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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.     Industry Snapshot
     1.1.   Global Market Overview
2.     Japan Healthcare Sector
     2.1.   Pharmaceutical Market Size
            Impact of Earthquake and Tsunami over Pharmaceutical Industry in Japan
       Pharmacies
     2.2.   Japan Pharmaceutical Market Forecasts
3.     Drugs Classification and Market Size
     3.1.   Classification by Distribution Channels
       3.1.1.   Ethical/Prescription Drugs
       3.1.2.   Over the Counter Drugs (OTC)
            OTC Drugs Demand by Major Categories
     3.2.   Industry Forecast by Distribution Channels
     3.3.   Classification by Type of Drugs
       3.3.1.   Patent Drugs
       3.3.2.   Generic Drugs
4.     Growth Drivers
            Chronic Diseases
            Rapidly Aging Population
            Rising Medical care Expenditures
            Consumer Expenditure
            Health Insurance and Life Expectancy
5.     Industry Developments
     5.1.   Recent Trends
     5.2.   Recent Pharmaceutical Industry M&A Activities
     5.3.   Regulatory Structure
     5.4.   Key Issues
                                                                                     2
6.     Country Analysis
     6.1.   Key Findings
     6.2.   Political Environment
       6.2.1.   Government Policy
     6.3.   Macro-economic Indicators
       6.3.1.   GDP Recovery and Growth
       6.3.2.   Population
7.     Industry Competition and Players Profiling
     7.1.   Competitive Landscape
     7.2.   Takeda
       7.2.1.   Business Overview
       7.2.2.   Key Financials
       7.2.3.   Key Findings
     7.3.   Astellas
       7.3.1.   Business Overview
       7.3.2.   Key Financials
       7.3.3.   Key Findings
     7.4.   Daiichi Sankyo Group
       7.4.1.   Business Overview
       7.4.2.   Key Financials
     7.5.   Roche (Chugai)
       7.5.1.   Business Overview
       7.5.2.   Key Financials
8.     Appendix
     8.1.   Abbreviations
     8.2.   Definitions
     8.3.   Research Methodology
            Data Collection Methods

                                                    3
Approach
8.4.   Disclaimer




                    4
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Value (2006-2011E)
Figure 2: Japan Pharmaceutical Sales by Facility in 2010 & 2011E
Figure 3: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Revenues (2006-2011E)
Figure 4: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Forecast (2011-2016)
Figure 5: Share of Drugs by Distribution Channels in (2006-2011)
Figure 6: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E)
Figure 7: OTC Drug Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E)
Figure 8: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by Value (2011-2016)
Figure 9 : OTC Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by value (2011-2016)
Figure 10: Generic Drugs Retail Sales by Value in Japan (2009-2011E)
Figure 11: Japan Aging Population (2006-2010)
Figure 12: Japan Medical Care Expenditures (2006-2010)
Figure 13: Medical Care Insurance (2006-2008)
Figure 14: Japan GDP (at current prices) (2006-2010)
Figure 15: Japan Total Population (2006-2010)




                                                                          5
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Geography (2009, 2010 & 2011E)
Table 2: Number of Pharmacies by Territories in Japan 2010
Table 3: Health Food/Vitamin Import by volume and value (2006-2010)
Table 4: Common OTC Drugs Classification and Market by Value (2006-2011E)
Table 5: Health care Sector in Japan (2005-2010E)
Table 6: Foreign Acquisitions by Japanese Pharmaceutical Companies (2007-2010)
Table 7 : Country Overview
Table 8: Japanese Economy (2010-2012)
Table 9: Leading Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Japan in 2010
Table 10: Comparison of Key Financials in 2010
Table 11: Players Market Share in Ethical Drugs Segment in 2010
Table 12: Takeda Revenue by Geography (2010&2011)
Table 13: Astellas Revenue by Geography (2006-2010)
Table 14: Roche (Chugai) Financials




                                                                                 6
GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW


The trend towards healthy lifestyles and rising healthcare awareness has become a global
phenomenon. In the first quarter of 2010, advertising expenditures on pharmaceutical
                                 products grew 3.60% compared to the same period last
 Japan is the second largest     year, generating USD ~ billion revenues. Japan is the
 market for pharmaceuticals,
                                 second largest market for pharmaceuticals, accounting for
 accounting for 11.20% share in
 global pharmaceutical industry    11.20% share in global pharmaceutical industry. The
                                   impact of recent economic turmoil was not much over
domestic pharmaceutical companies due to an increase in value of Japanese currency against
USD.
Figure: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Value (2006-2011E)
  1,000
           900
           800
           700
           600
 USD Billion




           500
           400
           300
           200
           100
               0
                   2006   2007        2008         2009         2010        2011E




Table: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Geography (2009, 2010 & 2011E)

                                       2009                   2010                  2011E

US

Japan

Europe

Others




                                                                                        7
JAPAN HEALTHCARE SECTOR


The Japanese government is introducing changes in the pharmaceutical industry policies to
make it more transparent and to control counterfeiting of medicines. Government and
healthcare agencies are planning to increase spending on technologies to improve R&D and
manufacturing of drugs.

PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET SIZE


Drug stores, hospitals and clinics account for the largest demand for pharmaceuticals while
supermarkets and other confectionary stores (permitted to keep general cold and flu
medicines) account for only a small percentage of demand. Pharmacies and drug stores hold
51.30% share in terms of sales of pharmaceuticals followed by hospitals and clinics.

Figure 1: Japan Pharmaceutical Sales by Facility in 2010 & 2011E

  120%

  100%

   80%

   60%

   40%

   20%

    0%
                   Hospitals                   Clinics         Pharmecies & Drug   Others
                                                                    Stores
                                                     2010   2011E

Note: Hospitals include both small & large in size




                                            In 2009, pharmaceuticals market in the
     In 2010, Japanese pharmaceutical       country grew 8.67% to USD ~ billion. This
     industry recorded USD 96.13 billion    growth was mainly driven by the treatment of
     revenues and grew almost at a steady
                                            chronic diseases and government healthcare
     rate in 2011
                                            spending. During the same year, some leading
pharmaceutical companies in Japan witnessed slow growth in sales due to fall in demand in
some categories of medicines such as energy drinks, vitamins, Systemic Antibacterial,

                                                                                            8
Calcium Antagonists and expensive drugs used to treat dementia and other chronic
conditions.
In 2010, Japanese pharmaceutical industry recorded USD ~ billion revenues and grew by
5.79% in 2011.

Figure: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Revenues (2006-2011)
                  120


                  100


                  80
    USD Billion




                  60


                  40


                  20


                   0
                        2006       2007            2008            2009            2010            2011E




PHARMACIES



According to MHLW, in 2010, there were ~ pharmacies 1 in Japan, accounting for 42.00% per
100,000 populations while ~ convenience stores were recorded. Saga, Hiroshima, Fukuoka,
Yamaguchi and Kochi has most number of pharmacies; the large numbers of pharmacies
represent high demand for drugs.




1
 The on-site pharmacies in hospitals are referred to as dispensing facilities and are not managed by the MHLW, they are
not included in the number of pharmacies

                                                                                                                     9
Table: Number of Pharmacies by Territories in Japan 2010

                           Pharmacies

Rank     Prefectures       Number          Per 100 thousand population

1        Saga

2        Hiroshima

3        Fukuoka

4        Yamaguchi

5        Kochi

6        Tokushima

7        Tokyo

8        Kagawa

9        Nagasaki

10       Miyazaki

11       Kagoshima

12       Miyagi

13       Yamanashi

14       Akita

15       Gifu

16       Tottori

17       Niigata

18       Oita

19       Iwate

20       Shizuoka




                                                                         10
JAPAN PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET FORECAST


Japanese pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow at a slow rate due to government
reforms in healthcare policy aiming to control rising healthcare cost and uneven demand from
outside Japan. The market is expected to rebound by 2014 at 2.60% growth rate. The
Japanese pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow at a CAGR 2.65% from 2011 to 2016
reaching USD ~ billion.

Figure: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Forecast (2011-2016)

               125

               120

               115
 USD Billion




               110

               105

               100

               95

               90
                     2011   2012        2013        2014         2015         2016




CLASSIFICATION BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS


In Japan, prescription drugs accounted for the largest share of the market which is close to
93.00%. Although, OTC drugs accounted for a small percentage of the market but its share is
expected to improve from 2012 onwards.




                                                                                          11
Figure: Share of Drugs by Distribution Channels in (2006-2011) 2

           100%
            90%
            80%
            70%
            60%
            50%
            40%
            30%
            20%
            10%
             0%
                           2006        2007            2008         2009        2010            2011

                                              Prescription Drugs   OTC Drugs




ETHICAL/PRESCRIPTION DRUGS


                                       The Prescription drugs accounts for the largest share
                  The prescription drugs sales in
                                      of total drugs sale in the country but a slow fall in its
                  the third quarter (July-Sep) of
                                      market share is expected to start from 2012 onwards
                  2011 grew 4.70% compared to
                  same period in 2010 influenced by falling patent drugs retail sales growth.
                                      In 2011, estimated prescription drugs sales by value
reached USD ~ billion. During the third quarter 2011, prescription drugs retail sales showed a
growth of 4.70% as compared to results generated in the Q3 2010 and in terms of value USD
~ billion.

Figure: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E)
                   100
                    90
                    80
    USD Billion




                    70
                    60
                    50
                    40
                    30
                    20
                    10
                     0
                            2006         2007           2008         2009        2010           2011E

2
 Here we have categorized drugs in two segments prescription drugs and OTC drugs. Drugs for household delivery have
been included in prescription drugs

                                                                                                               12
OVER THE COUNTER DRUGS (OTC)


Government initiative to deregulate pharmaceutical industry in Japan brought changes in
OTC structure wherein certain OTC drugs became quasi 3 to make available at general retail
                                        stores such as convenience stores. In 2011, OTC
   In 2011, OTC market grew by 4.26%    market grew by 4.26% from previous year and its
   from previous year and its share in
                                        share in total pharmaceutical drugs market
   total pharmaceutical drugs market
   reached 6.98%                        reached 6.98% although this percentage was low
                                        from 2010 results.

Figure: OTC Drug Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E)

               8
               7
               6
               5
 USD Billion




               4
               3
               2
               1
               0
                   2006            2007             2008             2009             2010           2011E




OTC DRUGS DEMAND BY MAJOR CATEGORIES



Cold and Flu (C&F) Medicines
Cold & flu medicines are always on demand and account for a significant share of OTC
                                      segment. Rise and fall on demand depends upon
    Retail sales of cold and flu      weather conditions, spending power and behavior
    medicines grew by 3.88% in
                                      pattern. Demand for OTC cold and flu medicines is
    Japan
                                      not stable in the country. The retail sales of cold and
flu medicines grew by 3.88% in Japan reaching USD ~ million in 2010.



3 Quasi drugs are defined as medications that are milder in effect than regular drugs and are safe to be purchased without
advice from medical experts, such as pharmacists.
                                                                                                                      13
Health Food and Vitamins Market

The 2009 vitamin preparations market import fell compared to the figures recorded a year
back. In 2010, the total import of health food and vitamins reached ~ tons but on the other
hand, the total amount of imported vitamin powder decreased in 2010 due to the fall in unit
price led by price competition for end-products.

Table: Health Food/Vitamin Import by volume and value (2006-2010)

                                             Volume                    Value

                                             2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Homogenised composite food preparations

Panax Genseng and extracts

Food supplement with a basis of vitamins

Total Vitamin powder

Vitamin A

Vitamin B1

Vitamin B2

Vitamin B3/Vitamin B5

Vitamin B6

Vitamin B12

Vitamin C

Vitamin E

Total vitamin preparations

Other vitamins

Vitamin preparations

Total

Note: Volume in Tons, Figures in JPY Yen million

Digestive Medicines

                                                          Growth in this segment is uncertain,
  The Japanese digestive medicines segment is             depending upon changing lifestyle,
  witnessing a continuous fall in shipment by             environment, and awareness of cause and
  volume and value from last four years
                                                          effect of health problems. The estimated
                                                          market size of digestive medicines is USD
~ million in 2011.
                                                                                                14
Table: Common OTC Drugs Classification and Market by Value (2006-2011E)


                               2006    2007     2008       2009           2010           2011E


Cold & Flu Medicines


Health Drink


Digestive Medicines

Note: Figures in USD Million




INDUSTRY FORECAST BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS


In coming years prescription drugs demand is expected to show mixed results; initially from
2011-2013 it is expected to witness fall in growth rate and from 2014 onwards is expected to
witness a positive growth trend, although growth rate will be low compared to historical
performance. Prescription drugs share in overall pharmaceutical market is also expected to
decline from 93.01% in 2011 to 91.58% in 2016.

The overall prescription drugs sales is expected to register slow growth reaching USD ~
billion by 2016 at a CAGR 2.39% from 2011-2016.

Figure: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by Value (2011-2016)
               120

               115
 USD Billion




               110

               105

               100

               95

               90
                     2011E     2012F    2013F      2014F          2015F          2016F

Vitamins, Antiallergic, skincare and Antibiotics will push the OTC drugs demand which
currently account for a small share of the overall pharmaceutical industry in Japan. OTC
drugs market is expected to grow at CAGR 6.22% from 2011-2016.

                                                                                                 15
Figure: OTC Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by value (2011-2016)

              12


              10
USD Billion




              8


              6


              4


              2


              0
                   2011E   2012F       2013F        2014F        2015F       2016F




CLASSIFICATION BY TYPE OF DRUGS


Drugs are categorized in two segments: Patent and Generic.

PATENT DRUGS


Patent can be applied or granted, this way a company receives an exclusive right to produce a
drug using certain process which cannot be copied. In 2010, ~% prescription drugs revenues
were generated by patented drugs in Japan.



GENERIC DRUGS


In Japan, generic drug market is in development stage, presently accounted for only ~% (by
volume) and 6.75% (by value) of the total drug sales in 2010. By the end of 2012,
government officials are expecting generics sales volume to increase by 30% from 22.60% in
2010. This growth will be driven by cost cutting in many patented drugs by government,
expiry of major drugs patents by 2012 and pressure on hospitals and clinics to support this
initiative. By value, generics market reached USD ~ billion in 2010 as compared to USD ~
billion in 2009 and is further expected to cross USD ~ billion by 2014.
                                                                                          16
Figure: Generic Drugs Retail Sales by Value in Japan (2009-2011E)
                  7.2
                   7
                  6.8
    USD Billion




                  6.6
                  6.4
                  6.2
                   6
                  5.8
                  5.6
                          2009                     2010                     2011E




COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE


In recent years, many foreign companies entered in the Japanese pharmaceutical industry to
compete with domestic players in developing generics market. Many international firms such
as Mylan, Sandoz, Teva, Hospira, Actavis, Ranbaxy, Lupin, and Zydus have entered in the
market using different modes. Also, many small domestic players are entering into joint
ventures with large pharmaceutical companies to expand their reach and compete with large
foreign companies.

Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Japan in 2010

                                              Domestic Sales
Manufacturer                              (in billions of yen)   Japan Ranking      Market Share

Takeda

Astellas

Taiyo 4

Eisai

Daiichi Sankyo Group




4
    Teva acquired a 57% stake in 2H2011

                                                                                             17
Table: Comparison of Key Financials in 2010

                                      Takeda           Astellas            Eisai

Earnings Per Share (Yen)

Return on equity (ROE)

Operating Margin (%)

Net Profit Margin (%)

Asset Turnover (%)

Source: Company Reports

Table: Players Market Share in Ethical Drugs Segment

Companies in Ethical Drugs Segment                                Market Share %

Takeda Yakuhin Kogyo

Astellas Seiyaku

Daiichi Sankyo

Mitsubishi Tanabe

Chugai Seiyaku

Eisai




For more information please refer to the below mentioned link:

info@ammindpower.com




                                                                             18

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Japan pharmaceutical industry & forecast focus on otc and prescription drugs-sample report

  • 1. 1
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Industry Snapshot 1.1. Global Market Overview 2. Japan Healthcare Sector 2.1. Pharmaceutical Market Size Impact of Earthquake and Tsunami over Pharmaceutical Industry in Japan Pharmacies 2.2. Japan Pharmaceutical Market Forecasts 3. Drugs Classification and Market Size 3.1. Classification by Distribution Channels 3.1.1. Ethical/Prescription Drugs 3.1.2. Over the Counter Drugs (OTC) OTC Drugs Demand by Major Categories 3.2. Industry Forecast by Distribution Channels 3.3. Classification by Type of Drugs 3.3.1. Patent Drugs 3.3.2. Generic Drugs 4. Growth Drivers Chronic Diseases Rapidly Aging Population Rising Medical care Expenditures Consumer Expenditure Health Insurance and Life Expectancy 5. Industry Developments 5.1. Recent Trends 5.2. Recent Pharmaceutical Industry M&A Activities 5.3. Regulatory Structure 5.4. Key Issues 2
  • 3. 6. Country Analysis 6.1. Key Findings 6.2. Political Environment 6.2.1. Government Policy 6.3. Macro-economic Indicators 6.3.1. GDP Recovery and Growth 6.3.2. Population 7. Industry Competition and Players Profiling 7.1. Competitive Landscape 7.2. Takeda 7.2.1. Business Overview 7.2.2. Key Financials 7.2.3. Key Findings 7.3. Astellas 7.3.1. Business Overview 7.3.2. Key Financials 7.3.3. Key Findings 7.4. Daiichi Sankyo Group 7.4.1. Business Overview 7.4.2. Key Financials 7.5. Roche (Chugai) 7.5.1. Business Overview 7.5.2. Key Financials 8. Appendix 8.1. Abbreviations 8.2. Definitions 8.3. Research Methodology Data Collection Methods 3
  • 4. Approach 8.4. Disclaimer 4
  • 5. LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Value (2006-2011E) Figure 2: Japan Pharmaceutical Sales by Facility in 2010 & 2011E Figure 3: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Revenues (2006-2011E) Figure 4: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Forecast (2011-2016) Figure 5: Share of Drugs by Distribution Channels in (2006-2011) Figure 6: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E) Figure 7: OTC Drug Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E) Figure 8: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by Value (2011-2016) Figure 9 : OTC Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by value (2011-2016) Figure 10: Generic Drugs Retail Sales by Value in Japan (2009-2011E) Figure 11: Japan Aging Population (2006-2010) Figure 12: Japan Medical Care Expenditures (2006-2010) Figure 13: Medical Care Insurance (2006-2008) Figure 14: Japan GDP (at current prices) (2006-2010) Figure 15: Japan Total Population (2006-2010) 5
  • 6. LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Geography (2009, 2010 & 2011E) Table 2: Number of Pharmacies by Territories in Japan 2010 Table 3: Health Food/Vitamin Import by volume and value (2006-2010) Table 4: Common OTC Drugs Classification and Market by Value (2006-2011E) Table 5: Health care Sector in Japan (2005-2010E) Table 6: Foreign Acquisitions by Japanese Pharmaceutical Companies (2007-2010) Table 7 : Country Overview Table 8: Japanese Economy (2010-2012) Table 9: Leading Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Japan in 2010 Table 10: Comparison of Key Financials in 2010 Table 11: Players Market Share in Ethical Drugs Segment in 2010 Table 12: Takeda Revenue by Geography (2010&2011) Table 13: Astellas Revenue by Geography (2006-2010) Table 14: Roche (Chugai) Financials 6
  • 7. GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW The trend towards healthy lifestyles and rising healthcare awareness has become a global phenomenon. In the first quarter of 2010, advertising expenditures on pharmaceutical products grew 3.60% compared to the same period last Japan is the second largest year, generating USD ~ billion revenues. Japan is the market for pharmaceuticals, second largest market for pharmaceuticals, accounting for accounting for 11.20% share in global pharmaceutical industry 11.20% share in global pharmaceutical industry. The impact of recent economic turmoil was not much over domestic pharmaceutical companies due to an increase in value of Japanese currency against USD. Figure: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Value (2006-2011E) 1,000 900 800 700 600 USD Billion 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Table: Global Pharmaceutical Market by Geography (2009, 2010 & 2011E) 2009 2010 2011E US Japan Europe Others 7
  • 8. JAPAN HEALTHCARE SECTOR The Japanese government is introducing changes in the pharmaceutical industry policies to make it more transparent and to control counterfeiting of medicines. Government and healthcare agencies are planning to increase spending on technologies to improve R&D and manufacturing of drugs. PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET SIZE Drug stores, hospitals and clinics account for the largest demand for pharmaceuticals while supermarkets and other confectionary stores (permitted to keep general cold and flu medicines) account for only a small percentage of demand. Pharmacies and drug stores hold 51.30% share in terms of sales of pharmaceuticals followed by hospitals and clinics. Figure 1: Japan Pharmaceutical Sales by Facility in 2010 & 2011E 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Hospitals Clinics Pharmecies & Drug Others Stores 2010 2011E Note: Hospitals include both small & large in size In 2009, pharmaceuticals market in the In 2010, Japanese pharmaceutical country grew 8.67% to USD ~ billion. This industry recorded USD 96.13 billion growth was mainly driven by the treatment of revenues and grew almost at a steady chronic diseases and government healthcare rate in 2011 spending. During the same year, some leading pharmaceutical companies in Japan witnessed slow growth in sales due to fall in demand in some categories of medicines such as energy drinks, vitamins, Systemic Antibacterial, 8
  • 9. Calcium Antagonists and expensive drugs used to treat dementia and other chronic conditions. In 2010, Japanese pharmaceutical industry recorded USD ~ billion revenues and grew by 5.79% in 2011. Figure: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Revenues (2006-2011) 120 100 80 USD Billion 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E PHARMACIES According to MHLW, in 2010, there were ~ pharmacies 1 in Japan, accounting for 42.00% per 100,000 populations while ~ convenience stores were recorded. Saga, Hiroshima, Fukuoka, Yamaguchi and Kochi has most number of pharmacies; the large numbers of pharmacies represent high demand for drugs. 1 The on-site pharmacies in hospitals are referred to as dispensing facilities and are not managed by the MHLW, they are not included in the number of pharmacies 9
  • 10. Table: Number of Pharmacies by Territories in Japan 2010 Pharmacies Rank Prefectures Number Per 100 thousand population 1 Saga 2 Hiroshima 3 Fukuoka 4 Yamaguchi 5 Kochi 6 Tokushima 7 Tokyo 8 Kagawa 9 Nagasaki 10 Miyazaki 11 Kagoshima 12 Miyagi 13 Yamanashi 14 Akita 15 Gifu 16 Tottori 17 Niigata 18 Oita 19 Iwate 20 Shizuoka 10
  • 11. JAPAN PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET FORECAST Japanese pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow at a slow rate due to government reforms in healthcare policy aiming to control rising healthcare cost and uneven demand from outside Japan. The market is expected to rebound by 2014 at 2.60% growth rate. The Japanese pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow at a CAGR 2.65% from 2011 to 2016 reaching USD ~ billion. Figure: Japan Pharmaceutical Industry Forecast (2011-2016) 125 120 115 USD Billion 110 105 100 95 90 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLASSIFICATION BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS In Japan, prescription drugs accounted for the largest share of the market which is close to 93.00%. Although, OTC drugs accounted for a small percentage of the market but its share is expected to improve from 2012 onwards. 11
  • 12. Figure: Share of Drugs by Distribution Channels in (2006-2011) 2 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Prescription Drugs OTC Drugs ETHICAL/PRESCRIPTION DRUGS The Prescription drugs accounts for the largest share The prescription drugs sales in of total drugs sale in the country but a slow fall in its the third quarter (July-Sep) of market share is expected to start from 2012 onwards 2011 grew 4.70% compared to same period in 2010 influenced by falling patent drugs retail sales growth. In 2011, estimated prescription drugs sales by value reached USD ~ billion. During the third quarter 2011, prescription drugs retail sales showed a growth of 4.70% as compared to results generated in the Q3 2010 and in terms of value USD ~ billion. Figure: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E) 100 90 80 USD Billion 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2 Here we have categorized drugs in two segments prescription drugs and OTC drugs. Drugs for household delivery have been included in prescription drugs 12
  • 13. OVER THE COUNTER DRUGS (OTC) Government initiative to deregulate pharmaceutical industry in Japan brought changes in OTC structure wherein certain OTC drugs became quasi 3 to make available at general retail stores such as convenience stores. In 2011, OTC In 2011, OTC market grew by 4.26% market grew by 4.26% from previous year and its from previous year and its share in share in total pharmaceutical drugs market total pharmaceutical drugs market reached 6.98% reached 6.98% although this percentage was low from 2010 results. Figure: OTC Drug Retail Sales by Value (2006-2011E) 8 7 6 5 USD Billion 4 3 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E OTC DRUGS DEMAND BY MAJOR CATEGORIES Cold and Flu (C&F) Medicines Cold & flu medicines are always on demand and account for a significant share of OTC segment. Rise and fall on demand depends upon Retail sales of cold and flu weather conditions, spending power and behavior medicines grew by 3.88% in pattern. Demand for OTC cold and flu medicines is Japan not stable in the country. The retail sales of cold and flu medicines grew by 3.88% in Japan reaching USD ~ million in 2010. 3 Quasi drugs are defined as medications that are milder in effect than regular drugs and are safe to be purchased without advice from medical experts, such as pharmacists. 13
  • 14. Health Food and Vitamins Market The 2009 vitamin preparations market import fell compared to the figures recorded a year back. In 2010, the total import of health food and vitamins reached ~ tons but on the other hand, the total amount of imported vitamin powder decreased in 2010 due to the fall in unit price led by price competition for end-products. Table: Health Food/Vitamin Import by volume and value (2006-2010) Volume Value 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Homogenised composite food preparations Panax Genseng and extracts Food supplement with a basis of vitamins Total Vitamin powder Vitamin A Vitamin B1 Vitamin B2 Vitamin B3/Vitamin B5 Vitamin B6 Vitamin B12 Vitamin C Vitamin E Total vitamin preparations Other vitamins Vitamin preparations Total Note: Volume in Tons, Figures in JPY Yen million Digestive Medicines Growth in this segment is uncertain, The Japanese digestive medicines segment is depending upon changing lifestyle, witnessing a continuous fall in shipment by environment, and awareness of cause and volume and value from last four years effect of health problems. The estimated market size of digestive medicines is USD ~ million in 2011. 14
  • 15. Table: Common OTC Drugs Classification and Market by Value (2006-2011E) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Cold & Flu Medicines Health Drink Digestive Medicines Note: Figures in USD Million INDUSTRY FORECAST BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS In coming years prescription drugs demand is expected to show mixed results; initially from 2011-2013 it is expected to witness fall in growth rate and from 2014 onwards is expected to witness a positive growth trend, although growth rate will be low compared to historical performance. Prescription drugs share in overall pharmaceutical market is also expected to decline from 93.01% in 2011 to 91.58% in 2016. The overall prescription drugs sales is expected to register slow growth reaching USD ~ billion by 2016 at a CAGR 2.39% from 2011-2016. Figure: Prescription Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by Value (2011-2016) 120 115 USD Billion 110 105 100 95 90 2011E 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Vitamins, Antiallergic, skincare and Antibiotics will push the OTC drugs demand which currently account for a small share of the overall pharmaceutical industry in Japan. OTC drugs market is expected to grow at CAGR 6.22% from 2011-2016. 15
  • 16. Figure: OTC Drugs Retail Sales Forecast by value (2011-2016) 12 10 USD Billion 8 6 4 2 0 2011E 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F CLASSIFICATION BY TYPE OF DRUGS Drugs are categorized in two segments: Patent and Generic. PATENT DRUGS Patent can be applied or granted, this way a company receives an exclusive right to produce a drug using certain process which cannot be copied. In 2010, ~% prescription drugs revenues were generated by patented drugs in Japan. GENERIC DRUGS In Japan, generic drug market is in development stage, presently accounted for only ~% (by volume) and 6.75% (by value) of the total drug sales in 2010. By the end of 2012, government officials are expecting generics sales volume to increase by 30% from 22.60% in 2010. This growth will be driven by cost cutting in many patented drugs by government, expiry of major drugs patents by 2012 and pressure on hospitals and clinics to support this initiative. By value, generics market reached USD ~ billion in 2010 as compared to USD ~ billion in 2009 and is further expected to cross USD ~ billion by 2014. 16
  • 17. Figure: Generic Drugs Retail Sales by Value in Japan (2009-2011E) 7.2 7 6.8 USD Billion 6.6 6.4 6.2 6 5.8 5.6 2009 2010 2011E COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE In recent years, many foreign companies entered in the Japanese pharmaceutical industry to compete with domestic players in developing generics market. Many international firms such as Mylan, Sandoz, Teva, Hospira, Actavis, Ranbaxy, Lupin, and Zydus have entered in the market using different modes. Also, many small domestic players are entering into joint ventures with large pharmaceutical companies to expand their reach and compete with large foreign companies. Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Japan in 2010 Domestic Sales Manufacturer (in billions of yen) Japan Ranking Market Share Takeda Astellas Taiyo 4 Eisai Daiichi Sankyo Group 4 Teva acquired a 57% stake in 2H2011 17
  • 18. Table: Comparison of Key Financials in 2010 Takeda Astellas Eisai Earnings Per Share (Yen) Return on equity (ROE) Operating Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) Asset Turnover (%) Source: Company Reports Table: Players Market Share in Ethical Drugs Segment Companies in Ethical Drugs Segment Market Share % Takeda Yakuhin Kogyo Astellas Seiyaku Daiichi Sankyo Mitsubishi Tanabe Chugai Seiyaku Eisai For more information please refer to the below mentioned link: info@ammindpower.com 18