1. SOPs FOR FLOOD FORECASTING/
EARLY WARNINGS
AND
DESSIMINATIONS
M.AKRAM ANJUM
Director
PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION
LAHORE-PAKISTAN
2. Monsoon Season in Pakistan
(15th
June to 15th
October )
• Pre Monsoon 15th
June to 15th
July
• Monsoon 16th
July to 15th
Sept
• Post Monsoon 16th
Sept to 15th
Oct
Monsoon Season
3. Stakeholders
Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority (PIDA)
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
Provincial Relief Organization
Pakistan Army
Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW)
Emergency Relief Cell (ERC)
Federal Flood Commission (FFC)
5. Specialized Early Warning Centres of
PAKISTAN
National Weather
Forecasting Centre
Islamabad
(NWFC)
National Drought
Monitoring & Early
Warning Centre
Islamabad
(NDMC)
National Seismic Monitoring &
Tsunami Early Warning Centre
Karachi
(NTWC)
Marine Meteorology &
Tropical Cyclone Early
Warning Centre
Karachi
(TCWC)
Flood Forecasting Division
Lahore (FFD)
Flood Forecasting &
Warning Centre
For Lai Nullah Basin
Islamabad
6. Processing at FFD Lahore
Mnaual
Computer Models
National Data
PMD
WAPDA
Irrigitaion Dept
International
Data
PCIW
WMO
Product
Flood Forecast & Warnings
Dessimination
7.
8. FFD provides qualitative forecast minimum
24-36 hours in advance of actual
precipitation indicating the intensity of rain
bearing system (Bulletin A & B daily basis)
FFD provides quantitative forecast about
12-hours in advance of actual peak
describing range of peak and minimum &
maximum volume of flood hydrograph
(Significant flood forecast/ warning) when
it is required
SOP FOR ISSUANCE OF FLOOD FORECAST FOR STAKEHOLDERS
9. According to SOP Data available on PMD
Website for users
http://www.pakmet.com.pk/ (Click Flood Update)
•Qualitative Forecast (Bulletin-A)
•Quantitative Forecast (Bulletin-B)
•Significant Flood Forecast (Warning)
•Dams Flow
•Hydrological Data /Hydrographs
•Rainfall
•Historical Peaks
•Other Relevant Information
10. CONTENTSCONTENTS OF BULLITEN A&B AS PER SOPsCONTENTSCONTENTS OF BULLITEN A&B AS PER SOPsCONTENTSCONTENTS OF BULLITEN A&B AS PER SOPsCONTENTSCONTENTS OF BULLITEN A&B AS PER SOPs
CONTENTS OF
BULLITEN A&B
AS PER SOPs
11. GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION
46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE-54000
BULLETIN No. A-078
1. Federal Minister, Water & Power, Islamabad.
2. Governor (All Provinces).
3. Chairman NDMA., Islamabad.
4. Chief Minister (All Provinces).
5. Secretary, Ministry of Defence, Rawalpindi.
6. Secretary, Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad.
7. Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad.
8. Chairman NHA, Islamabad.
9. Chief Secretary (All Provinces & AJK).
10. PDMA’S( D.G’S, All Provinces & AJK).
11. Administrator & Chief Secretary, Gilgit-Baltistan
12. Chairman, Indus River System Authority, Islamabad.
13. Chairman, Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad.
14. Commissioner for Indus Waters, Lahore.
15. Relief Commissioner, (All Provinces & A.J.K).
16. The Secretary General, Pakistan Red Crescent
Society, Islamabad.
17. Secretary, Irrigation Department, (All Provinces).
18. D.G. Relief, (All Provinces).
19. D.G. Emergency Relief Cell, Cabinet Division, Islamabad.
20. Chief Engineer, Mangla/Tarbela/Chashma.
21. Chief Engineer, Irrigation (All Provinces).
22. Chief Engineer, (All Barrages).
23. Chief Engineer, C.D.O. (Muzaffarabad).
24. All concerned D. C. Os.
SUBJECT:- FLOOD SITUATION AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:
I. FLOOD SITUATION:
River Indus at Kotri is in Exceptionally High Flood and falling. River Indus at
Guddu & Sukkur is in High Flood. River Kabul at Nowshera & River Chenab at
Punjnad are in Low Flood.
II. HYDRO METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES:
(a) Seasonal low lies over Balochistan with its trough extends Southeast Sindh.
(b) Moist current from Bay of Bengal is penetrating into Punjab and Kashmir upto 3000
feet.
(c)
III. FORECAST:
Scattered thundershowers is expected over sub-mountainous areas of Punjab, Southeast Sindh
and Kashmir.
IV. RAINFALL RECORDED(MM) DURING PAST 24 HRS (UPTO 0800 PST):
NIL.
V. WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 48-HOURS:
Scattered thundershowers is expected over Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and
Kashmir.
Web Site Address:-
www.pakmet.com.pk (Flood Update)
Duty Officer 24 hrs. Phone: LHR 99200139, 99201238
99201244, 99205159,
99205160
(M. AKRAM ANJUM)
Chief Meteorologist
Ph. Office : 042-99200208
Fax: 042-99200209
Dated:- 31st Aug, 2010
Time:- 09: 45 hours (PST)
12. GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION
46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE-54000
BULLETIN No. B-078
WEATHER/RAINFALL FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HRS:
RIVERS Upper Catchments
(Above Rim Stations)
Lower Catchments
(Below Rim Stations)
INDUS Mainly Dry Scattered thundershowers
(Rawalpindi Division)
JHELUM Scattered thundershowers Mainly Dry
(Sargodha Division)
CHENAB -do- Scattered thundershowers
(Gujranwala Division)
RAVI -do- Mainly Dry
(Lahore Division)
SUTLEJ -do- -do-
(B. Pur Divisions)
FLOOD FORECAST OF GAUGING STATIONS (IN THOUSANDS OF CUSECS)
RIVERS Stations Design Capacity
Actual Observations at 0600 PST Computerized
Forecast for Next
24 hrs. ( Inflow )
Forecasted Flood
Level
( Inflow )
Danger Level
(Very High Flood)
Inflow Outflow
INDUS Tarbela 1500 169.0 178.2 170-185 Below Low 650
Kalabagh 950 219.9 214.9 No significant change -do- 650
Chashma 950 179.1 177.7 -do- -do- 650
Taunsa 1000 241.0 237.0 200-230 -do- 650
Guddu 1200 565.6 550.8 565 F 510 High 700
Sukkur 900 541.7 496.8 530-540 -do- 700
Kotri 850 832.6 820.7 830 F 790 Exceptionally High
to Very High
650
Kabul Nowshera - 46.4 46.4 40-45 Below Low 200
JHELUM Mangla 1060 42.8 43.0 35-45 -do- 225
Rasul 850 32.5 31.2 No significant change -do- 225
CHENAB Marala 1100 66.5 53.4 50-80 -do- 400
Khanki 800 48.7 42.2 No significant change -do- 400
Qadirabad 807 44.7 37.7 -do- -do- 400
Trimmu 645 118.4 113.2 -do- -do- 450
Punjnad 700 159.6 146.9 160-175 Low 450
RAVI Jassar 275 4.1 4.1 No significant change Below Low 150
Shahdara 250 8.2 8.2 -do- -do- 135
Balloki 225 26.5 0.0 -do- -do- 135
Sidhnai 150 26.7 13.7 -do- -do- 90
SUTLEJ G.S.Wala -- 11.0(feet) (Gauge only) -do- -do- 25.3 (Feet)
Sulemanki 325 35.9 22.9 -do- -do- 175
Islam 300 18.4 15.9 18-25 -do- 175
Isolated=20 to 30% of area
Scattered= 30 to 50% of area
Widespread= 90 to 100% of area
R= Rising
F= Falling
www.pakmet.com.pk (Flood Update)
Duty Officer 24 hrs. Phone: LHR 99200139, 99201238
99201244, 99205159
99205160
Dated:- 31st Aug, 2010
Time:- 09 :50 hours (PST)
(M. AKRAM ANJUM)
Chief Meteorologist
Ph. Office : 042-99200208
Fax: 042-99200209
DAMS POSITION (0600 PST)
TARBELA Level:- 1550.00 Feet
Max. Conservation Level: 1550.00 Feet
MANGLA Level:- 1206.00 Feet
Max Conservation Level: 1210.00 Feet
13. SOP FOR ISSUANCE OF FLOOD FORECAST FOR STAKEHOLDERS
CAT – I
3 - 5 LAC
Cusecs
FLOODS DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SW
& SE MONSOON CURRENTS
CAT – II
5 - 7 LAC
Cusecs
FLOODS DUE TO THE INDIRECT EFFECT OF
MONSOON DEPRESSION
CAT – III
ABOVE 7
LAC Cusecs
FLOODS DUE TO THE DIRECT EFFECT OF
MONSOON DEPRESSION
14. BLUE ALERT
YELLOW ALERT
RED ALERT
Depression at Rajhastan
Turning towards the catchment
Arrives in the catchments of
Eastern Rivers
SOPs Between PMD& Stakeholders for Mangla Dam
24. Dissemination of Flood Forecast as per SOPs
Fax Machines ( More than 200 Agencies)
Web service
SMS Service
Telephone Service
Electronic Media
(i) Tickers & Beepers on TV
(ii) Live & in Camera interviews
(iii) Live briefing about Disaster on TV in a Special
Transmission for disasters.
Print Media( daily Press Conference is conducted in the evening during Flood
disaster and others)
25. SMS Messenger
Duty Forecasting
Officer
Data Dissemination
Fax to National
Agencies
Fax to Provincial
Authorities
Fax to Media
Disaster Management Authorities
Federal & Provincial Relief Agencies
Print and Electronic Media
Internet & E-mail realtime transmission
26. Dissemination of Flood Forecast as per SOPs
Radio Pakistan and FM channels
E-mails to concerned with disasters
Coastal Radio (ASK)
27.
28.
29. Flood Forecast By Fax/Phone
S.No. Agency
1 Federal Minister, Water & Power, Islamabad
2 Chairman NDMA, P.M. House.
3 The Secretary Ministry of Defence
4 The Chairman/Chief Engineering Adviser,Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad.
5 The Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad.
6 The Secretary, Ministry of Water & Power Islambad.
7 The Sectretary, Planning Islamabad.
8 Emergency Relief Cell, Cabinet Division, Islamabad.
9 NPCC, WAPDA, Islamabad.
10 D.G.Met. S., Islamabad
11 Indus River System Authority, Islamabad.
12 Radio Pakistan, Islamabad.
13 PTV Director, Islamabad.
Region-Federal (Islamabad)
WEATHER / FLOOD FORECAST
TO