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Biting the hand and
bending the rules
By Annie Pettit PhD, Chief Research Officer, Conversition
Bestsentiment
systemever!
Our sentiment
is
99% valid
Misinformation #1
4
Real-life Data Analysis: How Many Licks to the Tootsie Roll Center of a Tootsie Pop?
by Cory Heid, guest blogger
Almost all of us have tried a Tootsie Pop at some point. I’m willing to bet that most of us also thought, “I wonder
how many licks it does take to get to the center of the Tootsie Pop?” If you haven’t wondered about this, here’s
the classic commercial that may get you more curious.
Personally, I was not very satisfied with the owl's answer of “3,” so I decided to continue the little boy’s quest to
find the number of licks required to reach the center of a Tootsie Pop.
Research
Looking around the ‘net, I found that other studies done by student researchers at various universities have
reached very different answers. These students, who represented some significant research institutions and
engineering schools, used different licking methodologies and/or licking machines and licking experiments. As I
mentioned, the results varied greatly. See for yourself:
Since I lacked both the equipment and desire to build a licking machine, a simpler licking experiment seemed
appropriate. I wanted to assess which of these factors would have the most impact on the effectiveness of the
Tootsie-Pop licking:
Force of the lick
Temperature of the licker's mouth
pH Level of the licker's saliva
Solubility of the licker's saliva
Lab Work
Once I selected my factors, I incorporated them into an experiment. I chose simulate the different levels of each
factor in the lab. For my force simulation, I placed my Tootsie Pop in a beaker with 150 mL of water and a
magnetic stirrer. I placed the beaker on a hot plate that could spin the stirrer and create a circular motion in the
water. I then pulled the Tootsie Pop out of the water every minute and measured the height and width of the
pop on the thicker band around the pop. I did this each minute until the pop revealed a noticeable amount of
chocolate (the elusive ‘center’).
This method had some issues. The chocolate-flavored Tootsie Pops made the water very murky, so I omitted
them from the lab testing. I also could not track the speed of the circulating water. Instead, I used the speed
dial’s indicator on the magnetic stirrer (1 being slowest speed, 10 being fastest speed). After several tests at
speeds 1, 2, 4 and 6, I was able to gather an ample amount of data to perform some analysis.
I then moved on to the temperature tests. Like the force tests, these used a beaker, 150 mL of water, and a hot
plate. I heated the water to different temperatures and measured the height and width of the Tootsie Pop every
Long Verbatims have poor validity
5
• I want Cracker Jacks.
• Cracker Jacks are the shit
• i want Cracker Jacks soo
bad
• I am addicted to Cracker
Jacks...
Short verbatims have high validity
6
Which sentiment trend is more valid?
7
5=
Positive
1=
Negative
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
Short Long
“The best academic study I've seen showed only
82% agreement between two human sentiment
annotators, rising to 90% if uncertain cases are
removed.“
Seth Grimes, June 2011,
http://www.b-eye-network.com/view/15276
The Truth
8
Sentiment
scoring is one
size fits all
Misinformation #2
9
One size scoring or custom scoring?
10
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
OneSize Scoring Custom Scoring
Standard scoring or category scoring?
11
20%
40%
60%
80%
Standard Category
Twitter
(survey)
is a Godsend
Misinformation #3
12
0%
20%
40%
60%
Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes
0%
20%
40%
60%
Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes
0%
20%
40%
60%
Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes
0%
20%
40%
60%
Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes
Guess the brands (Tootsie Roll, Chicago Bears,
Cracker Jack, Ferris Wheels)
13
Blogspot
Tumblr
Twitter
Facebook
I can measure
your brand
awareness
Misinformation #4
14
Pfizer has greater awareness than Unilever
15
0
10000
20000
30000
Pfizer Unilever
P90X has even greater awareness than Pfizer
16
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
P90X Pfizer Unilever Red Rose Tea
Cracker Jacks
and Tootsie Rolls
are here
Demographics
are available
Misinformation #5
17
Care to Crosstab Demos on Starbucks Data?
18
Total Male
Femal
e
US
Europ
e
Asia
Canad
a
Middl
e East
Pacific Africa 25-34 18-24 35-44 45-54 55+
Sample Size 18557 4182 3706 2118 358 247 220 47 35 20 12 9 6 6 2
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Social media
results are
instantaneous
Misinformation #6
19
Antacid: Fast or Good?
20
0%
20%
40%
60%
Negative Neutral Positive
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Negative Neutral Positive
Fast: With Spam Good: Without Spam
What is GMC?
21
GMC: Fast or Good?
22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
GMC Auto GMC Any
B2B N T2B
Insight is
instant
Misinformation #7
23
Expertise is required
24
+ =
The internet
was made for
engagement
Misinformation #8
25
Famous people signed up for this
26
27
28
29
• http://www.mra-
net.org/rq/documents/MRA_IMRO_SMR16.pdf
• http://www.casro.org/pdfs/1011/Social_Media_Researc
h_Guidelines.pdf
• http://www.esomar.org/uploads/public/knowledge-
and-standards/codes-and-
guidelines/ESOMAR_Guideline-on-Social-Media.pdf
• http://www.mrs.org.uk/pdf/2012-04-
04%20Online%20data%20collection%20and%20privac
y.pdf
MRX guidelines say don’t do that
Who’s a member?
31
Why aren’t listening companies members?
32
Stifles my creativity
#1 Why not?
33
I don’t want someone telling
me what to do
#2 Why not?
34
They will put me out of
business
#3 Why not?
35
Confessions
• Strengths and weaknesses
• Sentiment analysis is
nowhere near perfect
• Speed will not result in
high quality
• Demographics are weak
• Stance on privacy
What to look for
36
Thank you!
37

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"Biting the hand and bending the rules"

  • 1. Biting the hand and bending the rules By Annie Pettit PhD, Chief Research Officer, Conversition Bestsentiment systemever!
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 5. Real-life Data Analysis: How Many Licks to the Tootsie Roll Center of a Tootsie Pop? by Cory Heid, guest blogger Almost all of us have tried a Tootsie Pop at some point. I’m willing to bet that most of us also thought, “I wonder how many licks it does take to get to the center of the Tootsie Pop?” If you haven’t wondered about this, here’s the classic commercial that may get you more curious. Personally, I was not very satisfied with the owl's answer of “3,” so I decided to continue the little boy’s quest to find the number of licks required to reach the center of a Tootsie Pop. Research Looking around the ‘net, I found that other studies done by student researchers at various universities have reached very different answers. These students, who represented some significant research institutions and engineering schools, used different licking methodologies and/or licking machines and licking experiments. As I mentioned, the results varied greatly. See for yourself: Since I lacked both the equipment and desire to build a licking machine, a simpler licking experiment seemed appropriate. I wanted to assess which of these factors would have the most impact on the effectiveness of the Tootsie-Pop licking: Force of the lick Temperature of the licker's mouth pH Level of the licker's saliva Solubility of the licker's saliva Lab Work Once I selected my factors, I incorporated them into an experiment. I chose simulate the different levels of each factor in the lab. For my force simulation, I placed my Tootsie Pop in a beaker with 150 mL of water and a magnetic stirrer. I placed the beaker on a hot plate that could spin the stirrer and create a circular motion in the water. I then pulled the Tootsie Pop out of the water every minute and measured the height and width of the pop on the thicker band around the pop. I did this each minute until the pop revealed a noticeable amount of chocolate (the elusive ‘center’). This method had some issues. The chocolate-flavored Tootsie Pops made the water very murky, so I omitted them from the lab testing. I also could not track the speed of the circulating water. Instead, I used the speed dial’s indicator on the magnetic stirrer (1 being slowest speed, 10 being fastest speed). After several tests at speeds 1, 2, 4 and 6, I was able to gather an ample amount of data to perform some analysis. I then moved on to the temperature tests. Like the force tests, these used a beaker, 150 mL of water, and a hot plate. I heated the water to different temperatures and measured the height and width of the Tootsie Pop every Long Verbatims have poor validity 5
  • 6. • I want Cracker Jacks. • Cracker Jacks are the shit • i want Cracker Jacks soo bad • I am addicted to Cracker Jacks... Short verbatims have high validity 6
  • 7. Which sentiment trend is more valid? 7 5= Positive 1= Negative 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Short Long
  • 8. “The best academic study I've seen showed only 82% agreement between two human sentiment annotators, rising to 90% if uncertain cases are removed.“ Seth Grimes, June 2011, http://www.b-eye-network.com/view/15276 The Truth 8
  • 9. Sentiment scoring is one size fits all Misinformation #2 9
  • 10. One size scoring or custom scoring? 10 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OneSize Scoring Custom Scoring
  • 11. Standard scoring or category scoring? 11 20% 40% 60% 80% Standard Category
  • 13. 0% 20% 40% 60% Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes 0% 20% 40% 60% Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes 0% 20% 40% 60% Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes 0% 20% 40% 60% Bottom 2 Boxes Neutral Top 2 Boxes Guess the brands (Tootsie Roll, Chicago Bears, Cracker Jack, Ferris Wheels) 13 Blogspot Tumblr Twitter Facebook
  • 14. I can measure your brand awareness Misinformation #4 14
  • 15. Pfizer has greater awareness than Unilever 15 0 10000 20000 30000 Pfizer Unilever
  • 16. P90X has even greater awareness than Pfizer 16 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 P90X Pfizer Unilever Red Rose Tea Cracker Jacks and Tootsie Rolls are here
  • 18. Care to Crosstab Demos on Starbucks Data? 18 Total Male Femal e US Europ e Asia Canad a Middl e East Pacific Africa 25-34 18-24 35-44 45-54 55+ Sample Size 18557 4182 3706 2118 358 247 220 47 35 20 12 9 6 6 2 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
  • 20. Antacid: Fast or Good? 20 0% 20% 40% 60% Negative Neutral Positive 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Negative Neutral Positive Fast: With Spam Good: Without Spam
  • 22. GMC: Fast or Good? 22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% GMC Auto GMC Any B2B N T2B
  • 25. The internet was made for engagement Misinformation #8 25
  • 26. Famous people signed up for this 26
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  • 30. • http://www.mra- net.org/rq/documents/MRA_IMRO_SMR16.pdf • http://www.casro.org/pdfs/1011/Social_Media_Researc h_Guidelines.pdf • http://www.esomar.org/uploads/public/knowledge- and-standards/codes-and- guidelines/ESOMAR_Guideline-on-Social-Media.pdf • http://www.mrs.org.uk/pdf/2012-04- 04%20Online%20data%20collection%20and%20privac y.pdf MRX guidelines say don’t do that
  • 32. Why aren’t listening companies members? 32
  • 34. I don’t want someone telling me what to do #2 Why not? 34
  • 35. They will put me out of business #3 Why not? 35
  • 36. Confessions • Strengths and weaknesses • Sentiment analysis is nowhere near perfect • Speed will not result in high quality • Demographics are weak • Stance on privacy What to look for 36