the rest of the world. National Savings equal household saving plus government savings. Borrowing from the rest of the world equals the value of imports minus the value of experts (or the negative of net exports). Let’s analyze how these sources of funds combine to finance investment. National Savings: The flows into and out of households in circular flow diagram shows, aggregate income (Y) flows in, and consumption expenditure (C), saving (S), and net taxes (NT) flow out. Everything received by households is either spent on consumption goods and services, saved, or paid in net taxes, so: Y = C + S + NT And household saving is: S = (Y – NT) – C
  14. 14. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 14 of 41 Aggregate income minus net taxes (Y – NT) is called disposable income, so household saving equals disposable income minus consumption expenditure. Government saving equals net taxes minus government purchases, (NT – G), which is the government budget surplus. If net taxes exceed government purchases that is (NT – G) is positive, the government has a budget surplus and this surplus is added to household saving as an additional source of finance for investment. But if net taxes are less than government purchases, this is, if (NT – G) is negative, the government has a budget deficit and has to finance the government deficit. National Savings equals household savings plus government savings: National Savings = S + (NT – G) But because household savings equal disposable income minus consumption expenditure: National Savings = (Y – NT) – C + (NT – G) Now we can say that net taxes cancel in the above equation. Household pay then and government’s receive them, so when we add household saving and government saving together, they wash out and we are left with: National Savings = Y – C – G National Savings equals aggregate income (GDP) minus consumption expenditure minus government purchases. Borrowing From The Rest Of The World: If rest of the world spends more on our goods and services than we spend on theirs, they must borrow to pay the difference. That is, if the value of exports (EX) exceeds the value of imports (IM), then we can lend to the rest of the world an amount equal to (EX – IM). In this situation, part of national saving flows to the rest of the world and is not available to finance investment.
  15. 15. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 15 of 41 Conversely, if we spend more on foreign goods and services than the rest of the world spends on our, we must borrow from the rest of the world to pay the difference. That is, if the value of imports (IM) exceeds the value of exports (EX), then we must borrow from the rest of the world an amount equal to (IM – EX). In this case, part of the rest of the world’s saving flows into the economy and becomes available to finance investment. Investment Financing: The total funds available to finance investment equals national saving, S + (NT – G), plus borrowing from the rest of the world, (IM – EX). This amount equals investment. That is, I = S + (NT – G) + (IM – EX) That is, investment (I) equals household saving (S) plus government saving (NT – G) plus borrowing from the rest of the world (IM – EX). Injection And Leakages: The circular flow of income and expenditure as a system of tubes with liquid flowing through them. The flow of factor incomes equals the flow of expenditures. But some liquid leaks from the circular flow. The leakages from the circular flow are saving, net taxes, and imports. For the flows to not run dry there must also be some injections into circular flow. The injections are investment, government purchases of goods and services, and exports. I = S + (NT – G) + (IM – EX) Add government purchases (G) and export (EX) to both sides of this equation and we get: = INJECTIONS LEAKAGES The left side is injections into the circular flow of income and expenditure, and the right side is leakages from the circular flow. I + G + EX S + NT + IM
  16. 16. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 16 of 41 Now, we analyze that how Economic Staticians of country use the circular flow of income and expenditure to measure GDP. Measuring The GDP of Country To measure the GDP of a country, economic statician uses two approaches:  Expenditure Approach  Factor Approach The Expenditure Approach: The expenditure approach measures GDP by collecting data on consumption expenditure (C), investment (I), government purchases of goods and services (G), and net exports (NX). It can be explain in tabular form: GDP: The Expenditure Approach: Item Symbol Amount (In Billions) Percentage of GDP  Personal Consumption Expenditure  Gross Private Domestic Investment  Government Purchases of Goods and Services  Net Exports of Goods and Services C I G NX Xxx xxx xxx xxx X % x % x % x % Gross Domestic Product Y XXX X % The amounts can be shown in billions. The name of the item used in the National Income appears in first column, and symbol we have used in our GDP equations appears in the next column. To measure GDP using the expenditure approach, we add together personal consumption expenditures (C), gross private domestic investment
  17. 17. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 17 of 41 (I), government purchases of goods and services (G), and net exports of goods and services (NX). Personal Consumption Expenditures: Personal consumption expenditures are the expenditures by households on goods and services produced in the rest of the world. They include all goods and services but do not include the purchase of new residential houses, which is counted as part of investment. Gross Private Domestic Investment: Gross private domestic investment is expenditure on capital equipment and buildings by firms and expenditure on new residential houses by households. It also includes the change in firms’ inventories. Government Purchase of Goods and Services: Government purchases of goods and services are the purchases of goods and services by all levels of governments. This item of expenditure includes the cost of providing national defense, law and order, street lighting, garbage collection, and so on. It does not include transfer payments. Such payments do not represent purchases of goods and services but rather transfers of funds from government to households. Net exports of goods and services are the value of exports minus the value of imports. Net Exports = Net Exports- Net Imports Expenditures Not In GDP: Aggregate expenditure, which equals GDP, does not include all the things that people and businesses buy. To distinguish total expenditure on GDP from other items of spending, we call the expenditure included in GDP final expenditure. Spending that is not part of final expenditure and not part of GDP include the purchases of:  Intermediate Goods and Services  Use Goods,  Financial Assets
  18. 18. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 18 of 41 Intermediate Goods and Services: These are the goods and services that firms buy from each other and use as inputs in the goods and services that they eventually sell to final users. To count the expenditure in intermediate goods and services as well as the expenditure on the final good involves counting the same thing twice-called double counting. Some goods are sometimes intermediate goods and sometimes final goods. Whether a good is intermediate or final depends on what it is used for, not on what it is. Expenditure on Used Goods is not a part of GDP because these goods were counted as a part of GDP in the period in which they were produced and in which they were produced and in which they were new goods. Firms often sell financial assets such as bonds and stocks to finance purchases of newly produced capital goods. The expenditure on newly produced capital goods is part of GDP, but the expenditure on financial securities is not. GDP includes the amount spent on new capital, not the amount spent on pieces of paper. Now we try to understand the other way of measuring GDP of a country. The Factor Incomes Approach: The factor incomes approach measures GDP by adding together all the incomes paid by firms to households for the services of the factors of production they hire--wages for Labor, interest of capital, rent for land and profits paid for entrepreneurship. Let’s elaborate how the factor incomes approach works. The National Income divides factor incomes into five categories: 1. Compensation of Employees 2. Net Interest
  19. 19. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 19 of 41 3. Rental Income 4. Corporate Profits 5. Proprietors’ Income GDP: The Factor Incomes Approach: Item Amount (in Billions) Percentage of GDP  Compensation of Employees  Rental Income  Corporate Profits  Net Interest  Proprietors’ Income  Indirect Taxes (Less: Subsidies)  Capital Consumption (Less: Depreciation) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx x% x% x% x% x% x% x% Gross Domestic Product XXX X% Compensation of Employees: Consumption of employees is the total payments by firms for labor services. This item includes the net wages and salaries (called “take- home pay”) that workers receive each week or month plus taxes with held on earnings plus fringe benefits such as social benefits and pension fund contributions. Net Interest: Net interest is the total interest payments received by households on loans made by them minus the interest payments made by households on their own borrowing. This item includes, on the plus side, payments of interest by firms to households on bonds and, on the minus side, households’ interest payments on the outstanding balances on their credit cards. Rental Income:
  20. 20. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 20 of 41 Rental income is the payment for the use of land and rental inputs. It includes payments for rental housing and imputed rent for owner- occupied housing. (Imputed rent is an estimate of what homeowners would pay to rent the housing they own and use themselves. By including income accounts, we measure the total value of housing service, whether they are owned or rental.) Corporate Profits: Corporate profits are the profits made by corporations. Some of these profits are paid to household in the form of dividends, and some are retained by corporations as undistributed profits. Proprietors’ Income: Proprietors’ income is a mixture of the elements that we have just reviewed. The proprietor of an owner-operated business supplies labor, capital and perhaps land and buildings to the business. It is difficult to split the income earned by an owner-operator into compensation for labor, payment for the use of capital, rent payments for the use of land or buildings and profit, so the national income accounts lump all these separate incomes into a single category. The sum of these five components of factor incomes is called net domestic income at factor cost. It is not GDP. Two further adjustments are needed to get to GDP, one from factor cost to market price and another from net to gross. Factor Cost To Market Price: When we add up all the final expenditures on goods and services, we arrive at a total called domestic product at market price. These expenditures are valued at the market prices that people pay for the various goods and services. Another way of valuing goods and services is at factor cost. Factor cost is the value of a good or service measured by cost. Factor cost is the value of a good or service measured by adding together the costs of all the factors of production used to produce it. If the only economic transaction is between households and firms – if there are no government taxes or subsidies – the market price and factor cost
  21. 21. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 21 of 41 values would be same. But the presence of indirect taxes and subsidies makes these two methods of valuation differ. An indirect tax is a tax paid by consumers when they buy goods and services. (In contrast, a direct tax is tax on income.) State sales tax and taxes on products (gasoline, tobacco, etc.) are indirect taxes. Because of indirect taxes, consumers pay more for some goods and services then the factor cost. A subsidiary is a payment by the government to producer. Payments made to gain growers and dairy farmers are subsidies. Because of subsidies, consumers pay less for same goods and services than producers receive. The market price is less than the factor cost. To use the factor incomes approach to measure GDP, we must add indirect taxes to total factor incomes and subtract subsidies. Making this adjustment brings us are step closer to GDP, but it does not quite get us there. To achieve the GDP, we have to make another adjustment. Net Domestic Product To Gross Domestic Product: If we total all the factor incomes and then add indirect taxes and subtract subsidies, we arrive at net domestic product at market price. What do the words Gross and Net mean? The word Gross means before subtracting depreciation - the decrease in the value of the capital stock that results from wear and tear and the passage of time. Similarly, the word Net means after subtracting depreciation. A component of aggregate expenditure is gross investment – the purchase of new capital and the replacement of depreciated capital. So when we total all the expenditures, we arrive at a number that includes that amount of depreciation, a gross measure. A component of aggregate factor income is the net profit of business -profit after subtracting the deprecation of capital. So, when we total all the factor incomes, we arrive at a number that excludes depreciation, a net measure.
  22. 22. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 22 of 41 The above given table summarizes these calculations and explains how the factor income leads to the same estimate of GDP as the expenditure approach. The Price Level And GDP The price level is the average level of prices of products measured by a price index. To construct a price index, we take a basket of goods and services and calculate its value in the current period. The price index is the value of the basket in the current period expressed as a percentage of the value of the same basket in the base period. This change of prices is called inflation. The two main price indexes that are used to measure the price level are:  The Consumer Price index  The GDP Deflator The Consumer Price Index (CPI): We will discuss the Consumer Price index in brief. The consumer price index can be defined as follows: A consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Or A measure of changes in the purchasing-power of a currency and the rate of inflation. The consumer price index expresses the current prices of a basket of goods and services in terms of the prices during the same period in a previous year, to show effect of inflation on purchasing power. It is one of the best known lagging indicators. Or The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care.
  23. 23. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 23 of 41 The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living. The CPI is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically. Sub- indexes and sub-sub-indexes are computed for different categories and sub- categories of goods and services, being combined to produce the overall index with weights reflecting their shares in the total of the consumer expenditures covered by the index. It is one of several price indices calculated by most national statistical agencies. The annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a measure of inflation. A CPI can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effect of inflation) the real value of wages, salaries, pensions, for regulating prices and for deflating monetary magnitudes to show changes in real values. In most countries, the CPI is, along with the population census and the National Income and Product Accounts, one of the most closely watched national economic statistics. What is 'Weighted Average'? Weighted average is an average in which each quantity to be averaged is assigned a weight. These weightings determine the relative importance of each quantity on the average. Weightings are the equivalent of having that many like items with the same value involved in the average. What are 'Consumer Goods'? Consumer goods are products that are purchased for consumption by the average consumer. Alternatively called final goods, consumer goods are the end result of production and manufacturing and are what a consumer will see on the store shelf. Clothing, food, automobiles and jewelry are all examples of consumer goods. Basic materials such as copper are not considered consumer goods because they must be transformed into usable products. What is a 'Price Change'? A price change is the difference in the cost of an asset or security from one period to another. While it can be computed for any length of time, the most commonly cited price change in the financial media is the "daily price change", which is the change in the price of a stock or
  24. 24. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 24 of 41 security from the previous trading day's close to the current day's close. Price change over a period of time such as year-to-date or past 12 months are also commonly used time periods, and is generally computed as a percentage change. What is a Basket Of Goods? A relatively fixed set of consumer products and services valued and used on an annual basis to track inflation in a specific market or country. The goods in the basket are often adjusted periodically to account for changes in consumer habits the basket of goods is used primarily to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI). What is Inflation? Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. Central banks attempt to limit inflation, and avoid deflation, in order to keep the economy running smoothly. What is Annual basis Annual Basis? The return earned by an investment over the course of a year. Projections containing the phrase "on an annual basis" have usually used less than a year's worth of data to project a full year's worth of returns. For example, an investment might have returned 1.5% in one month. By multiplying this return by 12, an 18% annual basis is the result. The shorter the period of data used to determine an annual return, the less accurate that projection is likely to be. Statements about what an investment will return on an annual basis are always estimates. What is Cost of Living? The amount of money needed to sustain a certain level of living, including basic expenses such as housing, food, taxes, and healthcare. Cost of living is often used when comparing how expensive it is to live in one city versus another. Calculating the CPI for a single item:
  25. 25. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 25 of 41 Nominal GDP CPI = Updated Cost X 100 Base Period Cost The GDP Deflator: The GDP Deflator measures the average level of price of all the goods and services that are included in GDP. To calculate the GDP deflator, we use the formula: GDP Deflator = Nominal GDP X 100 Real GDP In this formula, nominal GDP is GDP valued in the current year’s price. Real GDP in a base year scaled up by the growth rate of real GDP since the base year. With an estimate of real GDP, we can calculate GDP deflator by dividing with nominal GDP. The answer will tell us that either the prices of goods has been increased or decreased, with respect to the base year prices. Diagram: Real GDP Real GDP
  26. 26. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 26 of 41 In the base year, nominal GDP equals real GDP and the GDP deflator is 100. In current year the real GDP has been increased due to growing production and rising prices. The red balloon for base year shows real GDP in that year. The green balloon shows nominal GDP in current year. The red balloon for the current year shows real GDP for the current year. To see the real GDP in current year, we deflate nominal GDP using the GDP deflator. Unemployment And GDP Unemployment occurs when employed people losing or leaving their jobs (job losers and job leavers) and from people entering the labor force (entrants and reentrants). Labor Market Flows: Job Losers, Job leavers, And Retires Entrants Reentrants Employed Unemployed Not in Labor Force
  27. 27. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 27 of 41 The Anatomy Of Unemployment: People become unemployed if they: 1. Lose their jobs 2. Leave their jobs 3. Enter or reenter the labor force People end a spell of unemployment: 1. Are Hired or recalled 2. Withdraw from the labor force Let’s explore how much unemployment arises from the three different ways in which people can become unemployed. The labor market flow shows unemployment by reason for becoming unemployed. Job losers are the biggest source of unemployment. Entrants and reentrants also are a large component of the unemployed and their numbers fluctuates mildly. Job leavers are the smallest and most stable source of unemployment. Types Of Unemployment: Unemployment is classified into three types that are based on its causes. These are:  Frictional  Structural  Cyclical First two types of unemployment belong to normal labor turnover or due to technological change or advancement. The third type of unemployment directly belongs to country’s economic cycle. Let’s analyze the same. Cyclical Unemployment: Cyclical unemployment is the fluctuating unemployment that coincides with economic / business cycle. Cyclical unemployment is a repeating short-
  28. 28. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 28 of 41 term problem. The amount of cyclical unemployment increases during a recession and decreases during and expansion. Unemployment And Real GDP: a) Real GDP: 9 Real GDP (Amount in Billions) Real GDP Potential GDP 0 10 Time Period (Number of years) b) Unemployment Rate: 10 Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (% of Labor Force) Natural of Employment 0 10 Time Period (Number of Years)
  29. 29. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 29 of 41 The diagrams illustrate the cyclical unemployment in an economy.  Part (a) shows the fluctuations of Real GDP around “Potential GDP”.  Part (b) shows fluctuations in unemployment rate around a line labeled “Natural Rate of Unemployment”. The Natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate when there is no cyclical unemployment or equivalently, when all the unemployment is frictional and structural. The divergence of the unemployment rate from the natural rate is cyclical unemployment. In the figures the unemployment rate fluctuates around the natural rate of unemployment, just as real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP. When the unemployment rate equals the natural rate of unemployment, real GDP is greater than potential GDP. And when the unemployment rate is greater than natural rate of unemployment, real GDP is less than potential GDP. It has been clearly seen that the unemployment rate fluctuates with the real GDP. When real GDP decreases the unemployment rate automatically increases, and when the real GDP increases the unemployment rate decreases. As the real GDP shows the performance of an economy, so the increase in real GDP creates more employment opportunities in the labor market. On the other hand the decrease in real GDP increases the unemployment in the economy. Economic Development And GDP Economic Development involves growth in the economic wealth (can be measure through GDP) of an economy. Government policy in many countries generally aims for continuous and sustained economic growth, so that their national economics expand and become more developed. A less developed economy has a low level of economic development. Almost ninety percent (90%) of the world population lives in less developed economies. Development objectives therefore tend to include producing more necessities (goods) as food, shelter and health-care, and making sure they reach more people in need raising standards of living and expanding economic and social choices. However, different countries and even different regions with in the same countries in the world today are at very different stages of economic development. The countries with low GDP are considered less developed and the countries with high GDP are supposed to be developed.
  30. 30. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 30 of 41 Developed Economies: A developed economy is generally thought of as having large modern farms, many firms of different sizes producing and selling a variety of goods and services, a well-developed road and rail network, modern communication systems, stable government and a relatively healthy, wealthy and educated population. Developed economies are also sometimes called industrialized nations, but this is despite the great majority of their output, income and employment now being created by their service sectors rather than manufacturing industries. However, according to the United Nations there is no general rule for designating regions or countries as developed or developing, but the standard of living of the people of the countries. Developing Economies: A less developed economy has a low level of economic development. Farming methods are poor, sometimes providing scarley enough food for a rapidly growing population to eat. There are very few firms producing and selling foods and services. Road, rail and communication networks are underdeveloped and most people are poor. They live in poor housing conditions, receive little or no education, do not expect to live to old age may even lack access to clean water to live to old age may even lack access to clean water. Many countries in Africa are considered less developed. Less developed countries (LDC’s) are also called developing economies, suggesting that overtime they are becoming a little more prosperous, that their industrial structure is developing and fewer people are living in extreme poverty. However, not all less developed countries are developing. Some are in fact experiencing negative economic growth, meaning that incomes are falling and levels of poverty, malnutrition and disease are rising. For example between 1995 and 2004 the real GDP of Zimbabwe fell by forty percent (40%). In contrast, some countries are developing rapidly, such as same Eastern Europe countries such as Armenia, Georgia, but they have yet to display the full range of characteristics of modern developed economies. These are often grouped under the headings emerging economies or newly industrialized countries. Reasons For Low Economic Development (GDP):
  31. 31. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 31 of 41 There are number of reasons suggested for why some economies have remained less developed than others. An Over-Dependence On Agriculture To Provide Jobs And Incomes: More people in less developed economies work in farming than in industry and services compared to developed nations. Many produce only enough food for themselves and their families, to live on and very little surplus they can sell to earn money. In some areas there has been over farming which means the land is no longer any good for growing corps. Failures of rains to arrive in some areas due to global climate change have also meant crops can no longer be grown for people to survive. It is the main reason for low economic growth or low GDP of different countries. Domination Of International Trade By Developed Nations: It is argued that rich nations have exploited many poorer nations by buying up their natural resources and the food crops they produce at very low prices, and then using these resources to produces goods and services which they export back to the same less developed countries at much higher prices. Further, many rich countries have protected their own mining and agricultural industries by paying them subsidies. These subsidies have increased the global supply of these products and forced down world prices. Producers in less developed countries have not been able to complete and as a result, they lost sales, incomes and jobs. Lack of Capital: While incomes remain low in many less developed countries, they have little can invest in building factories and the purchase of machinery and equipment to develop an industrial base. Without these capital goods less developed countries will not be able to produce more of the goods and services they need and which they could also export to earn money from overseas trade. Insufficient Investment in Education, Skills and Healthcare: Many people in many less developed countries do not have access to basic education, training and healthcare which can help them become
  32. 32. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 32 of 41 healthier, more productive and more innovative workers. Better education about family planning may also help to reduce birth rates and improve living standards. Low Levels of Investment In Infrastructure: Road, rail and communication networks are often poor in many less developed countries. This poor infrastructure makes travel and access and the sharing of information to the rural areas very difficult. Lack Of Efficient Production And Distribution For Goods And Services: Many less developed countries lack industries and services. If incomes are low there is little incentive for businesses to setup different shops and retail centers. If transport is difficult outside of cities then people from rural areas cannot travel to cities to shops, and it is also difficult to take goods and services to rural communities. If workers are uneducated and lack skills then industry may be unable to employ them. High Population Growth: Many underdeveloped countries have rapidly expanding populations because birth rates remain high. This means available goods and services have to be shared among more and more people overtime. Other Factors: Unstable and corrupt governments, and wars with neighboring countries or between different tribes or religious groups, have often blighted the development of some less developed countries. Money that could have been used to invest in economic development has in some cases been misused by corrupt officials or squandered on buying arms and fighting wars. Development Indicators And GDP The most commonly used indicators of development and living standards in different regions and countries in the world. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita:
  33. 33. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 33 of 41 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita or average income per person is the most commonly used comparative measure of development. Developed countries tend to have relatively high GDP per capita. In 2005, Bermuda had the highest GDP per capita of US $ 69,900. However, GDP is a narrow measure of economic development or welfare in a country. For example, it does not take account of what people can buy with their incomes, access to health and education, or other non- economic aspects such as the amount of political and cultural freedom people have, the quality of their environment, or level of security against crime and violence. Calculating average GDP of persons also tells us nothing about how incomes are distributed between populations. For example, consider China has a rapid economic growth and it had increased the number of millionaires in the country almost 250,000 by 2006, but still around 47% percent of the Chinese population had to survive on less than $2/= per day, with almost 17 percent on less than $ 1 per day. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has a reasonably high income per head, around $13,100/= in 2005, but most the wealth in the country is held by less than 3 percent of the population. But even within highly developed countries such as the US there are still big disparities rich and poor people. For example, in 2005 around 9 percent of us households had an annual income of $ 10,000 or less compared to 6 percent of households with $ 150,000 or more. Other countries such as Equatorial Guinea, Brunei or Triniland and Tobago also have relatively high average incomes but are generally not considered developed because their economies depend so much on the production of oil. These countries also have very unequal distribution of incomes. For example, in 2005 average income in Trinidad and Tobago was $16,800/= but 39% (percent) of the population lived on less than $2/= per r day. Economic Indicators Other Than GDP:
  34. 34. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 34 of 41 Population On Less Than $1 Per Day: A better measure of level of poverty in a country is the proportion of people living on very low income, usually $1 or $2 per day. In 2002, around 19 percent of the population of developing economies was estimated to be living on less than $1 per day. However, even in developed regions some 6 percent of the population in 2005 still lived in slum condition. Life Expectancy At Birth: People in developed countries tend to live longer than people in less developed countries because they tend to have better standards of living access to good food and healthcare. Life expectancy from birth is therefore a good measure of economic development in a country or region. On average, a bay born in the developed countries in 2005 could expect to live to seventy five (75) years of age, while a baby born in less developed world expect could expect to live around Sixty Six (66) years. However, in some of the poorest countries in Africa, average life expectancy from birth is less than forty two (42) years. Other health-related indicators of economic development include baby and mother mortality rates, the proportion of children and adults receiving inoculations against diseases, and death rates for various diseases including tuberculosis and HIV / AIDS. Adult Literacy Rate: A good measure of education provision in an economy is the proportion of the adult population that is able to read and write. For example, most adults can read and write in developed countries such as the US, Canada and those in Europe. In contrast, in 2004 only around 1 in 3
  35. 35. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 35 of 41 adult living in developing countries such as Chad, Equatorial, Guinea, Niger and Sierra Leone could read and write. Other education-related indicators include school and college enrolment and completion rates among children and young people. Access To Safe Water Supplies And Sanitation: Clean water is a necessity and safe, clean sanitation can help stop the spread of diseases. These are generally available services to most people living and working in developed countries. Yet, only around half of all people in developing regions had access to good sanitation in 2004, and just 80% percent to a safe and sustainable water source. Access to improved is particularly poor in rural areas in developing countries with only thirty three percent (33%) of rural population having access compared to seventy three percent (73%) living in the cities and urban areas. Ownership Consumer Goods: low incomes and the lack of an efficient production and distribution system of goods and services in many less developed economies means ownership of consumers goods such as washing machines, cars, telephones and personal computer is low as compared to many developed countries. Proportion Of Workers In Agriculture Compared To Industry Or Services: As compare to the developed countries, most people are working in agriculture sector. Human Development Index: To make international comparisons of economic development a little easier the United Nations compiles the human development Index (HDI). It combines a number of development indicators into one index with a maximum possible value of 1. Changes in the index over time
  36. 36. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 36 of 41 can therefore show whether a country has improved or reduced the economic well-being of its people in terms of their:  Standard of Living, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.  Access to education and knowledge, measured by the adult literacy rate and school and college enrolment rates.  Health, Diet and Life Style, measured by life expectancy at birth. The World Human Development Index Values: Countries can be ranked by their HDI. High: 0.800 > 1.00 Medium: 0.500 > 0.799 Low: 0.300 > 0.499 In 2004, Norway had the highest HDI of 0.965 and Nigeria in Africa the lowest at just 0.311. Countries with an HDI equal to or greater than 0.800 are generally thought to have high human development, while those with an index value less than 0.500 are considered to have low human development. The regions and countries of the world classified as developed, developing and less developed according to their HDI value. Human Poverty Index (HPI) by United Nations (UN): The UN also used a Human Poverty Index (HPI) to rank developing countries and developed countries. The indices for developing countries (HPI-1) and developed countries (HPI-2) each combine a number of measures for economic hardship. HPI-1 Developing Countries: o Probability at birth dying before the age of forty (40), o Percentage of people unable to read or write, o Population below income poverty line, o Population without sustainable access to an improved water source, o Proportion of underweight children.
  37. 37. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 37 of 41 HPI-2 Developed Countries: o Probability at birth of dying before the age of sixty (60), o Percentage of people unable to read or write very-well, o Population with less than fifty (50) percent of average income, o Proportion for people unemployed for 12 months or more. In 2006, the Scandinavian countries of Sweden, Norway and Finland had the lowest poverty values of the 17 developed countries, included in the comparison. The United Kingdom (UK), Ireland and the United States of America (USA) had the highest values, and therefore scored the worst in terms of the poverty measure for developed economies. Research Findings From this research we find the GDP is a narrow measure of economic development or welfare in a country. For example, it does not take account of what people can buy with their incomes, access to health and education, or other non-economic aspects such as the amount of political and cultural freedom people have, the quality of their environment, or level of security against crime and violence. Calculating average GDP of persons also tells us nothing about how incomes are distributed between populations. For example, consider China has a rapid economic growth and it had increased the number of millionaires in the country almost 250,000 by 2006, but still around 47% percent of the Chinese population had to survive on less than $2/= per day, with almost 17 percent on less than $ 1 per day. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has a reasonably high income per head, around $13,100/= in 2005, but most the wealth in the country is held by less than 3 percent of the population. But even within highly developed countries such as the US there are still big disparities rich and poor people. For example, in 2005 around 9 percent of us households had an annual income of $ 10,000 or less compared to 6 percent of households with $ 150,000 or more. Other countries such as Equatorial Guinea, Brunei or Triniland and Tobago also have relatively high average incomes but are generally not considered developed because their economies depend so much on the production of oil. These countries also have very unequal distribution of incomes. For example, in 2005 average income in Trinidad and Tobago was
  38. 38. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 38 of 41 $16,800/= but 39% (percent) of the population lived on less than $2/= per r day. The research reveals that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) only describes the wealth of an economy as whole but it does not reflect economic wellbeing of the individuals of the country. Or, it is said that the GDP growth of country does not provide accurate information that an increase in GDP will guarantee to increase the standard of living of the people of the country. It can be said that the GDP per capita is not sufficient to describe the overall economic condition of the country. There are some other indicators that must be considered while gauging the economic well being of a country. Conclusion & Recommendations From the whole discussion following conclusions has been extracted and over and above some recommendations has been made: The level of economic and human development in different economies can be measured and compared using a range to indicators. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, a measure of average income per person, is a most commonly used economic indicator but it does not represent the economic well-being and economic condition of whole population, due to unequal distribution of wealth or income in many countries. To analyze the economic well being of the people of the country, we can use other development indicators, therefore, such as the adult literacy rate, life expectancy at birth and the number of people earning less than 1$ per day. Besides these, the UN defines HDI & HPI indices can be used to identify the economic well being of the countries. The above mentioned social economic indicators provide better understanding about the standard of living of the individuals and it can be easily understand that, up to what extent, an increase in overall GDP of a country put an impact on the standard of living of the people. The less developed economies have not to work for the size of their economy in shape of GDP, but also have to invest in their infrastructure, education, skills development of human and healthcare facilities. They have to control the growth of the population through controlling the birth rate in their counties.
  39. 39. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 39 of 41 They should have to change their traditional agriculture system and have to introduce modern technology in agriculture to increase their corps, which not only fulfill their own needs but they can also export these and earn income. They have to developed new base for the economy, which should be based on industries. They can achieve this through more investment on capital goods. The above all measures will help the less developed countries to enhance their GDP per capita, but the true economic development will be achieved through the human development and reduction of poverty in the country. Data Collection & References  Books: o Macro Economics, written by Michael Parkin o Economics Analysis, written by Paul Simulsons o Economics Theory and Practice, written K.K. Davit  Theses: o GDP as trued economic indicator o Difference between developed and developing countries  Web Sites: o www.un.org o www.worldbank.org o www.globalissues.org/traderelated/poverty/hunger.asp
  40. 40. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 40 of 41 Appendix  Questionnaire: o What exactly is Gross Domestic Product? o What does it mean? o How it can be calculated? o The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will help to minimize unemployment in the economy? o Is the price of the products directly affected by change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? o Is the investment key component for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth? o Do investor’s consider the GDP growth before making an investment decision in an economy? o What appropriate measure should be taken by the government to improve its GDP level?
  41. 41. A pilot study on the research topic-impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Economic Development Page 41 of 41 o Is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the real difference between less developed and developed economies? o Is it the real economic indicator of economic growth?

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