Brian Vad Mathiesen's presentation at The Lost Decade Conference, Aalborg University, 2019

1. The Smart Energy System: Sustainable Energy Systems can solve more
challenges than the Climate Crisis
Brian Vad Mathiesen; February 28 2019, Copenhagen, Aalborg University
Conference: The Lost Decade? Planning the Future, Plenary Keynote Session
@BrianVad

2. Energy System Challenges and opportunities Questions and strategic decisions
- Lower and lower Renewable Energy investment costs
(Electricity especially)
- Batteries are falling in price
- Electricity prices are falling (sign of system design failure) and
cannot merit investments in new capacity
- Power plants for back-up is closing down (lower operation
hours)
- How should we use and balance (energy storage) more
electricity from renewable energy?
- How should we re-design the energy system and how much
renewable energy is needed?
(sources: EnergyPLAN cost database)

3. Energy System Challenges and opportunities Questions and strategic decisions
- Electricity demands the smallest of the demands
- Both transport & heating/cooling demands larger
- Electricity grids are much more expensive than thermal
grids/gas grids (pr. capacity)
- Energy storages have different costs in different sectors and
different scales
- What are the role of the grids in the future
- How can energy storage be used across sectors to transform
all demands to renewable energy cost-effectively?
- How important are energy savings in the future and what is
the balance between electricity or heat savings compared to
renewable energy?
Cost of Heat
Savings
(€/kWh)
Amount of Savings (TWh)
Cost of Supplying
Heat
30-50%
Source: Mapping and
analyses of the current and
future heating-cooling fuel
deployment, DG Energy,
2016

4. Energy System Challenges and opportunities Questions and strategic decisions
- Bio-refinery technology is developing rapidly but bioenergy is a
limited resource and can have adverse effects outside the
energy sector
- Transport sector technologies are emerging fast
- What technologies are key for the transport sector?
- What is the role of bioenergy in future energy systems?
- New technologies may develop
- The international energy context is uncertain
- How can key Danish strength help on an international level
and what investments are robust in an uncertain future?

5. Biomass
Photo
Voltaics
Windpower
Danish Potentials
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Primary Energy Supply, PJ
Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet
Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport
40 YEARS OF ENERGY PLANNING AND
MARKET DESIGN
90
110
130
150
170
190
1980
'83
'86
'89
'92
'95
'98
'01
'04
'07
'10
Indeks
Energiforbrug Danmark
Danmark BNP
L O W C O N S U M P T I O N
L O W C O S T S
S E C U R I T Y O F S U P P L Y
L O W C O 2 - E M I S S I O N S

6. The long
term goal
Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
November 2006:
”We should have a Denmark free of fossil fuels like
oil, coal and natural gas”

7. • A cost-effective energy system
• A positive effect on the balance of payment
• Jobs and new companies
• A high security of supply (so far)
7
The results of 40 years of energy planning in Denmark
-50
0
50
100
150
1980
'81
'82
'83
'84
'85
'86
'87
'88
'89
'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
Energy import/export & balance of payment billion DKK
Olie Naturgas
Kul El
Biomasse Eksport af energiteknologi og -udstyr
Balance of payment
Energy import
Energy export
Self supply rate

8. Biomass consumption in Denmark
- Combined heat and power, boilers
Potentials not used
- 10 PJ wood
- 30 PJ straw
- 25 PJ biogas
+ energy crops
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2014
Biomass use in Denmark, PJ
Halm Skovflis Brænde
Træpiller Træaffald Affald, bionedbrydeligt
Bioolie Biogas Brænde - import
Skovflis - import Træpiller - import Bio-ethanol - import
Biodiesel - nettoimport
50 PJ import
B I O M A S S P O T E N T I A L
O P T I M I S T : 3 0 0 P J
P E S S I M I S T : 1 6 5 P J
R E A L I S T : 2 0 0 P J
4 0 G J B I O P R . C A P I T A I S
H I G H G L O B A L L Y

10. Three focus areas for buildings
STOP B EFORE
PA SSIVE
H OU SE
STAN DARDS

11. Download rapport:
www.EnergyPLAN.eu/IDA
Smart Energy Systems

12. Pump Hydro Storage
175 €/kWh
(Source: Electricity Energy Storage
Technology Options: A White Paper
Primer on Applications, Costs, and
Benefits. Electric Power Research
Institute, 2010)
Natural Gas Underground Storage
0.05 €/kWh
(Source: Current State Of and Issues
Concerning Underground Natural Gas
Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 2004)
Oil Tank
0.02 €/kWh
(Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking
Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage
Tank. 2013)
Thermal Storage
1-4 €/kWh
(Source: Danish Technology
Catalogue, 2012)

13. Heat energy storage 6200 m3 Thermal
Storage
2500 €/MWh
(Skagen: 6200 m3
for 5.4 mio. DKK)
0.16 m3 Thermal Storage
300.000 €/MWh
(Private house: 160 liter
for 15000 DKK)
200,000 m3 Thermal Storage
500 €/MWh
(Vojens: 200,000 m3
for 30 mio. DKK)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3
Price(€/MWh)
Thermal storage: Price
and Size
4 m3 Thermal Storage
40,000 €/MWh
(Private outdoor: 4000 m3
for 50,000 DKK)

14. HOW TO USE STORAGES LONG TERM..
• Three crucial grids in Smart Energy Systems
• Smart electricity grids
• Smart thermal grids
• Smart gas grids
• High capacity electrolyses (Power-to-gas)
• More district heating and district cooling
• Large heat pumps with high capacity (Power-to-heat)
• CHP, solar thermal, etc.
• Electricity storage in transport (batteries and electrofuels)
• Production of green gasses and synthetic fuels
W W W . S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U

15. STATE-OF-THE-ART-KNOWLEDGE ON
100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IN 2050
Savings in Energy
Demand
Efficiency
improvements in
energy
production
Renewable
energy sources
(RES)
F L E X I B L E
T E C H N O L O G I E S
I N T E G R A T E D
E N E R G Y
S Y S T E M S

16. Heat Roadmap Europe Methodology
GIS Mapping
(could be another technology, resource,
etc)
District Heating
Demands
District Heating
Resources
Energy System Modelling
(www.EnergyPLAN.eu)
BAU
(References)
District Heating
Alternatives
Results (PES,
CO2, Costs)

17. 50% of the heat demand in
Europe can be supplied with
district heating
(www.HeatRoadmap.eu)
KEY ROLE
FOR CITIES

18. Proven Technology!
Renewable Energy vs. District Heating
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0% 20% 40% 60%
RenewableEnergyShareinHeating&
Cooling(%)
District Heating Share (%)
Austria Belgium
Bulgaria Croatia
Cyprus Czech Republic
Denmark Estonia
Finland France
Germany Greece
Hungary Ireland
Italy Latvia
Lithuania Luxembourg
Malta Netherlands
Poland Portugal
Romania Slovak Republic
Slovenia Spain
Sweden United Kingdom

19. Today’s Heat Demand from Peta 4.2 (www.heatroadmap.eu)
London
<5% DH
Copenhagen
>90% DH 
Roma
<5% DH
Bucharest
~75% DH 
Heat Demand
Densities 2015

20. Case Study: Middlesbrough,
UK (350,000 People)
Heat Demand
Suitable for DH
10 PJ/Year
Excess Heat
35 PJ/Year
WP2: Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu
10 km

21. Heat synergies map in PETA4
example: Netherlands
• Heat demands: 296 PJ/y
• Excess heat: 560 PJ/y
• District heating share: 5%
• Renewable energy in heating:
3%
- Not a Technical barrier to
improve energy efficiency

22. SmartEnergySystem:
ThermalStorage
Mobility
(Partly)
Flexible
Electricity
Cooling
Heating
Solar etc.
Bioenergy
Fuels
Combined
Heat & Power
Power
Exchange
Resources Conversion Demands
Heat Pump
Fluctuating
Heat
Fluctuating
Electricity
Thermal
Storage
Wind etc.
Fuel Storage
Electric
Vehicles
Electrofuels
Combustion
Engines
Electricity
Storage

23. • 100% is possible technically and feasible
• Future need to focus on transmission
between the sectors instead of only
between countries
• A flexible system is robust with regards to
costs and biomass consumption. It uses
storages intelligently
• It provides
• more jobs
• lower health costs than fossil fuel systems
• better balance of payments
• better security of supply
Coherent 2050 analyses

24. W W W . E N E R G Y P L A N . E U
W W W . H E A T R O A D M A P . E U
W W W . S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U
W W W . 4 D H . D K
W W W . R E I N V E S T P R O J E C T . E U
State of GreenState of Green